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Rep. John Flemming (R) will run for Vitter's seat. He represents the 4th district, which comprises most of the NW part of the state. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKHqqbp4SsA
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Dec 7, 2015 19:21
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Dec 11, 2015 22:13
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just to bump this thread i'm watching a unlv basketball game, where their home court is named after jerry tarkanian, and remembered that his son danny is a perennial losing candidate in republican nevada politics, including failing to defeat sharron angle in the 2010 senate primary there's been a little bit of poo poo going on - not too much. various fuckres are in the louisiana senate race, one of the democratic candidates for california is spending her campaign money on fancy bullshit and the other is demonizing muslims, i dunno that's all i can think of right now. its fun, kinda there's some vague chance that enough republicans will run for la-sen that the two democrats in the race end up with the two highest %s and the runoff election will be between two candidates from the minority party, which happened to the gop's favor in a ~57% obama house of representatives district in california in 2012, but probably not let's be honest (lbh) next year i'll make a house of representatives thread if nobody else does oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 06:19 on Dec 17, 2015 |
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Dec 17, 2015 06:16
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where do you go for news on senate races? even following local reporters is tough on the senate side, given how much land the races cover and how little news there is/how much stuff needs to be filtered out. I tried following some of the LA news twitter accounts - the advocate, etc - during the gov election and it was non-stop LSU football news, etc. and the senate race gets a tenth of the coverage. any recommended websites, twitter accounts, etc?
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Dec 17, 2015 08:41
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Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzalez Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Those are the big three ratings sites and, along with Daily Kos Elections for day to day stuff, are all you need if all you care about is who wins a senate majority. Be warned, they won't really be updating the state of every race every day, indeed, the first three won't be doing it every month right now, but thats more or less because there really just isn't much worth writing about this early on. edit: And don't worry about DKE's political bias, they actual DKE staff is really realistic about its party's chances in any given race, though promoted diaries can often have some bullshit in them. Before being absorbed by Daily Kos they were Swing State Project, which also was specifically pro-Democratic but not a propaganda farm. The site's rightwing equivalent, Red Racing Horses, is okay I guess but way more biased in its predictions. I don't think they were into "unskewing" polls last time around but they've definitely said some questionable poo poo in the past. Cliff Racer has issued a correction as of 08:55 on Dec 17, 2015 |
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Dec 17, 2015 08:52
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i like daily kos elections' daily digest. it's very informative. rrh elections would be better if their web site wasn't so lovely, i read it for a while but there wasn't too much they covered that dke didn't also dke does a lot of good work getting stats and maps together too, that's more relevant for the house and the state legislative elections though
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Dec 18, 2015 00:14
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Cliff Racer posted:Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzalez Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball oystertoadfish posted:i like daily kos elections' daily digest. it's very informative. rrh elections would be better if their web site wasn't so lovely, i read it for a while but there wasn't too much they covered that dke didn't also these are great, thanks guys. DKE is the winner also, not senate, but lmao at the first article I found on today's DKE digest about a TX house race: http://www.texastribune.org/2015/12/17/another-ruben-hinojosa-could-shake-us-house-race/ classic small district games
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Dec 18, 2015 16:48
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Lexington Mayor Jim Gray files to challenge Rand Paul. He's rich so could partially self-fund, but he's also openly gay which...I don't live in Kentucky but doesn't seem like it would do much to endear him to the voting base there, although I'd be happy to hear from the Kentucky goons ITT.
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Jan 26, 2016 17:08
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Considering who they just elected Governor, and the whole Kim Davis fiasco, he's facing an uphill battle
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Jan 26, 2016 18:30
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FlamingLiberal posted:Considering who they just elected Governor, and the whole Kim Davis fiasco, he's facing an uphill battle They elected Bevin because of a 30% turnout rate; plus, isn't Jack Conway like universally hated?
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Jan 26, 2016 19:46
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Alter Ego posted:They elected Bevin because of a 30% turnout rate; plus, isn't Jack Conway like universally hated? Yeah, people hate Bevin too, though. A lot of it was that the campaign became so negative almost nobody except the homophobes showed up. Like Conway won Louisville by a waaayyy lower margin than he should have, and he also refused to ever do retail politics because he was convinced it was all about money. Jim Gray is incredibly popular in the actual city of Lexington. He won re-election in a landslide and Louisville is one of the most gay-friendly cities in the South (The percentage of our population that's openly gay is higher than New York or LA and 11th in the nation.) No Democrat has any chance in the South-Central part of the state or NKY outside of Covington so his path to victory is exciting the liberal base in Louisville and Lexington while getting the traditional Democrats who are turning red in Eastern Kentucky and the Purchase to look past his homosexuality and come back into the fold. It's not ideal but in this political climate, no Democrat will have an easy time. If we're going to lose we might as well lose without pretending to be Republican-lite. Rand Paul isn't in a position of complete strength. He's not as popular at home as people in Washington and the East Coast pretend, and his Presidential campaign has opened himself to attacks that he does not care about the people of Kentucky beyond using the state as a stepping stone, something he is already vulnerable to as a non-native who moved here in his 20s (Kentucky is one of the most regionalist states there is) and a Duke graduate (I do not need to explain this one.) He still has the undeniable advantages of being from a different party than Obama and having regular sex with a woman. BIG FLUFFY DOG has issued a correction as of 21:21 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 20:04
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Alter Ego posted:They elected Bevin because of a 30% turnout rate; plus, isn't Jack Conway like universally hated? Yeah, a whole bunch of liberals were apathetic about Conway for a variety of reasons. The moderates were pissed at his lovely handling of the gas monopoly issue as AG, the greens were pissed that he had a 40 page endorsement of coal on his campaign website, and no one was actually excited for him. Plus the polls were probably off because a bunch of Republican voters said they would never vote for Bevin because of how crazy he is, but showed up and voted Republican like they always do anyways.
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Jan 26, 2016 22:00
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Yeah, people hate Bevin too, though. A lot of it was that the campaign became so negative almost nobody except the homophobes showed up. Like Conway won Louisville by a waaayyy lower margin than he should have, and he also refused to ever do retail politics because he was convinced it was all about money. I honestly wonder how it would go if a candidate ran a Bernie Sanders-style economic populist campaign in a state like Kentucky. We've already seen people respond to that on a national level--and the appeal actually crosses party lines in some cases. Talk about health care and income inequality--emphasize that the game is rigged to screw people who work for a living. People would respond to that. I think if Gray's going to win, that's how he'll do it. Act like a liberal, not just a Democrat. Don't make the race about getting rid of Rand Paul and replacing him with a Democrat, because that'll just trigger the tribalism reflex voters in Kentucky have. Make it about a guy who doesn't give a poo poo about the state vs. a guy who genuinely wants to do good by the people who elected him.
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Jan 26, 2016 22:10
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from what kentuckian goon friends tell me, conway couldn't win an election if his mother was the only voter and only got into the AG office off of beshear's coattails
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Jan 26, 2016 22:57
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FlamingLiberal posted:Considering who they just elected Governor, and the whole Kim Davis fiasco, he's facing an uphill battle Any national election in Kentucky is going to be an uphill battle for Democrats. Don't need somone you expect to win (you're not going to get it), you need someone who can keep it close and capitalize if the Republican starts talking about legitimate rape or something similar.
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Jan 26, 2016 23:18
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Yeah, people hate Bevin too, though. A lot of it was that the campaign became so negative almost nobody except the homophobes showed up. Like Conway won Louisville by a waaayyy lower margin than he should have, and he also refused to ever do retail politics because he was convinced it was all about money. Sadly, Rand's time at Duke didn't overlap much with Christian Laettner's career with the Devils, so the chance for an endorsement from him is wasted. Coach K is a pretty big GOP fundraiser/donor, though...Gray could probably get an endorsement from Calipari, hell maybe Rick Pitino could record a 15-second spot.
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Jan 26, 2016 23:54
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This is a cute discussion and all but you really do need to have a perfect storm of "bad R presidential candidate + good D presidential candidate +Rand doing something dumb" to even get close. Looking out right now this race is about as plausible as Colorado senate, which is to say not very.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:21
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Cliff Racer posted:Looking out right now this race is about as plausible as Colorado senate, which is to say not very. Sorry, not sure what you mean here - are you saying Colorado is looking plausible for the Dems or the Republicans? I haven't really heard anything about it either way and most places seem to be rating it as lean Democratic
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Jan 27, 2016 01:56
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Bob Ojeda posted:Sorry, not sure what you mean here - are you saying Colorado is looking plausible for the Dems or the Republicans? I haven't really heard anything about it either way and most places seem to be rating it as lean Democratic Its incredibly likely that it stays in Democratic hands. At this point most of the question seems to be whether the Republicans can get a good, but damaged, unknown and underfunded candidate out of the race to keep things close or whether they get a lovely and damaged, unknown and underfunded candidate out of the race who'll drag down the rest of the ticket in that state.
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Jan 27, 2016 02:54
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Cliff Racer posted:Its incredibly likely that it stays in Democratic hands. At this point most of the question seems to be whether the Republicans can get a good, but damaged, unknown and underfunded candidate out of the race to keep things close or whether they get a lovely and damaged, unknown and underfunded candidate out of the race who'll drag down the rest of the ticket in that state. Thanks for the clarification!
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Jan 27, 2016 03:20
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:from what kentuckian goon friends tell me, conway couldn't win an election if his mother was the only voter and only got into the AG office off of beshear's coattails This is unfortunately true. He managed to lose a house race running as a Democrat in motherfucking Louisville.
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Jan 27, 2016 03:27
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:and having regular sex with a woman. Lets not go around assuming things Also there is still not a presumptive candidate in Iowa to challenge The Old Man and His Tweets, but the wikipedia page has a few suggestions: quote:Former State Senator Tom Fiegen and current State Senator Rob Hogg are running for the Democratic nomination. Other potential Democratic candidates include former State Representative and current president of Veterans National Recovery Center Bob Krause, US Agriculture Secretary and former Governor Tom Vilsack, U.S. Representative Dave Loebsack, former First Lady and 2012 IA-04 nominee Christie Vilsack, Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal, former Governor Chet Culver, and retired NFL quarterback Kyle Orton. 
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Jan 27, 2016 19:03
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This needs to happen. Mostly because a guy named Hogg can't be Senator next to a woman who castrated them for a living. Also, there is a preponderance of people running for that seat with last names ending in "-sack".
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Jan 27, 2016 19:11
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Alter Ego posted:This needs to happen. Well, two of them are married (i'll let you guess which two), so the -sack proliferation makes a little more sense. "Vilsack, Loebsack, Vilsack, all running for the Democrat Seat against Senator Grassley. Well Iowa, you know what I do with sacks" - Jodi Ernst (in my head) (hire me to write your campaign Jodi i totally won't drown it in a pool of blood pinky promise) Also, if Orton ran he'd totally get hit with questions about why he abandoned Iowa to play at Purdue, never mind that Purdue had a billion times better chance of landing a QB in the NFL (see also: Brees, Drew)
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Jan 27, 2016 19:22
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Despite being a crazy old man Grassley is also is one of the highest liked by his constituents senators in the country, good like getting him out in anything other than a hearse.
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Jan 28, 2016 03:08
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Elijah Cummings not running for MD-Sen. And Maryland goons have a sense of whether Edwards or Van Hollen has the leg up?
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Feb 3, 2016 00:01
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WaPo says they're tied: https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...a902_story.html Reading the article, Edwards seems to be on the upswing. Which makes me happy.
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Feb 3, 2016 01:05
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Cummings not running is good news for Edwards, they would have split the black vote. But I thought that I also heard that her campaign was doing poorly money-wise or wasn't airing ads like it should have been. Something to that effect.
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Feb 3, 2016 01:07
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Franco Potente posted:Elijah Cummings not running for MD-Sen. And Maryland goons have a sense of whether Edwards or Van Hollen has the leg up? Too far away to say at this point. According to the most recent survey they are pretty much within the margin of error of each other. Van Hollen currently has the better fundraising advantage. The primary isn't until April 26th, so there is still plenty of time for Edwards to gain ground.
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Feb 3, 2016 01:17
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edwards hasn't released her Q4 fundraising report but on her Q3 she said she had $368K cash on hand. van hollen's Q4 report says he has $3.67M cash on hand. i bet edwards would've released her report by now if it showed her gaining on him media in the dc market is expensive but i think i've seen poo poo indicating that the returns on a fundraising advantage diminish pretty quickly. it's only really predictive when you've got one candidate raising real money and the other one raising nothing it's pretty early though and polls aren't showing one of them as way stronger than the other
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Feb 3, 2016 01:52
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Just got push-polled by Patrick Murphy's FL Senate campaign. Gonna be a fun year!
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Feb 10, 2016 03:04
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I don't expect Jim Gray to oust Rand Paul. Here in Kentucky we're finally catching up to the Reagan-era realignment, with movement conservatism thoroughly flipping a lot of deep-blue constituencies over the past 10-15 years (particularly the past 8). Won't be long until Republican identity is as ingrained and tribal as it is elsewhere in the South. I'm from one of those notorious "80% of residents are registered Democrats, votes 80% Republican in national elections" counties and know people are pretty intractable about it. Still, I'm cool with Gray's candidacy because, while he is not perfect (or, hell, even very good), he is significantly less bad than the last two people we nominated for major elections in the Commonwealth, and can carry the standard credibly. That matters for turnout, which is important down-ballot even if the up-ballot race is hopeless.
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Feb 11, 2016 15:40
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so Edwards's fundraising report came out and she's still got like a tenth of what van hollen has. also one of the ca sen gop candidates dropped out, i think there are two of them left in, making it slightly less likely that the Republican minority will split their votes in the all party primary election and allow the two Democrats Harris and Sanchez through to the top two round in November Democrats will probably lose the Kentucky state House this year but apparently there wasn't a wave of democrat incumbent retirements like some people had feared so the dam has not obviously broken yet, at least. probably their best chance for 2018 is an unpopular Republican president, but in that scenario they probably lose the majority this year
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Feb 11, 2016 18:13
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someone posted in USPOL that Blunt in MO is loving his race up royally by apparently having lied about his draft status during the vietnam war. Would be interesting if that turns to a Dem pickup
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Feb 11, 2016 18:50
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Riptor posted:someone posted in USPOL that Blunt in MO is loving his race up royally by apparently having lied about his draft status during the vietnam war. Would be interesting if that turns to a Dem pickup Is there even anyone to run against him? Nixon's pretty unpopular in Missouri right now if I recall correctly.
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Feb 11, 2016 18:52
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Alter Ego posted:Is there even anyone to run against him? Nixon's pretty unpopular in Missouri right now if I recall correctly. Jason Kander, the Secretary of State, who interestingly is also the youngest statewide elected official in America, at age 34
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Feb 11, 2016 18:54
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oystertoadfish posted:
I think right now the Kentucky Democratic Party's strategy is to stick their heads in the sand and hope that the Bevin administration self-destructs and takes the state Republican party with it for a while, like what happened with the last Republican governor, Ernie Fletcher. Which, hell, might happen. They've already caved to Bevin and the state Senate on a number of things (most prominently an informed-consent law for abortions), so any hope that they would learn the right lessons from 2015 seems like a non-starter. Mostly they just seem kinda hapless without a popular central figure like Beshear, Patton or Wendell Ford to rally around, which is something the state party has always had but currently lacks. 2015 took out the closest thing* to a next-gen Beshear among elected politicians (former state auditor Adam Edelen), while such a figure is unlikely to arise among the party's donor and operator classes because those guys are all fossils who have not psychologically adapted to life in the modern South. *I know there's a literal next-gen Beshear but he has maybe a fifth of his dad's skill as a campaigner, and is as-yet untested as a governing official.
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Feb 11, 2016 23:03
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Alter Ego posted:Is there even anyone to run against him? Nixon's pretty unpopular in Missouri right now if I recall correctly. Arooooooo? / 
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Feb 12, 2016 00:45
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kander's an afghanistan vet too iirc obviously kerry was a vietnam vet and couldn't get the vietnam-era cowardice charge to stick so i guess it comes down to whether people in missouri will look at kander and say 'yeah that guy's a war hero and the person he's calling out must be a coward' kander seems to get respect in the poo poo i read. he might be a good enough politician to win a red state in only a slightly favorable democratic election - as opposed to the types who need a historic goldwater-type wave and who can't leverage incumbency to survive in less favorable elections. so that's more than nothing but it's really a lot like talking about prospects in sports, there's very little information and even if information were perfect the way the guy develops in the future can only be guessed at PupsOfWar posted:I think right now the Kentucky Democratic Party's strategy is to stick their heads in the sand and hope that the Bevin administration self-destructs and takes the state Republican party with it for a while, like what happened with the last Republican governor, Ernie Fletcher. Which, hell, might happen. hell, it might work. pretty much the definition of a short-term solution lundergan grimes has the stench of high-profile failure about her but she did win her statewide election last year right? and her big loss was in a republican wave year. if she gets lucky the next time she shoots for a promotion, maybe all of a sudden the ky democratic party has a standard-bearer again it is odd how there are some people like beshear who can sell (some) democratic policies in the south, but most people just can't pull it off oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 05:51 on Feb 12, 2016 |
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Feb 12, 2016 05:43
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what rhymes with Allison Lundergan Grimes? I remember I was at her victory party after winning SoS and people were so up on her then. Man, shits changed down there. When I went back to Lexington over Christmas it seems that most of the young dem/lefty crowd I used to hang with had either noped the gently caress out of KY or had gone underground into weird deep poo poo and stopped giving a gently caress.
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Feb 12, 2016 05:55
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