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So that student who got detained a month ago? Turns out his crime was trying to steal a propaganda poster.
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Feb 29, 2016 16:46
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NK should be elated a foreigner wanted a poster of the glory of Juche so drat much!
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Feb 29, 2016 17:00
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One wonders if he couldn't have asked for or purchased something similar. On the other hand, "juche thought" materials are contraband in South Korea, aren't they? Edit: To clarify, I can easily believe he was arrested for trying to steal a poster. I do not for a second believe that Jesus and the CIA put him up to it. Halloween Jack fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Feb 29, 2016 |
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Feb 29, 2016 17:17
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Halloween Jack posted:One wonders if he couldn't have asked for or purchased something similar. On the other hand, "juche thought" materials are contraband in South Korea, aren't they? According to the article, the poster was from the staff only area of the hotel. I guess I could see why someone would be interested in analyzing that but not in physical form, which is stupid. They'd have him take a picture. Stealing a poster is much more likely to be a result of him wanting a souvenir. Honestly, if that is the case I hope State lets him rot. It would send a strong signal to other would-be pot stirrers who travel abroad and then break the law.
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Mar 1, 2016 05:57
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Cliff Racer posted:According to the article, the poster was from the staff only area of the hotel. I guess I could see why someone would be interested in analyzing that but not in physical form, which is stupid. They'd have him take a picture. Stealing a poster is much more likely to be a result of him wanting a souvenir. Honestly, if that is the case I hope State lets him rot. It would send a strong signal to other would-be pot stirrers who travel abroad and then break the law. "Petty thieves should be kidnapped and killed by dictatorships."
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Mar 1, 2016 07:21
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Since when was he kidnapped? He was arrested by the police while stealing something. If this happened in the United States, with him ripping down a mural at a park visitor center or something you could expect the law to be followed just as well. Why is it the state department's job to bail him out when he's not only not being treated harsher than an average citizen caught preforming the same crime would be, but is actually being treated much more nicely. He's definitely not going to be killed either, fwiw.
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Mar 1, 2016 07:35
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Cliff Racer posted:Since when was he kidnapped? He was arrested by the police while stealing something. If this happened in the United States, with him ripping down a mural at a park visitor center or something you could expect the law to be followed just as well. Why is it the state department's job to bail him out when he's not only not being treated harsher than an average citizen caught preforming the same crime would be, but is actually being treated much more nicely. He's definitely not going to be killed either, fwiw. I am fully in favor of North Korea taking, and hopefully keeping, as many of our morons as possible.
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Mar 1, 2016 07:38
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Seconded. We also shouldn't give a drat about what best korea does internationally anymore. It is clear beyond a shadow of a doubt that everything the regime does is for blackmail. The best 'we' can do now is not care, treat them like eritrea or somalia, fire back when they provoke the south, and take a hell of a lot more care about the refugees. Because all that will be an order of magnitude cheaper than rebuild the north ddr-style, and likely not more expensive than the aid money they blackmail now. gently caress em. Bomb them. The North will fall into chaos, but even chaos is cheaper and on morally higher ground than the Kim dynasty. TL/DR don't give Kim cash for blackmail, watch the regime fall, let the chosun land people sort out the resulting mess themselves, don't pay for reconstruction, take care of the refugees. Cheapest option. ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 15:11 on Mar 1, 2016 |
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Mar 1, 2016 15:06
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Cliff Racer posted:According to the article, the poster was from the staff only area of the hotel. I guess I could see why someone would be interested in analyzing that but not in physical form, which is stupid. They'd have him take a picture. Stealing a poster is much more likely to be a result of him wanting a souvenir. Honestly, if that is the case I hope State lets him rot. It would send a strong signal to other would-be pot stirrers who travel abroad and then break the law. chitoryu12 posted:"Petty thieves should be kidnapped and killed by dictatorships." Given that college students are going to be college students, my judgment is that organizations like the one that organized this young man's trip to North Korea really shouldn't take college students. It's irresponsible. What's the future look like for NK's tourism industry in light of the proposed sanctions? ThisIsJohnWayne posted:gently caress em. Bomb them. The North will fall into chaos, but even chaos is cheaper and on morally higher ground than the Kim dynasty. quote:watch the regime fall, let the chosun land people sort out the resulting mess themselves, don't pay for reconstruction, take care of the refugees. Cheapest option. Why do halfwit jingoists flock to this thread like hummingbirds to nectar?
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Mar 1, 2016 16:04
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Does the US and SK have a plan for Nork collapse? Please tell me the Pentagon or state department has some kind of a plan on file.
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Mar 1, 2016 16:14
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quote:What's the future look like for NK's tourism industry in light of the proposed sanctions? WorldsStrongestNerd posted:Does the US and SK have a plan for Nork collapse? Please tell me the Pentagon or state department has some kind of a plan on file. Seoul has a whole "Reunification Ministry" that seems to try to do everything except prepare for reunification. That said the current, conservative, government is actually setting aside money for future reunification, which is something its predecessors did not do. Its nowhere near enough though, rebuilding North Korea will cost trillions and take a half-century (to say noting of its malnourished, under-educated and in many places probably literally brain damaged population.) As for military plans, yeah, of course they do. They don't make them publicly available though so all we can really do is speculate. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Mar 1, 2016 |
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Mar 1, 2016 16:28
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WorldsStrongestNerd posted:Does the US and SK have a plan for Nork collapse? Please tell me the Pentagon or state department has some kind of a plan on file. They probably have something, it's probably super classified, and it probably basically amounts to "quietly support whichever warlord emerges victorious from the chaos while publicly condemning them".
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Mar 1, 2016 17:38
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I don't think they'd allow any warlord to rise up. The country would get occupied pretty quick by several countries to manage refugees and migrants and minimize economic damage to the surrounding area.
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Mar 1, 2016 18:42
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WorldsStrongestNerd posted:Does the US and SK have a plan for Nork collapse? Please tell me the Pentagon or state department has some kind of a plan on file. I'm not sure of any plans for post-collapse but there have been some estimations as to how many refugees such a thing would produce and how much it would cost SK to bring NK up to SK's standards. Not sure the exact numbers but I'm linking an article about it. Basically nobody wants Korean unification and the only plans we have are that of defeating NK in a war. http://www.dw.com/en/mafael-benefits-outweigh-costs-of-korean-reunification/a-17966172
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Mar 1, 2016 18:45
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Halloween Jack posted:If you really want to read what a clusterfuck it would be to conquer and rehabilitate North Korea, I suggest Bennett's RAND Corporation report. It's book length, but summarizes the problems with the country and scenarios that would likely happen under an occupation in the first 50 pages. quote:Starting in 1995, North Korea experienced a severe famine caused initially by floods but followed by drought in 1997. At least several hundred thousand people died of starvation and perhaps as many as 3 million or so.14 Starvation has continued, although at lower level, since that time. Overall, starvation has physically and mentally impaired a significant part of the North Korean workforce. quote:According to National Intelligence Council, Strategic Implications of Global Health, ICA 2008-10D, December 2008, p. 6: 
Halloween Jack fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Mar 1, 2016 |
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Mar 1, 2016 19:09
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WorldsStrongestNerd posted:Does the US and SK have a plan for Nork collapse? Please tell me the Pentagon or state department has some kind of a plan on file. Yes. OPLAN 5027 has existed in various forms since the Korean War, and is the combined South Korean - US military response to a North Korean attack. The most recent plan in such an event, as of 1999, is to swiftly invade and occupy North Korea. quote:A senior US official was reported to have said: "When we're done, they will not be able to mount any military activity of any kind. We will kill them all." The goal of the revised plan was to "abolish North Korea as a functioning state, end the rule of its leader, Kim Jong Il, and reorganize the country under South Korean control." This predates North Korean nuclear weapons, but presumably the US military already has plans for that (along with the long-threatened turning Seoul into a "sea of fire", which would be countered by aggressive counter-battery fire.) OPLAN 5027 isn't exactly a secret and North Korea shouts about it constantly. OPLAN 5029 is a related plan that assumes a North Korean collapse without a direct attack on South Korea. It has considerably less direct work since South Korea very much does not want to annex the North (it would cost too much) and would prefer that it remain a theoretically independent Chinese puppet until it becomes something approaching a working state. However this isn't something most South Korean politicians like to state publicly. This has been the most threatened war in the past 50 years, so there are definitely plans. Lum_ fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Mar 1, 2016 |
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Mar 1, 2016 19:49
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Uncle Jam posted:I don't think they'd allow any warlord to rise up. The country would get occupied pretty quick by several countries to manage refugees and migrants and minimize economic damage to the surrounding area. I suppose it depends on what you mean by "collapse". Short of a massive popular revolution, I can't see the North Korean society degrading to the point of complete breakdown of the system. Even if the central government falls, there are plenty of regional power-holders and generals to take the reins of the system and declare themselves the next Supreme Leader, and it's more convenient for NK's neighbors to immediately recognize whoever ends up with the nukes as the new leader of the DPRK and give them a bit of aid to help them stabilize things, rather than invading and taking responsibility for the population. If the civil system of North Korea totally fails, there would be little choice but to take control and build a puppet government as fast as possible, but I don't consider a total disintegration of society like that to be as likely as one of the "as your new future dictator, congrats on overthrowing the old dictator, I will totally make things better and not abuse you, honest" events that South Korea is so familiar with.
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Mar 1, 2016 20:29
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NK will collapse eventually, and I can see China and SK holding thier borders against refugees with lethal force while the country depopulates itself. I dunno just seems depressing.
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Mar 1, 2016 22:40
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WorldsStrongestNerd posted:NK will collapse eventually, and I can see China and SK holding thier borders against refugees with lethal force while the country depopulates itself. Welcome to Realpolitik, son.
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Mar 2, 2016 06:09
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I'm not sure you could have a popular revolution in NK. It seems too controlled and repressive for opposition groups to get organized. Maybe a military coup but even then, how do you convince your brainwashed grunts to suddenly march on Pyongyang and Dear Leader? eh I doubt it. Some political faction could probably switch things up though - leader suddenly died but on his deathbed he totally appointed a new guy.
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Mar 2, 2016 06:47
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Anosmoman posted:I'm not sure you could have a popular revolution in NK. It seems too controlled and repressive for opposition groups to get organized. Maybe a military coup but even then, how do you convince your brainwashed grunts to suddenly march on Pyongyang and Dear Leader? eh I doubt it. Some political faction could probably switch things up though - leader suddenly died but on his deathbed he totally appointed a new guy. Honestly, ideology doesn't matter much to the starving, unless it's along the lines of 'Kill this nerd and you'll have full bellies for the forseeable future'.
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Mar 2, 2016 06:52
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WarpedNaba posted:Honestly, ideology doesn't matter much to the starving, unless it's along the lines of 'Kill this nerd and you'll have full bellies for the forseeable future'. Well then it would have happened during the last famine. Revolutions don't just happen out of the blue - it's usually preceded by a period of open dissatisfaction or unrest. I doubt people in NK can get to that point before they start getting deported to slave camps en masse.
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Mar 2, 2016 07:03
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Anosmoman posted:Well then it would have happened during the last famine. Revolutions don't just happen out of the blue - it's usually preceded by a period of open dissatisfaction or unrest. I doubt people in NK can get to that point before they start getting deported to slave camps en masse. Counterpoint: Where do you think the foreign aid went to? The peasantry, the armed forces or the elites?
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Mar 2, 2016 07:12
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Main Paineframe posted:I suppose it depends on what you mean by "collapse". Short of a massive popular revolution, I can't see the North Korean society degrading to the point of complete breakdown of the system. Even if the central government falls, there are plenty of regional power-holders and generals to take the reins of the system and declare themselves the next Supreme Leader, and it's more convenient for NK's neighbors to immediately recognize whoever ends up with the nukes as the new leader of the DPRK and give them a bit of aid to help them stabilize things, rather than invading and taking responsibility for the population. If the civil system of North Korea totally fails, there would be little choice but to take control and build a puppet government as fast as possible, but I don't consider a total disintegration of society like that to be as likely as one of the "as your new future dictator, congrats on overthrowing the old dictator, I will totally make things better and not abuse you, honest" events that South Korea is so familiar with. Yeah. It's so hard to figure what happens. But there are even more options than that. Society doesn't have to collapse for people who routinely cross the border to figure out border controls are for some reason non exsistent anymore in a kind of parallel to the iron curtain (but not really). Whatever happens will probably be unique since the situation is unique. It's hard to imagine an extended hot war with the limited military stocks they have though. WarpedNaba posted:Counterpoint: Where do you think the foreign aid went to? The peasantry, the armed forces or the elites? Why do you think stolen aid is going to cause a popular revolt? And the food situation is much better than the 90s.
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Mar 2, 2016 14:49
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There's already been a lot of signs that the regime is under a ton of strain, and KJU isn't his father.
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Mar 2, 2016 14:57
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Full Battle Rattle posted:There's already been a lot of signs that the regime is under a ton of strain, and KJU isn't his father. Have there? There have been signs that Kim Jong-Un's position is under strain, but that doesn't mean the regime itself is in danger - it just means that KJU himself is in danger of having some tragic accident, like falling down the stairs...into a hail of machinegun fire. Dictatorships run by weak dictators are usually more stable than they appear, because the system isn't overly dependent on a particular Supreme Leader, so it's quite easy for a military coup to kill the current one and swap in a new one at the slightest hint of trouble.
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Mar 2, 2016 15:11
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Anosmoman posted:I'm not sure you could have a popular revolution in NK. It seems too controlled and repressive for opposition groups to get organized. Maybe a military coup but even then, how do you convince your brainwashed grunts to suddenly march on Pyongyang and Dear Leader? eh I doubt it. Some political faction could probably switch things up though - leader suddenly died but on his deathbed he totally appointed a new guy. They wouldn't be marching on Dear Leader, they'd be marching FOR him, against his unworthy son who has been lead astray. The most likely coup to occur though, honestly, is also the most likely to have already occurred. That is, the OGD's directorate making KJU a puppet, with him unable to go against their wishes. Perhaps, at that point, a group of generals, pushed against the wall by the threat of additional purges, would attempt a sixties style "we have conquered the palace, that makes us king" coup but I doubt it, they'd have better luck running for the border and never coming back.
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Mar 3, 2016 01:06
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Uncle Jam posted:
You seem to think the masses control the power in NK. They do not, under any circumstances. This is not George Orwell's idealised dystopia, where the proles possess some magical sleeping power. The two spheres that contain the most ability for a revolution or a coup in NK are indubitably the army/spec forces and the Elites in Pyongyang. Aside from the constant power playing, the main reason they will not revolt (successfully, there's a very high chance that the Fat Man has had an attempted coup by now from some rogue general) is that they are among the best fed and sheltered from the general horror that is North Korea. Granted, that's an extremely low bar to clear (and it isn't very well cleared) but the fact remains: Those with the power to generate and sustain social unrest are quite clearly those who have the most to lose should they do so in this scenario.
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Mar 3, 2016 05:41
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WarpedNaba posted:You seem to think the masses control the power in NK. They do not, under any circumstances. This is not George Orwell's idealised dystopia, where the proles possess some magical sleeping power. I don't think there will ever be a popular revolt. So it's unclear why you are telling me this. I thought you were the one who was arguing for it.
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Mar 3, 2016 14:07
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Stupid question. but how has a plague/virus/whatever not almost destroyed north korea yet. I doubt they have good healthcare despite what their appologistes attest. I know famine related syndroms and diseies are rampant. I am just surprised their hasn't been a cholera epidemic.
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Mar 3, 2016 14:25
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Main Paineframe posted:Have there? There have been signs that Kim Jong-Un's position is under strain, but that doesn't mean the regime itself is in danger - it just means that KJU himself is in danger of having some tragic accident, like falling down the stairs...into a hail of machinegun fire. Dictatorships run by weak dictators are usually more stable than they appear, because the system isn't overly dependent on a particular Supreme Leader, so it's quite easy for a military coup to kill the current one and swap in a new one at the slightest hint of trouble. The Kim cult of personality is famous for a reason. He is the state. I don't think there's any real way to predict what would happen if there was a coup that attempted to place someone in power who wasn't a legitimate heir to the Kim dynasty. They might be able to contort some kind of working world view out of it, but there's an equally likely chance of becoming a failed state that requires international support to stabilize.
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Mar 4, 2016 00:53
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Just because you're the divinely ordained god-king doesn't mean that you can't be a puppet in the hands of your generals and ministers. In a hypothetical palace coup the generals wouldn't even have to kill KJU, they'd just shoot some of their rivals and make it very clear to fat boy that he's next unless he does as they say.
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Mar 4, 2016 01:09
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The Kim dynasty is also famously faked. If KJU somehow falls onto a bunch of bullets, his replacement will quickly discover his Kim ancestry and the requisite three miracles.
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Mar 4, 2016 03:03
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Full Battle Rattle posted:The Kim cult of personality is famous for a reason. He is the state. I don't think there's any real way to predict what would happen if there was a coup that attempted to place someone in power who wasn't a legitimate heir to the Kim dynasty. They might be able to contort some kind of working world view out of it, but there's an equally likely chance of becoming a failed state that requires international support to stabilize. The Kim family's big enough that there's no shortage of figureheads to choose from.
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Mar 4, 2016 04:14
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Historically, there has been no shortage of palace coups that claimed to act on behalf of the sovereign while keeping him under heavy guard.
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Mar 4, 2016 04:51
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Someone smart tell me whether I should be worried about North Korea readying nukes.
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Mar 4, 2016 04:55
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CelestialScribe posted:Someone smart tell me whether I should be worried about North Korea readying nukes. Probably not worth the extra anxiety, unless you work for the State Department or something.
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Mar 4, 2016 05:11
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CelestialScribe posted:Someone smart tell me whether I should be worried about North Korea readying nukes. Do you live in South Korea or China? If not, the answer is "No". If you do, the answer is "Almost certainly not".
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Mar 4, 2016 05:16
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Remember everyone, North Korea isn't actually a monarchy. Kim Il Sung got his son installed as his successor after a decade of setting up the transfer. Kim Jong Il got his son in at the proverbial last minute in what might turn out to have been a failed transition. Its been father, son, grandson so far but if the next one isn't part of the family it won't be a violation of official ideology. The further off we get from the "god-like" Kim Il Sung the less being related to him matters. I'll go so far as to say that the next ruler of North Korea probably will not be a direct ancestor of KIS.
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Mar 4, 2016 05:28
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Stupid question. but how has a plague/virus/whatever not almost destroyed north korea yet. I doubt they have good healthcare despite what their appologistes attest. I know famine related syndroms and diseies are rampant. I am just surprised their hasn't been a cholera epidemic. In seriousness? Look, cholera and other diseases like that don't just spontaneously generate themselves, you need to transfer the pathogens into the community somehow. Now consider this: most North Koreans can't travel far and wide even in their own country. It's expensive even if they get permission. And the people who do travel widely in that country? They're elites, with easily on par with the west medical care. As a result it's hard to get widespread disease going on. Any outbreaks are likely to quickly die out by killing off the not that healthy already populations they've infected before they have a chance to really spread.
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Mar 4, 2016 06:08
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