EU Politics: I miss Renaults(don't make fun of me)

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > EU Politics: I miss Renaults(don't make fun of me)

ElNarez: Nov 4, 2009

Hey, sorry to break up your debate on the meaning of the word "socialist" in 2016 politics, but, I wanted to put numbers on how crazy hosed the situation is in France.

So, I told you earlier that the left wasn't able to file its motion of non-confidence. That's because you need at least one tenth of the Assembl�e to sign on it. That requires 58 signatures. They only had 56.

This is where it gets hosed. For the motion of non-confidence to pass, you need the majority of all sitting members of the Assembl�e to vote on it, and only the votes in favor are counted. (Meaning abstaining is as good as voting against) Strictly counting the members of the UDI and UMP group, who filed the motion, you have 226 votes. Depending on who you add, you get between 230 and 250 votes. (Jean-Luc M�lenchon claims it's 234, while members of the UDI claim it's at 252, which seems crazy, but, hey, I don't have their math)

Now, the majority in the Assembl�e is set at 288. So, if you add the 56 who signed the leftist motion of no-confidence, you'd need exactly 232 votes for it to pass. Which would be entirely plausible to get. But many of the people who signed that motion do not want to vote for the UDI-UMP motion, because its text basically says the government isn't loving worker's rights enough. However, voting for a motion of non-confidence is different from signing it, and, accompanying it with a text is just a formal procedure that has no impact on the vote itself, since, it's not about the law, but the government that puts its responsibilty on the table in order to pass it.

Which means that, theorically, counting all the members of the Assembl�e that are for the motion of no-confidence, there's enough votes for it to pass, but it won't, because the PS is threatening its members with exclusion from the party, possibly a dissolution, and a major political crisis on the left in any case.

And that's how we are hosed.

French politics!

# ? May 11, 2016 22:59

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# ? May 28, 2024 13:40

Shazback: Jan 26, 2013

ElNarez posted:

because the PS is threatening its members with exclusion from the party

I'm just amazed that these delegates (the "frondeurs") are turning this opportunity down. The PS has taken a beating in the public opinion, and chances are they'll lose big in the next series of elections, in particular the legislative elections. They could take this exclusion as an opportunity to position themselves (locally) as being "true to the promises" of PS 2012, whilst at the same time being free to pick the best horse in 2017, either on the far left, the centre (lol), or whatever happens to the PS when it breaks following their vote of no-confidence.

# ? May 11, 2016 23:20

ElNarez: Nov 4, 2009

Getting out of the PS means you don't get their money and infrastructure when campaigning. And you've got an official PS candidate running against you with both, and splitting the votes, meaning you might not even make it to the second round of voting, and that's pretty much giving seats away to the right, or, worse, the FN. It might not mean much in what's a losing proposition anyway, but it still means enough to be scary.

# ? May 11, 2016 23:31

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

Nothing says democracy like "vote how we say or lose the funding you need to represent your constituents."

# ? May 12, 2016 00:09

Mans: Sep 14, 2011; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

ChainsawCharlie posted:

There is no fooling going on.There is no silent majority earning for the great socialist revolution.the electorate is what it is.there is no fringe left.the fringe IS the left.

I think a lot of people need to came to terms with this.

there's actually a ton of leftism in france it's just that it's the anarchist and trotskyst kind of leftism where if you put 10 special snowflakes in a room they'll make 10 split parties.

unlike in portugal where the cool and good orthodox communist party that will never give up on lenin's sacred flag forced the government to raise minimum wage, decrease electricity bills and encouraged Benfica to a very valorous quarter-final place in the champions league.

# ? May 12, 2016 00:20

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

Mans posted:

unlike in portugal where the cool and good orthodox communist party that will never give up on lenin's sacred flag forced the government to raise minimum wage, decrease electricity bills and encouraged Benfica to a very valorous quarter-final place in the champions league.

This sounds like it reduces corporate profits and having consulted with some Austrians I'm assured that what you're doing is literally worse than slavery.

# ? May 12, 2016 00:23

suck my woke dick: Oct 10, 2012; I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Tesseraction posted:

This sounds like it reduces corporate profits and having consulted with some Austrians I'm assured that what you're doing is literally worse than slavery.

Corporate welfare is the only welfare.

# ? May 12, 2016 00:41

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

blowfish posted:

Corporate welfare is the only welfare.

It is good to see that despite sharing a country with Frankfurt you have your heart in the right place: Austria.

# ? May 12, 2016 00:44

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Whaaaaaat. The CSU is contemplating a split with the CDU over immigration, Islam, and differences concerning the handling of AfD: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/merkel-conservatives-divided-by-right-wing-afd-a-1091491.html

quote:

The rise of the right-wing populist AfD has driven a wedge between Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party. The CSU is now threatening to go it alone, with officials saying they may campaign against the chancellor in the 2017 election.
...
AfD has attracted voters away from many parties in Germany, but the debate as to how to respond to the new threat has been most embittered among conservatives. The Bavarian CSU sees AfD's rise as a consequence of Merkel's leadership, particularly her long-standing efforts to push the CDU to the center of the political spectrum and her stance on the refugee crisis. The CSU believes the latter is to blame for attracting hundreds of thousands of migrants to Germany who would not otherwise have made the dangerous journey.
At a meeting of CSU leaders in Munich last Monday, it became clear just how deep the discord over the chancellor's refugee policies remains. CSU head Horst Seehofer held up a graphic showing the development of refugee flows into Germany. After Sept. 5, 2015, when the chancellor opened German borders to those migrants stranded in Hungary, the numbers spiked, said Seehofer. He then pointed to another point on the graphic: the day when Macedonia decided to close its border. From that point, the CSU leader said, the numbers of refugees plunged.
On one hand, his presentation was an effort to prove that his interpretation of events was the correct one. Merkel continues to stubbornly claim that her Hungary decision and the infamous selfies she took with refugees played no role in attracting migrants to Germany. She says they were on their way to Europe anyway. But Seehofer is also trying to get the chancellor to change her entire approach. The lesson of AfD's rise, says senior CSU member and German Transportation Minister Alexander Dobrindt, is that German conservatives, particularly the CDU, should hew more closely to the CSU line.
...
On Sunday, the party went even further. Speaking on German public broadcaster ZDF, Bavarian Finance Minister Marcus S�der said that divisions between the CDU and the CSU were deeper today than they have been in decades. He too went on to lay the blame for the success of the AfD at the feet of Merkel. "It is obvious that, with the shift to the left undertaken by the CDU, room to the right has been created," he said.
Back in March, at a meeting of the CSU strategy commission preparing for the 2017 general election in Germany, Seehofer presented the main outlines of his party's new approach to the CDU. The CSU head sees AfD as a party catering to those in Germany who feel disadvantaged. As such, he wants to ensure that pensions for low-income earners remain stable, even if it costs the state billions to do so. He also wants to campaign against European Central Bank head Mario Draghi and his insistence on keeping interest rates low.
Should the CDU not follow his lead, the CSU might have to run its own campaign ahead of the 2017 election, Seehofer said. He himself would then become the party's lead candidate in the election, CSU party sources say.

# ? May 12, 2016 08:50

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

Flowers For Algeria posted:

A good thing is that article 49.3 may only be used once per year. A bad thing is that it can be used at all.

French. Politics. Own.

Are you sure about the time limit i remember Rocard using it like 20+ times and i don't remember him being prime minister for that long.

quote:

Why exactly is Manuel Valls in the Socialist Party at all? He seems to be even worse at it than Tony Blair.

It because people like Macron are in there too, so he isn't even looking like the most right-wing one. He didn't go try to celebrate Jeanne D'Arc this year, unlike Macron.

# ? May 12, 2016 11:11

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

LemonDrizzle posted:

Whaaaaaat. The CSU is contemplating a split with the CDU over immigration, Islam, and differences concerning the handling of AfD: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/merkel-conservatives-divided-by-right-wing-afd-a-1091491.html

Well, amicably splitting and thereby getting a larger share of votes while still closely collaborating seems like a very smart play, at least in theory.

# ? May 12, 2016 11:18

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

GaussianCopula posted:

Well, amicably splitting and thereby getting a larger share of votes while still closely collaborating seems like a very smart play, at least in theory.

Doesn't this beg the question of whether the German electorate are stupid enough to fall for it?

# ? May 12, 2016 11:23

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Tesseraction posted:

Doesn't this beg the question of whether the German electorate are stupid enough to fall for it?

Fall for what? They would go into the elections with a clear statement that they want to govern together and the results would influence the concrete policies that will be followed after the election. What is the point in voting for any party that is not projected to get an absolute majority otherwise?

# ? May 12, 2016 11:29

Flowers For Algeria: Dec 3, 2005; I humbly offer my services as forum inquisitor. There is absolutely no way I would abuse this power in any way.

Tesseraction posted:

Waterloo?

The Restauration of the monarchy and of his Grace Louis the XXth.

Toplowtech posted:

Are you sure about the time limit i remember Rocard using it like 20+ times and i don't remember him being prime minister for that long.

The provisions of article 49 were amended in 2008, along with a bunch of stuff.

# ? May 12, 2016 11:33

YF-23: Feb 17, 2011; My god, it's full of cat!

GaussianCopula posted:

Fall for what? They would go into the elections with a clear statement that they want to govern together and the results would influence the concrete policies that will be followed after the election. What is the point in voting for any party that is not projected to get an absolute majority otherwise?

That would be the opposite of smart if they did that, because then the electorate wouldn't trust them to maintain the hardline opposition to the CDU they're trying to get a hold of. It'd be trying to weasel into the votes the AfD gets except with an explicit promise to not deliver on their mission statement.

# ? May 12, 2016 11:38

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

Flowers For Algeria posted:

The Restauration of the monarchy and of his Grace Louis the XXth.

The provisions of article 49 were amended in 2008, along with a bunch of stuff.

"article 49 alin�a 3 : l'usage de cette disposition, qui permettait au gouvernement de faire adopter un projet de loi sans vote du Parlement en engageant sa responsabilit�, est limit� : le gouvernement ne peut d�sormais faire appel au 49-3 que pour les projets de loi de finances ou de financement de la s�curit� sociale ainsi que, dans la limite d'une fois par session parlementaire, pour un autre projet de loi."
Oh yeah, i forgot they put more stuff than just the quite boring "MEN/WOMEN PARITY" thing and the actual Court des comptes changes.

# ? May 12, 2016 11:42

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

GaussianCopula posted:

Fall for what? They would go into the elections with a clear statement that they want to govern together and the results would influence the concrete policies that will be followed after the election. What is the point in voting for any party that is not projected to get an absolute majority otherwise?

So you don't see a problem with a party loudly declaring "WE WON'T STAND FOR THIS ANYMORE" and then promptly riding that wave of popularity into continuing on as if nothing happened?

# ? May 12, 2016 11:47

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

I mean, the Tories pull that poo poo all the time but they also own the media so lol no-one notices.

# ? May 12, 2016 11:47

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

GaussianCopula posted:

Well, amicably splitting and thereby getting a larger share of votes while still closely collaborating seems like a very smart play, at least in theory.

The idea that any such split would or could be amicable seems... deeply implausible, to say the least. You're talking about the fracturing of a decades-old alliance over a core policy issue. That's not something that lends itself to friendliness.

# ? May 12, 2016 11:50

ElNarez: Nov 4, 2009

Toplowtech posted:

Oh yeah, i forgot they put more stuff than just the quite boring "MEN/WOMEN PARITY" thing and the actual Court des comptes changes.

hey fun fact: that disposition was a concession made to the PS, who were for removing the 49.3 entirely

chief among them? Manuel Valls.

# ? May 12, 2016 14:33

Kurtofan: Feb 16, 2011; hon hon hon

Kassad posted:

https://twitter.com/HouseofCards/status/730375464590684160

https://twitter.com/manuelvalls/status/730391854085222400

i groaned

# ? May 12, 2016 14:37

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

forget about lack of voting discipline, holding Churchill as a political paragon should be grounds for instant expulsion from any left-wing political party

# ? May 12, 2016 14:48

Kassad: Nov 12, 2005; It's about time.

That's what a left-wing party should do, yes. It's pretty clear why it was never gonna happen to Valls.

# ? May 12, 2016 16:48

suck my woke dick: Oct 10, 2012; I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

icantfindaname posted:

forget about lack of voting discipline, holding Churchill as a political paragon should be grounds for instant expulsion from any left-wing political party

b-b-but post-war consensus :qq:

# ? May 12, 2016 17:53

suck my woke dick: Oct 10, 2012; I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Tesseraction posted:

So you don't see a problem with a party loudly declaring "WE WON'T STAND FOR THIS ANYMORE" and then promptly riding that wave of popularity into continuing on as if nothing happened?

It's the perfectly pragmatic thing to do for a party that sees being in power as its primary goal. What do you mean you believe politicians should do what's best for their voters.

# ? May 12, 2016 17:56

Pinch Me Im Meming: Jun 26, 2005

The votes are in!

Valls can stay!

# ? May 12, 2016 17:57

ElNarez: Nov 4, 2009

246 votes in favor. The motion of no-confidence failed. No votes in favor from the PS.

Full breakdown by groups:

196 LR
27 UDI
1 RRDP (Center-left group,)
2 EELV (Green party)
11 GDR (Communists)
9 NI (Unregistered)

ElNarez fucked around with this message at 18:11 on May 12, 2016

# ? May 12, 2016 18:01

YF-23: Feb 17, 2011; My god, it's full of cat!

blowfish posted:

It's the perfectly pragmatic thing to do for a party that sees being in power as its primary goal. What do you mean you believe politicians should do what's best for their voters.

No, the perfectly pragmatic thing to do for a party that wants to be in power in CSU's position is to not loving break from the CDU, because in the current arrangement they are actually guaranteed to be in power as long as the CDU doesn't poo poo itself. A break from the CDU would completely jeopardise that, no matter the intention.

# ? May 12, 2016 18:04

Flowers For Algeria: Dec 3, 2005; I humbly offer my services as forum inquisitor. There is absolutely no way I would abuse this power in any way.

ElNarez posted:

246 votes in favor. The motion of no-confidence failed. No votes in favor from the PS.

Full breakdown by groups:

196 LR
27 UDI
1 RRDP (Center-left group,)
2 EELV (Green party)
11 GDR (Communists)
9 NI (Unregistered)

Forever cowards.

# ? May 12, 2016 19:25

suck my woke dick: Oct 10, 2012; I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

YF-23 posted:

No, the perfectly pragmatic thing to do for a party that wants to be in power in CSU's position is to not loving break from the CDU, because in the current arrangement they are actually guaranteed to be in power as long as the CDU doesn't poo poo itself. A break from the CDU would completely jeopardise that, no matter the intention.

not if they intend to enter the default CDU/CSU coalition as the almost-reactionary party.

# ? May 12, 2016 20:32

YF-23: Feb 17, 2011; My god, it's full of cat!

blowfish posted:

not if they intend to enter the default CDU/CSU coalition as the almost-reactionary party.

That's assuming the CDU would accept them back in after they break. They risk the CDU being able to go it alone or with the SPD or FDP. And if they plan to just rejoin the same status quo coalition, they either have to 1. lie about that being their intention, ruining their reputation in the foreseeable future, or 2. just flat out tell the electorate they're talking bullshit about the break, which just makes the break itself a confusing nonsensical mess.

# ? May 12, 2016 20:39

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

YF-23 posted:

That's assuming the CDU would accept them back in after they break. They risk the CDU being able to go it alone or with the SPD or FDP. And if they plan to just rejoin the same status quo coalition, they either have to 1. lie about that being their intention, ruining their reputation in the foreseeable future, or 2. just flat out tell the electorate they're talking bullshit about the break, which just makes the break itself a confusing nonsensical mess.

Exactly. Or, as I put it when GC first contested it:

Tesseraction posted:

Doesn't this beg the question of whether the German electorate are stupid enough to fall for it?

# ? May 12, 2016 20:42

suck my woke dick: Oct 10, 2012; I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Tesseraction posted:

Exactly. Or, as I put it when GC first contested it:

The electorate is never as smart as you think. The electorate is never as dumb as you think.

# ? May 12, 2016 21:04

YF-23: Feb 17, 2011; My god, it's full of cat!

blowfish posted:

The electorate is never as smart as you think. The electorate is never as dumb as you think.

That's a cool platitude, but it doesn't make a fake break from the CDU a "smart move" that would in any way be beneficial to the CSU.

# ? May 12, 2016 21:06

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

Speaking from experience,

blowfish posted:

The electorate is never as smart as you think.

Agreed.

blowfish posted:

The electorate is never as dumb as you think.

Disagreed.

Source: lmao have you seen my government

# ? May 12, 2016 21:09

suck my woke dick: Oct 10, 2012; I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

YF-23 posted:

That's a cool platitude, but it doesn't make a fake break from the CDU a "smart move" that would in any way be beneficial to the CSU.

Well, they could siphon up the Erika Steinbach voters and cheastbeat about bringing Mutti back to the right path.

# ? May 12, 2016 21:13

The Belgian: Oct 28, 2008

Get excited for Ukraine-Russian war part II: electric boogaloo everyone!!!

# ? May 14, 2016 23:40

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

The Belgian posted:

Get excited for Ukraine-Russian war part II: electric boogaloo everyone!!!

Amazingly Poland - Ukraine - Russian ended up as the triumvirate... Yet people believe it's the Swedes, not the Slavs who decide the Eurovision trneds.

# ? May 14, 2016 23:44

V. Illych L.: Apr 11, 2008; ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

steinrokkan posted:

Amazingly Poland - Ukraine - Russian ended up as the triumvirate... Yet people believe it's the Swedes, not the Slavs who decide the Eurovision trneds.

swedes make like half the songs

# ? May 15, 2016 01:19

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# ? May 28, 2024 13:40

punk rebel ecks: Dec 11, 2010; A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

So I'm watching Michael Moore's Where to Invade Next.

How accurate does this film depict Europe's benefits and entitlements?

# ? May 15, 2016 01:31

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