China Economy Megathread

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > China Economy Megathread

Krispy Wafer: Jul 26, 2002; I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat; Grimey Drawer

Fojar38 posted:

A decade of no-growth means that China is going to have to eat crow regarding a lot of their announced ambitions.

I was reading that there are still lots of productivity gains to be made with modern mining and manufacturing methods. In regards to all their excess steel capacity, they will be able to close older less efficient operations and ramp up the shiny new factories. Which could increase growth in areas the Japanese couldn't since they were already pretty efficient.

Only problem is shiny new factories don't need as many Chinese to work them. So increased productivity is going to also increase unemployment. Not that we'll know since Chinese unemployment's been suspiciously stuck at around 4.1% (very close to full employment) since 2010 except for a few quarters when it was even less than that.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 19:40

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 17, 2024 18:41

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Fojar38 posted:

A decade of no-growth means that China is going to have to eat crow regarding a lot of their announced ambitions.

I am sure that China will continue announcing that they GDP has grown by 7% and that they will have a moon base in 10 years for the foreseeable future.

Relax friend, everything is fine.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 19:47

Adventure Pigeon: Nov 8, 2005; I am a master storyteller.

I wonder, at what point, does the unspoken "You don't try to change the government and we make sure the country remains prosperous" contract that exists between the people and the state gets called into question. A dead decade sounds pretty bad for that. Of course, there's always the "There's Japan/Korea/India/Philippines/Vietnam/Thailand/etc and they have OUR lands", but a genuine recession could raise the stakes a lot.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 19:53

menino: Jul 27, 2006; Pon De Floor

Japan's per capita GDP grew at roughly the same rate at the rest of the developed world throughout the 90s

# ? Mar 11, 2016 19:58

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

Krispy Kareem posted:

I was reading that there are still lots of productivity gains to be made with modern mining and manufacturing methods. In regards to all their excess steel capacity, they will be able to close older less efficient operations and ramp up the shiny new factories. Which could increase growth in areas the Japanese couldn't since they were already pretty efficient.

Only problem is shiny new factories don't need as many Chinese to work them. So increased productivity is going to also increase unemployment. Not that we'll know since Chinese unemployment's been suspiciously stuck at around 4.1% (very close to full employment) since 2010 except for a few quarters when it was even less than that.

menino posted:

Japan's per capita GDP grew at roughly the same rate at the rest of the developed world throughout the 90s

If China has similar growth to other countries at its level of development it's going to be in for a nasty surprise. Look at Russia, Brazil, Argentina, etc. Looking at this website most middle-income countries do about 5% GDP growth in a good year, and that's without demographic issues. China will probably do worse than that in the short-term future to balance out the last 15 years of hyper-growth and because of the banking issues. Then in 15 or 20 years when the demographic bomb implodes China like Japan will be completely hosed. Arguably even more so, at least Japan could theoretically fix the problem with more immigration and better family policy and just don't because of political dysfunction, with China it's going to be actually impossible to fix because 1.5 billion people can't really be topped up with immigration

icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 20:24 on Mar 11, 2016

# ? Mar 11, 2016 20:11

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

icantfindaname posted:

If China has similar growth to other countries at its level of development it's going to be in for a nasty surprise. Look at Russia, Brazil, Argentina, etc. Looking at this website most middle-income countries do about 5% GDP growth in a good year, and that's without demographic issues. China will probably do worse than that in the short-term future to balance out the last 15 years of hyper-growth. Then in 15 or 20 years when the demographic bomb implodes China like Japan will be completely hosed. Arguably even more so, at least Japan could theoretically fix the problem with more immigration and better family policy and just don't because of political dysfunction, with China it's going to be actually impossible to fix because 1.5 billion people can't really be topped up with immigration

You underestimate human desperation. I think, if China opened itself to immigration from the developing world, you could see a migration of tens, if not hundreds, of millions.

Unfortunately, China is too xenophobic to open its labor market to Syrians and Sub-Saharan Africans.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 20:25

Krispy Wafer: Jul 26, 2002; I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat; Grimey Drawer

menino posted:

Japan's per capita GDP grew at roughly the same rate at the rest of the developed world throughout the 90s

Really?

Japan grew in the 90's. But it's growth slowed to a fraction of the prior decade and was dwarfed by U.S. and Euro Zone growth.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 20:31

Mozi: Apr 4, 2004; Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die; Nap Ghost

icantfindaname posted:

If China has similar growth to other countries at its level of development it's going to be in for a nasty surprise. Look at Russia, Brazil, Argentina, etc. Looking at this website most middle-income countries do about 5% GDP growth in a good year, and that's without demographic issues. China will probably do worse than that in the short-term future to balance out the last 15 years of hyper-growth and because of the banking issues. Then in 15 or 20 years when the demographic bomb implodes China like Japan will be completely hosed. Arguably even more so, at least Japan could theoretically fix the problem with more immigration and better family policy and just don't because of political dysfunction, with China it's going to be actually impossible to fix because 1.5 billion people can't really be topped up with immigration

Good news, large portions of the Middle East and equatorial regions will be uninhabitable in the future and there will be a lot of people looking for somewhere else to go!

# ? Mar 11, 2016 20:33

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

Krispy Kareem posted:

Really?

Japan grew in the 90's. But it's growth slowed to a fraction of the prior decade and was dwarfed by U.S. and Euro Zone growth.

Well, the EU includes poorer countries with faster growth than the UK/France/Germany. Japan did pretty OK compared to them. Japan actually appears to have outperformed France and only slightly underperformed Germany.

It was beaten handily by the US though

icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Mar 11, 2016

# ? Mar 11, 2016 20:45

Krispy Wafer: Jul 26, 2002; I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat; Grimey Drawer

icantfindaname posted:

Well, the EU includes poorer countries with faster growth than the UK/France/Germany. Japan did pretty OK compared to them. Japan actually appears to have outperformed France and only slightly underperformed Germany.

It was beaten handily by the US though

USA! USA! USA!

Our infrastructure may be crumbling, our poor babies die at alarming rates, but hot drat those GDP numbers.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 21:03

OXBALLS DOT COM: Sep 11, 2005; by FactsAreUseless; Young Orc

Isn't most of that gdp growth in the us bullshit like financial products though?

# ? Mar 11, 2016 22:25

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Mange Mite posted:

Isn't most of that gdp growth in the us bullshit like financial products though?

You know that GDP represents more than manufacturing right

# ? Mar 11, 2016 22:33

Myriarch: May 14, 2013

icantfindaname posted:

Well, the EU includes poorer countries with faster growth than the UK/France/Germany. Japan did pretty OK compared to them. Japan actually appears to have outperformed France and only slightly underperformed Germany.

It was beaten handily by the US though

Are we looking at the same graphs? France in 1991 had a gdp per capita of 28500 and ended 2002 with 33500 - a growth of 15%. Japan in 1991 is at 32500 and ends 2002 with 34500 - growth of just 6%.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 23:09

coffeetable: Feb 5, 2006; TELL ME AGAIN HOW GREAT BRITAIN WOULD BE IF IT WAS RULED BY THE MERCILESS JACKBOOT OF PRINCE CHARLES

YES I DO TALK TO PLANTS ACTUALLY

Mange Mite posted:

Isn't most of that gdp growth in the us bullshit like financial products though?

US industrial production is up 70% since 1990. GDP is up ~85% in the same period.

Here's per-industry growth figures if you're interested. The financial sector is doing better than manufacturing, but to my eye it looks like software-related stuff has been doing the best. Oh, and oil.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 23:13

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

Myriarch posted:

Are we looking at the same graphs? France in 1991 had a gdp per capita of 28500 and ended 2002 with 33500 - a growth of 15%. Japan in 1991 is at 32500 and ends 2002 with 34500 - growth of just 6%.

Never mind, I'm not sure what I was counting there. But yeah you're right, although stopping at 2002 is weird and if you go to the present French growth is 22% to Japan's 18%, which is a lot less bad than 15 vs 6

icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Mar 11, 2016

# ? Mar 11, 2016 23:27

Krispy Wafer: Jul 26, 2002; I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat; Grimey Drawer

icantfindaname posted:

I was counting by total increase not percent. But yeah you're right, although stopping at 2002 is weird and if you go to the present French growth is 22% to Japan's 18%, which is a lot less bad than 15 vs 6

It's called a lost decade, not lost decades.

Japan has been doing better in more recent years. If you ignore earthquakes and nuclear meltdowns.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 23:36

Mozi: Apr 4, 2004; Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die; Nap Ghost

Also if you do it as a ratio of GDP to population.

Which isn't necessarily a good thing, of course.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 00:00

Uncle Jam: Aug 20, 2005; Perfect

Also I feel having been to both China and Japan that China becoming like Japan would be a gigantic QoL boost for most of the people in the country. Its kind of silly to compare them like that.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 04:23

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

It's more like "China is going to stall like Japan but with only a fraction of Japan's living standard."

A lot of people also make the comparison because the "When China Rules the World" rhetoric is very similar to what people thought about Japan during it's debt-fueled growth binge.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 04:36

Mr Luxury Yacht: Apr 16, 2012

Fojar38 posted:

A lot of people also make the comparison because the "When China Rules the World" rhetoric is very similar to what people thought about Japan during it's debt-fueled growth binge.

It is pretty funny looking back at movies from the 80s where everyone's vision of the future is everything being owned by Japanese conglomerates.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 07:11

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

All new trends continue forever. I want to do a cyberpunk future set in Vancouver 2050 that is 99% mainland chinese populated and a 1 bedroom condo costs a TRILLION dollars. Trends don't lie.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 09:07

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

Fojar38 posted:

A lot of people also make the comparison because the "When China Rules the World" rhetoric is very similar to what people thought about Japan during it's debt-fueled growth binge.

I still want a thriller with Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes on how chinese companies are going to take over the world.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 10:20

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Toplowtech posted:

I still want a thriller with Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes on how chinese companies are going to take over the world.

Looper is probably the closest you are going to get.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 10:25

Fill Baptismal: Dec 15, 2008

Yeah the whole trend of movies playing up impending Chinese dominance is definitely going to be thought of as a very "00's" thing in a decade or so, the way we associate fear over Japanese megacorps as an 80's thing.

# ? Mar 13, 2016 07:03

Man Whore: Jan 6, 2012; ASK ME ABOUT SPHERICAL CATS
=3

So who's going to be the next country that will own all of us in the far future? India?

# ? Mar 13, 2016 14:57

Spazzle: Jul 5, 2003

Man Whore posted:

So who's going to be the next country that will own all of us in the far future? India?

Rootless transnational wealth.

# ? Mar 13, 2016 15:05

Krispy Wafer: Jul 26, 2002; I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat; Grimey Drawer

Man Whore posted:

So who's going to be the next country that will own all of us in the far future? India?

# ? Mar 13, 2016 19:34

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

Man Whore posted:

So who's going to be the next country that will own all of us in the far future? India?

Nigeria. When AFRICA RULES THE WORLD.

# ? Mar 13, 2016 20:42

Goa Tse-tung: Feb 11, 2008; ;3; Yams Fan

Spazzle posted:

Rootless transnational wealth.

The Global Imperium of Wealth

# ? Mar 14, 2016 12:32

throw to first DAMN IT: Apr 10, 2007; This whole thread has been raging at the people who don't want Saracen invasion to their homes

Perhaps you too should be more accepting of their cultures

Man Whore posted:

So who's going to be the next country that will own all of us in the far future? India?

India will unleash the it's strategic gold reserves, causing the value of gold to drop. Despite no currency worth poo poo being on gold standard anymore, economies around the world will crash anyway. Rip everything.

# ? Mar 14, 2016 12:45

feedmegin: Jul 30, 2008

Spazzle posted:

Rootless transnational wealth.

Basically it's all going to go a bit Snowcrash. The People's Republic of McDonalds.

# ? Mar 14, 2016 12:47

Avshalom: Feb 14, 2012; by Lowtax

What is the country of China, if not the dream of a madman? Imagine some poor fevered person smiling as they conjure up misted spire mountains and turquoise glaciers and bleak dove-coloured desert and marcasite cities all packed into the same borders. I have dreams too. In my dreams I receive spiritual and sexual truths from the languishing ghost of Ariel Sharon. We explore grey ragged bushland and the limestone mazes of old Jerusalem. I've dreamt that I'm in Australia, I've dreamt that I'm in Israel, but never in my life have I dreamt that I'm in China. What would it be like to dream that you're in China? Which controversial dignitary would you gently caress? What sort of livestock would you raise amongst your gardened hillsides? I somehow never realised that oyster sauce contains real oysters and now I'm having to adjust to a diet without it and it's massively disrupting my lifestyle.

# ? Mar 14, 2016 12:54

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

Avshalom posted:

What is the country of China, if not the dream of a madman? Imagine some poor fevered person smiling as they conjure up misted spire mountains and turquoise glaciers and bleak dove-coloured desert and marcasite cities all packed into the same borders. I have dreams too. In my dreams I receive spiritual and sexual truths from the languishing ghost of Ariel Sharon. We explore grey ragged bushland and the limestone mazes of old Jerusalem. I've dreamt that I'm in Australia, I've dreamt that I'm in Israel, but never in my life have I dreamt that I'm in China. What would it be like to dream that you're in China? Which controversial dignitary would you gently caress? What sort of livestock would you raise amongst your gardened hillsides? I somehow never realised that oyster sauce contains real oysters and now I'm having to adjust to a diet without it and it's massively disrupting my lifestyle.

Wtf are you doing here? Auspol needs you.

# ? Mar 14, 2016 13:14

Ratoslov: Feb 15, 2012; Now prepare yourselves! You're the guests of honor at the Greatest Kung Fu Cannibal BBQ Ever!

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Wtf are you doing here? Auspol needs you.

Avshalom is D&D's Superman. She's needed everywhere.

# ? Mar 14, 2016 13:21

OXBALLS DOT COM: Sep 11, 2005; by FactsAreUseless; Young Orc

themrguy posted:

Yeah the whole trend of movies playing up impending Chinese dominance is definitely going to be thought of as a very "00's" thing in a decade or so, the way we associate fear over Japanese megacorps as an 80's thing.

Are there really a lot of movies doing that, though? It seems like msot of them just pander to the Chinese audience, which isn't really the same thing.

# ? Mar 14, 2016 13:27

AtomikKrab: Jul 17, 2010; Keep on GOP rolling rolling rolling rolling.

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Wtf are you doing here? Auspol needs you.

Avshalom is the hero auspol needs but does not deserve.

# ? Mar 15, 2016 01:08

hailthefish: Oct 24, 2010

Avshalom posted:

What is the country of China, if not the dream of a madman? Imagine some poor fevered person smiling as they conjure up misted spire mountains and turquoise glaciers and bleak dove-coloured desert and marcasite cities all packed into the same borders. I have dreams too. In my dreams I receive spiritual and sexual truths from the languishing ghost of Ariel Sharon. We explore grey ragged bushland and the limestone mazes of old Jerusalem. I've dreamt that I'm in Australia, I've dreamt that I'm in Israel, but never in my life have I dreamt that I'm in China. What would it be like to dream that you're in China? Which controversial dignitary would you gently caress? What sort of livestock would you raise amongst your gardened hillsides? I somehow never realised that oyster sauce contains real oysters and now I'm having to adjust to a diet without it and it's massively disrupting my lifestyle.

WTB an I/P thread where only Avshalom may post.

# ? Mar 15, 2016 04:56

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

quote:

Exclusive: China central bank to Fed: A little help, please?

REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE
Confronted with a plunge in its stock markets last year, China's central bank swiftly reached out to the U.S. Federal Reserve, asking it to share its play book for dealing with Wall Street's "Black Monday" crash of 1987.

The request came in a July 27 email from a People's Bank of China official with a subject line: "Your urgent assistance is greatly appreciated!"

In a message to a senior Fed staffer, the PBOC's New York-based chief representative for the Americas, Song Xiangyan, pointed to the day's 8.5 percent drop in Chinese stocks and said "my Governor would like to draw from your good experience."

It is not known whether the PBOC had contacted the Fed to deal with previous incidents of market turmoil. The Chinese central bank and the Fed had no comment when reached by Reuters.

In a Reuters analysis last year, Fed insiders, former Fed employees and economists said that there was no official hotline between the PBOC and the Fed and that the Chinese were often reluctant to engage at international meetings.

The Chinese market crash triggered steep declines across global financial markets and within a few hours the Fed sent China's central bank a trove of publicly-available documents detailing the U.S. central bank's actions in 1987.

Fed policymakers started a two-day policy meeting the next day and took note of China�s stock sell-off, according the meeting�s minutes. Several said a Chinese economic slowdown could weigh on America.

Financial market contagion from China was one of the reasons cited by the Fed in September when it put off a rate hike that many analysts had expected, a sign of how important China has become both as an industrial powerhouse and as a financial market.

NO SECRETS

The messages, which Reuters obtained through an Freedom of Information Act request, show how alarmed Beijing has become over the deepening financial turmoil and offer a rare insight into one of the least understood major central banks.

The exchanges also show that while the two central banks have a collegial relationship, they might not share secrets even during a crisis.

"Could you please inform us ASAP about the major measures you took at the time," Song asked the director of the Fed's International Finance Division, Steven Kamin in the July 27 email.

The message registered in Kamin's account just after 11 a.m. in Washington. Kamin quickly replied from his Blackberry: "We'll try to get you something soon."

What followed five hours later was a 259-word summary of how the Fed worked to calm markets and prevent a recession after the S&P 500 stock index tumbled 20 percent on Oct. 19, 1987.

Kamin also sent notes to guide PBOC officials through the many dozens of pages of Fed transcripts, statements and reports that were attached to the email.

All of the attached documents had long been available on the Fed's website and it is unclear if they played a role in shaping Beijing's actions.

Kamin's documents detail how the Fed began issuing statements the day after the market crash, known as Black Monday, pledging to supply markets with plenty of cash so they could function.

By the time Song wrote to Kamin, China had spent a month fighting a stock market slide and many of the actions taken by the PBOC and other Chinese authorities shared the contours of the Fed's 1987 game plan.

DESPERATE MEASURES

The July 27 plunge in the Shanghai Composite Index was the biggest one-day fall since 2007 and by then the market had lost nearly a third of its value over six weeks.

China's central bank had already cut interest rates on June 27 in similar fashion to the Fed's swift move to ease short-term rates in 1987.

Song told Kamin the PBOC was particularly interested in the details of the Fed's use of repurchase agreements to temporarily inject cash into the U.S. banking system in 1987.

The PBOC had increased cash injections in June and ramped up repurchase agreements in August as stocks continued to slide. The PBOC also eased policy on Aug. 11 by allowing a 2 percent devaluation in the yuan currency. (Graphic: here)

As Song and Kamin exchanged messages on July 27 and 28, other Chinese authorities were busy trying to contain the crash.

China's securities regulator said on July 27 it was prepared to buy shares to stabilize the stock market and that authorities would deal severely with anyone making "malicious" bets that stocks would fall.

In 1987, the Fed contacted banks directly and encouraged them to meet "legitimate funding needs" of their customers, according to Kamin's email to Song.

In addition to its pledges and cajoling, the U.S. central bank in 1987 eased collateral restrictions on Wall Street and tried to calm markets by intervening in trading earlier than normal. The U.S. economy continued to grow, eventually entering recession in 1990.

The central bank in Beijing does not have as free a hand to conduct policy as does the Fed, which answers to the U.S. Congress but operates independently from the administration.

The PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan implements policies ultimately decided by political leaders in Beijing and lacks the authority to lead debate or shed light on decision-making.

China's vice finance minister told Reuters last year Chinese supervisors needed to learn from countries like the United States.

Premier Li Keqiang said last month China's regulators did not respond sufficiently but China had fended off systemic risks.

U.S. central bankers say their relative transparency helps their effectiveness and legitimacy, but open records laws also make Fed officials cautious about their communications, much of which must be made public when requested. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer has said transparency makes it harder for policymakers to have informal discussions.

Kamin pointed out in his email that everything he was sending was publicly available.

"I hope this is helpful," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-cenbank-exclusive-idUSKCN0WN0BM

# ? Mar 21, 2016 14:13

Artificer: Apr 8, 2010; You're going to try ponies and you're. Going. To. LOVE. ME!!

Do you suppose they will listen? The upper policymakers.

# ? Mar 21, 2016 14:24

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 17, 2024 18:41

Goa Tse-tung: Feb 11, 2008; ;3; Yams Fan

Those papers start with an invisible "Lets assume a free stock market," and if the fed guy didn't explicitly said this - and the chinese act on it- nothing in the fed playbook will even matter.

You can even replace "free" with "rational" for allergy to capitalism reasons.

# ? Mar 21, 2016 15:11

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > China Economy Megathread

«‹›113 »