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Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
https://twitter.com/JamieW1776/status/727616491927965696

Two steps forward, one step back

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Immortan
Jun 6, 2015

by Shine

Epic High Five posted:

Psh, I'm like the 4th or 5th most prolific poster in this thread. What's the worst attack that has been levied against Trump so far by the right? A 30 second soundbyte against Trump U that legit flustered and hurt them? Then no followup except for a solid week of every other candidate saying they'd be happy to vote for him?

:sad:

We want you to believe this because when it blows up in your face it's going to be that much sweeter.;)

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
https://twitter.com/JRubinBlogger/status/727615630992674817

Nichael
Mar 30, 2011


Helical Nightmares posted:

Trump is a Nazi, Trump hates women (with evidence), Trump ran a scam (Trump University).

I don't think GOP primary voters care that he hates women (they do too!), and Trump University is only going to get worse by the summer.

And then of course you have these spineless "opponents". Cruz still refuses to say he won't back him after the rear end in a top hat was threatening to reveal nonexistent dirt on his wife. I mean, dear god, that was pathetic.

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib
So yeah current delegate count is 996 to 565, if Trump wins Indiana he gets 57, bringing Trump to 1053.

Up coming we have:

Nebraska 36, West Virginia 34, Oregon 28, Washington 44, California 172, Montana 27, New Jersey 51, New Mexico 24, South Dakota 29

If we're super generous to Cruz, he wins 36 in Nebraska, 15 in Oregon, all 34 in WV (owing to the fact that the ballots in WV are hosed and a lot of Trump voters could accidentally gently caress up their votes), 44 in Washington, 27 in Montana, 12 in New Mexico, 29 in South Dakota, 22 in CA.

That leaves Trump with Oregon 13 + California 150 + New Jersey 51 + New Mexico 12 = + 163 + 63 = 226 + 1053 = 1279.

At that point, Cruz's rules committee needs to unbind the South Carolina delegates from Trump for violating the loyalty pledge, so 1279 - 50 = 1229.

That's basically the only way Trump is not the nominee at this point.

f#a#
Sep 6, 2004

I can't promise it will live up to the hype, but I tried my best.

man, do you guys remember Jindal's campaign?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSDqJexwWok

It feels like ages ago.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



The Trump U attack was super lovely because it came down to, "look at how unhappy these people are!" instead of, "hey you're going to be in court for fraud in the general if you win lmao, don't vote for this guy"

Despite taking the worst possible angle on it, it STILL hurt him. Clinton has already displayed that her turnaround on Trump says something stupid -> professional ad against Trump is just an hour or two. He's gonna be on the defensive all summer

AARP LARPer
Feb 19, 2005

THE DARK SIDE OF SCIENCE BREEDS A WEAPON OF WAR

Buglord
god drat I need some poll numbers stat

Helical Nightmares
Apr 30, 2009

Nichael posted:

I don't think GOP primary voters care that he hates women (they do too!),

I don't mean to single you out, but people really need to stop thinking this. It's an identity politic staple that is erroneous and keeps people from looking at real data. There are women who are registered republicans who have voted for Trump. There are unregistered/independent and registered Democrat women who will vote for Trump.

The questions of "how many" and for what "reasons is this population voting for/against Trump" cannot even be asked with the philosophy "GOP hates women. "

Immortan
Jun 6, 2015

by Shine

Epic High Five posted:

He's gonna be on the defensive all summer

lol

FBS
Apr 27, 2015

The real fun of living wisely is that you get to be smug about it.

Levin is starting soon! :allears:

AARP LARPer
Feb 19, 2005

THE DARK SIDE OF SCIENCE BREEDS A WEAPON OF WAR

Buglord
HERE WE GOOOOOOOOO!

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow/status/727600115876143105

Nichael
Mar 30, 2011


Helical Nightmares posted:

I don't mean to single you out, but people really need to stop thinking this. It's an identity politic staple that is erroneous and keeps people from looking at real data. There are women who are registered republicans who have voted for Trump. There are unregistered/independent and registered Democrat women who will vote for Trump.

The questions of "how many" and for what "reasons is this population voting for/against Trump" cannot even be asked with the philosophy "GOP hates women. "

Actually, you're not wrong here. It was just a cheap joke that I found funny.

Josef K. Sourdust
Jul 16, 2014

"To be quite frank, Platinum sucks at making games. Vanquish was terrible and Metal Gear Rising: Revengance was so boring it put me to sleep."

Why would anything written/said about Trump over the GE campaign change anyone's mind? Surely by now everyone in the country knows Hillary and Trump. People have already made up their minds and any new "scandal" just confirms doubts people already had. :shrug:

Helical Nightmares
Apr 30, 2009

Nichael posted:

Actually, you're not wrong here. It was just a cheap joke that I found funny.

Then the egg's on my face for not recognizing the joke. :negative:

AARP LARPer
Feb 19, 2005

THE DARK SIDE OF SCIENCE BREEDS A WEAPON OF WAR

Buglord
wtf CNN is not going to project winners until the polls close in an hour, but will report results of the polling stations in the eastern half of the state that have already closed.

Nichael
Mar 30, 2011


Josef K. Sourdust posted:

Why would anything written/said about Trump over the GE campaign change anyone's mind? Surely by now everyone in the country knows Hillary and Trump. People have already made up their minds and any new "scandal" just confirms doubts people already had. :shrug:

It's possible (though I really don't know how possible) that Trump can push enough blue collar whites to vote for him to help in certain states. Besides that, it's mostly a matter of energizing these people to actually vote, like most elections.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Immortan posted:

We want you to believe this because when it blows up in your face it's going to be that much sweeter.;)

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
RFK's win in the Indiana primary was crucial to establishing him as the probably nominee. Then of course he was assassinated.

Josef K. Sourdust
Jul 16, 2014

"To be quite frank, Platinum sucks at making games. Vanquish was terrible and Metal Gear Rising: Revengance was so boring it put me to sleep."

Nichael posted:

It's possible (though I really don't know how possible) that Trump can push enough blue collar whites to vote for him to help in certain states. Besides that, it's mostly a matter of energizing these people to actually vote, like most elections.

Fair point. I guess if Trump's business skills (being a money-maker is one of his appeals) become exposed as relying on outsourcing he might lose some job-nervous blue collars.

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Joementum posted:

RFK's win in the Indiana primary was crucial to establishing him as the probably nominee. Then of course he was assassinated.
But where was Cruz Sr. then???

bowser
Apr 7, 2007

Buckle up for...John Kasich Gary Johnson?!

quote:

We’re just a day away from the Indiana primary, and if recent polls are correct, things aren’t looking good for those of us on the right who don’t want Donald Trump to become the Republican Party’s new standard bearer. The general feeling is that if Trump wins the state, he’ll almost certainly be awarded the presidential nomination at the national convention in Cleveland.

If that ends up being the case, what will be next for the #NeverTrump movement — that unwavering group of disillusioned Republicans and conservatives who view Trump as an indecent, terminally dishonest man who makes a mockery of the principles and issues they deeply care about?

An estimated 20-40% of Republican voters fall into this category, and contrary to what many Trump surrogates (both official and unofficial) have been saying, these people have made it clear that they won’t simply “fall in line” behind Trump to defeat their supposed common enemy, Hillary Clinton. In fact, a recent Suffolk University poll suggests that half of these voters might actually throw their support behind Clinton, deeming her to be the lesser of the two evils.

I must admit that I have a hard time believing that Clinton would be able to garnish that level of Republican support come November. Most right-leaning voters who are adamantly opposed to Trump are equally opposed to Clinton. They believe both to be undignified, unprincipled individuals who aren’t worthy of the Oval Office.

While most political analysts recognize a dire importance in Trump bringing the Republican Party together, the person most disinterested in the effort appears to be Trump himself. Up until now, his unification strategy has been limited to excoriating his opponents and benefiting from the slow attrition of the GOP presidential field. He seems to believe that if he’s the last man standing, party unity will have somehow been achieved.

Thus, if Trump becomes the nominee, don’t expect him to waste a single breath trying to win over the Republicans he’s turned off. He’ll view them as a lost cause, and he’d probably be right.

After all, you can’t smear your opposition as “establishment types” for months and months, and then expect them to suddenly turn around and cast a partisan vote for you — the establishment’s new leader. Even if Trump’s advisers talked him into choosing a vice presidential candidate with impeccably conservative credentials, it wouldn’t work. As George Will wrote in a recent column, Trump’s running mate will be viewed as being “unqualified for high office because he or she will think Trump is qualified.”

No, the unification ship has sailed…or perhaps was never seaworthy in the first place. The #NeverTrump crowd will be searching for another option (whether it be a write-in or third-party candidate) — someone who they can vote for, and still look their children in the eye afterwards.

It won’t matter so much whether or not their candidate has a prayer of winning, because, quite frankly, that candidate won’t win — not in our country’s two-party political landscape. Still, #NeverTrump people will want their discontent heard loud and clear, and they’ll probably eventually rally around the individual who can make the most noise.

The biggest beneficiary of the hopelessly splintered Republican Party (other than Hillary Clinton) would have to be Libertarian presidential candidate, Gary Johnson. The former two-term governor of New Mexico is a strong and proven fiscal conservative, and a believer in free markets. He’s a longtime advocate of entitlement reform and tackling the national debt. These qualities alone would make him a surprisingly unique candidate in this election, should Trump and Clinton become the nominees of their respective parties.

Equally interesting might be some facts that Jim Geraghty of National Review pointed out in a short piece earlier today:

The Libertarian Party has already secured a spot on the ballot in 31 states.
A presidential candidate must be polling at 15 percent or above in order to participate in this fall’s debates.
Some recent polls have shown that somewhere between 15 and 20% of voters would vote for a third-party candidate if the major-party nominees were Clinton and Trump.

So, if anything, the general election debates could at least provide a good platform for the #NeverTrump people to have one last voice of opposition in this contest.

Johnson would by no means be an ideal candidate for conservatives who believe in a strong military, but much of his plank and qualifications for the job might just be a compromise that many of them are willing to make.

A few days ago, Johnson posted a video appealing directly to the #NeverTrump folks. It was a smart idea, and unsurprisingly, he put forth an attractive message. Unfortunately, his presentation could use some work. A bedhead appearance, an odd snicker, and Dixieland music don’t make for a particularly effective rallying cry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmxMb9t4IW4

Luckily, he has some time to work on his pitch. We’ll see if he makes the best of this opportunity.

William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"
Gary Johnson making the general debates? Sure, why not. Nothing in this election can surprise me anymore.

AARP LARPer
Feb 19, 2005

THE DARK SIDE OF SCIENCE BREEDS A WEAPON OF WAR

Buglord

Mystery Goomba
Jun 4, 2011
Why not at this point? gently caress it.

*click*

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



I really look forward to Trump losing a boatload of votes to Gary loving Johnson in the general

Happy Noodle Boy
Jul 3, 2002



:fap:

RACHET
Dec 29, 2014

by exmarx

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

But where was Cruz Sr. then???

The grassy knoll

Immortan
Jun 6, 2015

by Shine

Epic High Five posted:

I really look forward to Trump losing a boatload of votes to Gary loving Johnson in the general

Bernout's voting for us will more than make up for it.;)

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/727623723407257601

Krauthammer is on Fox right now saying the #NeverTrump is dead, but Trump needs to bring those people in, and saying Cruz's dad killed JFK is not helping things.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
https://twitter.com/BenHowe/status/727623455479369728

Edit: dammit, why does the quoted tweet sometimes show up and sometimes not

Scrub-Niggurath
Nov 27, 2007

are we at the point when can Trump be called the presumptive nominee?

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Scrub-Niggurath posted:

are we at the point when can Trump be called the presumptive nominee?
Give it an hour.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Immortan posted:

Bernout's voting for us will more than make up for it.;)

Lol don't you guys rest your hope on the turnout of the young and unaffiliated now too

why do people keep doing this

Nichael
Mar 30, 2011


Here's one of the lingering mysteries of this primary for me. In an election where Trump disparaged McCain on his performance in the military, called Bush a war criminal, and now has said Cruz's dad killed JFK, why did he never bring up the Rubio is gay rumors? Was that somehow crossing a line for him?

Immortan
Jun 6, 2015

by Shine

Epic High Five posted:

Lol don't you guys rest your hope on the turnout of the young and unaffiliated now too

why do people keep doing this

Don't underestimate the hatred that progressives have for your lovely Wall Street candidate. All it takes is a little push.;)

discoukulele
Jan 16, 2010

Yes Sir, I Can Boogie
https://twitter.com/DustiSwgel/status/727624891617443845

loving LOL, #LionTed is amazing.

Immortan
Jun 6, 2015

by Shine

Nichael posted:

Here's one of the lingering mysteries of this primary for me. In an election where Trump disparaged McCain on his performance in the military, called Bush a war criminal, and now has said Cruz's dad killed JFK, why did he never bring up the Rubio is gay rumors? Was that somehow crossing a line for him?

He didn't say his dad killed JFK.

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Necrothatcher
Mar 26, 2005




Nichael posted:

Here's one of the lingering mysteries of this primary for me. In an election where Trump disparaged McCain on his performance in the military, called Bush a war criminal, and now has said Cruz's dad killed JFK, why did he never bring up the Rubio is gay rumors? Was that somehow crossing a line for him?

Maybe the difference is that Rubio isn't actually gay, but all the others are in fact true.

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