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Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

White Lion Pride World Wide.

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cuckservative
Feb 24, 2016

by Shine
trumpstaffel. :godwinning:
literal trumpstaffel.:godwinning:

Slate Action
Feb 13, 2012

by exmarx
That Twitter account has already been taken down.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Lotka Volterra posted:

Growing up in a state with no interstate rivalry has made me naive to these things, I guess.

the gently caress has no interstate rivalry?

shiksa
Nov 9, 2009

i went to one of these wrestling shows and it was... honestly? frickin boring. i wanna see ricky! i want to see his gold chains and respect for the ftw lifestyle
I can't wait for one of those idiots to get dragged off by the secret service for whipping out a gun at a rally.

The Saurus
Dec 3, 2006

by Smythe

pathetic little tramp posted:

And I think it's a matter of he has to win 100% of delegates on Tuesday too. And Missouri is proportional, I believe. Only OH and FL are WTA.

Florida, Illinois, Missouri and Ohio are winner take all. Trump is going to win at least 3 and possibly 4 depending how well Kasich does.

North Carolina is the only proportional primary on tuesday.

Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART
Maybe I have too much faith in the decency of man, but won't American society at large look down on brownshirts in the year 2016?

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

The Saurus posted:

Florida, Illinois, Missouri and Ohio are winner take all. Trump is going to win at least 3 and possibly 4 depending how well Kasich does.

North Carolina is the only proportional primary on tuesday.

Cruz seems to have a shot at IL and I can't figure out why.

Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART

My Imaginary GF posted:

the gently caress has no interstate rivalry?

Alaska, maybe?

ass cobra
May 28, 2004

by Azathoth

cuckservative posted:

trumpstaffel. :godwinning:
literal trumpstaffel.:godwinning:

Actually this is the Trumpabteilung, the Trümpstaffel comes later

Shark Sandwich
Sep 6, 2010

by R. Guyovich

Pakled posted:

Maybe I have too much faith in the decency of man, but won't American society at large look down on brownshirts in the year 2016?

Depends on the uniform. I'd go fascist for Hugo Boss

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Pakled posted:

Alaska, maybe?

"gently caress Canada, eh?"

Pakled posted:

Maybe I have too much faith in the decency of man, but won't American society at large look down on brownshirts in the year 2016?

Yes, Americans by and large do not like Sanders' supporters.

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007

cuckservative posted:

trumpstaffel. :godwinning:
literal trumpstaffel.:godwinning:

We will have so much godwinning If I get elected that you may get bored with godwinning

Skull Servant
Oct 25, 2009



I can't wait to meet up with a bunch of dudes and wear protection and get physical while thinking of Trump the whole time.

cuckservative
Feb 24, 2016

by Shine
i thought godwin's rule was rescinded for this election



TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
*click* (my jackboots coming together with fervor)

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

mdemone posted:

Cruz seems to have a shot at IL and I can't figure out why.

Downstate IL is very religious Cruz country. Upstate isn't but it's also not particularly Trump friendly and would normally be voting Rubio (obv not anymore). The large % of the population that has no candidate will be on the fence and pick not-Trump at the last minute as usual so it should be close.

Bryter
Nov 6, 2011

but since we are small we may-
uh, we may be the losers

Pakled posted:

Maybe I have too much faith in the decency of man, but won't American society at large look down on brownshirts in the year 2016?

Actually if you look properly you'll see that it's more of a shade of Khaki, so it's fine and the situation is not AT ALL like what you're comparing it to, nu-uh, no siree

Shark Sandwich
Sep 6, 2010

by R. Guyovich

Cabinet posted:

I can't wait to meet up with a bunch of dudes and wear protection and get physical while thinking of Trump the whole time.

Didn't know you posted here, Little Marco

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

The Saurus posted:

Florida, Illinois, Missouri and Ohio are winner take all. Trump is going to win at least 3 and possibly 4 depending how well Kasich does.

North Carolina is the only proportional primary on tuesday.
Illinois is (sort of) winner-take-all by congressional district, not by state, with a handful of delegates going to the state winner: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IL-R

Missouri is only winner-take-all if someone gets 50% and is otherwise winner-take-all per district (with a bonus to the winner): http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

cuckservative posted:

i thought godwin's rule was rescinded for this election

Godwin's Law isn't actually a fallacy, it just says that as a discussion on the Internet goes on, the probability of a Hitler comparison approaches 1

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

Has Trump won a state yet where he was really close in polling or slightly behind?

Is he even capable, from a constitutional or organizational standpoint, of mounting a serious last minute hard push in a state that's polling close like OH or IL that could make the difference in locking down the nomination for him?

AsInHowe
Jan 11, 2007

red winged angel

Lotka Volterra posted:

I guess I'm not up on all the latest dogwhistles, because I don't get this.

As a Michigan fan, we hate Ohio State, but Ohio State fans really, really hate Michigan.

To the point that when Michigan plays at Ohio State, the university sends out travel warnings in the style of the State Department.

Slate Action
Feb 13, 2012

by exmarx

Zwabu posted:

Has Trump won a state yet where he was really close in polling or slightly behind?

Arguably Arkansas, although there was very little polling there. And Trump has quite a few underperformances of around 10 points, although he usually still wins in that case.

Some examples:

Oklahoma: Final RCP Average Trump +11.4, Actual Result Cruz +6.1 (-17 vs. expectation)
Virginia: Final RCP Average Trump +14.5, Actual Result Trump +2.8 (-12)
Texas: Final RCP Average Cruz +9.0, Actual Result Cruz +17.1 (-8)

Slate Action fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Mar 13, 2016

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Montasque posted:

It's going 'viral' saw it posted on FREEP
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lm6LGITkiz4

i'm the fat gut spilling out

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...
Behold, the bard of our time


https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/709080685802340353

richardfun
Aug 10, 2008

Twenty years? It's no wonder I'm so hungry. Do you have anything to eat?
Sure, why the gently caress not.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/709083187775979521

Louisgod
Sep 25, 2003

Always Watching
Bread Liar

Cabinet posted:

I can't wait to meet up with a bunch of dudes and wear protection and get physical while thinking of Trump the whole time.

Rubio does it

Aves Maria!
Jul 26, 2008

Maybe I'll drown

My Imaginary GF posted:

the gently caress has no interstate rivalry?

Iowa. I can't think of a single other state that I grew up with people truly hating or that had a huge rivalry in sports. Most of the hatred was reserved for other Iowans (the bad ones, you know, Iowa State people).

Maybe Nebraska? But not really?


Vaguely hilarious in light of that NdG tweet about anti-Trump protesters.

Alfred P. Pseudonym
May 29, 2006

And when you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss goes 8-8


lol Trump is a third grader who screams UNO the millisecond you take your finger off the second to last card

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



So is Trump saying that his people should protest Bernie and get arrested and have their lives ruined too?

neutral milf hotel
Oct 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy
I figured out who the wall guy is from that trump rally. it was tom delay



:stare: how the mighty have fallen :stare:

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Lotka Volterra posted:

Iowa. I can't think of a single other state that I grew up with people truly hating or that had a huge rivalry in sports. Most of the hatred was reserved for other Iowans (the bad ones, you know, Iowa State people).

Maybe Nebraska? But not really?


Vaguely hilarious in light of that NdG tweet about anti-Trump protesters.

Ah, Iowa. America's second-best corn growing state. Guess who beats Iowa in corn production?

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

Slate Action posted:

Arguably Arkansas, although there was very little polling there. And Trump has quite a few underperformances of around 10 points, although he usually still wins in that case.

Some examples:

Oklahoma: Final RCP Average Trump +11.4, Actual Result Cruz +6.1 (-17 vs. expectation)
Virginia: Final RCP Average Trump +14.5, Actual Result Trump +2.8 (-12)
Texas: Final RCP Average Cruz +9.0, Actual Result Cruz +17.1 (-8)

Yeah.. so I can easily see Trump winning only FL out of the big states coming up. His lead is such there that even underperformance shouldn't put him in jeopardy of losing. Puts him well on the road to a contested convention but less so for the nomination.

Every time I see him locked in a tight polling situation such as in OH and IL I just assume he will lose to the opponent who will be better organized and turn out their vote more. Unless his team gets their poo poo together and tries to do better in GOTV going forward and not just relying on the guy having a bunch of big rallies.

Edit: I should be all for this, though, because a contested convention will be maximum chaos.

Aves Maria!
Jul 26, 2008

Maybe I'll drown

My Imaginary GF posted:

Ah, Iowa. America's second-best corn growing state. Guess who beats Iowa in corn production?

You can't call it an interstate rivalry if only one state cares.

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Lotka Volterra posted:

Iowa. I can't think of a single other state that I grew up with people truly hating or that had a huge rivalry in sports. Most of the hatred was reserved for other Iowans (the bad ones, you know, Iowa State people).

Maybe Nebraska? But not really?

both minnesota and wisconsin hate iowa so i kinda assumed they hated both states back

i guess i shouldn't be surprised that iowa is such a poo poo hole that even iowans hate it

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Lotka Volterra posted:

You can't call it an interstate rivalry if only one state cares.

You can't call it bullying if only one individual walks away with your lunch money.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible
The Republican primaries on Tuesday are somewhat meaningless to the GOPe. Trump winning OH and FL or losing both has no bearing on the eventual outcome. The GOP are not going to take the nomination away from Trump at the convention. It's the worst move they could make, and whatever rises out of the ashes won't be a a small government/constitutional conservative party.

Instead, the GOPe strategists will have their attention on the Democrat primaries. If Hillary does well, they can breathe a sigh of relief, because NeverTrump will live on through support for Hillary. If Bernie wins everything but Florida, and is able to really cut into Hillary's delegate lead, the GOPe will begin planning The Purge style home security systems so they can ride out President Trump's race wars. As much as they may hate Trump, they will gladly go down with the ship if the alternative is Bernie.

Schnorkles
Apr 30, 2015

It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Zwabu posted:

Has Trump won a state yet where he was really close in polling or slightly behind?

Is he even capable, from a constitutional or organizational standpoint, of mounting a serious last minute hard push in a state that's polling close like OH or IL that could make the difference in locking down the nomination for him?

The Key is that both Ohio and Illinois are open primaries [iirc. Ohio is for sure, but I'm pretty sure Illinois is as well.] The polls have tended to be accurate in open primaries, and Trump underperforms in closed primaries. Ohio has a slight lean towards Kasich and I'm pretty sure his in-state infrastructure will carry the day, but I'd be surprised if Trump doesn't end up carrying Illinois by 5-7 or so.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Schnorkles posted:

The Key is that both Ohio and Illinois are open primaries [iirc. Ohio is for sure, but I'm pretty sure Illinois is as well.] The polls have tended to be accurate in open primaries, and Trump underperforms in closed primaries. Ohio has a slight lean towards Kasich and I'm pretty sure his in-state infrastructure will carry the day, but I'd be surprised if Trump doesn't end up carrying Illinois by 5-7 or so.

The best evidence for Democratic crossover to Trump that I've seen yet.

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the paradigm shift
Jan 18, 2006

My Imaginary GF posted:

The best evidence for Democratic crossover to Trump that I've seen yet.

yeah but how much is people going 'well hill has this sewn up so why don't I vote against cruz'?

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