HI, ID, MI, MS GOP AND DEM PRIMARIES MAR 8. 8pm ET - Trump just raised the steaks

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > HI, ID, MI, MS GOP AND DEM PRIMARIES MAR 8. 8pm ET - Trump just raised the steaks

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silicone thrills: Jan 9, 2008; I paint things

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Is this an Onion photo?

It is not. Idaho is a weird place.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:04

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# ? Jun 9, 2024 03:17

fknlo: Jul 6, 2009; Fun Shoe

quote:

HARRY ENTEN 11:03 PM
It�s possible that Clinton closes this gap, but people should understand that a 33,000+ vote deficit is a lot with 74 percent of the precincts reporting. Clinton�s going to need a lot of heavy lifting from the remaining votes out.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:04

Swedgin: Aug 22, 2006; by exmarx

Jimong5 posted:

that guy might want to check his math again, its a total of 45k, a net of 15k

yeah, he just clarified that it's 15k

DD retracting?

https://twitter.com/esotericcd/status/707415872730755072

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:04

dorkasaurus_rex: Jun 10, 2005; gawrsh do you think any women will be there

can somebody explain the Michigan delegate math to me?? like how much are Bernie and Hillary getting if things stay the same??

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:04

Boosted_C5: Feb 16, 2008; Can't post for 5 years!; Grimey Drawer

LOL at anyone who thinks 7% of Democrats voting in the GOP primary was Over confident Hillary voters.

Trump is pulling legitimate committed votes from whites in Michigan, who in the past have skewed more Democratic than whites nationally.

Michigan will be a swing state this fall. Clinton has fully supported the rape and pillage of Michigan jobs.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:04

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:

MIGF I heard that Donald Trump has pledged to bomb Israel if elected, could I get your thoughts on this

Define what Trump considers to be within Israel's borders.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:04

Hadaka Apron: Feb 12, 2015

Maybe Bloomberg's announcement that he definitely wouldn't run helped Bernie?

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:05

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

"I'm at Hillary's HQ where there was supposed to be a victory party but she already flew to Florida now."

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:05

Nanomashoes: Aug 18, 2012

fknlo posted:

It's possible?

You know what else is possible?

President Sanders. Say it with me.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:05

Plinkey: Aug 4, 2004; by Fluffdaddy

dorkasaurus_rex posted:

can somebody explain the Michigan delegate math to me?? like how much are Bernie and Hillary getting if things stay the same??

The same I think.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:05

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

Swedgin posted:

https://twitter.com/glennthrush/status/707415600776216576

https://twitter.com/GlennThrush/status/707416244979417089

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:05

Jewel Repetition: Dec 24, 2012; Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Idaho "too close to call" this early, could be good news for Trump that it's at least not a Cruz blowout.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:05

Vhak lord of hate: Jun 6, 2008; I AM DRINK THE BLOOD OF JESUS

Swedgin posted:

https://twitter.com/glennthrush/status/707415600776216576

good bye deleted wrong tweet

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:05

Dead Cosmonaut: Nov 14, 2015; by FactsAreUseless

when will Bernie Sanders and his supporters go away? :qq:

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:05

TraderStav: May 19, 2006; It feels like I was standing my entire life and I just sat down

Plinkey posted:

The 18-35 ironic trump vote.

Hipsters killed Clinton.

I know people that literally did just this.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:06

fknlo: Jul 6, 2009; Fun Shoe

quote:

NATE SILVER 11:04 PM
I said in our Slack chat today that I had a �gut feeling� that Sanders could beat his polling in Michigan. I also said, for the record, that you should mostly ignore that gut feeling. But it wasn�t a total shot in the dark. There were a few things that made me think a closer-than-expected result was possible:

Our demographic model, as opposed to our polling model, suggested that Michigan could be relatively competitive. It had Sanders winning Michigan by 4 in an even national race. The national race isn�t even � instead, Clinton is up by 13 percentage points in our national poll average. But still, that would extrapolate to a high-single-digit or very-low-double-digit win for Clinton, and not the blowout pollsters were expecting.
As I wrote earlier today, complacency was a risk for Clinton voters in Michigan, especially with an open primary with voters potentially casting ballots in the Republican contest instead. �In sports, we�d call Michigan a �let-down game,�� I said.
Michigan has a history of polling upsets, such as John McCain winning the Republican primary in 2000 and John Engler beating Jim Blanchard in the gubernatorial race in 1992 despite being way behind.
Basically, I�m not sure that Michigan was ever really a 20-point race, as polls had it. Based on the demographics of the state, it probably narrowly favored Clinton. But then, perhaps some of her voters didn�t show up, or voted in the GOP primary instead, because it didn�t look like Clinton needed their vote. That might potentially be enough to push Sanders over the top, although it will be very close.

By the way, this is part of why we try to approach the primaries from multiple perspectives. Our polling averages are a useful tool, but not the only one we look at.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:06

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

Tonight should send a clear signal to the Clinton campaign: Unless she runs on her record of killing muslims as strongly as Trump runs on building the wall, she will not win a general election.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:06

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

Trump still can't get a majority of votes in any state and keeps losing to Cruz in head to head polling. So sad. Keeps losing! What a mess. A real, sad mess

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:06

biznatchio: Mar 31, 2001; Buglord

fknlo posted:

Probably Flint too?

Flint's part of the huge 5th district, so it's hard to tell whether it's reported in or not at all; but it's only a population of 99k compared to Detroit's 688k. Detroit will be the big decider by far.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:06

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

Vhak lord of hate posted:

good bye deleted wrong tweet

NO CLINTON WILL GET 50000 VOTES OUTTA THEM THAR HILLS

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:06

Philip Rivers: Mar 15, 2010

Jesus Christ MSNBC is trying so hard to avoid saying Sanders won Michigan oh my goodness

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:06

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

dorkasaurus_rex posted:

can somebody explain the Michigan delegate math to me?? like how much are Bernie and Hillary getting if things stay the same??

They will get the same number of delegates +/- one a piece.

The Democratic primary math is really easy: every state is strictly proportional. Multiply their percent by the number of delegates available and that's how many they get.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:06

DAD LOST MY IPOD: Feb 3, 2012; Fats Dominar is on the case

My Imaginary GF posted:

Define what Trump considers to be within Israel's borders.

He specified Haifa and Tel Aviv last I checked

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:06

meanolmrcloud: Apr 5, 2004; rock out with your stock out

The Kingfish posted:

There is a major seminary in Holland so yeah.

I have an inlaw who is a principal at a school around holland. He is the only Jewish person for hundreds of miles around, and despite being a hulking weightlifter athlete type, is honestly afraid to let people know. When he does, people hesitate and stare agog. He says he hates western Michigan constantly.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:06

Jewel Repetition: Dec 24, 2012; Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Trump winning Idaho by 3.5% with 2.2% reporting

Bad for Trump since he needs a big early lead to overcome the demographic shift that happens over time as votes are counted. But who knows!

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:07

Tercio: Jan 30, 2003

Dead Cosmonaut posted:

when will Bernie Sanders and his supporters go away?

...and by the way please come back in November, you starry-eyed Communist naifs.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:07

fknlo: Jul 6, 2009; Fun Shoe

Nanomashoes posted:

You know what else is possible?

President Sanders. Say it with me.

He better start pulling out some pretty big wins delegate wise.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:07

Boosted_C5: Feb 16, 2008; Can't post for 5 years!; Grimey Drawer

How is this race not called for Sanders?

He is up by 35,000 votes, and with 2/3 of Wayne County in Clinton only has a margin there of 25,000. She's not running up +35,000 on Sanders in only 1/3 of the Wayne County vote. Either Sanders wins or the Democrats steal another election in their grand tradition.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:08

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

fknlo posted:

"By the way, this is part of why we try to approach the primaries from multiple perspectives."

Yes, this fits in well with the 99% chance they gave Clinton to win.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:08

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Jewel Repetition posted:

Trump winning Idaho by 3.5% with 2.2% reporting

Bad for Trump since he needs a big early lead to overcome the demographic shift that happens over time as votes are counted. But who knows!

If rubio isn't performing well in subburbs [spoiler: he's not] it's anyone's game.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:08

Jewel Repetition: Dec 24, 2012; Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Yes Bernie got Michigan who cares

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:08

A GIANT PARSNIP: Apr 13, 2010; Too much fuckin' eggnog

lmao trump leading by 4% in iowa with 2% reporting

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:08

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

Boosted_C5 posted:

How is this race not called for Sanders?

He is up by 35,000 votes, and with 2/3 of Wayne County in Clinton only has a margin there of 25,000. She's not running up +35,000 on Sanders in only 1/3 of the Wayne County vote. Either Sanders wins or the Democrats steal another election in their grand tradition.

they will be calling it in the next 10 mins or so

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:08

BouncingBuckyBalls: Feb 15, 2011

Jewel Repetition posted:

Yes Bernie got Michigan who cares

Seems the people covering the news don't.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:09

Nanomashoes: Aug 18, 2012

fknlo posted:

He better start pulling out some pretty big wins delegate wise.

It's possible.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:09

A GIANT PARSNIP: Apr 13, 2010; Too much fuckin' eggnog

Jewel Repetition posted:

Trump winning Idaho by 3.5% with 2.2% reporting

Bad for Trump since he needs a big early lead to overcome the demographic shift that happens over time as votes are counted. But who knows!

otoh idaho is a giant rural poo poo hole so the typical rural early/city later pattern doesn't apply

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:09

Venom Snake: Feb 19, 2014; by Nyc_Tattoo

Nanomashoes posted:

It's possible.

He would need to win every single state till the convention by 16%.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:09

Nanomashoes: Aug 18, 2012

Venom Snake posted:

He would need to win every single state till the convention by 16%.

It's possible?

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:10

Tercio: Jan 30, 2003

https://twitter.com/freddiedeboer/status/707418267246264320

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:11

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# ? Jun 9, 2024 03:17

OMG JC a Bomb!: Jul 13, 2004; We are the Invisible Spatula. We are the Grilluminati. We eat before and after dinner. We eat forever. And eventually... eventually we will lead them into the dining room.

BouncingBuckyBalls posted:

Seems the people covering the news don't.

Shockingly the corporate media prefers politicians that they can buy.

# ? Mar 9, 2016 05:11

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > HI, ID, MI, MS GOP AND DEM PRIMARIES MAR 8. 8pm ET - Trump just raised the steaks

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