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Shimrra Jamaane posted:For no reason I just remembered Trump mocking that disabled NYT reporter during that rally of his some months back. gently caress that man. How can ANYONE defend that? By lying about it and stretching plausible deniability as far as they can. “I have no idea who this reporter, Serge Kovalski is, what he looks like or his level of intelligence, I don’t know if he is J.J. Watt or Muhammad Ali in his prime — or somebody of less athletic or physical ability.”
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Mar 8, 2016 23:21
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Personally I'm looking forward to the 2024 race. http://www.270towin.com/maps/aD4G8 
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Mar 8, 2016 23:24
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Personally I'm looking forward to the 2024 race. Hail Satan welcome president uhhh whoever.
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Mar 8, 2016 23:28
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Personally I'm looking forward to the 2024 race. Unless I missed the part where President Clinton lets people hunt Texas conservatives for sport, Texas isn't going blue in 2024.
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Mar 8, 2016 23:31
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Evil Fluffy posted:Unless I missed the part where President Clinton lets people hunt Texas conservatives for sport, Texas isn't going blue in 2024. If you can get her to officially propose that policy, I will pull the lever for her with relish in November instead of reluctantly!
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Mar 8, 2016 23:33
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Virginia is less and less of a swing state with each passing year. NoVa is basically a massive DC suburb and it turns out that the party that wants to gut the federal government isn't too popular with a lot of federal government employees
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Mar 8, 2016 23:35
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:For no reason I just remembered Trump mocking that disabled NYT reporter during that rally of his some months back. gently caress that man. How can ANYONE defend that? We, the Spiteful. http://exiledonline.com/we-the-spiteful/ Americans love to hate.
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Mar 8, 2016 23:40
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:Virginia is less and less of a swing state with each passing year. NoVa is basically a massive DC suburb and it turns out that the party that wants to gut the federal government isn't too popular with a lot of federal government employees This is the funniest thing because the GOP has systematically alienated basically everyone inside of the beltway to the degree were even the most gently caress YOU of lobbyists would rather vote Hillary/D and get catered to less than have some moron like Cruz or Trump come in and blow everything up so nobody gets anything.
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Mar 8, 2016 23:40
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Combed Thunderclap posted:
This is deeply disturbing, our society's perspective on sex crossed with our perspective on retributive justice makes for a supremely hosed up situation. Thanks for the link though, I keep meaning to subscribe to my fave long-form publications and this will be the week I do it.
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Mar 8, 2016 23:41
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:So playing around with 270 to win I tried to narrow the states down to those who are most likely going to go Dem and those most likely to go GOP. Does this seem reasonable? I'd modify it slightly to take off Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa as givens: http://www.270towin.com/maps/a0pLx
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Mar 9, 2016 00:27
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:So playing around with 270 to win I tried to narrow the states down to those who are most likely going to go Dem and those most likely to go GOP. Does this seem reasonable? It's been a pageish, but yeah, this is the conclusion I came to. If Republicans lose even a single one of those, they've all but lost the election. JosefStalinator posted:I'd modify it slightly to take off Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa as givens: All of them have gone at least +5 Dem in the last two elections. They're not a sure thing, but Dems have a large advantage there, even assuming the Republicans aren't hosed by their own primary. e: Lol, and they'ed have to take all three of them to make up for even one lost of the above. And RIP if Florida goes blue pretty much regardless. fool of sound fucked around with this message at 00:36 on Mar 9, 2016 |
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Mar 9, 2016 00:32
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Combed Thunderclap posted:Some of you are really amateurs at this Chaos Election business: Well, that is one of the more depressing things I've read in quite a while.
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Mar 9, 2016 00:34
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Your Dunkle Sans posted:We, the Spiteful. This is an amazing article. I especially think there's something to the "sexual frustration and envy" point. gently caress if I know what to do about all that latent anger and frustration, but I really believe he's right about where it comes from.
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Mar 9, 2016 00:36
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It's really interesting how Republicans need basically every big swing state to win while Democrats just need VA and 1-2 others to win. They don't even need Florida anymore.
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Mar 9, 2016 00:36
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As I recall it was a similar breakdown in 2012, where Romney's path to victory was a few narrow scenarios with each involving an upset sweep of most swing states, whereas for Obama it was more like "if you ONLY knock down 3 pins in the 10th frame, you still win". The only thing I can see that might undermine this is voter turnout. Obama was a fantastic motivator for GOTV, and while Trump or Cruz would serve as a motivator working in the other direction, I don't know if it will be as effective. EDIT: Here's the 2012 results: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president It looks remarkably similar to the educated guesses being posted here, and even if a few states like NV and IA go red this time around, you still have a crushing lead Bhaal fucked around with this message at 01:02 on Mar 9, 2016 |
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Mar 9, 2016 00:56
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Bhaal posted:As I recall it was a similar breakdown in 2012, where Romney's path to victory was a few narrow scenarios with each involving an upset sweep of most swing states, whereas for Obama it was more like "if you ONLY knock down 3 pins in the 10th frame, you still win". I'm sure I'm not the only one who will crawl over broken glass, rusty nails, and wasps to vote for the Democratic candidate over those two.
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Mar 9, 2016 01:02
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So, what about the theory that Trump's white rage puts PA in play?
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Mar 9, 2016 01:03
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Ogmius815 posted:This is an amazing article. I especially think there's something to the "sexual frustration and envy" point. gently caress if I know what to do about all that latent anger and frustration, but I really believe he's right about where it comes from. FYI Mark Ames has been Matt Taibbi's partner in journalism for Rolling Stone, Vice, etc.
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Mar 9, 2016 01:04
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Hellblazer187 posted:So, what about the theory that Trump's white rage puts PA in play? If PA is in play then there are a TON of other states that have already flipped his direction.
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Mar 9, 2016 01:05
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Hellblazer187 posted:So, what about the theory that Trump's white rage puts PA in play? PA is not in play.
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Mar 9, 2016 01:06
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Eschers Basement posted:Personally, I think it's going to be a terrible Hillary loss: http://www.270towin.com/maps/59Xog It's gonna be a slaughter. http://www.270towin.com/maps/qbrzR
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Mar 9, 2016 01:07
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SquadronROE posted:It's gonna be a slaughter. http://www.270towin.com/maps/qbrzR hosed up if true
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Mar 9, 2016 01:08
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Antti posted:People always seem to forget this every four years, including pundits, but there's a spectrum of states in the swing state column, and they can be thought of to be in order from reddest to bluest, meaning that the states in the middle will actually seal the election. The Republican map problem is that these states keep being bluer and bluer and the blue-tinged states keep becoming solid blue. That's what people mean when they say that PA is not a meaningful swing state, because if PA is going red, there's a whole lot of states that have already gone red that have pushed the GOP to 270 EV. From a while back but which book about the 2012 race covers Romney's polling delusions the best.
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Mar 9, 2016 01:08
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Ogmius815 posted:This is an amazing article. I especially think there's something to the "sexual frustration and envy" point. gently caress if I know what to do about all that latent anger and frustration, but I really believe he's right about where it comes from.
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Mar 9, 2016 01:12
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Eschers Basement posted:Personally, I think it's going to be a terrible Hillary loss: http://www.270towin.com/maps/59Xog lol hawaii going red
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Mar 9, 2016 01:13
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:So playing around with 270 to win I tried to narrow the states down to those who are most likely going to go Dem and those most likely to go GOP. Does this seem reasonable? VanSandman posted:The dems are going to win Virginia, because the Governor desperately wants that cabinet position. Scrub-Niggurath posted:Virginia is less and less of a swing state with each passing year. NoVa is basically a massive DC suburb and it turns out that the party that wants to gut the federal government isn't too popular with a lot of federal government employees
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Mar 9, 2016 01:16
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BitcoinRockefeller posted:From a while back but which book about the 2012 race covers Romney's polling delusions the best. I'd like to know this too. Was there a Game Change type book for 2012?
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Mar 9, 2016 01:19
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SquadronROE posted:It's gonna be a slaughter. http://www.270towin.com/maps/qbrzR Did you work for the Romney campaign?
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Mar 9, 2016 01:20
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lmao just tuned in to CNN to see the leadup to the primaries tonight and it was some "X person in 60 seconds" segment on Marissa Meyer. They made special emphasis on how dedicated she was by saying she went back to work 2 weeks after giving birth. How out of touch is that? 90% of the country is lucky if they don't have to go back to work a week later. My friend just gave birth and her job made her cover her own shifts despite giving notice that she'd be off and then cut her hours even though she was only gone less than 2 weeks. edit - then a bunch of vague concern trolling about North Korea lmao
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Mar 9, 2016 01:24
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fade5 posted:I'm not even kidding when I say that it seems like more than a few countries have chosen the strategy of "hope they go to Iraq/Syria and join ISIL" to deal with an overabundance of sexually frustrated young men. I've read a few pop history takes on how this has shaped societies in general, how military service and the clergy generally serve to use up a culture's spare men. Anyone too young or too poor to be good marriage material gets packed off far away from women and ideally dies without making too much of a fuss about it. You can see a microcosm of this in FLDS communities, where polygamy means there are way more single men than single women so powerful men exile the boys they don't want to compete with. Before modern medicine I imagine death in childbirth created a similar gender imbalance even without polygamy. Edit: Choice quote from the linked article quote:If the left wants to understand American voters, it needs to once and for all stop sentimentalizing them as inherently decent, well-meaning people being duped by a tiny cabal of evil oligarchs—because the awful truth is that they’re mean, spiteful jerks being duped by a tiny cabal of evil oligarchs.
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Mar 9, 2016 01:28
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Epic High Five posted:lmao just tuned in to CNN to see the leadup to the primaries tonight and it was some "X person in 60 seconds" segment on Marissa Meyer. They made special emphasis on how dedicated she was by saying she went back to work 2 weeks after giving birth. Yeah, I was thinking about "tuning in just to see" too and then I remember that they don't actually show any real content. And besides, why watch CNN when you can read noted New York Times Columnist David Brooks' latest column? Don't worry, you don't need to actually read it, just know that the headline is "It's Not Too Late!" It also contains paragraphs like this: quote:The hour is late and the odds may be long. But there is still hope. It’s a moment for audacity, not settling for Ted Cruz simply because he’s the Titanic you know. Could you say it's the time to appreciate...the audacity of hope? 
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Mar 9, 2016 01:34
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In which new crazy person Governor Matt Bevin tries to film a smug attack ad against KY Democrats accusing them of refusing to convene to approve his insane, terrible budget, but only manages to look like an idiot by filming in the wrong location hours before the house convenes and also revealing that no Republicans are there eitherquote:Other cuts for K-12 that Bevin proposed last week include $2 million less each year for family resource and youth services centers, $2 million less each year for programs that include safe schools and professional development, and $1 million less for career and technical education – another area where the state board of education has sought a major funding increase. (it also proposes cutting 13 million from the University of Kentucky quote:What Bevin’s video fails to mention—besides the fact that Republicans don’t seem to be present, either—is that Kentucky’s legislative chambers don’t convene until 4 PM on Mondays.
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Mar 9, 2016 01:36
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smg77 posted:I'd like to know this too. Was there a Game Change type book for 2012? I haven't read it yet, but I think the book you're looking for is Double Down, by the Game Change authors.
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Mar 9, 2016 01:37
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Mr Jaunts posted:I haven't read it yet, but I think the book you're looking for is Double Down, by the Game Change authors. This is it. It's nowhere near as good, unfortunately.
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Mar 9, 2016 01:47
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/707366604833689600
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Mar 9, 2016 01:56
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Yay  KY goons, is there a sense of fatigue/anger with Bevin already in the state, or was this a pretty safe district for the Dems anyway? I guess I'm asking, can the increasing resentment toward Bevin's insanity hurt Rand later in the year?
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Mar 9, 2016 02:01
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Double Down was OK but the 2008 election was alot crazier and more interesting.
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Mar 9, 2016 02:05
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Franco Potente posted:Yay The democrats in the KY legislature are the evil blue dogs that were purged from the party at the national level by the tea party wave. "Sure, they hold these positions now, but once they get to Washington they'll vote for Reid/Pelosi!" Seems to have had a lot of success and Kentucky voters seem to be willing to vote split.
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Mar 9, 2016 02:14
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The 2012 election was a wet fart. Sure the stakes were somewhat high; however, half of the country was obsessed with huffing their own farts and trying to expose """the truth""". I'm totally down with the notion that statistics can be manipulated and framed in particular ways to be deceptive, like not even touching the fact that most people's math ability and understanding leaves a lot to be desired or never mind that correlation and causation are easily confused. But, we had Mr Internet Blogger just picking numbers out of a hat and adding/subtracting them as he saw fit to published polling, like the dude sure as poo poo didn't publish anything that resembled a methodology. Common Core gets a bunch of bullshit about "magic math", but this is what New Math got us in TYOOL 2012. The more insane thing about this is that noted Serious Person Karl Rove pulled the same exact stunt on Fox News. 2012 was the election of hand waving rhetoric, 2016 has been just straight up insanity considering all of the different avenues it's taking (theocracy, classic fascism, etc).
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Mar 9, 2016 02:15
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https://twitter.com/katyturnbc/status/707358990485815296 It's like he's screaming "YOU PEOPLE ARE loving RUBES" without opening his mouth. I'm almost legit curious about where he's going with this.
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