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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Maybe so, but I wouldn't put too much value on the "electability" of one candidate over another. People said Crist had crossover appeal. Yeah. He did, but then he touched Obama and took money the state needed instead of trying to gently caress over the people just to show Obama what's up. Then instead of running as a Democrat he split the vote and gave us Senator Rubio. By the time he ran for governor again he was a duplicitous traitor who wasn't pure enough and the same a Rick Scott anyway. He still came close.
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Feb 22, 2016 18:21
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https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/701839670435565569
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Feb 22, 2016 19:45
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Maybe so, but I wouldn't put too much value on the "electability" of one candidate over another. People said Crist had crossover appeal. Yeah. It's not so much he has appeal as he lacks the negative appeal of being an apparent corrupt criminal.
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Feb 22, 2016 19:51
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evilweasel posted:It's not so much he has appeal as he lacks the negative appeal of being an apparent corrupt criminal. I can't tell if we're talking about Charlie Crist or Chris Christie here, and the seeming implication that Christie isn't corrupt isn't helping considering.. well, his entire tenure but especially the bridge thing.
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Feb 22, 2016 19:59
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Brannock posted:I can't tell if we're talking about Charlie Crist or Chris Christie here, and the seeming implication that Christie isn't corrupt isn't helping considering.. well, his entire tenure but especially the bridge thing. Neither - Alan Grayson, current candidate in the Dem primary for the nomination to replace Rubio in the Senate. evilweasel has issued a correction as of 20:06 on Feb 22, 2016 |
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Feb 22, 2016 20:03
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evilweasel posted:Neither - Alan Grayson, current candidate in the Dem primary for the nomination to replace Rubio in the Senate. Alan Grayson is a super bizarre dude.
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Feb 22, 2016 20:08
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Claire no  Claire McCaskill posted:I very recently learned that I have breast cancer. It was detected through a regular mammogram. It’s a little scary, but my prognosis is good and I expect a full recovery. I will be in St Louis for the next 3 weeks receiving treatment. During this time my staff will continue to assist Missourians and I will be posting on my Senate website (McCaskill.senate.gov) how I would have voted on any matters that come before the Senate during my absence—which I’ll also enter into the Congressional record. Additionally, I’ll be submitting questions in writing for any missed Senate hearings.
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Feb 22, 2016 22:12
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Please don't fillibuster holding nomination hearings, Ted Cruz. Oh no, don't do that, don't do that. If you filibuster him, you'll just make him mad.
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Feb 22, 2016 23:06
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Pinterest Mom posted:Claire no Oh my God. I lost my mom to this poo poo a few months ago...I can only imagine what she's going through.
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Feb 22, 2016 23:33
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Maybe so, but I wouldn't put too much value on the "electability" of one candidate over another. People said Crist had crossover appeal. Yeah. Crist did have crossover appeal, he came close to unseating a sitting governor while swimming against the tide in a wave election. His positives just weren't enough to overcome the big negative of having a D next to his name in a bad year for Democrats. Also all this talk of Alan Grayson being corrupt is starting to overshadow all of the older talk of Alan Grayson being a deadbeat dad. He is a bad candidate and if he was a loud conservative instead of a loud liberal you all would be shittalking him all day and night and bringing him up as an example of GOP vileness.
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Feb 23, 2016 01:26
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Pinterest Mom posted:Claire no Good thing medical science has ways of shutting that whole thing down.
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Feb 23, 2016 01:29
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I know this is the Senate thread, and that the House is in no danger of flipping, but I was wondering what the overall House elections look like. Specifically, on the Democratic side, is the trend toward more left-leaning representatives, more Blue Dogs, or pretty steady? On the Republican side, is the trend toward radicalization showing any signs of abating yet?
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Feb 23, 2016 23:27
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Well, I'm pretty sure that literally no house primaries have occurred yet so we can't say. There's obviously more than enough of both groups but they are all running against each other and sometimes themselves. House forecast is looking pretty good for Democrats in the sense that they'd really have to gently caress things up to not gain some seats but thats more of a result of 2014 being a bad year for them than this year being a good one. Maybe its just me but I feel like, outside of a few open seats, Republicans have done a poor job of candidate recruitment this year. Democrats have blown some races too but they a good amount of credible candidates running in races with Republican incumbents.
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Feb 24, 2016 00:59
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Cliff Racer posted:Well, I'm pretty sure that literally no house primaries have occurred yet so we can't say. There's obviously more than enough of both groups but they are all running against each other and sometimes themselves. House forecast is looking pretty good for Democrats in the sense that they'd really have to gently caress things up to not gain some seats but thats more of a result of 2014 being a bad year for them than this year being a good one. Maybe its just me but I feel like, outside of a few open seats, Republicans have done a poor job of candidate recruitment this year. Democrats have blown some races too but they a good amount of credible candidates running in races with Republican incumbents. I am so, so sorry, floridian democrats. Grayson's who-should-I-endorse poll might force him to endorse Bernie though, and if Hillary takes the nom Bernie might take Grayson down with him somewhat?
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Feb 24, 2016 01:09
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Well, while I'm sure greedy millionaire/tax cheat/hooting dickhole/deadbeat dad/embarrassing political ad creator/goon favorite Alan Grayson has some support he also has, among other things, a House Ethics Committee probe into his business dealings. This was just revealed today/yesterday but has actually been ongoing for a few months. As to the poll itself, it was an "internal poll", i.e. something the Grayson campaign paid for and while that doesn't mean that its full of lies it does mean that it probably never would have seen the light of day if it didn't show Grayson in the lead. We don't know how many similar polls were conducted where Grayson lost or, without delving into the poll, what sort of bullshit might have been pulled to get the result that it did. edit: Also, in Indiana news, Todd Young remains on the ballot following the split 2/2 decision from the evenly split along party lines electoral judges. Gee, I wonder which way they voted... In theory (and, as we are likely going to see, in practice) the Democrats could file a suit in a real court trying to get Young off the ballot and such a suit might well succeed. Cliff Racer has issued a correction as of 01:30 on Feb 24, 2016 |
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Feb 24, 2016 01:23
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He's probably going to end up dropping out of the race.
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Feb 24, 2016 01:25
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Grayson should be expelled and censured and prevented from public office for 30 years.
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Feb 24, 2016 01:25
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If Grayson wants to drop down and retain his house seat he'd better do so quickly, the filing deadline is either fast approaching or has already passed. Often the house and senate ethics committees (and that other bane of corrupt politicians, the FBI) seem pretty willing to cut deals in exchange for retirements but Grayson seems stupid enough to try to fight on anyway. edit: With Rubio looking to have an ever increasing likelihood of being the Republican nominee things might turn pretty difficult for Democrats in Florida this cycle, even if Hillary ends up winning nationally. Major caveat of course being that if Rubio (or, hehhehheh, Kasich) doesn't win they'll get to mop the floor with whichever of the undetectable blowhards the Republicans do choose. Cliff Racer has issued a correction as of 01:35 on Feb 24, 2016 |
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Feb 24, 2016 01:33
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Cliff Racer posted:edit: With Rubio looking to have an ever increasing likelihood of being the Republican nominee things might turn pretty difficult for Democrats in Florida this cycle, even if Hillary ends up winning nationally. Major caveat of course being that if Rubio (or, hehhehheh, Kasich) doesn't win they'll get to mop the floor with whichever of the undetectable blowhards the Republicans do choose.
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Feb 24, 2016 01:50
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FlamingLiberal posted:Eh I don't know if that makes a huge difference. I would also disagree that he has a good chance to win the nomination to begin with. It really does, home state advantage is a proven thing. As to Rubio's chances, I said "ever increasing", not "favored to win at this point in time." Its hard to argue that the nadir of Rubio's campaign, to this point was the day of the New Hampshire primary and things have gotten better for him at every instance in time since that point.
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Feb 24, 2016 02:02
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I'm more concerned that the FL Dems are again going to end up with a candidate who is barely left of the GOP candidate, and as a result they are going to whiff on another chance to take a Senate seat that is very much in play.
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Feb 24, 2016 02:08
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FlamingLiberal posted:I'm more concerned that the FL Dems are again going to end up with a candidate who is barely left of the GOP candidate, and as a result they are going to whiff on another chance to take a Senate seat that is very much in play. If you think Grayson has a better chance than Murphy in the general you're daft. He'd get ripped apart even if he didn't have a toxic personal file. Democrats aren't losing due to not being far enough to the left. The DSCC knows this, and thats why they endorsed him. Furthermore, Patrick Murphy isn't "barely left of the GOP candidate" anyway. He opposed TPP from the left in both of its votes, he's voted in support of the president on Iran every time its come up, he supports a path to citizenship, he votes against the traditional Republican bugbears (Obamacare, abortion, etc.) and he does so in a congressional district that generally supports Republicans over Democrats.
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Feb 24, 2016 02:33
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Cliff Racer posted:Well, while I'm sure greedy millionaire/tax cheat/hooting dickhole/deadbeat dad/embarrassing political ad creator/goon favorite Alan Grayson has some support he also has, among other things, a House Ethics Committee probe into his business dealings. This was just revealed today/yesterday but has actually been ongoing for a few months. Alan Grayson is the Joe Walsh of the Democratic party.
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Feb 24, 2016 02:56
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I don't think it has sunk in how steep the uphill battle for the GOP is at the presidential level. Hillary could lose like Ohio and Florida and still hit 270 by taking the other swing states. The GOP has to win all the Romney states plus drat near every swing state, with Ohio and Florida being required. To say the math is against the GOP nominee is kind of an understatement. Trump stands the best chance of jiggling those numbers but it'll probably jiggle toward Hillary given her ability to weather a blizzard of bullshit and come out laughing that goofy cackle. As far as Rubio is concerned, Rubio isn't going to be fooling anyone no matter how much he tries sharpening his accent. His Cuba ideas come from rhetoric almost old enough to be his father, and picking up the best and brightest of the GWB cabinet isnt going to win anyone over outside of the neocon petro-nihilists he didn't pick. Anyone who thinks that red scare bullshit still flies outside of a handful of elderly patriarchs who can afford not to be gentrified out of their flats in Miami is loving delusional. Those people are the lovely old great-uncles who can't attend any more Quinceneara parties because the last few times the cops got called. They're dying off and doing so separated from families that would rather hear from the probate lawyer first. FAUXTON has issued a correction as of 04:21 on Feb 24, 2016 |
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Feb 24, 2016 04:01
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FAUXTON posted:I don't think it has sunk in how steep the uphill battle for the GOP is at the presidential level. Hillary could lose like Ohio and Florida and still hit 270. The GOP has to win all the Romney States, all the traditional swing states, plus something like Pennsylvania or Colorado. If Hillary loses FL because for whatever reason everyone other than swamp-dwellers and shuffleboard cubanos still pissed about Castro appropriating their plantations then she's still got a buffer of something like 30 EV if not more. Virginia becoming lean Democrat has totally hosed up the GOP electoral math.
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Feb 24, 2016 04:05
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FAUXTON posted:I don't think it has sunk in how steep the uphill battle for the GOP is at the presidential level. Hillary could lose like Ohio and Florida and still hit 270. The GOP has to win all the Romney States, all the traditional swing states, plus something like Pennsylvania or Colorado. If Hillary loses FL because for whatever reason everyone other than swamp-dwellers and shuffleboard cubanos still pissed about Castro appropriating their plantations then she's still got a buffer of something like 30 EV if not more. Republicans have a very narrow window to win the Presidency. As you said, they have to hold ALL of the Romney states AND pick up EVERY swing state AND pick up one or two blue states in order to just barely squeak across the 270 EV line. If they miss even one little component of that equation, they lose. I think it's effectively impossible barring some outside assistance: either 1) a supremely talented and appealing Rep candidate and/or 2) some kind of collapse on the part of the Dem candidate (late breaking major scandal, late breaking health issue, party schism, etc.) and/or 3) some sort of Really Bad News (recession, foreign policy disaster, massive scandal, etc.)
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Feb 24, 2016 04:15
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Schnorkles posted:Virginia becoming lean Democrat has totally hosed up the GOP electoral math. That's what happens when you poo poo all over the half of the state that's growing while fellating the half that's shrinking.
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Feb 24, 2016 04:22
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FAUXTON posted:That's what happens when you poo poo all over the half of the state that's growing while fellating the half that's shrinking. it makes loving over government workers electorally dangerous, that's one great thing about virginia being a swing state i think there should be a house thread soon, the first primaries are on march 1st! alabama, arkansas, and texas https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_6M_D6QmR52g56g_H_iymgDk7mlAIIArb9lVxC9IiQw/edit#gid=1347664583 all three have runoffs later the OP should probably have a list like that, a histogram of house seats by presidential voting pattern like this from here which is democrat-biased and kinda whiny but is a really good look at districting tbh  and links to people like http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings http://rothenberggonzales.com/ratings/house http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-house/ what else? we should get that thread started, it'll be pretty dead for a while but poo poo is about to get crackin oh a link to zoomable google maps of all the districts since just a jpg would be worthless for trying to figure out districts in any densely populated area. can we embed google maps? this page has separate maps for each state, some of which are outdated due to republicans creating intentionally illegal maps and playing out the clock so they got to run 3 of 5 elections between constitutionally-mandated redistrictings on the illegal maps. but there must be something like that for the country as a whole oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 05:05 on Feb 24, 2016 |
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Feb 24, 2016 05:01
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Schnorkles posted:Virginia becoming lean Democrat has totally hosed up the GOP electoral math. It's been discovered black women are the most powerful bloc in Virginia. McAuliffe owes them, almost entirely to his election.
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Feb 24, 2016 18:49
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in housechat news, i signed a petition to make sure my current representative stays on the ballot here in NOVA.Nonsense posted:It's been discovered black women are the most powerful bloc in Virginia. McAuliffe owes them, almost entirely to his election. speaking of t-mac, i hadn't seen any approval polling on him in a while but the last one i saw had him at +26   now these polls are a year old, but that's an insane spread. i wonder if that helps him argue he should be the VP pick for hillary rather than julian castro or another rising star... axeil has issued a correction as of 18:59 on Feb 24, 2016 |
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Feb 24, 2016 18:50
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Cliff Racer posted:
Uh have you been under a rock the last week or something? Rubes is completely collapsing, he didn't even stay up for the NV results.
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Feb 24, 2016 18:59
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oystertoadfish posted:it makes loving over government workers electorally dangerous, that's one great thing about virginia being a swing state The Florida Supreme Court decided on a map last month and we are now in the middle of the lawsuits. Hopefully there's no injunctions, but who the gently caress knows. Florida gonna Florida. Gyges has issued a correction as of 19:58 on Feb 24, 2016 |
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Feb 24, 2016 19:54
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https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/702598507828346880 https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/702598007867310080
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Feb 24, 2016 22:07
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I imagine polling for other states regarding the SCOTUS issue probably looks similarly favorable for Obama, outside of the typical shitholes.
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Feb 24, 2016 22:38
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FAUXTON posted:I imagine polling for other states regarding the SCOTUS issue probably looks similarly favorable for Obama, outside of the typical shitholes.
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Feb 24, 2016 23:16
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FAUXTON posted:I imagine polling for other states regarding the SCOTUS issue probably looks similarly favorable for Obama, outside of the typical shitholes. yep: https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/702513544277991424 https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/702513782782861312
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Feb 24, 2016 23:23
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Add 'shitposter' to grayson's charge sheettoday's grayson mailer posted:Dear cuck,
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Feb 24, 2016 23:46
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"Eat My Shorts"- Bart Simpson
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Feb 24, 2016 23:49
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HOTLANTA MAN posted:"Eat My Shorts"- Bart Simpson 
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Feb 24, 2016 23:59
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stephenfry posted:Add 'shitposter' to grayson's charge sheet FlamingLiberal posted:I'm more concerned that the FL Dems are again going to end up with a candidate who is barely left of the GOP candidate, and as a result they are going to whiff on another chance to take a Senate seat that is very much in play. Your party, people!
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Feb 25, 2016 01:04
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