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There are only ten states that haven't voted consistently Republican or Democrat in the past four presidential elections - the other 40 plus DC are basically irrelevant. They are (with # of electoral votes): Florida 29 Ohio 18 North Carolina 15 Virginia 13 Indiana 11 Colorado 9 Iowa 6 Nevada 6 New Mexico 5 New Hampshire 4 Without these states, if we assume that the trends hold, Clinton is sitting at 242 EVs already, to Trump's 180 EVs. No loving way Clinton loses Colorado or Virginia to Trump, so give her another 22. She is now at 264, meaning she only needs another 6 EVs to win, out of eight states with a total of 94 EVs between them. Of those 8 states, Obama won 8 of them in 2008 and 6 of them in 2012. So. Yeah. Trump is hosed.
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May 4, 2016 19:05
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Zeroisanumber posted:Northern VA is filled with people who could almost be Hillary clones, and there is no loving way that Donald "Mexican Rapists" Trump is going to win enough of the Latino vote to take Florida. Cubans aren't Mexicans. What has trump said about Cubans?
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May 4, 2016 19:05
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showbiz_liz posted:There are only ten states that haven't voted consistently Republican or Democrat in the past four presidential elections - the other 40 plus DC are basically irrelevant. But showbiz_liz! I'm a low-information voter, how can you know?!?!?!?!?
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May 4, 2016 19:07
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Bunleigh posted:Has the thread talked yet about what happens with the Trumpen Horde when Trump loses? There will be millions of angry racist idiots convinced they got cheated/robbed of their glorious future. Kinda scary poo poo. Clinton is planning one of those "You won a free car" flier stings to lure them all in, then use them to make Soylent.
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May 4, 2016 19:08
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To accompany my arzy map from several pages ago that already has Hillary at 270 in a near worst case scenario I present a map that is about 100 times more likely to occur than any Trump victory. Will this happen exactly like this? Probably not. But Utah, Georgia, and Arizona are definitely in play this election cycle. And North Carolina is probably a safe Hillary bet.
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May 4, 2016 19:08
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Torpor posted:Cubans aren't Mexicans. What has trump said about Cubans? Younger Cubanos are solid Dems, who rightly see that bigotry against "Mexicans" hurts anyone hispanic or even hispanic looking. Older counter-revolutionaries probably love Trump and his hardline stances but they aren't the force they were in the 80's.
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May 4, 2016 19:09
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Nostalgia4Infinity posted:But showbiz_liz! I'm a low-information voter, how can you know?!?!?!?!? You cannot know the unknowable. It's makes u think...
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May 4, 2016 19:09
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Yes, Utah Georgia and Arizona are in play this election cycle. God I want Georgia to flip so loving bad I can taste it
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May 4, 2016 19:09
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MacheteZombie posted:Clinton is planning one of those "You won a free car" flier stings to lure them all in, then use them to make Soylent. If you'll remember, the III%ers are all cowards, they didn't show up to their great revolution when people were begging them to, they probably won't now.
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May 4, 2016 19:10
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Yet Cruz doubled down on the racism (see: policing minority neighborhoods); he only questioned Trumps orthodoxy in terms of Republican economics, he didn't question the vileness of Trump's ideas writ large. There's also a massive difference in a Republican Primary electorate and the more diverse, saner general election electorate. And the base doesn't actually give a gently caress about Republican economic orthodoxy. If anything some of the base seems to be subconsciously aware of the fact that they've been given a big ol' bait-and-switch since 1980. "Sorry we didn't get rid of all the gay Mexican abortionist Muslim communists (again), but we passed tax breaks for people making 1,000 times what you do and outsourced your job overseas!"
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May 4, 2016 19:11
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Trump can win if he wins every 2012 swing state, give or take one or two. It was already an uphill battle for a GOP president, and that was assuming a regular candidate not the Tangerine Dream.
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May 4, 2016 19:11
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Shillary posted:Younger Cubanos are solid Dems, who rightly see that bigotry against "Mexicans" hurts anyone hispanic or even hispanic looking. Older counter-revolutionaries probably love Trump and his hardline stances but they aren't the force they were in the 80's. My roommate is third-gen Cuban and has been talking a lot about this. Basically his grandparents' generation are solidly Cruz and will probably go for Trump now, but he doesn't know any Cubans his age or even many his parents' age who feel the same way.
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May 4, 2016 19:12
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Bunleigh posted:Has the thread talked yet about what happens with the Trumpen Horde when Trump loses? There will be millions of angry racist idiots convinced they got cheated/robbed of their glorious future. Kinda scary poo poo. you mean like in 08 and 12 when a black man strode confidently into the white house and the racist mobs did nothing but make veiled threats about dry powder on facebook for four years these people are cowards
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May 4, 2016 19:13
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I dunno why everyone is so interested in this primary poo poo as Obama is undoubtedly setting into motion his sinister plan to be president forever.
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May 4, 2016 19:14
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zoux posted:Trump can win if he wins every 2012 swing state, give or take one or two. It was already an uphill battle for a GOP president, and that was assuming a regular candidate not the Tangerine Dream. The bigger problem is that with Trump as the candidate the 'traditional' swing states are almost no longer swing states at all. Florida might simply be regarded as solidly blue. The swing states this November will be North Carolina, Georgia, Utah, and Arizona. It goes without saying how disastrous the implications of that are to Trump because, if that ends up being the case, it literally means that he already lost.
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May 4, 2016 19:14
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an article detailing what will happen when trump loses http://www.theonion.com/article/south-postpones-rising-again-for-yet-another-year-377
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May 4, 2016 19:15
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Zelder posted:an article detailing what will happen when trump loses "Either Southerners will start improving themselves, or they'll be sold to middle-class Asians as pets." Checks out. 
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May 4, 2016 19:17
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So some Republicans are burning their voter registration cards in protest of a Trump nomination. Who knows how representative of the electorate this is, but drat is it fun to watch.
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May 4, 2016 19:18
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also i apologize: i just posted a joke about the south in the uspol thread. please do not take this as an opportunity to start lecturing me that most of the black people in america live in the south, i'm well aware, i'm one of them
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May 4, 2016 19:18
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Zelder posted:also i apologize: i just posted a joke about the south in the uspol thread. please do not take this as an opportunity to start lecturing me that most of the black people in america live in the south, i'm well aware, i'm one of them You racist! Clinton will most likely win if nothing truly exciting happens. Though this will at least be an election and a show.
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May 4, 2016 19:20
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SquadronROE posted:If you'll remember, the III%ers are all cowards, they didn't show up to their great revolution when people were begging them to, they probably won't now.
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May 4, 2016 19:20
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showbiz_liz posted:God I want Georgia to flip so loving bad I can taste it speaking as a georgian i doubt it. trump didn't do as well as he could have because of georgia's relatively early primary but he edged out a win in gwinnett county, which leads me to believe he may be able to swing the populous purple suburban counties. he barely lost cobb to rubio. then again the burbs are getting denser and more racially diverse
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May 4, 2016 19:20
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I do predict a couple of hilarious red/blue state flips.
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May 4, 2016 19:21
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Lol I just realized, Trump has a real shot at receiving the least amount of electoral votes by a Republican nominee since Goldwater in 1964. The only two guys that even come close to edging him out with slightly less were dealing with Ross Perot siphoning off their votes in a 3 way race.
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May 4, 2016 19:23
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How are the house and senate looking so far? If republicans hold on to congress I don't expect Clinton to get anything done, and she is more hawkish.
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May 4, 2016 19:24
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showbiz_liz posted:My roommate is third-gen Cuban and has been talking a lot about this. Basically his grandparents' generation are solidly Cruz and will probably go for Trump now, but he doesn't know any Cubans his age or even many his parents' age who feel the same way. Yeah the days of even the GOP placating the Flight 455 terrorists and their supporters are done, no one even cares about the Marielitos anymore. Popular Thug Drink posted:speaking as a georgian i doubt it. trump didn't do as well as he could have because of georgia's relatively early primary but he edged out a win in gwinnett county, which leads me to believe he may be able to swing the populous purple suburban counties. he barely lost cobb to rubio. then again the burbs are getting denser and more racially diverse My husband's family is intimately involved in Georgia politics and you would be surprised how diverse even the rural areas are becoming, especially when it comes to South Asians. Gynocentric Regime fucked around with this message at 19:32 on May 4, 2016 |
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May 4, 2016 19:24
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Popular Thug Drink posted:you mean like in 08 and 12 when a black man strode confidently into the white house and the racist mobs did nothing but make veiled threats about dry powder on facebook for four years Those people had not yet had their monstrous views legitimized by a mainstream candidate yet, also they never liked McCain or Romney whereas to them Trump is Orange Jesus.
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May 4, 2016 19:24
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zoux posted:I dunno why everyone is so interested in this primary poo poo as Obama is undoubtedly setting into motion his sinister plan to be president forever. I'm going to throw in a bit of gloating about that, we've been hearing for sixteen years of Democratic presidency (counting Bill) that they're going to destroy democracy and declare themselves dictators. It hasn't happened yet, which is a shame, Bill looked real swanky in his white military suit in that one Onion article.
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May 4, 2016 19:25
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Torpor posted:How are the house and senate looking so far? If republicans hold on to congress I don't expect Clinton to get anything done, and she is more hawkish. Lookin' pretty good quote:Republicans can afford to lose only a net of three Senate seats to hold their majority, and the party is already defending seven states — Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, and Iowa — that President Barack Obama won twice.
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May 4, 2016 19:26
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quote:A transgender woman was verbally attacked by a woman on the NYC subway, and she caught it all on film. https://twitter.com/ajplus/status/727882871331913728 Also,    
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May 4, 2016 19:26
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It might not have played well with the general populace, but Biden's refusal to give a poo poo even through the election process was one of the best parts of 2012.
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May 4, 2016 19:26
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Bunleigh posted:Those people had not yet had their monstrous views legitimized by a mainstream candidate yet, also they never liked McCain or Romney whereas to them Trump is Orange Jesus. who do you think palin was
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May 4, 2016 19:29
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Oxxidation posted:It might not have played well with the general populace, but Biden's refusal to give a poo poo even through the election process was one of the best parts of 2012. I'm still a bit disappointed that "a bunch of stuff" never became a big catchphrase.
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May 4, 2016 19:30
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Hillary Clinton demonstrated during the
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May 4, 2016 19:30
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zoux posted:I do predict a couple of hilarious red/blue state flips. Trump was only +2 v Clinton here in Texas v  vSure, it was last September, but lol anyway. Also that it was 39-37
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May 4, 2016 19:32
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Torpor posted:Cubans aren't Mexicans. What has trump said about Cubans? This talking point is loving dumb. Cubans are less than 30% of Latinos in Florida.. Even Miami's Latino population is only barely Cuban-majority at this point. And even the Cubans in Florida don't like Trump.
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May 4, 2016 19:32
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Zelder posted:also i apologize: i just posted a joke about the south in the uspol thread. please do not take this as an opportunity to start lecturing me that most of the black people in america live in the south, i'm well aware, i'm one of them There are also white people in the south. Why don't we think about the white people? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjGv6exoKkw
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May 4, 2016 19:32
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When you have a male politician facing off against a female opponent, the man is usually cautioned not to go too hard vs the woman in debates because the conventional wisdom is that the American electorate think it looks bad for a man to (publicly) treat women like that. Trump has subverted a lot of conventional wisdom already, let's see if he subverts this one too.
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May 4, 2016 19:32
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Torpor posted:How are the house and senate looking so far? If republicans hold on to congress I don't expect Clinton to get anything done, and she is more hawkish.
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May 4, 2016 19:33
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showbiz_liz posted:(and yes I know we elected Bush twice,...) About that
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May 4, 2016 19:34
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