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We are about two weeks away from Super Tuesday and Trump is killing it in most polls... If the establishment bucket of crabs isn't sorted out by then, and if Trump wins in SC, and comes in at least a strong second in NV caucus it's going to be hard to catch him.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:36
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Montasque posted:We are about two weeks away from Super Tuesday and Trump is killing it in most polls... So they end up loving him over at the convention. I'm more convinced then ever that they are crazy enough to do just that.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:38
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the_paradigm_shift posted:So they end up loving him over at the convention. I'm more convinced then ever that they are crazy enough to do just that. They gently caress him over at the convention then prepare for a third party run by Trump and a complete loss of faith in the Republican party from the base.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:40
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i wonder how much of kasich's support comes entirely from him not jumping headfirst into the crab bucket and i wonder if that's enough to make the jeb/rubio thunderdome into a suicide pact
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Feb 14, 2016 18:41
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Montasque posted:They gently caress him over at the convention then prepare for a third party run by Trump and a complete loss of faith in the Republican party from the base. Prepare? I'd be reveling in it as being my dream since before 2010 when the cracks began to show.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:42
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Apparently Rubio has decided "Cruz doesn't speak Spanish, please ignore that he spoke Iffy Spanish directly to me on the debate stage" is a fruitful line of attack. https://twitter.com/SabrinaSiddiqui/status/698898013473734656
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Feb 14, 2016 18:47
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Montasque posted:They gently caress him over at the convention then prepare for a third party run by Trump and a complete loss of faith in the Republican party from the base. Envision this: {Democrat} vs Cruz vs Trump. Scalia's replacement has been stonewalled for nine loving months for the election. Trump running third party gives the Democrat an avalanche victory. Huge wave election gets loads of Democrats into the Senate and House. The new President appoints a replacement for both Scalia and RBG.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:47
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Valentin posted:Apparently Rubio has decided "Cruz doesn't speak Spanish, please ignore that he spoke Iffy Spanish directly to me on the debate stage" is a fruitful line of attack. People keep saying he spoke lovely Spanish, but others have said that it was a Cuban accent. Which is which?
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Feb 14, 2016 18:48
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Brannock posted:Envision this: Trump did say he would Make America Great Again.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:51
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If Bush and Rubio stay neck and neck, trading polling positions through Super Tuesday, it's going to make it really difficult to consolidate the vote against Trump and Cruz. Brannock posted:Envision this: Unless Trump is running his own Trump Party down ticket, I don't think a third party Presidential candidate would lead to a Democratic blowout in the House and Senate.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:51
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evilweasel posted:It all depends on if they can consolidate before the winner-take-all primaries and that's looking less and less likely. I mean, Kasich is probably out after SC but Bush and Rubio are both going to try to wait till Florida. And if they're both in on the first wave of winner-take-all primaries, how the gently caress do they ever overcome that? Kasich isn't depending on any kind of result in SC. He's staying at least until after Super Tuesday, and probably until Ohio votes on the 15th.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:52
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Montasque posted:Post round ups from Freep can be deceiving as there is a very vocal minority of pro-Cruz freepers who pretty much sit in front of their computers 24/7 smashing Trump. I meant the Washington Post (and some other papers, just going through poo poo that pops up on Google News), they sort of aggregate a bunch of pundits to decide who "won" a debate. The consensus is that Jeb! did amazing and Trump died and I just can't wrap my head around how so many paid writers arrived at that conclusion the_paradigm_shift posted:So they end up loving him over at the convention. I'm more convinced then ever that they are crazy enough to do just that. That would be suicidal, for both parties. Not only would it scuttle their chances in the general (mostly from the base staying home) but I think it would actually split people off into a third party or Independent for the Dems and probably end up handing the Tea/Populist faction in the GOP actual lasting control in the long run.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:52
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For decades it has been said Fidel Castro had yelled in strange third-person totalitarian rantingss, but Cruz shows it's just a Cuban accent
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Feb 14, 2016 18:55
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Kasich isn't depending on any kind of result in SC. He's staying at least until after Super Tuesday, and probably until Ohio votes on the 15th. I'm doubtful in the recent polling that's come out of South Carolina, but if Kasich really is performing as well down there as they suggest, then it's going to be fascinating to see who flocks to Kasich and whether his campaign gets a financial reprieve.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:55
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Brannock posted:People keep saying he spoke lovely Spanish, but others have said that it was a Cuban accent. Which is which? Español québécois
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Feb 14, 2016 18:56
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A Stupid Baby posted:That would be suicidal, for both parties. Not only would it scuttle their chances in the general (mostly from the base staying home) but I think it would actually split people off into a third party or Independent for the Dems and probably end up handing the Tea/Populist faction in the GOP actual lasting control in the long run. I think this hypothetical puts way too much stock in believing that a majority of people hate Hillary Clinton or the dems in general.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:57
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mormonpartyboat posted:i wonder how much of kasich's support comes entirely from him not jumping headfirst into the crab bucket I'm ready for a Trump-Kasich ticket
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Feb 14, 2016 18:58
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Brannock posted:People keep saying he spoke lovely Spanish, but others have said that it was a Cuban accent. Which is which? I didn't hear exactly what Ted Cruz said, but the Cuban accent can be annoying/difficult to understand/lovely if you're not used to it, for sure. There's a lot of slurring and abbreviation, especially in the "urban" Cuban accent.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:58
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aren't they both cuban?
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Feb 14, 2016 19:03
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press 1 for english press 2 for SPANISH press 3 to BUILD A WALL press 4 to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
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Feb 14, 2016 19:03
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Baloogan posted:aren't they both cuban? Yeah
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Feb 14, 2016 19:04
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2 observations. 1) Ben Carson is probably the craziest the person in the running by far. But since all other 5 candidates know he has no chance, and that he's more concerned plugging his website and book deals then being president, they let him rattle off whenever he gets asked a question and get to enjoy a nice breather where they know they won't have to pay attention or respond to any crazy poo poo that Friend Ben says. Carson was more of a prop to tear down Cruz for his Iowa shenanigans then anything, and for that I thank him. 2) With Rand Paul out, I can safely say that Trump has by far the best foreign policy stances (certainly when it comes to the middle east) of everyone in the Thunderdome. And it's nice like he's a pacifist or anything. His plan is to bomb the poo poo out of Isis, and then maybe worry about toppling other dictatorships...and that's the most reasonable.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:04
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QuoProQuid posted:I'm doubtful in the recent polling that's come out of South Carolina, but if Kasich really is performing as well down there as they suggest, then it's going to be fascinating to see who flocks to Kasich and whether his campaign gets a financial reprieve. Kasich beating Bush in South Carolina is Max Chaos.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:07
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Last night was... something. Trump is a massive existential threat to the republican party. If he survives this, I'm not sure that the GOP in its current incarnation can actually recover. I don't use "survive" as a word to try and impress that he somehow lost the debate in my mind, but rather, that he openly and directly challenged some of the most sacred tenets of conservative and GOP orthodoxy last night. I think most commentators are rightly thinking that this will damage him, but if his strong 35-40esh percent of the republican electorate emerges even more fired up from that performance, then the GOP has an enormous problem that it may struggle to control. This has always been there in some form, but up until last night, Trump seemed to be interested in at least paying lip service to the GOP. Ultimately, I think Trump likely falls short in creating the majority coalition he needs to actually win the race if it narrows quickly to a 1v1. This is obviously directly challenged by the results in NH. Trump basically won every single demographic in the GOP. If that means he can actually create a huge coalition when the race winnows, then I will eat crow. However, I agree with Joe that the likelyhood that his support tends to fall more along the lines of a cult of personality. In this case, I imagine his ceiling is in the low 40's at the absolute highest. Predictions about Trump's ceiling have obviously always been correct.  If the party doesn't coalesce until after Super Tuesday.......
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Feb 14, 2016 19:07
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evilweasel posted:It all depends on if they can consolidate before the winner-take-all primaries and that's looking less and less likely. I mean, Kasich is probably out after SC but Bush and Rubio are both going to try to wait till Florida. And if they're both in on the first wave of winner-take-all primaries, how the gently caress do they ever overcome that? vvvv truth vvvv StevePerry fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Feb 14, 2016 |
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Feb 14, 2016 19:07
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Yeah, Kasich's in until March 15th, he wants to make his last stand in Ohio. Kasich will get sub-5% in most southern Super Tuesday states, so it's not a huge factor down there, but up north, he could divide the establishment-type vote in states like Massachusetts and Minnesota and make it harder to beat Trump there.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:10
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evilweasel posted:It all depends on if they can consolidate before the winner-take-all primaries and that's looking less and less likely. I mean, Kasich is probably out after SC but Bush and Rubio are both going to try to wait till Florida. And if they're both in on the first wave of winner-take-all primaries, how the gently caress do they ever overcome that? I'm assuming the only way out is a contested convention, if they (and we!) are lucky. Could the GOP have 100+ ballots like in 1924 even if Trump scores at least 1,237 delegates until he eventually loses? Regardless of optics and ramifications, are there technical/procedural limits to the amount of ratfuckery the RNC can engineer on the day of the convention?
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Feb 14, 2016 19:11
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Patter Song posted:Yeah, Kasich's in until March 15th, he wants to make his last stand in Ohio. Kasich will get sub-5% in most southern Super Tuesday states, so it's not a huge factor down there, but up north, he could divide the establishment-type vote in states like Massachusetts and Minnesota and make it harder to beat Trump there. Campaigns don't end, they run out of money. If none of Kasich, Rubio, or Bush run out of money, I don't think they're going anywhere.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:12
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the_paradigm_shift posted:I think this hypothetical puts way too much stock in believing that a majority of people hate Hillary Clinton or the dems in general. It's not about the candidate, people are way more plugged into the process and doing something that would be seen as reversing a democratic vote when people are ALREADY convinced they're being hosed over by some shadowy establishment is going to do serious long term damage.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:15
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I need to fuss with that RCP electoral map for the GOP primaries. I just don't see how the establishment is going to pry this away unless they coalesce around one of the three within the next month.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:18
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Brannock posted:Envision this: Trump running third party gives the democrats the White House but it doesn't hand them the senate. When people show up to vote for Cruz or Trump they're gonna vote GOP for the rest of the ticket. The best bet for a democratic landslide is a Trump or Cruz ticket that pisses off enough republicans and keeps them home, or rat loving at the convention that disgusts people and keeps them home.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:19
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Brannock posted:People keep saying he spoke lovely Spanish, but others have said that it was a Cuban accent. Which is which? I could understand him well enough, I was just too awestruck by the fact that two Republican candidates were about to have a Spanish slap-fight on national television to notice any particular accent. It was hard to hear Cruz anyways.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:20
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quote:Bush said on CNN's "State of the Union" that he thought Obama's nomination would be "out of the mainstream" and rejected by the Senate. CNN host Dana Bash asked Bush if the Republicans should schedule a vote on the nomination. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewi...campaign=buffer Jeb doesn't care.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:20
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A Trump third-party run would kill the Democrats downticket. The Presidential election would be a projected Democratic blowout, so turnout would drop precipitously. If people don't think it's gonna be close, they don't vote. Ask Governor Conway.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:20
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Schnorkles posted:Campaigns don't end, they run out of money. Kasich right now has the semi-hypothetically possible hope that, because A. he's popular in Ohio and B. Ohio is winner-take-all, he could take his home state on March 15th even if he hasn't won a contest up to that point and make himself a serious player in a hypothetical down-to-the-wire delegate contest with Ohio's 66 delegates plus whatever few he scrounges up through proportionality. I think Kasich's dream scenario at this point would be to enter a contested convention with ~100-120 delegates (66 from Ohio plus proportional delegates from elsewhere) and playing kingmaker in a convention in Cleveland in his state. He'd be both host of the convention and have the balance of power.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:21
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Trump running third party gives the democrats the White House but it doesn't hand them the senate.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:21
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Schnorkles posted:Campaigns don't end, they run out of money. Anyone who thinks Bush is going to pull the plug when he should obviously doesn’t remember Terry Schiavo.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:22
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Obama can EASILY get the GOP congress to confirm a SCOTUS nominee. All he has to do is nominate a liberal who ISN'T an extremist and has been on record as being AGAINST the minority decisions in Heller and McDonald. All 4 current Democratic nominees voted in a partisan lock-step manner against the 2A and tried to rewrite it from the bench to go 180 degrees against the entire meaning and purpose of the Bill of Rights. If Democrats had bothered to appoint at least A SINGLE non-extreme justice to the current court, and those decisions were AT LEAST 6-3, we wouldn't be having this conversation right now either. Also, friendly reminder, had Democrats not opposed and ultimately ended Reagan's attempt to place Bork on SCOTUS, we would already have a 5-4 liberal court because Bork instead of Kennedy = Obama both wins reelection in 2012 AND gets to replace a conservative on the court when Bork dies in 2012. Actions have consequences.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:22
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FuriousxGeorge posted:http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewi...campaign=buffer I know what he's saying is that he doesn't care between the Senate voting to reject a nominee and the Senate simply not voting, but boy is that a dumb thing to say since it sounds like he doesn't care if Obama manages to get an appointee or not.
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Feb 14, 2016 19:23
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Were the robocalls that Trump referenced during the debate, the ones that said "Trump is dropping out, vote for Cruz!", actually a thing?
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Feb 14, 2016 19:24
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