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SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Joementum posted:

What stuff?

Aside from him being the most likely nominee, of course.
I hope you enjoy your last six days of thinking that.

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cuckservative
Feb 24, 2016

by Shine
I wonder if future elections candidates will court /pol/ and other internet thinktanks of highly conservative thought to perform unconventional internet tactics

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU

Mystery Goomba posted:

Why is everyone so quick to write off Rubio all the time? Him not doing a town hall hosted by Hannity does not mean his campaign is collapsing. Relax.

his string of second, third, and fifth place victories are doing a good job of that for him

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe
I can't believe how excited I am for the Marco Rubio campaign!

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
NEVADA DELEGATE COUNT

  • Donald Trump: 14 pledged
  • Marco Rubio: 7 pledged
  • Ted Cruz: 6 pledged
  • Ben Carson: 2 pledged
  • John Kasich: 1 pledged

OVERALL DELEGATE COUNT

  • Donald Trump: 82 pledged
  • Ted Cruz: 17 pledged
  • Marco Rubio: 16 pledged
  • John Kasich: 6 pledged
  • Ben Carson: 5 pledged
  • Jeb! Bush: 4 pledged
  • Rand Paul: 1 pledged
  • Carly Fiorina: 1 pledged
  • Mike Huckabee: 1 pledged

133 delegates awarded so far out of the 2,265 pledged, 210 unpledged, or 2,472 total available delegates to the RNC

railroad terror
Jul 2, 2007

choo choo

Joementum posted:

Fun tidbit: RNC Rule 40 states that in order to be placed in nomination on the first ballot, a candidate must win a majority of delegates in at least eight states.

So, Marco's 3-5-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2 strategy might run into a bit of a snag there. It will be interesting to see what the RNC would do if, say, Trump doesn't have enough delegates to win on the first ballot outright, but also is the only candidate who can be put into nomination under Rule 40, which would then trigger a lot of state party rules binding delegates to the only candidate put in nomination.

Of course, the RNC Rules Committee can change this rule at the convention, if they want.

So, the rules mean nothing, right? The Committee could institute a rule that says "No Trumps Allowed" if they wanted?

MaxxBot
Oct 6, 2003

you could have clapped

you should have clapped!!

Mystery Goomba posted:

Why is everyone so quick to write off Rubio all the time? Him not doing a town hall hosted by Hannity does not mean his campaign is collapsing. Relax.

Lay out a winning scenario for Rubio that doesn't sound totally insane. Even the people who think he might win say that the field needs to quickly winnow down to just Rubio and Trump soon for it to happen, does that sound at all likely to you?

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

railroad terror posted:

So, the rules mean nothing, right? The Committee could institute a rule that says "No Trumps Allowed" if they wanted?

Yes, but the committee will be made up of delegates to the RNC and its report must be certified by a floor vote, so.....

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Joementum posted:

Yes, but the committee will be made up of delegates to the RNC, so.....

TRUMP!

A Neurotic Jew
Feb 17, 2012

by exmarx
Is there even a remote possibility of the GOP rallying around Kasich if Marcio Rubio were to implode? Surely they would prefer to him to Cruz or Trump.

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

Mystery Goomba posted:

Why is everyone so quick to write off Rubio all the time? Him not doing a town hall hosted by Hannity does not mean his campaign is collapsing. Relax.

Maybe you missed the 10 other things that just came out?

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Joementum posted:

NEVADA DELEGATE COUNT

  • Donald Trump: 14 pledged
  • Marco Rubio: 7 pledged
  • Ted Cruz: 6 pledged
  • Ben Carson: 2 pledged
  • John Kasich: 1 pledged

OVERALL DELEGATE COUNT

  • Donald Trump: 82 pledged
  • Ted Cruz: 17 pledged
  • Marco Rubio: 16 pledged
  • John Kasich: 6 pledged
  • Ben Carson: 5 pledged
  • Jeb! Bush: 4 pledged
  • Rand Paul: 1 pledged
  • Carly Fiorina: 1 pledged
  • Mike Huckabee: 1 pledged

133 delegates awarded so far out of the 2,265 pledged, 210 unpledged, or 2,472 total available delegates to the RNC

You should be a Republican consultant. I'm serious, there's a lot of money in that game right now, get it while the getting is good my friend.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

A Neurotic Jew posted:

Is there even a remote possibility of the GOP rallying around Kasich if Marcio Rubio were to implode? Surely they would prefer to him to Cruz or Trump.

The more that it becomes clear that Trump is the people's choice, the more the GOP will warm up to the idea of him.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Montasque posted:

You should be a Republican consultant. I'm serious, there's a lot of money in that game right now, get it while the getting is good my friend.

I'd be really surprised if Joe didn't have some sort of politically-related job.

cuckservative
Feb 24, 2016

by Shine

Mystery Goomba posted:

blah blah dispel blal blah blah that marco rubio knows what he is doing, he knows exactly what he is doing

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Montasque posted:

You should be a Republican consultant. I'm serious, there's a lot of money in that game right now, get it while the getting is good my friend.

I predict the 2020 nominee will be the candidate with the strongest record on reducing the capital gains tax.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Joementum is Reince Priebus, and he posts here because nobody else listens to him anymore :smith:

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

A Neurotic Jew posted:

Is there even a remote possibility of the GOP rallying around Kasich if Marcio Rubio were to implode? Surely they would prefer to him to Cruz or Trump.

Of course. They aren't going to flock to Carson.

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

Joementum posted:

I predict the 2020 nominee will be the candidate with the strongest record on reducing the capital gains tax.

*feverishly scrambles for Wikipedia*

Oh hell just give us a few names

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

A Neurotic Jew posted:

Is there even a remote possibility of the GOP rallying around Kasich if Marcio Rubio were to implode? Surely they would prefer to him to Cruz or Trump.

Who is they? The exit polls all indicate an incredibly strong preference across the republican electorate for someone outside of politics. 92% are (para) 'angry as gently caress at the party'.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Mystery Goomba posted:

Why is everyone so quick to write off Rubio all the time? Him not doing a town hall hosted by Hannity does not mean his campaign is collapsing. Relax.

In the last two days Rubio has cancelled or declined three events: His Nevada watch party, CPAC, and now Hannity's town hall. It's bizarre stuff.

Joementum posted:

I predict the 2020 nominee will be the candidate with the strongest record on reducing the capital gains tax.

The Hedge fund guy in me wants to write you a massive check right now.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

icantfindaname posted:

the guy is the literal epitome of political privilege. people said that about jeb! but no, it's rubio. he's been raised from birth to be the heir to Reagan's throne, and now that he has to fight for it he has no idea what to do. he expected to get the nomination on a silver platter, maybe be jeb's VP this time and then the real nominee next time, but in the grand scheme of things he think's he's the Crown Prince.

Rubio is like Jeb except instead of being the early presumptive nominee he's the late presumptive nominee, instead of marrying a Hispanic he is one, and instead of being figuratively low-energy he's literally low-energy.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

I hope you enjoy your last six days of thinking that.

Again, what is the point of attacking Joe when there are only 5 days until the date where he said he'll admit he's wrong if Trump wins?

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Jewel Repetition posted:

Again, what is the point of attacking Joe when there are only 5 days until the date where he said he'll admit he's wrong if Trump wins?

It's more poking fun than attacking. We're all having fun here. Just like Trump.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Montasque posted:

In the last two days Rubio has cancelled or declined three events: His Nevada watch party, CPAC, and now Hannity's town hall. It's bizarre stuff.

Maybe he's betting on a few surprise wins and trying to stay under Trump's radar until then? Might be hard to take rubio down after March 15th when more favorable states are for him. No idea what he's doing though.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

I hope you enjoy your last six days of thinking that.

Lets dispel with the fiction that I didn't know what I was doing when I posted that. I knew exactly what I was doing.

Microwaves Mom
Nov 8, 2015

by zen death robot

Fiction posted:

The xbox one has the wrong type of ram lol.

Funny, so does Rubio.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
The day before Super Tuesday. Donald Trump unexpectedly announces that he's dropping out of the race, and endorsing Marco Rubio.

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

I have a lot more faith that Joe would cheerfully admit he was wrong, than I do in the rest of you rabble, were the opposite to be true. The only thing he's ever done in this thread and elsewhere is recapitulate the Way It's Always Happened. To the extent that is no longer an accurate barometer, how could anyone be faulted for that?

Said another way: what reason did anyone in August 2015 have to think Trump would be the frontrunner going into Super Tuesday?

Joementum posted:

Lets dispel with the fiction that I didn't know what I was doing when I posted that. I knew exactly what I was doing.

Well struck, old chap. :golfclap:

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU
Good Opinions

https://twitter.com/Right2Liberty/status/702594770057572352

Prof. Lurker
Mar 10, 2015

I've got the fire of human liberty!

I'm setting fires everywhere!

And humans are turning on everywhere!
Yeah I'm not buying the "Rubio is collapsing" thing after those Oklahoma and Texas polls released today. Those are supposed to be Cruz and Trump country.

I really would like to see Trump and Cruz carpet bomb Rubio tomorrow night.

Bar Crow
Oct 10, 2012
Trump has to have his name on everything. Do you really think he'd let someone else's name on his presidential run? It's going to be Trump/Trump. Either one of his kids or himself as his own running mate, possibly with a false mustache and claiming to be Ronald Trump.

Mystery Goomba
Jun 4, 2011

MaxxBot posted:

Lay out a winning scenario for Rubio that doesn't sound totally insane. Even the people who think he might win say that the field needs to quickly winnow down to just Rubio and Trump soon for it to happen, does that sound at all likely to you?

A second-ballot victory for Rubio or even Cruz at the RNC in July is a totally plausible scenario. A first-ballot victory for Trump is also totally plausible. I happen to the think the former is more likely to occur, that's all :)

Montasque posted:

In the last two days Rubio has cancelled or declined three events: His Nevada watch party, CPAC, and now Hannity's town hall. It's bizarre stuff.

Don't get me wrong, I don't believe for a second that Rubio is a good campaigner (he's not). I just thought it was funny that him declining the town hall event was a cataclysmic event for some people here.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Bar Crow posted:

Trump has to have his name on everything. Do you really think he'd let someone else's name on his presidential run? It's going to be Trump/Trump. Either one of his kids or himself as his own running mate, possibly with a false mustache and claiming to be Ronald Trump.

Now this man's thinking like a winner. BIG ideas, I like it!

ate shit on live tv
Feb 15, 2004

by Azathoth

DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:

He can definitely win. My bearishness on his nomination prospects came from my belief that the GOP establishment would stop him because 1) he is likely to be a GE disaster and 2) even if he were to win, his policies are diametrically opposed to what the Club for Growth/PNAC want. I never doubted the passion and numbers of his supporters.

It's clear now that their control over the party is even more tenuous than we thought. I'm not going to say Trump can't win the general. I do think it's a lot bleaker for him than his more passionate supporters believe. The Democrats have a lot of structural advantages in presidential contests; only once have Republicans won the popular vote in the past 28 years, and that was by 2.4%. I think Hillary's weaknesses as a candidate are overblown. Trump's are as well, of course, but it's not enough to not be destroyed; he has to win, and so far he hasn't even managed to convince a majority of the voters in his own party he deserves the job.

A lot can happen between now and November.

I'm making no claims about the General, but surely for the GoP nomination, you have to accept that the establishment isn't calling the shots.

Foo
May 16, 2003
Professional Sponge

Jewel Repetition posted:

Rubio is like Jeb except instead of being the early presumptive nominee he's the late presumptive nominee, instead of marrying a Hispanic he is one, and instead of being figuratively low-energy he's literally low-energy.

To be honest, I'm going to enjoy Rubio's downfall more than Cruz's. Cruz is a massive piece of poo poo and deserves the entire world's hate, but there is something about Rubio's sloth that bothers me more than Cruz being, to steal Boosted's characterization, the Dark Side's very own Roy Orbison.

Nolan Arenado
May 8, 2009


Remember when he was actually in the race?

Yeah, me neither...

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

MaxxBot posted:

Lay out a winning scenario for Rubio that doesn't sound totally insane. Even the people who think he might win say that the field needs to quickly winnow down to just Rubio and Trump soon for it to happen, does that sound at all likely to you?

There's no reliable polling out of most of the March states. Rubio is close in TX and OK in recent polls. He could easily be ahead in some of these states. A few wins would put him in really good position in some of the WTA states he's supposed to be favored in.

cuckservative
Feb 24, 2016

by Shine
Perry would, but he forgot. Ooops.

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Firebert
Aug 16, 2004
Does Rubio have a credible path to the nomination without doing really well on Super Tuesday? I know Florida will be a big delegate swing that he might be favoured to win, but his chances look bad in other winner-take-all states like Arizona/NJ/Ohio.

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