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Darkman Fanpage
Jul 4, 2012

CubsWoo posted:

Oh it's a state supreme court nomination

whocares.jpg

New Jersey sucks.

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Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Ben Carson endorsed by Alabama State Senator Tripp Pittman :eyepop:

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/704395529170653185

DAD LOST MY IPOD
Feb 3, 2012

Fats Dominar is on the case


the fact that republican primary voters are insane heathens chanting for blood is not new information, a lot of what hurt Romney in 2012 was insane statements he had to make in the primary and was unable to convincingly walk back in the general

the difference is that they're four years madder now and the establishment vote was splintered with the nutjob contingent united rather than the reverse

trump is Romney: a candidate beloved by less than half the party but with no credible alternative

the establishment feels much more entitled to the support of the base than vice versa, hence all of the pants-making GBS threads we're seeing lately compared to the grumpy acquiescence of four years ago

cheesetriangles
Jan 5, 2011





Make the election a loser leaves town match.

Darkman Fanpage
Jul 4, 2012

Joementum posted:

Ben Carson endorsed by Alabama State Senator Tripp Pittman :eyepop:

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/704395529170653185

Weird but good.

Boosted_C5
Feb 16, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 5 years!
Grimey Drawer
Hell yeah. Twitter war vs. Rick Wilson.

Twitter is awesome!!! Made some friends, saw some funny poo poo, and now arguing with some Trump hating dummy all on my first day.

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Adar posted:

The media have started covering this so I can spill the beans.

Rubio is probably screwed on Tuesday because of two very nasty wrinkles Reince et al. threw into their delegate allocation rules.

1)The four largest states (TX/GA/TN/AL) all have 20% thresholds;
2)Congressional district delegates are distributed 2 for 1st place / 1 for 2nd in every state.

The first wrinkle comes into play everywhere somebody runs under 20%. Obviously, if Rubio is under 20% in any of these states he's in trouble, but it's almost as bad for him if Cruz is. To take a T35/R25/C20 vs. C19 split as an example, it's the difference between Trump getting 45-55% of the delegates and 65-70% of them. Note that Cruz delegates are almost as good for Rubio as Rubio delegates at this point, because some of the only realistic ways that Rubio wins involve making a deal with him.

The second wrinkle is mostly a big deal in Texas, which has 108 congressional delegates (and somewhat in GA which also has 45). Just cutting down the margin of victory does nothing for Rubio; Trump can underperform there and still get almost the same delegate #. On the other hand, there will definitely be many districts in GA where Cruz beats Rubio / TX where Trump beats Rubio. This will cost Cruzbio 2-3 dozen delegates at a minimum.

Basically, Rubio does much better in the delegate math if Cruz takes 48 hours longer to flame out than it seems he's currently doing. At the moment it looks like Cruz is failing everywhere but Texas, and the minute he drops under 20% in the rest of the South he takes Rubio down with him. This is, of course, entirely appropriate in GOP2016.

---

The last polls in TX (C33/T32/R17), AL (T42/R19/C17) and TN (T40/C22/R19) mean that, if they all hold up, Rubio will get approximately 4-6 delegates out of the 258 that they have combined, Cruz will get approximately 100 and Trump will take the rest. If Cruz underperforms by 1 more point and loses Texas, Rubio will still get 5, Cruz will get 50 delegates and Trump will get 200. Draw your own conclusions.

Soul Glo
Aug 27, 2003

Just let it shine through

Powercrazy posted:

But Trump isn't "openly racist," and you are going to be hard pressed to convince everyone that he is.

Actually, he is.

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU
"I am not taking off-topic questions"

Christie is #1 best Trump buddy

Maoist Pussy
Feb 12, 2014

by Lowtax

Majorian posted:

punches downward

America doesn't speak Tumblr. Press 1 for English, motherfucker.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven


I think this sums things up.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.
What does everyone think of the accusation that Kasich is knowingly acting as a spoiler for Trump so in exchange for a chance at VP?

Laphroaig
Feb 6, 2004

Drinking Smoke
Dinosaur Gum

Majorian posted:

Magnificent.

Trump is getting that Muslim vote and that American Black vote all in one fell swoop.

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU
"Can I have permission to ask..."

No. Permission denied.

Maoist Pussy
Feb 12, 2014

by Lowtax

CottonWolf posted:

Why is this not a bigger deal?

Because Everything We Know Is Wrong.

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
reporter asked if the state supreme court nomination was to distract from donald trump's firestorm heh

paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007

Jewel Repetition posted:

What does everyone think of the accusation that Kasich is knowingly acting as a spoiler for Trump so in exchange for a chance at VP?

i think thats probably given john kasich way too much credit

R. Guyovich
Dec 25, 1991

Maoist Pussy posted:

As an elected politician, I personally would refuse to listen to the concerns of any voters who think things that are bad.

you can't possibly be this dense

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Maoist Pussy posted:

America doesn't speak Tumblr. Press 1 for English, motherfucker.

The unemployed former coal miner without a high school degree at the Trump rally is punching down

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Laphroaig posted:

Trump is getting that Muslim vote and that American Black vote all in one fell swoop.

White is black, up is down.

Phlegmish posted:

The unemployed former coal miner without a high school degree at the Trump rally is punching down

Because that coal miner without a high school degree is running for president, and not the billionaire who outsourced thousands of jobs.

Cnut the Great
Mar 30, 2014

Jewel Repetition posted:

What does everyone think of the accusation that Kasich is knowingly acting as a spoiler for Trump so in exchange for a chance at VP?

At this point I'm pretty sure no one knows what the gently caress they're doing, except for Trump. And even then I'm pretty sure Trump is just acting on pure animal instinct, with very little conscious thought.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
If you want to play the race card against trump you go after his supporters and the people he retweets

DAD LOST MY IPOD
Feb 3, 2012

Fats Dominar is on the case


Laphroaig posted:

Trump is getting that Muslim vote and that American Black vote all in one fell swoop.

Only if they want to go into the abyss of Hell!

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

all the monster shitheads are coming to bat for trump.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Trump's campaign is branching out, now says it will make Kenya great again too.

https://twitter.com/DanScavino/status/704289585875046401

Obvious question is whether they want to revert to colonial or pre-colonial Kenya.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

Despera posted:

If you want to play the race card against trump you go after his supporters and the people he retweets

that whitegenocidetm guy is gonna get a ton of follows this general election campaign season

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Cnut the Great posted:

At this point I'm pretty sure no one knows what the gently caress they're doing, except for Trump. And even then I'm pretty sure Trump is just acting on pure animal instinct, with very little conscious thought.

A good analysis.

Rocks
Dec 30, 2011

journalists are so loving sensitive

yeah so you got chokeslammed to the ground, follow the rules and it won't happen :smug:

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU
CHRISTIE CAUGHT IN ANOTHER SHOCKING LIE AT PRESS CONFERENCE:

"I could have walked back from Tennessee to New Jersey from Friday to today."

Will Trump disavow this opportunistic liar?

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Jewel Repetition posted:

What does everyone think of the accusation that Kasich is knowingly acting as a spoiler for Trump so in exchange for a chance at VP?
It's either that, or he's counting on winning Ohio while Rubio loses Florida, who then drops out and endorses him. That's the only possible option.

Is candidates ceding their delegates to a candidate of their choice something that actually happens, or was that a fever dream? 2012 was so much alcohol and tears ago.

Narciss
Nov 29, 2004

by Cowcaster
This poll is kind of old, but can someone explain how Trump got the highest Muslim support of the GOP candidates?

https://www.cair.com/press-center/press-releases/13365-cair-releases-results-of-muslim-voter-survey-ahead-of-primary-elections.html

quote:

CAIR’s Muslim voter survey also indicated that more than half of respondents said they would support Hillary Clinton in the elections (51.62%), followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (22.03%) and Donald Trump (7.47%).

I don't know much about CAIR, is this a pro-Trump push poll?

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Jewel Repetition posted:

What does everyone think of the accusation that Kasich is knowingly acting as a spoiler for Trump so in exchange for a chance at VP?

I've thought since the beginning he was angling for a vp spot. It definitely came across like that in the early debates, his hesitancy to criticize other candidates, the narrow focus on a few states with little potential to scale up and become nationally competitive. I don't think he would have chosen Trump as his pick for #1 on the ticket but it would be consistent with the long arc of his campaign.

Laphroaig
Feb 6, 2004

Drinking Smoke
Dinosaur Gum

Jewel Repetition posted:

A good analysis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfX0H9v5_3k

Mayor Dave
Feb 20, 2009

Bernie the Snow Clown
how the gently caress does this thread generate so many posts, it's like a full-time job to keep up with it

ass cobra
May 28, 2004

by Azathoth

Narciss posted:

This poll is kind of old, but can someone explain how Trump got the highest Muslim support of the GOP candidates?

https://www.cair.com/press-center/press-releases/13365-cair-releases-results-of-muslim-voter-survey-ahead-of-primary-elections.html


I don't know much about CAIR, is this a pro-Trump push poll?

Probably name recognition

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Narciss posted:

This poll is kind of old, but can someone explain how Trump got the highest Muslim support of the GOP candidates?

https://www.cair.com/press-center/press-releases/13365-cair-releases-results-of-muslim-voter-survey-ahead-of-primary-elections.html


I don't know much about CAIR, is this a pro-Trump push poll?

People are attracted to power.

Rocks
Dec 30, 2011

Mayor Dave posted:

how the gently caress does this thread generate so many posts, it's like a full-time job to keep up with it

:justpost:

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Boosted_C5 posted:

Hell yeah. Twitter war vs. Rick Wilson.

Twitter is awesome!!! Made some friends, saw some funny poo poo, and now arguing with some Trump hating dummy all on my first day.

Trolling Rick Wilson is the easiest drat thing. Dude responds to just about everyone. Keep it up, he's near a complete mental break.

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe

Typical gotcha liberal media tactics. I bet you they wouldn't have asked Obama to disavow the support of someone like Farrakhan :colbert:

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SuperDucky
May 13, 2007

by exmarx
It is my most intense, feverish dream that Reince Priebus comes on stage at the Republican convention with 1/4 of a handle of Jack in his hand, mumbling about, "the establishment" and "Rubio sucking dick in Miami in the 90s" and begins shooting wildly into the crowd. This, of course, being the RNC, is an open carry event and literally everyone dies in a Sandy Hook-style bloodbath.
If you think that is an outlandish possibility, you obviously haven't been paying attention. Chaos reigns.

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