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TyrantWD posted:This is why I can see the GOPe being willing to shatter the party and put together a new coalition with a moderate, but unwavering, stance on immigration. If they shatter the party they're out of power for 10-20 years. By the time they put a coalition back together gay abortions with your government-mandated immigrant spouse are mandatory.
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Mar 8, 2016 15:12
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Idaho is a 32 delegate state with WTA if you break 50% so if Cruzmentum is real he could end up catching up Trump quite a bit on delegates. Michigan is also WTA-if-50% but no one is going to get more than 50% there, whereas it could happen in Idaho.
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Mar 8, 2016 15:22
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Zohar posted:nate really is just a common or garden pundit at this point the people he owned when he arrived on the scene would be saying things like 'I think Rubio will pull it out, I feel so much more energy from his campaign, and a commitment to win' or 'how could Trump win, I don't know anybody who voted for him' 'we don't know what will happen' is the pure honest truth that pundits should be saying
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Mar 8, 2016 15:24
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Peel posted:'launch me out of a cannon into the sun' is the pure honest truth that pundits should be saying
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Mar 8, 2016 15:29
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Peel posted:'we don't know what will happen' is the pure honest truth that pundits should be saying Anybody who claims to have a good model for this election is either a genius or a liar.
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Mar 8, 2016 15:30
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Antti posted:Idaho is a 32 delegate state with WTA if you break 50% so if Cruzmentum is real he could end up catching up Trump quite a bit on delegates. Michigan is also WTA-if-50% but no one is going to get more than 50% there, whereas it could happen in Idaho.
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Mar 8, 2016 15:35
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Dick Valentine posted:He met his wife on a forum dedicated to harassing and trolling Christian Weston Chandler, an autistic man from Virginia. Two souls meeting from opposite sides of the Atlantic joined together over the mutual love of bulling the mentally ill. A love story for the ages. I legitimately thought the guy "getting gaslighted to suicidal depression" referenced here was the Jeb! story.  Also has anyone used the word ratcucked yet? Ratcucked.
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Mar 8, 2016 15:36
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Most likely already posted but here is the only Idaho poll I could find: http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/905-poll-trump-leads-in-idaho-ahead-of-tuesday-s-primary quote:Here’s what [Dan Jones & Associates] finds in the new survey, conducted Feb. 17-26: DJ&A gets a C from RCP, also old
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Mar 8, 2016 15:37
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Peachstapler posted:If this was mid-February, quite good. However, Trump's polling has gone down in general so I'd expect him to win 2 of 4 at best. You say this but at least nationally he's at an all-time high
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Mar 8, 2016 15:41
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Seems like a near lock for MI, MS, maybe 50/50 in ID if you balance Sat with the poo poo poll above, HI who the gently caress knows
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Mar 8, 2016 15:43
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Peachstapler posted:We got Trump +11 there during a very good stretch for him in mid-February. Rubio was doing a hell of a lot better too (and it was before Carson dropped out and Mitt went on his media crusade). Cruz winning Idaho is likely but I gotta disagree with you --- I don't think there's a chance of him crossing the 50% threshold when he was at 19% two weeks ago. Yeah, looking at the latest polls, it's probably not going to happen. Cruzmentum might be real but not that real. Ultimately while it's a very conservative state, it doesn't seem to fit into the kind of states Cruz that has been winning (except Maine).
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Mar 8, 2016 15:45
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evilweasel posted:If they shatter the party they're out of power for 10-20 years. By the time they put a coalition back together gay abortions with your government-mandated immigrant spouse are mandatory. By 2020 they could already be strong enough to hold on to Congress, and the Senate. Six months of a Hillary or Bernie presidency will see many of those they lose come flocking back to the party. There are a lot of "social liberal, fiscal conservatives" on the Democrat side who could be won over by a reformed, moderate GOP - especially with the dim economic outlook for the next four years.
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Mar 8, 2016 15:50
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as halfway crooks posted:You say this but at least nationally he's at an all-time high
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Mar 8, 2016 15:50
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as halfway crooks posted:Seems like a near lock for MI, MS, maybe 50/50 in ID if you balance Sat with the poo poo poll above, HI who the gently caress knows that's the way I see it currently. Michigan and Mississippi are a lock, Idaho is a tossup between him and Cruz and Hawaii is a wildcard (its a caucus so I expect Trump to be at a disadvantage). mannerup fucked around with this message at 15:53 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 15:51
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Even if Trump underperforms by 10 in MI, he still wins by 10. He's got too much breathing room to lose at this point, IMO. MS was always going to vote Trump. ID and HI though, who the gently caress knows.
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Mar 8, 2016 15:51
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If the polls are even close to reality then it's going to be a good Trump day.
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Mar 8, 2016 15:56
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TyrantWD posted:By 2020 they could already be strong enough to hold on to Congress, and the Senate. Six months of a Hillary or Bernie presidency will see many of those they lose come flocking back to the party. There are a lot of "social liberal, fiscal conservatives" on the Democrat side who could be won over by a reformed, moderate GOP - especially with the dim economic outlook for the next four years. That's called 'the base'. See all the major urban areas full of upper class educated professionals. The New Deal is dead, we are now about rewarding creative professionals and making sure that the cost of social change hit's the working class but allows the upper class to preen and act progressive. Predatory economics are ok, social liberalism will cleanse your soul. Immigration reform is not only socially progressive, it takes from working class whites and drops their wages which is better for upper class liberals, and if they complain we get to call them racist and wash our sins away with demonstrations of racial tolerance. MysteriousStranger fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 15:57
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thing with ms is there's no early voting and if la's any indication voting day voters are split between him and cruz. i wouldn't say any of these are locks. probable, but losable
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Mar 8, 2016 15:58
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Peel posted:the people he owned when he arrived on the scene would be saying things like 'I think Rubio will pull it out, I feel so much more energy from his campaign, and a commitment to win' or 'how could Trump win, I don't know anybody who voted for him' Yeah, to Nate's credit, he said "we don't know because we simply can't usefully model this" about the UK elections as well.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:08
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https://twitter.com/LukeBrinker/status/707219680637886465 Drop out, Rubio. Slate Action fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 16:11
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Perfectly Safe posted:Yeah, to Nate's credit, he said "we don't know because we simply can't usefully model this" about the UK elections as well. Another great Florida poll for the Marco Maniacs: http://www.mynews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/news/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2016/3/7/exclusive_political__0.html#results
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Mar 8, 2016 16:11
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We have more details about Cruz skipping a Mississippi event with hate group leader Bryan Fisher has come out. http://www.sunherald.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/crawdaddy/article64480257.html quote:“I got a call from the national campaign chairman and he said he’s known Cruz for a long time and he’s very very ill,” State Sen. Chris McDaniel, Cruz’s Mississippi campaign chairman, said.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:11
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https://twitter.com/politico_steve/status/707212839740690432 Marco, get out.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:13
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oh god trump's poisoning his enemies now
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Mar 8, 2016 16:13
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Cruz ground game in Florida..a ruse? https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/706177128711192582 
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Mar 8, 2016 16:15
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God striking Cruz down with a plague is the best end to his campaign.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:16
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Trump clearly owns real estate in Nate Silver's head.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:18
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Peel posted:God striking Cruz down with a plague is the best end to his campaign. If God struck down Cruz with a plague, it would turn me into a devout believer.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:18
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Abel Wingnut posted:oh god trump's poisoning his enemies now Florida elemental.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:22
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:We have more details about Cruz skipping a Mississippi event with hate group leader Bryan Fisher has come out. Ted Cruz ate a Tonsil Stone. What? Ted Cruz is evolving!
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Mar 8, 2016 16:26
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Slate Action posted:Even if Trump underperforms by 10 in MI, he still wins by 10. He's got too much breathing room to lose at this point, IMO. I'm expecting MS to be closer than expected. It's the GOPe stronghold of dirty tricks.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:28
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Oiled and Ready posted:I'm expecting MS to be closer than expected. It's the GOPe stronghold of dirty tricks. Closer than expected, likely. Trump actually losing MS, nah. Oiled and Ready posted:Ted Cruz ate a Tonsil Stone. 
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Mar 8, 2016 16:30
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Oh god this has to hurt
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Mar 8, 2016 16:34
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Slate Action posted:Closer than expected, likely. Trump actually losing MS, nah. Is that pokemon literally garbage? Apropos.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:37
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Oiled and Ready posted:
*hits u on the snout with a rolled up newspaper* no bad bad
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Mar 8, 2016 16:40
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Oh god this has to hurt lol CORRECTION: NOBODY LIKES TED CRUZ
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Mar 8, 2016 16:43
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Last nights Dem town hall on fox started out as a Sanders vs Trump one on one debate before Trump backed out. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/09/us/politics/fox-news-democratic-candidates.html
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Mar 8, 2016 16:46
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Tainen posted:Last nights Dem town hall on fox started out as a Sanders vs Trump one on one debate before Trump backed out. his plate is already full of losers
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Mar 8, 2016 16:48
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Tainen posted:Last nights Dem town hall on fox started out as a Sanders vs Trump one on one debate before Trump backed out. "Fox News Forum May Signal Thaw Between Democrats and Network" Up is down, left is right. For some reason, the idea of Fox News ending up in the pocket of HRC just seems...plausible. (The article doesn't suggest anything of the sort, but as soon as it started talking about Fox courting Clinton the thought just popped in there and wouldn't go away). I'm so confused. Everything's wrong!
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Mar 8, 2016 16:58
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Tainen posted:Last nights Dem town hall on fox started out as a Sanders vs Trump one on one debate before Trump backed out. If Trump or Cruz are the candidate they'll have Hillary on a lot more.
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Mar 8, 2016 16:59
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