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SquadronROE posted:Literally, Trump's path to victory could be two-fold: But how many more angry White people are there left that aren't already voting Republican? Number 2 is more likely
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May 4, 2016 17:19
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SquadronROE posted:Literally, Trump's path to victory could be two-fold: problem is, everyone else seems pretty motivated to gently caress up trump's whole day
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May 4, 2016 17:20
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Unzip and Attack posted:Perhaps- but the origin of our framework of government is not about "the common man" it's about elected elites protecting the hoi polloi from themselves. Culturally you're right that our history is flavored with populism but our actual institutions aren't that way. (Though they are beginning to shift that way with the rise of ballot initiatives and other truly democratic political changes). Ballot initiatives are at best a mixed bag and at worst a terrible loving idea (cf. California, always, but especially Proposition 8).
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May 4, 2016 17:20
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SquadronROE posted:Literally, Trump's path to victory could be two-fold: There literally aren't enough white people.
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May 4, 2016 17:20
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:There literally aren't enough white people. Zelder posted:trump's path to victory basically involve making more white people. Begun this Clone War has.
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May 4, 2016 17:21
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DaveWoo posted:Just a quick reminder that the GOP's presumptive nominee is a guy who has publicly championed extreme fringe conspiracy theories: Also, he's anti-vaxx.
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May 4, 2016 17:21
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zoux posted:It's actually going to own watching the hysterical NeverTrumpers talk themselves into voting for him in the thinkpieceosphere over the coming months, It'll be worth it to watch what the National Review does alone.
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May 4, 2016 17:22
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ComradeCosmobot posted:It'll be worth it to watch what the National Review does alone. "Well, erm, Hillary is Satan, and uh, the SCOTUS and uh... god we just can't bring ours selves to vote for Hillary. Do you have any idea how badly Bill Clinton burned our balls here? Hillary is worse!"
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May 4, 2016 17:24
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ComradeCosmobot posted:It'll be worth it to watch what the National Review does alone. They already have an article with this dude listing all the Sins of Trump and then concluding the graph with "And I'm voting for him anyway".
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May 4, 2016 17:24
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once again, it relies on us minorities to stop you stupid white people from making a huge mistake. i hope some of y'all remember this next time black history month rolls around
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May 4, 2016 17:24
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America is great again.
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May 4, 2016 17:25
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Zelder posted:problem is, everyone else seems pretty motivated to gently caress up trump's whole day Getting people out to vote against the other guy instead of for their own candidate has never proved very effective. Then again, Trump is an almost uniquely terrible candidate and has stomped all over all the rest of the generally accepted logic on these things, so who knows.
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May 4, 2016 17:26
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Zelder posted:once again, it relies on us minorities to stop you stupid white people from making a huge mistake. Thanks, and also for letting us build the country on your bones 
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May 4, 2016 17:26
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Slate Action posted:https://twitter.com/RedState/status/727856561029156864 If the GOP move to confirm him it won't be until after all the primaries are over and probably all the general election filing deadlines have passed to ensure as few senators face last minute vote-splitting challengers as possible. If Garland still isn't confirmed by November and hasn't withdrawn himself from it I can't see the GOP refusing to confirm him in the lame duck if Clinton wins. If she wins and the Dems retake the Senate he's 100% going to get confirmed in the lame duck. Though if Clinton wins and Garland never gets confirmed I can't imagine how completely crushed he'd be if she doesn't re-nominate him.  Grouchio posted:Should I also assume that for the most part Clinton's presidency has become assured? It's her election to lose really. She's starting in a position of strength and while the Democrats are very capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory I would hope Clinton has learned enough of a lesson from the 2008 primary to not take a seemingly long-shot opponent for granted. Plus as soon as the election's underway unless Trump doubles down on his xenophobia and starts recruiting for the Drumpfstaffel during the election the GOP will unite to support him. Though they'll still probably give a ton of focus to vulnerable senators so they can keep the Senate and stonewall Clinton for 4 years. Though if Clinton takes Castro as her VP pick and he starts giving Candidate Obama-like speeches Trump's done. Send Bill and the Obamas out to rally voters while OFA and other groups conduct massive GOTV drives in places like Florida and Ohio as well and Trump's going to need a Faustian deal or two to win. zoux posted:Someone tweeted that Kasich should run a general campaign just in OH and keep both Trump and HRC from 270, throw the election to the House and win the presidency there. Whomever tweeted that's an idiot because assuming Kaisch could get on the ticket there he'd just ensure Clinton wins the state and if she takes Ohio she'd have to somehow lose a state like PA to not be a lock for 270+ EVs. Trump/Kaisch/Clinton in Ohio would be Kaisch stealing some votes from Clinton and a shitload from Trump.
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May 4, 2016 17:28
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ReidRansom posted:Getting people out to vote against the other guy instead of for their own candidate has never proved very effective. Then again, Trump is an almost uniquely terrible candidate and has stomped all over all the rest of the generally accepted logic on these things, so who knows. yeah i think if anyone can disprove that old adage, trump will be the one. he's just awful. i'm extremely excited to vote against his clown rear end.
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May 4, 2016 17:28
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Zelder posted:once again, it relies on us minorities to stop you stupid white people from making a huge mistake. And some people say white people should be allowed to be proud of their race.  EDIT: ReidRansom posted:Getting people out to vote against the other guy instead of for their own candidate has never proved very effective. Then again, Trump is an almost uniquely terrible candidate and has stomped all over all the rest of the generally accepted logic on these things, so who knows. Also, consider Palin. There's a qualitative difference between "Obama is terrible, vote Romney" and "Trump is terrible, vote Hillary" ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 17:31 on May 4, 2016 |
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May 4, 2016 17:28
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Quorum posted:Ballot initiatives are at best a mixed bag and at worst a terrible loving idea (cf. California, always, but especially Proposition 8). The weed in my pipe and the $135 million in tax revenue for the state of Colorado says "lets stay with 'mixed bag'". 
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May 4, 2016 17:42
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The election will be Clinton vs Trump vs some 3rd party candidate, probably Johnson. The GOP isn't going to try and screw over Trump at this point because voters don't like that poo poo. Even a lot of anti-Trump people were put off by Cruz trying to poach delegates and forge a pact with Kasich. Also, I have to wonder if polls in the GE are going to be skewed by people not wanting to admit they're voting for Trump. The folks that would never wear a MAGA hat in public but secretly agree with him.
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May 4, 2016 17:45
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zoux posted:Thanks, and also for letting us build the country on your bones You have been summoned to DaDChat
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May 4, 2016 17:50
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Clinton will almost certainly win at this point but I would be very surprised if Trump got less than 45% of the popular vote. I think current polls aren't taking into account that people don't want to say they are voting for Trump but will pull the lever anyway. The GOP is already starting up Never Hillary.
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May 4, 2016 17:51
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MrChupon posted:The weed in my pipe and the $135 million in tax revenue for the state of Colorado says "lets stay with 'mixed bag'". bowser posted:The election will be Clinton vs Trump vs some 3rd party candidate, probably Johnson. The GOP isn't going to try and screw over Trump at this point because voters don't like that poo poo. Even a lot of anti-Trump people were put off by Cruz trying to poach delegates and forge a pact with Kasich. I guess an election with Trump in it is as good an election as any for America to first exhibit the shy Tory effect. (But this hasn't been the case in the past)
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May 4, 2016 17:51
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I'm still thinking Ben Sasse is going to be on a third party establishment ticket. Probably not as the presidential candidate due to a lack of national name recognition, but a comedically-named VP entry. It's pronounced "Sass" so no matter what, a ticket with him as VP is going to be all about someone's rear end.
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May 4, 2016 17:53
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bowser posted:Also, I have to wonder if polls in the GE are going to be skewed by people not wanting to admit they're voting for Trump. The folks that would never wear a MAGA hat in public but secretly agree with him. This sounds like the 2016 version of the Bradley Effect, which I thought 2008 put to rest.
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May 4, 2016 17:54
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Popular Thug Drink posted:ah, generally leftist moderates who have tricked themselves into thinking they were more liberal than they actually are while they were broke/students Yeah, I'd say this checks out. Regardless, talking to someone in person who actually supports a Donald Trump presidency really is its own, unique kind of disturbing.
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May 4, 2016 17:54
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Boywhiz88 posted:He's literally quitting politics at the end of his Senate term. What I'd love to see is for Congress to pass a ban on becoming a lobbyist for one full term before being hired. That'd put a wrench in his plans. There's a two-year (one full House term) ban with criminal penalties.
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May 4, 2016 17:54
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So at this point what's the over/under on a cabal of Republican donors going nuclear and forcing through a third party/libertarian protest candidate?
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May 4, 2016 17:57
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Radish posted:Clinton will almost certainly win at this point but I would be very surprised if Trump got less than 45% of the popular vote. I think current polls aren't taking into account that people don't want to say they are voting for Trump but will pull the lever anyway. The GOP is already starting up Never Hillary. Romney got 47% of the popular vote so if Trump gets 45-46% Clinton's going to probably be in the 51-52% range at the least while taking Ohio, Florida, and potentially every other toss-up state and in line for a 350+ EV with
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May 4, 2016 17:59
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Reminder again for people who are freaking out about how Trump defied all expectations and actually won and therefore he could upset Hillary: Trump was on top of the primary polling essentially from the minute he descended the Golden Escalator until now, except for that one brief interlude where Ben Carson overtook him and he melted down onstage daring somebody to come up and try to stab him in the belt buckle.
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May 4, 2016 18:01
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Yeah I think Clinton is going to win comfortably but not quite the blowout a lot of people that see Trump as too terrible for Republicans voters believe.
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May 4, 2016 18:02
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Paradoxish posted:Yeah, I'd say this checks out. Regardless, talking to someone in person who actually supports a Donald Trump presidency really is its own, unique kind of disturbing. I know a whole gaggle of them, including one guy who's on disability. It's like they live in a separate reality
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May 4, 2016 18:03
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There's a lot of time for Trump to still say completely insane poo poo, y'all. This could be as close as the polls get.
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May 4, 2016 18:04
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zoux posted:There's a lot of time for Trump to still say completely insane poo poo, y'all. This could be as close as the polls get. DNC oppo says that about 80% of their material hasn't even came out yet. expect to see a lot more talk about his crass comments about women, Trump University, etc
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May 4, 2016 18:05
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SgtScruffy posted:Is Secretary of State Biden a possibility at all in a Hillary Presidency? I wouldn't see necessarily why they wouldn't offer it to him (pending him actually wanting to be in politics after being VP and with his family), it makes sense, but has there been any thoughts on why this wouldn't be A Thing? Kissinger is still alive, so he's the obvious choice. 
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May 4, 2016 18:06
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Prester Jane posted:Trump and Hillary are really working towards two very different goals here. Hillary is hell bent on being the next president of the United States and is designing her organization and her strategy exclusively around that. Trump is portraying a strong man character who is leading a populist movement, Trump isn't actually trying to become president. While I doubt very much that Trump or his campaign possesses the level of self-awareness to recognize this, I feel very strongly that it's easily demonstrated that Trump is actually just in this for the attention, not to accomplish the goal of becoming POTUS. Your theory doesn't explain why Trump was able to dominate the GOP primary against opponents who were definitely trying to become POTUS. I'm not saying you're wrong in your predicted outcome, but the "serious candidate will always beat the joke candidate" is demonstrably untrue and your example proves the converse.
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May 4, 2016 18:08
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I am tempted, like Caligula putting his horse on the senate, to vote trump.
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May 4, 2016 18:09
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MrChupon posted:The weed in my pipe and the $135 million in tax revenue for the state of Colorado says "lets stay with 'mixed bag'". Yes, you are correct to assert that ballot initiatives, and populist measures in general, tend to help privileged majorities or harm socially disapproved-of minorities. This needn't necessarily be a bad thing, as in CO's specific case, but let's not overlook that broader tendency.
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May 4, 2016 18:09
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So. Trump won huh. I mean. At least he's not Cruz.
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May 4, 2016 18:11
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https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/727901111483392000 God I hate that Bernie's campaign is engaging with the OH NO POISONS side of the Monsanto issue. You wanna be on the right side of the issue, Senator? Crusade against genr patents and terminator seeds instead of buying into Chemtrails-level antiscience paranoid fearmongering reactionary BULLSHIT.
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May 4, 2016 18:11
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Unzip and Attack posted:Your theory doesn't explain why Trump was able to dominate the GOP primary against opponents who were definitely trying to become POTUS. I'm not saying you're wrong, but the "serious candidate will always beat the joke candidate" is demonstrably untrue and your example proves the converse. Because the Republicans didn't actually attack him the way a Democrat can feel free too because the Republicans were too afraid to offend his supporters and more over him. So the Republicans didn't attack his racism and sexism openly, they didn't attack or discredit his lack of actual policy substance or experience. basically he won the GOP primary by dragging everyone down to his level because they were desperately afraid they needed his racist white supporters. hillary doesn't have to worry about that.
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May 4, 2016 18:11
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It's the populares vs the optimates all over again. Trump just needs to conquer Gaul and we're off.
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May 4, 2016 18:14
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