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Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...


I'm doubling down that some version of this is correct. Anyone think tonight is good or bad evidence of a similar plot?



Oiled and Ready posted:

Tightened up my crazy conspiracy theory:

Consider: Cruz and Trump met on July 15th, when Roger Stone was still Trump advisor. Stone believes every establishment candidate is a plant for Bush, backup plan Rubio. Trump says he "doesn't even know why they're meeting", despite knowing Cruz and donating to his PAC in 2014.

They meet at least 5 more times privately and have a phone repartee. At one point, they planned dual events, but decided better of it.

They both then only ever discuss illegal immigration, Common Core, political corruption and wall street influence on Washington despite two of those being relatively weak issues for Ted considering the birther issue and loans. These things KILL Bush/Rubio though. Trump mentioned the "natural born" thing ONCE in March and not till the two broke off recently ever again.

Their big fight stifled any consensus establishment rise for the past month, with Trump guilty of essentially being too much like Reagan and Cruz being guilty of not compromising -so damning to their bases! :rolleyes:

Cruz can't ever win the nomination with the natural born attack available. Even if that was off the table, he doesn't have a path and he knows it. If he is VP nominee, even if he loses in the general, he can clear it up in courts and position himself for 2020 or 2024.

Cruz does great internal polling which he could share with Trump. Cruz spent most of his money on Rubio in the last few days in Iowa, to many people's puzzlement. Since, Trump and Cruz have soaked up the airtime and avoided Rubio, both of them actively derailing the Rubio storyline on Television with accusations of fraud and rebuttals, until suddenly Trump stopped the attacks entirely. Today, he's back to saying he would consider Cruz for VP.

Trump still dismisses the need for internal polling. He knows this was a big boon for Cruz in Iowa. It doesn't add up. People think Trump attacked Cruz because he got big but I bet Trump had Cruz internal polling showing the December Rubio surge was less of a dud than reported.

Rubio began his first surge according to media headlines December 10th. Trump and Cruz ended their bromance the 12th when Trump first attacked Cruz. So they have both quelled a Rubio surge at their own expense, one each, as soon as it began, then gotten in a media tiff to bring the spotlight on BOTH OF THEM and not Rubio.

I'm pretty much married to this. Interesting to see if future results prove i was just backframing it, but if this pattern holds to SC I'll be sure, myself.


Edit: for extra tinfoil, add Carson to the team, with the November feud with Trump stifling yet ANOTHER failed Rubio surge. Now, Trump defends Carson from Ted, all 3 being complicit in the "fraud", leaving Carson the option to endorse Trump despite the terrible attacks in November. He's honest, at least, and defends justice, or some other sleepy Ben bullshit.



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Despera
Jun 6, 2011
Whats the Trump University Mascot? The Fighting Toupee?

memy
Oct 15, 2011

by exmarx

HyperPuma posted:

i just wish christie had responded with "there you go again"

He did on number three

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
I watched Rubio die.

I was there.

I watched him overstump, and choke to death.

I could have saved him.

But I didn't.

*Rince Preibus goes slack and is dragged away by Trump supporters*

Vile
Aug 28, 2005

by Nyc_Tattoo

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

I watched Rubio die.

I was there.

I watched him overstump, and choke to death.

I could have saved him.

But I didn't.

*Rince Preibus goes slack and is dragged away by Trump supporters*

lol

InsanityIsCrazy
Jan 25, 2003

by Lowtax

Oil! posted:

If only we could pick arbitrary dates for a "S&P Index" start point and end point, we could determine the range of how well that would do.

I agree that is the safe bet, but even getting close to that as a real estate business shows some sort of skill. This skill TRUMP would require great TRUMP knowlege. I TRUMP know personally TRUMP that the TRUMP S&P Index can TRUMP extremely variable TRUMP on a sub-2 year TRUMP basis.

That TRUMP is TRUMP why TRUMP I TRUMP try TRUMP to TRUMP diversify TRUMP.

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP .

:agreed:

https://www.facebook.com/washingtonpost/videos/10153540862822293/

Tim Burns Effect
Apr 1, 2011


i legit thought someone had edited the clip to loop Rubio's speech until Christie started talking over him. Holy gently caress. he's DONE

memy
Oct 15, 2011

by exmarx
If republicans were mad at Christie after Sandy, what will they say about him killing their chances in the general in a span of seven minutes tonight?

Fiction
Apr 28, 2011
What were the ratings like for this debate? Could throw the GOP establishment for a loop 4 days out when it was actually looking like their boy could pull ahead.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
Also Sorry TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost

Despera posted:

We really defending Trumps business record? If he had kept all his daddys money and put it in the S&P to adjust for inflation, hed be richer now.

That said, Trump (and everyone in his class) has enough money to do... anything, really. Trump might "only" have like one billion dollars, but in terms of converting wealth into fame, he's really pretty amazing.

kitten emergency
Jan 13, 2008

get meow this wack-ass crystal prison
Most of the reaction I've seen to Rubio's thing is coming from Democrats or other vaguely liberal mouthpieces. Not really sure it's gonna hurt ol' Thirsty too much in the conservative bubble.

InsanityIsCrazy
Jan 25, 2003

by Lowtax
oh are we legit back to trumpchat? Let me get my robe

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

uncurable mlady posted:

Most of the reaction I've seen to Rubio's thing is coming from Democrats or other vaguely liberal mouthpieces. Not really sure it's gonna hurt ol' Thirsty too much in the conservative bubble.

From Josh Marshall TPM:

quote:

The big question is whether this Rubio stumble will kill his momentum or just be a running gag for political obsessives that doesn't blunt all the strong pressures to coalesce behind a plausible general election candidate.
I think it's probably the latter.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
I mean if you ask the average schlub to name "someone rich", Donald Trump is going to come up statistically far more often than much, much richer people. He branded wealth. He sucks butthole but he's good at one thing: getting attention.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011

uncurable mlady posted:

Most of the reaction I've seen to Rubio's thing is coming from Democrats or other vaguely liberal mouthpieces. Not really sure it's gonna hurt ol' Thirsty too much in the conservative bubble.

Panel Gangs Up on Marco Rubio

http://mediamatters.org/video/2016/02/06/watch-fox-news-panel-savage-rubios-robotic-deba/208419

Pompous Rhombus
Mar 11, 2007

Patter Song posted:

At a certain point in this race I stopped wondering "This guy is a brilliant neurosurgeon?" and started wondering "This guy can dress and feed himself?" about the illustrious Dr. Carson. Every day he gets more and more pathetic. His performance tonight would've been career-ending if he were actually still relevant.

Carson's support does not and has never come from having a substantive position on the issues or his skill as an orator. He's seen as a Smart Guy thanks to his background in neurosurgery (which will never be called into question in a debate), and an uncorruptable Good Guy, who happens to have an (R) next to his name and make all of the noises that the Republican orthodoxy expects.

He stayed on message tonight by continuously taking the high road wrt Cruz ratfuckery in Iowa, and continued to promote the Ben Carson brand. I predict bumper sales on the upcoming book tour.


lmao

Chemtrailologist
Jul 8, 2007

The Nastier Nate posted:

In Trump's defense, several casino's in Atlantic City have gone bankrupt, and they weren't all Trump's. 20 years ago, the only places you could legally play blackjack in this country were AC, Vegas and Indian casinos. Now just every state in the northeast has casino's as nice as in Atlantic City, and they have free parking and the best part is, for me anyway, is that I don't have to drive 2 hours to the Jersey shore, but rather 10 minutes outside Philadelphia. There are a lot of lovely business ventures that Trump has been involved in that deserve to be called out (Trump steaks, Trump University) but I wouldn't include his casino failures as one of them.

One of the best moments from the first debate is Trump pretty much calling New Jersey an economic shithole then the camera moves to Christie who just stands there not disagreeing.

Vile
Aug 28, 2005

by Nyc_Tattoo

InsanityIsCrazy
Jan 25, 2003

by Lowtax
lookey lookey he got hookeyd

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe

Mitt Romney posted:

From Josh Marshall TPM:

I think it's probably the latter.

It's a good question.

Luckily for us, we'll have pretty rapid gratification. We'll get a good idea on Tuesday whether or not this has damaged him. If Rubio manages to come in third on Tuesday, he is utterly screwed.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
Rubio is getting killed by a bunch of Rubio supporters on the National Review

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/430906/marco-rubio-and-chris-christies-brutal-exchange

Oil!
Nov 5, 2008

Der's e'rl in dem der hills!


Ham Wrangler

InsanityIsCrazy posted:

oh are we legit back to trumpchat? Let me get my robe

TRUMP I TRUMP can't TRUMP continue TRUMP on TRUMP in TRUMP this TRUMP non-great TRUMP country TRUMP.

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

Scott Forstall
Aug 16, 2003

MMM THAT FAUX LEATHER

Mitt Romney posted:

From Josh Marshall TPM:

I think it's probably the latter.

The problem is he has basically 48 hours before the vote and tomorrow will be drowned out by super bowl chatter and any Google search for those that didn't watch tonight will be overflowing with the "4 times" video. That leaves a quick Monday to stem any bleeding and that's not enough time. Rubio had his chance in the spotlight and blew it. Last minute undecideds and people-formerly-known-as-jeb!-supporters will trend away from Rubio.

His 3-2-1 plan is in serious jeopardy after his performance tonight.

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

Mitt Romney posted:

From Josh Marshall TPM:

I think it's probably the latter.

Edit: guy above me gets it. This ain't iowa.

In most states, you're right. But it's New Hampshire. This will kill him, no question. He can recover but not in NH. Ton of independents vote, people are a bit more engaged, their media locally is more strident.

The only way this hurts him going forward is i think it'll kill his 3-2-1 excuse for being the only nominee in recent history to lose the first two states.

Plus, as I've explained, ever since Trump had the balls to do Alex Jones drudge has backed him. Expect drudge to link all these articles, and even middle-aged tech-newb conservatives read drudge.

InsanityIsCrazy
Jan 25, 2003

by Lowtax

Oil! posted:

TRUMP I TRUMP can't TRUMP continue TRUMP on TRUMP in TRUMP this TRUMP non-great TRUMP country TRUMP.

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

Trumpthulhu F'tagn

kitten emergency
Jan 13, 2008

get meow this wack-ass crystal prison

Eh, probably doesn't help. Like I alluded to earlier, the real danger to Rubio is that his support seems soft in many areas. That said, where would it go? Kasich/Christie/Jeb would be my guess, but I don't see it splitting evenly even if it does ebb away.

In recent memory, NH polls seem highly predictive of the eventual winner but that winner underperforms in the voting relative to their polls. That puts the racist at +10, and I think the LV screen is probably hosed on Trump voters anyway, which means we could see a maximum hilarity result of a field that remains highly divided with no single candidate walking away a clear winner from NH.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Let's dispel this fiction once and for all that I did not graduate the top of my class in the Navy Seals, and that I’ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I know exactly what I am doing - I am trained in gorilla warfare and I’m the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another systematic effort to change this country and make America more like the rest of the world. If I'm elected I will wipe you the gently caress out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my loving words. You think you can get away with saying that poo poo to me over the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You’re loving dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable rear end off the face of the continent, you little poo poo. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your loving tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will poo poo fury all over you and you will drown in it. I will embrace what makes America the greatest country in the world. You’re loving dead, kiddo.

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

uncurable mlady posted:

Eh, probably doesn't help. Like I alluded to earlier, the real danger to Rubio is that his support seems soft in many areas. That said, where would it go? Kasich/Christie/Jeb would be my guess, but I don't see it splitting evenly even if it does ebb away.

In recent memory, NH polls seem highly predictive of the eventual winner but that winner underperforms in the voting relative to their polls. That puts the racist at +10, and I think the LV screen is probably hosed on Trump voters anyway, which means we could see a maximum hilarity result of a field that remains highly divided with no single candidate walking away a clear winner from NH.

Literally 60 seconds after that exchange i dumped 50 bucks into 2c for nomination Christie and 50 into 8c Kasich. And 50 more into Rubio "NO".

I can't see how I don't turn a profit. To guess Tuesday:

1. TRUMP
2. Kasich
3. Cruz
4. Rubio
5. Christie

Vile
Aug 28, 2005

by Nyc_Tattoo

kitten emergency
Jan 13, 2008

get meow this wack-ass crystal prison

Oiled and Ready posted:

Literally 60 seconds after that exchange i dumped 50 bucks into 2c for nomination Christie and 50 into 8c Kasich. And 50 more into Rubio "NO".

I can't see how I don't turn a profit. To guess Tuesday:

1. TRUMP
2. Kasich
3. Cruz
4. Rubio
5. Christie

As someone who gambles on football, seek help.

That said, Kasich definitely has a path to the top 3. Not sure if that will help him stay alive after losing big in Iowa. He's most likely this cycle's Arkane.

Vile
Aug 28, 2005

by Nyc_Tattoo

uncurable mlady posted:

As someone who gambles on football, seek help.

That said, Kasich definitely has a path to the top 3. Not sure if that will help him stay alive after losing big in Iowa. He's most likely this cycle's Arkane.

Correct me infirm wrong but KASICH and Christie don't actually have to get the nomination right? Ifmtheirnoddsmimprovemyouncann sell those shares right? Makes it a much smarter play

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

CortezFantastic posted:

You learn zero lessons from how the GOP works. Reality means nothing. Messaging is all that matters. Just simply repeating something over and over makes it the truth eventually. People in this very forum believe old tired Clinton lies simply because they were constant pounded on until they were truth.

Trump couldn't make money at a business that is rigged for the house. WHAT A LOSER

Sort of, but they couldn't stop net neutrality and Trump did all he could to get people to watch this debate and distrust FOX and trust Drudge and also to notice Marco sweating.


6 months of Trump hammering 10 different points that nullify the media and GOPe messaging, every. Single. Debate. And rally. And interview.

I think it's enough in NH. in the south, the GOPe did his work for him by painting him as a racist uncontrollabe Hitler. They all are thinking, "FINALLY!"

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

uncurable mlady posted:

As someone who gambles on football, seek help.

That said, Kasich definitely has a path to the top 3. Not sure if that will help him stay alive after losing big in Iowa. He's most likely this cycle's Arkane.

It's a stock market. I don't expect them to win. Just that Christie now has over a 2% chance and Kasich an 8% chance, I'll sell before SC.

kitten emergency
Jan 13, 2008

get meow this wack-ass crystal prison

Vile posted:

Correct me infirm wrong but KASICH and Christie don't actually have to get the nomination right? Ifmtheirnoddsmimprovemyouncann sell those shares right? Makes it a much smarter play

Well, assuming you can get out of your position in time. Probably worth it if we get another round of polls and Kasich or Christie gets a bump.

Pretty sure there's a thread for this though.

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe
Does anyone have that New Hampshire poll from this morning with the share of voters for each candidate who were locked in vs leaning to that candidate? The one that said that over half of Rubio's NH support was just leaning to him and not solidly committed?

kitten emergency
Jan 13, 2008

get meow this wack-ass crystal prison

Oiled and Ready posted:

It's a stock market. I don't expect them to win. Just that Christie now has over a 2% chance and Kasich an 8% chance, I'll sell before SC.

You know, I never really looked at predictit before this and now I'm thinking I might have a new and exciting way to lose money.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

Patter Song posted:

Does anyone have that New Hampshire poll from this morning with the share of voters for each candidate who were locked in vs leaning to that candidate? The one that said that over half of Rubio's NH support was just leaning to him and not solidly committed?

People who are saying "the media will overlook it, doesn't matter" are missing this.

The one nerd at the super bowl party tomorrow will show them this because 'check out this rear end in a top hat, wrecked by New Jersey reality freight train!" And it'll snowball.


The superbowl makes this worse, not better, for Rubio. As i said before the debate, it's New Hampshire and people have 20 minutes to shoot poo poo while Coldplay is on mute..

Actually, come to think of it, Coldplay could cost Rubio the presidency. Hmmmmm. "When you try your best but you don't succeed"

THREAD TITLE SUGGESTION: Marco, I will try...to fix you

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Unzip and Attack
Mar 3, 2008

USPOL May
Jesus H. Christ Rubio got absolutely dismantled by Christie. Which is weird because Rubio seems like the most eloquent of the candidates- but when he repeated that poo poo about Obama's policies being deliberate for the 3rd time, he just walked into a drat sawblade. Hard to watch.

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