|
Combed Thunderclap posted:Chipping in my two cents on Colorado: it's a lock for the Dems this year, Cruz is way too religious and Trump is way too nuts for Colorado. Hillary's not a perfect fit since Colorado liberalism is much more Sanders' style, but I'd say it's solid. While I think CO is pretty solidly blue this year (unless Rubio pulls out a miracle), I do worry that if it comes down to Cruz/Trump vs. Hillary, the GOP might win just because so many jaded voters would stay home.
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 17:39
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 20:49 |
|
|
Amergin posted:While I think CO is pretty solidly blue this year (unless Rubio pulls out a miracle), I do worry that if it comes down to Cruz/Trump vs. Hillary, the GOP might win just because so many jaded voters would stay home. I don't think you have to worry about jaded democrats staying home, particularly if its against people as revolting as Cruz or Trump. The biggest worry for Democrats would be Kasich or Rubio, but neither of them are going to be the nominee.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 17:44
|
|
|
BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I don't think you have to worry about jaded democrats staying home, particularly if its against people as revolting as Cruz or Trump. Well I guess rather than jaded Democrats (read: Bernouts) I'm more worried about the independents/third-way voters/moderates who would normally vote for a Dem over Cruz/Trump, but wouldn't be able to hold their nose while voting for Hilldawg. Which makes me sad as an unenthusiastic Hilldawg supporter. When I try to discuss her merits with white male IT coworkers they always point out how icy her vagina must be, if she has one.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 17:51
|
|
|
BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I don't think you have to worry about jaded democrats staying home, particularly if its against people as revolting as Cruz or Trump. I am hopeful that Clinton would be able to exploit the heck out of the gulf on women issues between her and Kasich and might end up more like 2012.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 17:52
|
|
|
Amergin posted:Well I guess rather than jaded Democrats (read: Bernouts) I'm more worried about the independents/third-way voters/moderates who would normally vote for a Dem over Cruz/Trump, but wouldn't be able to hold their nose while voting for Hilldawg. I don't think the IT crowd is really the group I am worried about. I think most moderate/third-way/indy voters will be fine voting for Hillary in the general. (Dem Primary indies are a different breed.) Mitt Romney posted:I am hopeful that Clinton would be able to exploit the heck out of the gulf on women issues between her and Kasich and might end up more like 2012. I think she could beat Kasich, but Dems are way more afraid of someone like him than Cruz or Trump.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 17:54
|
|
|
Nate RFB posted:Basically I see D electoral map, barring some unforeseen events, being this at worst: http://www.270towin.com/maps/5L3xE Depending on how effective the GOP has been at loving with the ability to vote in FL and OH those could end up red this year (Florida likely will without some solid Dem turnout). Though taking either of those or at least Virgina should be more than possible for Dems. Taking 2, let alone all 3 again, and it's basically impossible for the GOP to win even if a bunch of other states that should be blue go red. BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I don't think you have to worry about jaded democrats staying home, particularly if its against people as revolting as Cruz or Trump. I'd believed Rubio to be the biggest threat to Hilary in the general but after seeing how readily and easily people buy in to Kasich being a moderate I think he'd be worse. People would see a moderate, while, older guy and that'd just be too appealing as 'normal' for them.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:02
|
|
|
Evil Fluffy posted:Depending on how effective the GOP has been at loving with the ability to vote in FL and OH those could end up red this year (Florida likely will without some solid Dem turnout). Though taking either of those or at least Virgina should be more than possible for Dems. Taking 2, let alone all 3 again, and it's basically impossible for the GOP to win even if a bunch of other states that should be blue go red. If the nominee is Trump or Cruz, FL and OH will belong to Democrats. Evil Fluffy posted:I'd believed Rubio to be the biggest threat to Hilary in the general but after seeing how readily and easily people buy in to Kasich being a moderate I think he'd be worse. People would see a moderate, while, older guy and that'd just be too appealing as 'normal' for them. Yeah
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:04
|
|
|
Amergin posted:While I think CO is pretty solidly blue this year (unless Rubio pulls out a miracle), I do worry that if it comes down to Cruz/Trump vs. Hillary, the GOP might win just because so many jaded voters would stay home. If she was going against a more boring establishment candidate I'd fear you have a point. A Romney vs. Hillary fight would definitely see people staying at home saying "why bother voting for Hillary" because Mittens was so boring. Yes he looked like the CEO who fired your dad but it was a boring, vanilla kind of evil that we're all used to by now. This year though it's Hillary vs. Donald "American Hitler" Trump or Hillary vs. Ted "Bible Humper" Cruz. Both of those alternatives are too terrifying and a lot of people who would otherwise be too jaded to vote Hillary will likely turn out to vote against them. Alternatively if the GOP goes full stupid at the convention it could be Hillary vs. Trump vs. Romney which could potentially give the Democrats a Reagon-esque victory.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:06
|
|
|
The bigger, better news for Dems is that if Cruz or Trump are the nominee, it greatly imperils the Republican control of the Senate. They already had 5 very difficult re-elects (Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, Pat Toomey, Rob Portman and Ron Johnson) but also have an open seat to defend in Florida, and four or five other contests that could now be in play. That would mean Hillary getting to nominate Scalia's replacement /with/ a Democrat controlled Senate.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:17
|
|
|
Lemming posted:I am very looking forward to 8 years of Hillary telling Republicans to go gently caress themselves I cannot fathom the logic behind people who say this. 8 years of either further stagnation or giving away even more in 'spirit' of compromise just fucks everyone for another near decade. I wish to god Sanders became the candidate, not because of general dislike of Hillary and I realize most of what he says will not happen with the existing congress, but that's the point. The only way anything will get done is getting back or at least shrinking the death grip the tea party has in congress. Forgetting either ones promises/policies nothing happens without congress and the one thing that Sanders has is motivating the young dipshits who stay home. This is the year the lunatics from 2010 are up so is the first chance to get rid of as many as possible. Without the slacker voters this isn't going to happen. The POTUS is the least important part of all of this, without a house and senate to enact what they talk about it doesn't matter for poo poo if nothing even makes it to a vote in congress or at least allowing SC nominees to get possibly get through. Hillary has a real chance of motivating the R base who wouldn't piss on her if she was on fire and there enough D's that are meh towards her that D turnout could gently caress Congress makeup even worse, although if trump or Cruz gets the norm this could get canceled out. So she tells R's to go gently caress themselves and we stay frozen for another 4/8 years. While not as bad as Trump/Cruz even if they somehow won if the D's at least got back the senate they can stop the insane poo poo from coming to a vote. Love or hate Hillary 2018 will be 2010 again. Even if they don't get back control in 2016 if he can keep them voting in 2018 there's at least a shot.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:23
|
|
|
Toasticle posted:I cannot fathom the logic behind people who say this. 8 years of either further stagnation or giving away even more in 'spirit' of compromise just fucks everyone for another near decade. Uh, would be pretty hard for them to have any bigger margin in the House than they already have and if anything, the momentum has shifted towards Dems.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:25
|
|
|
McAlister posted:And what the actual gently caress does GDP have to do with the population's medical needs? What if there was a plague and the GDP shrank even though medical costs spiked? Well, if GDP shrank, there'd be less opportunity to maximize profits off of healthcare, right? It makes no sense if you view it from a provision of healthcare perspective, but it makes total sense if you view it from a Capitalist "Profits Über Alles" perspective. It's a case of not what our country needs, but what it deserves, etc.  We are really driven to our own self-destruction.Thank you for that write-up, though.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:31
|
|
|
Epic High Five posted:My favorite part is when you get red regions of blue states talking about defecting to another state, like you'd hear some during the Malheur thing in Eastern Oregon, then it turns out that nobody wants them because they're just money sink regions. Republican states/regions are like ungrateful children that scream "gently caress YOU, DAD!!" and "I loving HATE YOU, EAT poo poo!!" petulantly and threaten to move out all the time but then turn around to ask for help as soon as they need gas money or a ride to the movies.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:36
|
|
|
DarkCrawler posted:I was playing with the electoral map out of interest and tried to guess which states are surefire ones for either party from what I know (not American), any misses? Here's the starting point I use for surefire states - any state that's voted the same party for at least 5 of the last 6 elections is probably 'safe'. So that map looks like this. (I draw the line at 6 since the 1988 election really fucks with things when you had crazy poo poo like California and Illinois going R, which is absurd under today's alignments.) The only one under this that is really questionable is Iowa (which has been trending pretty conservative despite consistently going D in presidential elections). We can probably assume R likely wins in most of the south (Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia have all gone R four elections in a row). That puts us at 251-200, D advantage. Throw Colorado in there as a D victory (reasonably likely, given current demographics) and the GOP nominee is instantly dead unless they can take Florida, Ohio AND Virginia, and even that only gets them a tie at 260.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:38
|
|
|
Greatbacon posted:You know, avian and swine flu never became a thing (maybe because of public health outreach, etc, etc.) but also this is the year that Donald Trump became the lead Republican presidential candidate so who the gently caress knows The potentially infected infants didn't do anything to deserve being born with microencephaly/in Republican states/in the South, though.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:40
|
|
|
Your Dunkle Sans posted:The potentially infected infants didn't do anything to deserve being born with microencephaly/in Republican states/in the South, though. At least if screenings show the child will be born with severe health problems and likely won't survive long, they have easy access to abo... oh...
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:46
|
|
|
Amergin posted:While I think CO is pretty solidly blue this year (unless Rubio pulls out a miracle), I do worry that if it comes down to Cruz/Trump vs. Hillary, the GOP might win just because so many jaded voters would stay home. If the Democrats fail at being able to rally the troops against a Cruz or especially a Trump then we deserve to loving lose. It should be the easiest messaging in the history of loving politics.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:46
|
|
|
Toasticle posted:I cannot fathom the logic behind people who say this. 8 years of either further stagnation or giving away even more in 'spirit' of compromise just fucks everyone for another near decade. I think that people are making the opposite point when they say that Hillary will stick it to the GOP. The idea is that she has enough experience to know when the GOP is going to yank the football away and will refuse to play the role of Charlie Brown for their amusement and break the cycle of GOP demands thing, President says thing might be ok, GOP demands thing + a pony, repeat.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:48
|
|
|
Shifty Pony posted:I think that people are making the opposite point when they say that Hillary will stick it to the GOP. The idea is that she has enough experience to know when the GOP is going to yank the football away and will refuse to play the role of Charlie Brown for their amusement and break the cycle of GOP demands thing, President says thing might be ok, GOP demands thing + a pony, repeat. Yeah. I don't think Hillary is going to go along with the cycle that Obama gave into for most of his presidency.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:50
|
|
|
BonoMan posted:If the Democrats fail at being able to rally the troops against a Cruz or especially a Trump then we deserve to loving lose. It should be the easiest messaging in the history of loving politics. That depends on how Cruz performs during the general. Right now I think many Dems and moderates don't know much about Cruz's policies, they just know he always speaks melodramatically and that he has a punchable face.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:51
|
|
|
BROCK LESBIAN posted:At least if screenings show the child will be born with severe health problems and likely won't survive long, they have easy access to abo... It would even most likely be a late term abortion. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:52
|
|
|
DarkCrawler posted:I was playing with the electoral map out of interest and tried to guess which states are surefire ones for either party from what I know (not American), any misses? use this map http://www.270towin.com/maps/59XKg contains a spectrum of battleground states with nevada on the blue end and north carolina on the red.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:53
|
|
|
NH isn't a "safe D" state in a Clinton vs. Trump election. It's 4 EV so it hardly matters, but it's definitely a swing state.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:53
|
|
|
Amergin posted:That depends on how Cruz performs during the general. Right now I think many Dems and moderates don't know much about Cruz's policies, they just know he always speaks melodramatically and that he has a punchable face. Literally all they need is this Lindsey Graham quote: quote:If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:54
|
|
|
Amergin posted:That depends on how Cruz performs during the general. Right now I think many Dems and moderates don't know much about Cruz's policies, they just know he always speaks melodramatically and that he has a punchable face. Cruz is despised by his own party and is only now being seen as the "at least he's not Trumpler" by establishment republicans... but yes, convincing democrats and centrists to vote for that wet fart is something that will actually happen.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:54
|
|
|
His Divine Shadow posted:I dunno what the news in the US say but over here they've been reporting the fears of the zika virus wrt damaging fetuses has been overblown and it's actually a pesticide in the water that are causing babies with microcephaly. Which as i gather has been the main cause of fear of Zika. Debunked. Their study wasn't actually a study, but a wall of words blaming Monsanto for everything and appealing to Naturalistic Fallacies.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:55
|
|
|
A Winner is Jew posted:Cruz is despised by his own party and is only now being seen as the "at least he's not Trumpler" by establishment republicans... but yes, convincing democrats and centrists to vote for that wet fart is something that will actually happen. I'm just saying the general can play out in different ways, and for many folks if the choice comes down to "melodramatic punchable face" versus "FBI investigation/baggage and looks like a witch" they may just stay home rather than vote Dem. That said I have a feeling Hillary will eviscerate Cruz if he tries to bring up Benghazi or emails during debates. His debate performances up until this latest one have been lackluster but I haven't watched any of the Dem debates (those piss me off more than the GOP ones).
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:57
|
|
|
Cruz will win the election because he will zodiac kill everyone who doesn't vote for him.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:58
|
|
|
Amergin posted:I'm just saying the general can play out in different ways, and for many folks if the choice comes down to "melodramatic punchable face" versus "FBI investigation/baggage and looks like a witch" they may just stay home rather than vote Dem. Hillary is way better against Republicans than ohter Dems
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 18:59
|
|
|
BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Hillary is way better against Republicans than ohter Dems i'm not sure this can be said with any kind of certainty
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:04
|
|
|
sudo rm -rf posted:i'm not sure this can be said with any kind of certainty To clarify, I meant 'than against other Dems.' Watch the Bengazi hearing. She just shrugs off everything. When it's Demcorats, I think that gets under her skin a little more, being told she's not "democrat" enough, etc. Like how you fight way more and over way dumber poo poo with a sibling. Though I do think she handles Republicans better than Bernie would, but that's a purely personal opinion.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:06
|
|
|
BI NOW GAY LATER posted:To clarify, I meant 'than against other Dems.' Ah, ok I see what you're saying
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:09
|
|
|
Amergin posted:I'm just saying the general can play out in different ways, and for many folks if the choice comes down to "melodramatic punchable face" versus "FBI investigation/baggage and looks like a witch" they may just stay home rather than vote Dem. Only a unicorn could have poo poo out this rainbow of wishful thinking because (a) the FBI has literally found nothing regarding the Bengazi poo poo (b) the republicans were clowned for 9 hours strait on TV when they tried to have a kangaroo court on Bengazi with her on the stand (c) bengazi is so loving tired and played out only the most fervent of freepers even bother to give two shits about it anymore. Amergin posted:That said I have a feeling Hillary will eviscerate Cruz if he tries to bring up Benghazi or emails during debates. His debate performances up until this latest one have been lackluster but I haven't watched any of the Dem debates (those piss me off more than the GOP ones). And yeah this. Cruz has the issue of thinking he's always the smartest person in a room and he's been shown time and again that he's in way over his head in just the Senate.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:10
|
|
|
A Winner is Jew posted:Only a unicorn could have poo poo out this rainbow of wishful thinking because (a) the FBI has literally found nothing regarding the Bengazi poo poo (b) the republicans were clowned for 9 hours strait on TV when they tried to have a kangaroo court on Bengazi with her on the stand (c) it's so loving tired and played out only the most fervent of freepers even bother to give two shits about it anymore. you may have forgotten our goonfriend vile rat but others have not #neverclinton
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:12
|
|
|
BI NOW GAY LATER posted:To clarify, I meant 'than against other Dems.' She's the democratic trump if you asked me. When someone says "She can take on the republicans" all i hear is "He tells it like it is", or when someone says "First woman president!" all i hear is "Successful businessman". People are riding her coattails because she's winning for no real reason, and defending her against every little slight with impotent rage. I've never missed a chance to vote for liberal policies since i turned 18, even the "unimportant" little local elections, but i really dont like her for president any more then i do trump. It makes me wish there was 17 democratic candidates running and she could have been squeezed out of politics by now.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:13
|
|
|
BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Yeah. I don't think Hillary is going to go along with the cycle that Obama gave into for most of his presidency. I definitely don't think Hillary as the same "team of rivals" delusions of grandeur that Obama had. What worries me is whether or not she's actually committed to progressive causes enough to really push leftward, such as on naming non-Geitneresque people to positions of real authority or putting a full liberal on the Court. Only way to find out is to give her the chance though.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:13
|
|
|
as halfway crooks posted:you may have forgotten our goonfriend vile rat but others have not #neverclinton I, for one, would love to read Vile Rat's SA posts on national television. Unzip and Attack posted:I definitely don't think Hillary as the same "team of rivals" delusions of grandeur that Obama had. What worries me is whether or not she's actually committed to progressive causes enough to really push leftward, such as on naming non-Geitneresque people to positions of real authority or putting a full liberal on the Court. Only way to find out is to give her the chance though. As long as Larry Summers isn't Tres Sec again
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:13
|
|
|
A Winner is Jew posted:Only a unicorn could have poo poo out this rainbow of wishful thinking because (a) the FBI has literally found nothing regarding the Bengazi poo poo (b) the republicans were clowned for 9 hours strait on TV when they tried to have a kangaroo court on Bengazi with her on the stand (c) bengazi is so loving tired and played out only the most fervent of freepers even bother to give two shits about it anymore. You still think facts matter in campaigns and debates?
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:13
|
|
|
as halfway crooks posted:you may have forgotten our goonfriend vile rat but others have not #neverclinton  Yes, how dare the democrats exploit the death of an ambassador and his staff for political gain.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:15
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 20:49 |
|
|
MattD1zzl3 posted:She's the democratic trump if you asked me. When someone says "She can take on the republicans" all i hear is "He tells it like it is", or when someone says "First woman president!" all i hear is "Successful businessman". People are riding her coattails because she's winning for no real reason, and defending her against every little slight with impotent rage. I've never missed a chance to vote for liberal policies since i turned 18, even the "unimportant" little local elections, but i really dont like her for president any more then i do trump. It makes me wish there was 17 democratic candidates running and she could have been squeezed out of politics by now. What part of her Senate Career or time as Secretary of State lead you to believe she wouldn't be a good president? I support Bernie over her and all but pretending she isn't qualified or that she is somehow equal to Trump is delusional, this isn't "impotent rage" I'm literally just curious as to what facts/events lead to these conclusions.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2016 19:15
|
|
