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H5N1
Mar 8, 2005

heil satan
I can't believe how excited I am about the Jeb campaign!

H5N1 fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Oct 18, 2016

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zoux
Apr 28, 2006

AllanGordon posted:

Prob true if people didn't remember the hatred Hillary supporters felt towards Barry in 08 after he won the nomination

Whoa yeah good point!

Three Olives
Apr 10, 2005

Not a single fucking olive in sight

Except that's not what happened at all, the DOD was is charge of the Manhattan Project and basically decided on their own to drop the bombs on Japan, Truman knew about it but was never specifically briefed on their plans to nuke Japan, he was very hands off on the whole bombing business until after the second bomb when he told them they were not to drop any more atomic bombs without his specific authorization.

Really the lesson of Truman was a DOD that kind of went out of bounds because Truman didn't tell them to stop because of his fecklessness and then he was like, hey, we just killed 100k people, how about you not do that again unless I specifically tell you too.

as halfway crooks
Mar 7, 2007

by Shine
see you at the megyn kelly interview son

Helical Nightmares
Apr 30, 2009

zoux posted:

Let me go ahead and stop you there: "Woman Card" is an unmitigated disaster of a statement that is going to dog him until November.

I don't think so. That particular cat has been out of the bag since his "blood from wherever" feud with Megyn Kelly.

Granted the republican primary voters care less about this issue than democratic primary voters, but Trump still has captured women's votes in the primaries.

More than the negatives of sexism is that in large groups people want to be/bandwagon with the perceived winner.

Hillary will hammer him on it and Trump will take solid hits in votes on it I agree, but I don't think this sinks him. Too many other factors at play.

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

Typo posted:

this is what a bunch of dudes on reddit believes but doesn't correspond very well with real life

even palin did well with women until the couric interviews or so, her announcement as vp literally flipped women voters like 20 points in mccain's favor overnight

So what happens when Trump"s female VP starts campaigning that she agrees with Trump, that all Hillary's accomplishments are farces? That unlike FORMER FIRST LADY she actually got her governorship/congressional seat by being a smart and hardworking woman making it in a man's world?

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Oiled and Ready posted:

"Hillary thinks she gets your vote because you're a woman. She's entitled, but women are smart enough to vote for who will do a better job." This is the frame, and the more times he can get Hillary to make a "he can't say that about us women, right ladies?" move the more ammo he'll have when he turns to that frame in the fall.

I'm sure Trump just straight up telling women how they should be voting as opposed to, for example, not being himself and saying the things he does and holding the opinions he does, will go over well

Louisgod
Sep 25, 2003

Always Watching
Bread Liar

Three Olives posted:

Except that's not what happened at all, the DOD was is charge of the Manhattan Project and basically decided on their own to drop the bombs on Japan, Truman knew about it but was never specifically briefed on their plans to nuke Japan, he was very hands off on the whole bombing business until after the second bomb when he told them they were not to drop any more atomic bombs without his specific authorization.

Really the lesson of Truman was a DOD that kind of went out of bounds because Truman didn't tell them to stop because of his fecklessness and then he was like, hey, we just killed 100k people, how about you not do that again unless I specifically tell you too.

Like your posts, it doesn't matter

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Helical Nightmares posted:

I don't think so. That particular cat has been out of the bag since his "blood from wherever" feud with Megyn Kelly.

Granted the republican primary voters care less about this issue than democratic primary voters, but Trump still has captured women's votes in the primaries.

More than the negatives of sexism is that in large groups people want to be/bandwagon with the perceived winner.

Hillary will hammer him on it and Trump will take solid hits in votes on it I agree, but I don't think this sinks him. Too many other factors at play.

Trump is going to lose by 100+ EV's and 20 points in the popular at an absolute minimum.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Trump (third-hand) quote of the day

quote:

Lewandowski was berating my editor over another gripe: I had called the candidate “Donald” rather than “Mr. Trump” in an email.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/2016-media-issue-donald-trump-press-pen-campaign-reporters-campaign-lewandowski-schreckinger-

sharkbomb
Feb 9, 2005

Oiled and Ready posted:

"Hillary thinks she gets your vote because you're a woman. She's entitled, but women are smart enough to vote for who will do a better job." This is the frame, and the more times he can get Hillary to make a "he can't say that about us women, right ladies?" move the more ammo he'll have when he turns to that frame in the fall.

If there's one thing I know about Donald Trump, it's that he is very disciplined with his political messaging. This should go well!!

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

Epic High Five posted:

I'm sure Trump just straight up telling women how they should be voting as opposed to, for example, not being himself and saying the things he does and holding the opinions he does, will go over well

Oh Trump won't be saying that, women will be. Surrogatezzz

E:well he probably will say it too because he says anything, but his female VP and women surrogates will push that one harder.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Oiled and Ready posted:

So what happens when Trump"s female VP starts campaigning that she agrees with Trump, that all Hillary's accomplishments are farces? That unlike FORMER FIRST LADY she actually got her governorship/congressional seat by being a smart and hardworking woman making it in a man's world?

Clinton is an accomplished politician who, while started off her political career as first lady, managed to define herself first as a senator then as a secretary of state. This is a tactic which prob works in 2000 or so but not in 2016

also trump is retarded enough to prob say some dumb poo poo like fat chicks shouldn't vote or something at some point

Helical Nightmares
Apr 30, 2009

zoux posted:

Well well well looks like we all owe Ted Cruz an apology.
https://twitter.com/RichardGrenell/status/725759923200520192

Huh. Well gently caress.

Augus
Mar 9, 2015


I'm not sure people really understand what it means when someone has a 50% strong disapproval rating among women.
It means those women aren't going to loving listen to that person when he tells them how they should be voting.

Oiled and Ready posted:

So what happens when Trump"s female VP starts campaigning that she agrees with Trump, that all Hillary's accomplishments are farces? That unlike FORMER FIRST LADY she actually got her governorship/congressional seat by being a smart and hardworking woman making it in a man's world?

I'm sure everyone will just forget that Ms. Universe pageants are a thing or whatever.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Reminder that the Clinton campaign had an attack ad centering on the last line of Trump's speech, including Clinton herself speaking on it, professionally done and ready within hours of Trump saying it. He's going to have to watch what he says like a HAWK for months. So far he hasn't been able to hold a moderate-ish position for 24 hours

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

Augus posted:

I'm not sure people really understand what it means when someone has a 50% strong disapproval rating among women.
It means those women aren't going to loving listen to that person when he tells them how they should be voting.


I'm sure everyone will just forget that Ms. Universe pageants are a thing or whatever.

Women, like men, are fickle creatures and we're a long way from November.

AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 14 hours!

Huge, if true.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

I always think its kind of funny when white men who have never not had a member of their demo to vote for for president start telling women and minorities that voting for someone based on identity is bad.

No Mans Land
Feb 26, 2016

by Cowcaster
I don't think Trump will pick a female VP, it's too calculating, and it's not like there's an American Marine LePage looking for a career boost anywhere. He's going to go with competence, not with pandering. Women prefer male leaders over female ones anyway, aside from those edge cases where the woman leader is just obviously more competent than the next 10 male competitors which happens sometimes. This is not that time.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Augus posted:

I'm not sure people really understand what it means when someone has a 50% strong disapproval rating among women.
It means those women aren't going to loving listen to that person when he tells them how they should be voting.


I'm sure everyone will just forget that Ms. Universe pageants are a thing or whatever.

A lot of people that never had to deal with racist/sexist/homophobic/etc bullshit don't really get this. It doesn't take much for that kind of person to get enough of a sense of someone else to viscerally veer away from them. No one has a keener ear for dogwhistles than whose life/lifelihood depends on avoiding dogs.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
Well Basketball was invented by a Canadian... according to those Canadian minute commercials at least.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

No Mans Land posted:

I don't think Trump will pick a female VP, it's too calculating, and it's not like there's an American Marine LePage looking for a career boost anywhere. He's going to go with competence, not with pandering. Women prefer male leaders over female ones anyway, aside from those edge cases where the woman leader is just obviously more competent than the next 10 male competitors which happens sometimes. This is not that time.

this is what happens when you spend too long posting on SA reddit 4chan

AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 14 hours!

No Mans Land posted:

Women prefer male leaders over female ones anyway, aside from those edge cases where the woman leader is just obviously more competent than the next 10 male competitors which happens sometimes. This is not that time.

Keep on telling women what they prefer, let us know how that works out for you.

No Mans Land
Feb 26, 2016

by Cowcaster
Evidence is, look how bad action movies with female leads do at the box office. Since we don't have any better data.

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

Keep on telling women what they prefer, let us know how that works out for you.

This is such an insidious statement. I used a generalization and you turned it into, I am simultaneously lecturing every single woman individually on what they should do. That is not at all what I said.

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

zoux posted:

I always think its kind of funny when white men who have never not had a member of their demo to vote for for president start telling women and minorities that voting for someone based on identity is bad.

I voted for Obama twice, I'm clean here. Not that there were any good white men up for the job those years.

Al!
Apr 2, 2010

:coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot:

Oiled and Ready posted:

Women, like men, are fickle creatures and we're a long way from November.

Women, like men, suffer from hysteria and are so drat crazy.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



The only female VP Trump could possibly land would be Condi Rice, which is especially funny because she's the one who set the precedent for private e-mail servers use as Secretary of State that Trump will no doubt be harping on Hillary for.

Augus
Mar 9, 2015


Oiled and Ready posted:

Women, like men, are fickle creatures and we're a long way from November.

Yeah, I'm not holding my breath.

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe
So Steve Deace was on CNN a little while ago, it went about as well as you might expect

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvRlvhhua4M

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

zoux posted:

Well well well looks like we all owe Ted Cruz an apology.
https://twitter.com/RichardGrenell/status/725759923200520192

I think the funny thing about that gaffe that a lot of people probably missed is that even IF "basketball ring" was an agreed upon term it wouldn't change the fact that Cruz was actually trying to pander to that crowd by referencing a classic scene in Hoosiers (since they were in the gym where it was shot) and he just made a total bungled mess of it because it made no sense in that context.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Cdc13CU9Fc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz7m23D5Cms

That's what's really funny about Cruz calling it a "ring." Not that he made a simple gaffe, but that he was trying to force a totally unfitting pandering moment for a few hundred people into his speech and he made such a mess of it that it became something for millions of people to mock him about.

Ultimately Ted Cruz is that guy who you never stop hating and mocking because he never stops trying too hard to show how cool and smart he is.

Al!
Apr 2, 2010

:coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot:
Hey oiled and ready that is some top notch TOP NOTCH weaseling I mean it completely seriously I'm going to use that one.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Shageletic posted:

A lot of people that never had to deal with racist/sexist/homophobic/etc bullshit don't really get this. It doesn't take much for that kind of person to get enough of a sense of someone else to viscerally veer away from them. No one has a keener ear for dogwhistles than whose life/lifelihood depends on avoiding dogs.

The funny thing is that they -do- get it, see reddit's hostility towards feminism as being anti-men and liberals as being anti-white.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

No Mans Land posted:

A Colbert link, well i never

:ohdear:

FabioClone
Oct 3, 2004

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

zoux posted:

Well well well looks like we all owe Ted Cruz an apology.
https://twitter.com/RichardGrenell/status/725759923200520192

If Cruz was right about that... what if he's right about everything? We've been laughing at him in our ignorance, not hearing the truth because of our preconceived notions. Maybe it's time we gave him an honest second look.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Oh my god imagine a Donald Trump/Michelle Fiore ticket though

as halfway crooks
Mar 7, 2007

by Shine

zoux posted:

I always think its kind of funny when white men who have never not had a member of their demo to vote for for president start telling women and minorities that voting for someone based on identity is bad.

as opposed to affirmative action for the nuclear football? i dunno

condi will never be vp, trump doesnt want to link himself to the bush years

Al!
Apr 2, 2010

:coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot:

Epic High Five posted:

Oh my god imagine a Donald Trump/Michelle Fiore ticket though

Donald Trump/Franchesca Fiore

Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

No Mans Land posted:

I don't think Trump will pick a female VP, it's too calculating, and it's not like there's an American Marine LePage looking for a career boost anywhere. He's going to go with competence, not with pandering. Women prefer male leaders over female ones anyway, aside from those edge cases where the woman leader is just obviously more competent than the next 10 male competitors which happens sometimes. This is not that time.

Nah, he's gonna pick a woman based on pandering that has a record good enough he can say it was based on competency. No one will buy it, and when they don't he can call them all sexist and hypocritical even though they're right. And he will win that argument because they will be cowed in precisely the way he never is.

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Helical Nightmares
Apr 30, 2009

zoux posted:

Trump is going to lose by 100+ EV's and 20 points in the popular at an absolute minimum.

:shrug: I don't know

I will tell you what I think will hurt him and possibly cost him the general that I see right now.

Trump has a shoddy ground game in terms of organization. Hillary has an experienced well oiled machine of veteran people working for her.

Now I'm basing this on some anecdotal California details, only because I've been paying attention to California locally. So this prediction is filled with the errors you would expect.

Cruz has sent advance people to California to rile up support three weeks ago. I agree with some pundits that picking up Carly as VP is an attempt to get votes in CA (it's a dumb move because Carly is not valued highly in CA but whatever). Cruz has already done the interview circuit in CA, some places twice.

Compare this to Trump's CA campaign. The guy in charge of CA is new to politics and Trump is only this week focusing on CA (supposed to be in Costa Mesa today I think).

Hillary will be more organized than Cruz in every state with veteran local people and I think that will be her winning hand.

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