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IMO north korea's delivery mechanism for a nuclear device is a suicide sub.
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Mar 7, 2016 10:17
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Baloogan posted:IMO north korea's delivery mechanism for a nuclear device is a suicide sub. Even there, it's questionable. Fat Man weighed 10,300lb, and even if the North Koreans are cooking off gun-type devices just to make seismograph needles jump and give CNN and Fox News cause to scare gullible people into building doomsday bunkers, Little Boy weighed 9700lbs. I'm still going with 'shipping crate.' And even if you're right, even though Crossroads Baker was a *gorgeous* test and what most people think of when they're told to describe a nuclear detonation, what it taught us is that while detonating underwater makes for a pretty picture and can sink ships rather well, it really doesn't do anything other than heavily irradiate a shitload of water that goes up and comes right back down.
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Mar 7, 2016 10:36
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Let's say that NK can't really launch one on a rocket. That seems plausible given that it's probably a tremendously heavy bomb at this point. However, they could drop one near the DMZ or maybe they get lucky and send it on a bomber on a one way trip and hit a SK city. What's the most likely response there by China? We can pretty much guarantee that SK immediately launches an invasion back up the peninsula. I'd almost imagine that China might help with some decapitation strikes or something against the NK leadership / power and communication infrastructures.
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Mar 7, 2016 12:46
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That Works posted:However, they could drop one near the DMZ or maybe they get lucky and send it on a bomber on a one way trip and hit a SK city.
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Mar 7, 2016 13:15
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They have tunneled under the border occasionally, haven't they? I mean, that might concievably get it into the basement of a building with a freight elevator in Seoul...
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Mar 7, 2016 13:21
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Smuggling by boat seems the most plausible way to me. That is its own can of worms though. Probably need to go to around a third party place first transfer to a clean ship unnoticed then back down to SK.
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Mar 7, 2016 13:29
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Kesper North posted:They have tunneled under the border occasionally, haven't they? I mean, that might concievably get it into the basement of a building with a freight elevator in Seoul...
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Mar 7, 2016 13:36
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That Works posted:Let's say that NK can't really launch one on a rocket. That seems plausible given that it's probably a tremendously heavy bomb at this point. This is a good point- it's a nuclear strike that marks the end of North Korea. TBH, I think if Nork nukes get used, they are set off during a civil war (or when Russia invades) Also, to go back to the original post, the North Koreans said "a nuclear strike of justice." So they are talking about a metaphorical nuclear strike
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Mar 7, 2016 14:23
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That Works posted:
I expect China will keep their hands off like NK had the plague, and they will keep their hands clean vis a vis NK to keep open the option of sowing discord more effectively after SK gets stuck in that tar baby.
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Mar 7, 2016 14:34
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China will seal its border and watch silently, but they won't help in a military action against North Korea. They have too much invested in them to turn around that much, even if the North uses a nuke. It's the same reason why Russia still backed Serbia during the Yugoslav wars, and barely allowed the breakup despite genocide.
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Mar 7, 2016 15:53
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Godholio posted:This isn't really the same thing. But that's probably a big part of why their payload failed so quickly, it was more a test of an ICBM than a spacelaunch. It re-stabilized, allegedly. Nebakenezzer posted:(or when Russia invades) what
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Mar 7, 2016 18:09
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I think the question of what China does in the event of any sort of NK crisis is one of the big foreign policy questions and if anyone knows for sure, let DoD, State and the intelligence community know. China's real investment is in the status quo on the peninsula. I'd be shocked if they didn't take some sort of action to avoid any actual escalation of tensions. They can't avoid a full scale collapse of the regime and the resultant refugee crisis and chaos on their doorstep.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:30
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Veritek83 posted:I think the question of what China does in the event of any sort of NK crisis is one of the big foreign policy questions and if anyone knows for sure, let DoD, State and the intelligence community know. China's already a penny in on keeping out refugees. They've got patrols going to watch for escapees/smugglers/refugees attempting to cross the Yalu. Granted, the Norks keep their shore more heavily patrolled, and in the event of regime collapse a lot of those patrols go away. But I'd assume China would rather stack the banks with soldiers and refuse any refugee entry until the crisis passes or no more refugees remain to attempt to enter.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:41
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Koramei posted:what They seem really intent on loving around and making people hostile to them, I figured invasion of NK would be next once Ukraine and Syria begin to wear off.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:51
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Both of those have strong strategic implications. NK does not for them.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:55
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Nebakenezzer posted:Welp, it's that time of year again: Does he not know that swinging the threat of nukes for everything loses it's meaning pretty quickly? I mean seriously, someone get this guy laid. Humvees in https://www.rt.com/news/243937-hmmwv-humvee-ukraine-army/ death out https://imgur.com/gallery/GKPJ7 Koramei posted:It re-stabilized, allegedly.
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Mar 7, 2016 22:33
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Koramei posted:It re-stabilized, allegedly. It seems to have a questionable history or tumbling and righting itself http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-satellite-idUSKCN0VR2R3 I like to think that the USAF is flying up there in something we have never seen, doing a quick EVA, giving it a kick, laughing so hard they can barely keep their visor from fogging, and then coming back for a landing every couple days.
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Mar 7, 2016 22:36
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B4Ctom1 posted:Again? At last the top-secret mission of the X-37 is revealed...launching to spray paint "Uncle Sam Wuz Here" on other nation's satellites.
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Mar 7, 2016 22:54
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BIG HEADLINE posted:At last the top-secret mission of the X-37 is revealed...launching to spray paint "Uncle Sam Wuz Here" on other nation's satellites. Hm, now that you mention it, after trying to leverage the poo poo out of the USA's place as a hub in global communication networks for intel purposes, the next logical thing to do would be to start tapping satellites. Alaan posted:Both of those have strong strategic implications. NK does not for them. Yeah, I know, but what does Putin have right now except for the hostility of not-Russian nations?
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Mar 7, 2016 23:23
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Nebakenezzer posted:Hm, now that you mention it, after trying to leverage the poo poo out of the USA's place as a hub in global communication networks for intel purposes, the next logical thing to do would be to start tapping satellites. Hopefully there are no anti-tampering devices https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salyut_3#On-board_gun
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Mar 8, 2016 00:00
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Nebakenezzer posted:Hm, now that you mention it, after trying to leverage the poo poo out of the USA's place as a hub in global communication networks for intel purposes, the next logical thing to do would be to start tapping satellites. One Naval base and reach into northern Europe he didn't have at all and maintaining the only Russian Naval base in the area around Syria?
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Mar 8, 2016 01:18
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BIG HEADLINE posted:At last the top-secret mission of the X-37 is revealed...launching to spray paint "Uncle Sam Wuz Here" on other nation's satellites. 
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Mar 8, 2016 01:49
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Nebakenezzer posted:Hm, now that you mention it, after trying to leverage the poo poo out of the USA's place as a hub in global communication networks for intel purposes, the next logical thing to do would be to start tapping satellites. This was a role the USAF intended for the STS and informed many of its retarded design requirements.
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Mar 8, 2016 02:39
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I thought I read that some of you like blown up tanks for some subform or something or other here 
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Mar 8, 2016 03:10
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Kesper North posted:This was a role the USAF intended for the STS and informed many of its retarded design requirements. No, tapping satellites didn't require that. Going up, grabbing an arbitrary sized sat from space, stuffing it in the bay and coming back down to the same site without actually doing a full orbit is what required that. And that's how we went from some groovy lifting body thing to a box with oversized wings that can come down and move its landing point 1100 miles. http://history.nasa.gov/sts1/pages/scota.html I'm very fond of the euphemism "However, this story involves more than an organization acting rationally".
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Mar 8, 2016 03:20
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http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russias-kirov-class-battlecruiser-fleet-is-expanding-an-1763392754 The article itself is interesting enough, but at the bottom is a picture of what should come up at the number one hit on Google Image Search when you type in 'Russian Cat': https://twitter.com/MarinaGeorgitsa/status/702087102440284160/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
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Mar 8, 2016 03:23
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xthetenth posted:No, tapping satellites didn't require that. Going up, grabbing an arbitrary sized sat from space, stuffing it in the bay and coming back down to the same site without actually doing a full orbit is what required that. And that's how we went from some groovy lifting body thing to a box with oversized wings that can come down and move its landing point 1100 miles. Huh. With that in mind, the Russian space station with an autocannon bolted on makes a lot more sense.
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Mar 8, 2016 03:35
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BIG HEADLINE posted:The article itself is interesting enough, but at the bottom is a picture of what should come up at the number one hit on Google Image Search when you type in 'Russian Cat': https://twitter.com/MarinaGeorgitsa/status/702087102440284160/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw I don't like cats but I like this cat.
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Mar 8, 2016 03:39
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Doctor Grape Ape posted:I don't like cats but I like this cat. To be fair, that cat looks like he doesn't like cats either. Also more ships need cats or dogs or goats or whatever.
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Mar 8, 2016 03:47
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admiral katsky what are your orders, sir (looks at you and then lays down and lazily bats at a piece of paper)
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Mar 8, 2016 04:08
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Wingnut Ninja posted:Also more ships need cats or dogs or goats or whatever. It needs to be a requirement. Also, I want my own Master Chief Charlie.
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Mar 8, 2016 04:12
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bewbies posted:admiral katsky what are your orders, sir Russkies, son, don't go to the litterbox without a pan.
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Mar 8, 2016 04:27
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xthetenth posted:No, tapping satellites didn't require that. Going up, grabbing an arbitrary sized sat from space, stuffing it in the bay and coming back down to the same site without actually doing a full orbit is what required that. And that's how we went from some groovy lifting body thing to a box with oversized wings that can come down and move its landing point 1100 miles. Which is why I roll my eyes at the idea that the Buran design was reached indigenously.
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Mar 8, 2016 04:32
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Godholio posted:Which is why I roll my eyes at the idea that the Buran design was reached indigenously. Hey, man, I'mma let you finish, but Buran was the best spaceplane of all ti- *is shot by the entire population of the Spaceflight Megathread*
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Mar 8, 2016 04:34
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Godholio posted:Which is why I roll my eyes at the idea that the Buran design was reached indigenously. At the very least they could've peeled off the cross-range capability through a combination of sheer width and a lot of trackless wasteland to launch over and come down on.
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Mar 8, 2016 04:40
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Wouldn't the owner of the satellite notice that their equipment had disappeared though? Seems unlikely that they'd get it back in place before the end of an orbit...
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Mar 8, 2016 07:57
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Noticing it disappeared is a lot different than noticing the enemy stole it.
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Mar 8, 2016 08:48
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At least peer-level nuclear adversaries might have a few satellites looking for exhaust plumes over the USA. They might correlate a launch with a satellite disappearing. Specially if they track space objects and can tell how the plume inserted something into an object's orbit. Of course satellite proliferation is now greater than ever and surely Pakistan (or whoever) does not have an early launch detection satellite over some american cornfields. Still said peer level adversaries might want to tell Pakistan just to have some geopolitical giggles. This is a silly scenario* without a war declaration. And if you are at war, what's the point of doing it all covertly? *: all hail president Trump
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Mar 8, 2016 12:16
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Trump wouldn't support stealing other people's satellite, Trump would make America great again so it could build its own, better, bigger, gaudier satellites. On a more serious note, is there a publicly available write up of the USAF's satellite borrowing plan anywhere? I just can't make sense of it.
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Mar 8, 2016 12:19
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FrozenVent posted:Trump wouldn't support stealing other people's satellite, Trump would make America great again so it could build its own, better, bigger, gaudier satellites. Trump would build an orbital wall to stop foreign satellites from prying on US soil.
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Mar 8, 2016 12:43
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