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Pissflaps posted:So you think Corbyn appeals to racists I see. no clearly he does not appeal to racists as they are voting UKIP. I think that the working class racists who traditionally voted Labour and would never ever vote Tory now have somewhere else to put their hat now that UKIP are on the scene. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YABLsFK8gjY JFairfax fucked around with this message at 17:14 on Apr 20, 2016 |
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Apr 20, 2016 17:10
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Do UKIP support bettering living conditions of working class people other than painting their woes as relating to immigration or the EU?
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Apr 20, 2016 17:13
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pretty sure some of them support some form of national socialism
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Apr 20, 2016 17:15
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Bedshaped posted:Do UKIP support bettering living conditions of working class people other than painting their woes as relating to immigration or the EU? Well they want to dismantle the NHS and are pretty keen on letting THE FREE HAND OF THE MARKET sort everything out You do the maths
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Apr 20, 2016 17:18
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Pork Pie Hat posted:Bernie Ecclestone literally bribed his way out of a bribery court case in Germany And then suggested they use the money to build a racing track and pay him to have an F1 race there. It's hard not to admire the temerity of the twisted little fascist.
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Apr 20, 2016 17:39
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I can't decide if I should be angry or just laugh at how stupid it is. https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/722817213296730113
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Apr 20, 2016 17:39
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That is US Politics levels of stupidity.
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Apr 20, 2016 17:43
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idk about saving democracy but they definitely killed a lot of right wing nationalists, we could learn from their example
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Apr 20, 2016 17:49
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Mega Comrade posted:I can't decide if I should be angry or just laugh at how stupid it is. I have spanish friends who find it upsetting that everyone just melds the history of european fascism into "we fought bad people and we're great" and do not understand that we had some great fascist friends. Imagine a world without poor spain. We'd have to rehome all the racist expats.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:04
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JFairfax posted:because UKIP are stealing votes from Corbyn, all those pesky racist northerners who would have historically voted Labour have defected to the purple headed warrior Farage's party. Oh, please go away.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:04
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JFairfax posted:no clearly he does not appeal to racists as they are voting UKIP. But you proposed a hypothetical where UKIP cease to exist - why would racists start voting Labour instead unless Corbyn held some appeal?
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Apr 20, 2016 18:06
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StoneOfShame posted:Victoria Wood has died, she always seemed decent. (I mean, I know the same thing happens every year, but 2016 just seems particularly bad. And 62 is no age to go  )
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Apr 20, 2016 18:10
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Mega Comrade posted:I can't decide if I should be angry or just laugh at how stupid it is. why the gently caress did they include americans in this, even putting them before brits what a bizarre ad e: ^^ weve reached a point long enough after televisions became common and the number of celebrities exploded that there are just a lot more old celebs than there used to be
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Apr 20, 2016 18:10
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Pissflaps posted:But you proposed a hypothetical where UKIP cease to exist - why would racists start voting Labour instead unless Corbyn held some appeal? I think JFairfax is suggesting that some traditional Labour voters have a streak of racism in them, while they still hold ostensibly Labour values. These people would never, every, vote Tory, but UKIP's positioning of themselves as the voice of the ordinary working man who just happens to be a colossal racist has given the former Labour voters someone else to vote for, who they think share their values. Therefore, if UKIP were removed from the picture, these people would simply default back to voting Labour, and just grumble to each other about forruns.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:13
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Pissflaps posted:But you proposed a hypothetical where UKIP cease to exist - why would racists start voting Labour instead unless Corbyn held some appeal? no, I am saying they *used* to vote Labour and that UKIP have been taking votes away from them over the last couple of years. This is a Labour MP talking about the 2015 general election and the impact on UKIP on Labour, especially in the north. As the dust settles on Labour’s defeat, we must do better in understanding the causes. Too much analysis has been superficial and short term, rather than getting to grips with the bigger failings we must overcome to win next time. A large missing part of that analysis concerns the way Ukip hurt us in Tory-Labour marginals by eating into our working-class support. Contrary to the complacency among Labour’s campaign chiefs, until the last year – when Ukip was taking four or five Tory voters for every one Labour voter – in 2015 the Ukip share of the vote was higher in Labour-held seats than in Conservative-held ones. I heard from candidates across the country who said this was happening in their areas. And the seat-by-seat analysis I’ve done confirms what they were saying. We announced 106 target seats in 2013, the crucial majority of which were Conservative-held constituencies in England and Wales. To take these 85 seats, Labour needed an average swing from the Tories to us of 3.5% – higher in some seats such as Rugby, lower in others like Sherwood. In the event, in these constituencies there was an average swing of 1.4% away from us to the Tories. A dreadful result on the night which meant we won only 10 of the 85 seats – little better than one in 10. A big part of the problem was Ukip. In these 85 constituencies, Ukip was a minor player in 2010, polling fewer than 125,000 votes in total. This time was different. Ukip won over half a million votes, and added 10 percentage points to their average vote share. In Labour seats where we suffered painful losses this was even starker – in Morley and Outwood, Ukip were up 13 percentage points, and in Corby they went from a standing start in 2010 to take 14% of the vote. In two-thirds of the target seats we failed to take, the Ukip vote was greater than the Tory majority. And in constituencies where Ukip got a high share of the vote, the Tory to Labour swing was markedly weaker. I saw this rising Ukip threat in my own South Yorkshire constituency, especially after the Rotherham by-election in 2012. And increasingly other Labour MPs talked to me of similar concerns. Ukip stepped into the space left by the Lib Dems as the anti-establishment, anti-politics party.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:14
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Pork Pie Hat posted:I think JFairfax is suggesting that some traditional Labour voters have a streak of racism in them, while they still hold ostensibly Labour values. These people would never, every, vote Tory, but UKIP's positioning of themselves as the voice of the ordinary working man who just happens to be a colossal racist has given the former Labour voters someone else to vote for, who they think share their values. Forums poster Pork Pie Hat is on the ball
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Apr 20, 2016 18:15
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JFairfax posted:no, I am saying they *used* to vote Labour and that UKIP have been taking votes away from them over the last couple of years. What percentage of UKIP voters are ex Labour voters?
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Apr 20, 2016 18:17
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Phoon posted:why the gently caress did they include americans in this, even putting them before brits what a bizarre ad Celebs are exploding? Where can I watch this?
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Apr 20, 2016 18:19
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Ah that old chestnut of "don't mention that working class people can be quite horrifically racist!" is rearing it's mealymouthed head again. Lovely people. Very down to earth.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:20
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No no you see the history of economic oppression means that they have 69 oppressed privilege points to spend and "be a big racist" only costs 14.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:21
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Regarde Aduck posted:Ah that old chestnut of "don't mention that working class people can be quite horrifically racist!" is rearing it's mealymouthed head again. Lovely people. Very down to earth. Phew good job you're here to remind us how awful working class people are.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:22
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I should know considering I am one. We're pretty bad. I hope you're not thinking of talking down to me.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:22
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Pissflaps posted:What percentage of UKIP voters are ex Labour voters? According to this, about 11%. The biggest group is ex-Tories. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/02/24/where-ukip-gets-its-support/ e: it may be worth noting, though, that that link is from 2014. I've not looked hard enough for anything post the latest GE.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:22
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Pork Pie Hat posted:According to this, about 11%. The biggest group is ex-Tories. So it is, in fact, 'fair to say' that if it weren't for UKIP the Tories would be even further ahead.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:24
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Maybe people that didn't vote started voting for UKIP. edit: people that don't vote are almost more likely to switch to UKIP than switch from Labour to UKIP.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:24
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I'd rather you go back to being an idiotic pedant than a knee jerker tbh. We have plenty of the latter.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:24
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Phoon posted:why the gently caress did they include americans in this, even putting them before brits what a bizarre ad I can imagine a lot of Canadians would get pretty grumpy; they had an entire beach to themselves in Overlord.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:25
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Regarde Aduck posted:I'd rather you go back to being an idiotic pedant than a knee jerker tbh. We have plenty of the latter. Yeah you're right don't want to go all knee jerky and get in the way of you pointing out how bad working class people can be. Good job punching up.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:26
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Pissflaps posted:So it is, in fact, 'fair to say' that if it weren't for UKIP the Tories would be even further ahead. Not necessarily. I just edited my post to point out that that article was from before the last General Election. Based only on that, it would be reasonable to assume that what you say is true. However, we'd need to see statistics from after the 2015 GE to make reasonable assumptions about today. It was my fault you didn't see that, I forgot to put it in my first post, so don't think I'm trying to antagonize you!
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Apr 20, 2016 18:27
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Pissflaps posted:What percentage of UKIP voters are ex Labour voters? Analysis of the election result has shown that, although Labour gained support as people deserted the Lib Dems, it also lost a large number to other parties. Of all those who voted, 6% were people who had voted Labour in 2010 but who chose other parties. Of these, a third (2%) went straight to the Tories. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/18/labour-party-voters-desertion-election 41,420,413 total votes cast at the last election. 4% of that number is 1,856,816 Now not all of that 4% will have been voting UKIP, but it could very easily have been a million votes and then some that Labour lost to UKIP last time out. UKIP got 3,881,099 votes, so maybe 20% - 30% of their votes last time could have been ex Labour voters... JFairfax fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Apr 20, 2016 |
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Apr 20, 2016 18:27
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JFairfax posted:Analysis of the election result has shown that, although Labour gained support as people deserted the Lib Dems, it also lost a large number to other parties. Of all those who voted, 6% were people who had voted Labour in 2010 but who chose other parties. Of these, a third (2%) went straight to the Tories. You've calculated a percentage of the total number of voters, not those that voted for Labour. Read your own post properly. Pissflaps fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Apr 20, 2016 |
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Apr 20, 2016 18:29
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Pissflaps posted:You've calculated a percentage of the total number of voters, not those that voted for Labour. Read your own post properly. Of all those who voted, 6% were people who had voted Labour in 2010 Of all those who voted Of all those who voted -- in other words 6% of the total electorate in 2015 were people who had voted Labour in the 2010 general election but voted for someone else.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:31
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From the tab article on the NUS elections:quote:Some delegates accidentally invalidated their ballots by posting them on social media. I also think the accusations that the NUS are a bit overblown, only some of the delegates opposed Holocaust Memorial Day.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:32
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JFairfax posted:Of all those who voted, 6% were people who had voted Labour in 2010 Nice edit but I see you have now. So by your own figures, it's not 'fair to say' that if UKIP disappeared Labour would be ahead in the polls.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:32
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What also doesn't help is we're talking about northern (ex)Labour voters, but only have national data to examine.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:33
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Pissflaps posted:Nice edit but you still haven't answered the question: What percentage of UKIP voters are ex Labour voters? I didn't edit anything, that's in the article I originally quoted Pissflaps. I cannot find an exact number as no-one seems to have looked into it properly, but it could be anything up to 1.8million people who voted labour in 2010 and voted UKIP in 2015.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:34
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JFairfax posted:I didn't edit anything, that's in the article I originally quoted Pissflaps. You edited your post. You've already conceded you were wrong I'm not sure what else there is to say on the subject.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:35
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Well without going through Labour to UKIP on a seat by seat basis but given that Labour MPs themselves following the election were saying: In two-thirds of the target seats we failed to take, the Ukip vote was greater than the Tory majority. I think it is fair to say that without UKIP labour would have done a lot better at the last general election
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Apr 20, 2016 18:36
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JFairfax posted:I think it is fair to say that without UKIP labour would have done a lot better at the last general election Well, yes. But we're talking about the polls now which you said would put labour in the lead if it weren't for Labour. By your own admission that's not the case.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:37
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and also that Labour --> UKIP defections were a big problem for Labour, likely costing them numerous seats.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:37
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