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WhiskeyJuvenile
Feb 15, 2002

by Nyc_Tattoo
https://twitter.com/Eric_Jotkoff/status/731972045404291072

Harry Reid really doesn't like this guy

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Xanderkish
Aug 10, 2011

Hello!
Talking Points Memo reporting that there's a possibility that Trump made only 500,000K a year in at least one of the last three years.

quote:

Some clever sleuthing by Crain's New York Business reveals that Mr Trump, as members of the entourage call him, qualified for a tax break that requires your income be less than $500,000 a year. Yes, if you make more than half a million dollars a year, you can't qualify. But Trump did qualify.

So here's the story. New York state has something called the Star program, New York State School Tax Relief Program. For a married homeowner to qualify your income needs to be less than $500,000 a year. The benefit itself is pretty measly for a real high roller - just a $302 on Trump's penthouse apartment in Trump Tower.

How did Crain's find this out if Trump hasn't released his taxes. Check out the Crain's piece to get the full details. But the gist is that show's up on property tax records with New York City. (If it were most publications I'd figure they didn't understand something about the tax code. But this is one of New York's premier business and real estate news publications. I doubt it's a dumb error on their part.)

quote:

So what's up? In real terms, even what we see on TV - the fancy suits, limos, private jets - would be impossible to sustain on $500k a year. But maybe Trump really is only worth $200m or $300m, as biographer Timothy O'Brien reported a decade ago. Or perhaps he actually is a billionaire but has things arranged so aggressively that he managed to report less than $500k in income on his tax returns. Or maybe he's just an inveterate tax cheat who can't resist a minuscule tax break he doesn't qualify for.

Of course, it could simply be an error as Lewandowski claims - don't you hate it when the government keeps force feeding you tax breaks you tell them over and over you don't qualify for? So, could be, but based on the currently available evidence, Trump makes less than $500k a year - the highlife by the standards of us mere mortals but down and out and desperate by plutocrat standards.

Nothing major, but amusing nonetheless.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Samurai Sanders posted:

That would be quite a hiring frenzy for the state government, for enough people to check IDs at every public bathroom in the state.

edit: wait, are they talking about restrooms in businesses too, or just schools and parks and stuff?

I actually forgot about public bathrooms, I just figured it'd be a hilariously dumb regulation for private businesses. :v:

Daniel Bryan
May 23, 2006

GOAT
https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/731985277108035584

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/731985325044699136

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/731985527294033920

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/731985824045256704

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
Honest question, how much of Trump's worth do you think is completely inflated due to the own value he puts on his name/brand?

Xanderkish
Aug 10, 2011

Hello!

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Honest question, how much of Trump's worth do you think is completely inflated due to the own value he puts on his name/brand?

Let me put it like this: I think, proportionally speaking, he overexaggerates the size of his penis less than he does the size of his estate.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



I'm sure il Douche has "I don't actually need to work and can just sit back comfortably for a natural human lifespan" money but that's a lot less than he's claiming to have. I figure he's counting all the value of the poo poo "he" owns but which is actually largely owned by various bag holders. I would not be shocked if Hillary made more money than him in the last year (though he'd probably try to use that as an attack point); I'm quite sure that Bernie Sanders has made more money than him in terms of campaign contributions.

Donald Trump: Worse at money than the wild-haired Communist.

Zelder
Jan 4, 2012

Mr Hootington posted:

*insert D&D answer about whites and/or poors*

hey man you might want to take a break from us politics, your posting has become incredibly cynical and depressing and half your posts are about some d&d hive mind poo poo. maybe get some fresh air, I dunno

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Honest question, how much of Trump's worth do you think is completely inflated due to the own value he puts on his name/brand?

http://www.slate.com/articles/podcasts/trumpcast/2016/04/trumpcast_when_donald_trump_sued_journalist_tim_o_brien_for_5_billion.html

That is a good podcast on why we will never know Trumps actual worth. He does defiantly inflate his worth.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
Considering Trump now has a billionaire plutocrat publicly coming out and saying that he'll spend 100 million dollars supporting him I have a feeling that he's been struck by the realization that he doesn't have the money to self fund a general election campaign.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
Party of fiscal responsibility folks!

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Honest question, how much of Trump's worth do you think is completely inflated due to the own value he puts on his name/brand?

I'd be surprised if he was worth $100 million, and he claims to have a billion. So at least 10x, possibly/probably more

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
Ah here is the Bloomberg article about tallying up all of Trumps know worth or whatever. http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-07-28/here-s-our-tally-of-donald-trump-s-wealth

Here is the graph from it:

Bloomberg thinks 2.9 billion back in June 2015.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.
I bet if he had to come up with $100 million in liquid assets overnight he couldn't do it.

Eschers Basement
Sep 13, 2007

by exmarx

Daniel Bryan posted:

the day the party died

:vince:

Cabbit
Jul 19, 2001

Is that everything you have?

KomradeX posted:

Nixon was also powered by spite as well

Spite and baseball. Which is sort of like spite, as every true fan of the sport cackles inwardly at the misery its methodical pace inspires in non-fans.

A Man With A Plan
Mar 29, 2010
Fallen Rib

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

I bet if he had to come up with $100 million in liquid assets overnight he couldn't do it.

To be fair even among the very very richest that would be a tall order. Maybe like the Saudi king, but there's not much point in having 100 mil cash around.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Cabbit posted:

Spite and baseball. Which is sort of like spite, as every true fan of the sport cackles inwardly at the misery its methodical pace inspires in non-fans.

Hell is a Yankees v Red Sox game, forever

The Larch
Jan 14, 2015

by FactsAreUseless

Epic High Five posted:

Hell is a Yankees v Red Sox game, forever

Which team is Satan and which team is the damned?

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

A Man With A Plan posted:

To be fair even among the very very richest that would be a tall order. Maybe like the Saudi king, but there's not much point in having 100 mil cash around.

Yeah I know having serious wealth in the form of cash is for pretty poors (defined as anyone worth under a million bucks) but if you're really worth $10 billion it probably shouldn't be too hard to scrounge up the cash looking under the couch cushions.

DACK FAYDEN
Feb 25, 2013

Bear Witness

Cabbit posted:

Spite and baseball. Which is sort of like spite, as every true fan of the sport cackles inwardly at the misery its methodical pace inspires in non-fans.
Football, too. The most humanizing thing I ever read about Nixon was that bit from HST's Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72 where they picked him to ride with Nixon for 45 minutes because none of the other reporters knew anything about football, they talked entirely about football, and Nixon remembered the college that an up-and-coming young star was from.

"That's right, by god! The Miami boy!"

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

A Man With A Plan posted:

To be fair even among the very very richest that would be a tall order. Maybe like the Saudi king, but there's not much point in having 100 mil cash around.

Yeah $100 mil is an unreasonable amount to leave as cash not likely to be earning interest or returns or anything. $20 million would be on the upper end of emergency type stuff with people waiting in the bank with pre-written wire instructions and whatnot. Most people with significant wealth under management will keep $2-3 million or less in a money market account which is used to maintain a (typically 5 figures, usually $25k) daily balance in a household checking account.

The whole thing behind it is that liquidity doesn't have much of an upside past day to day poo poo. You need to buy a property, you will have some time to pay for it. Nobody is going to just leave tens of millions laying around in an account with like <1% yield on the off chance they want to buy the block. Maybe Trump is the kind of rear end in a top hat who considers that type of capability intrinsic to his self esteem but he's probably had plenty of people with more money than he point out how loving stupid it is not to just have it under some form of management as a hedge against inflation at the very least.

there wolf
Jan 11, 2015

by Fluffdaddy

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Yeah I know having serious wealth in the form of cash is for pretty poors (defined as anyone worth under a million bucks) but if you're really worth $10 billion it probably shouldn't be too hard to scrounge up the cash looking under the couch cushions.

There's a big part of me that feels like the real evidence of your obscene wealth is eating whatever loss would come from producing $100 million cash on command.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

STAC Goat posted:

I'm shocked how many conservatives in my life are on this third party train. Like... do they just not understand how this works? You can't be both #NeverTrump and #NeverHillary. You lose, then. Which is fine if you just feel the need to vote your conscience or whatever, but just admit to me that you're basically giving a vote to the candidate you like less. But no, there's just a ton of people in my life who are acting like a third party conservative could win or something. Then toss in the "Bernie Bros"?

A lot of people in my life I thought were otherwise relatively reasonable are turning out to be weird petulant children this year.

There are two reasons that Republicans want a totally not another Republican 3rd party. First, and foremost, they want an outlet for all the Republicans they fear can't bring themselves to vote Trump but also would rather cut off their own arm than vote Hillary. If that is a significant enough demographic in the right states, there goes the Senate with certainty.

Second, and more as a Hail Mary, if that 3rd party actually somehow wins enough Electoral College votes the election gets thrown to the House. Then the House can save the Nation by installing the totally not a Republican 3rd party candidate. This is especially unlikely without Bernie running as well, but theoretically possible. Someone has to win a majority of the Electoral College, not a plurality, in order for the election to not be thrown to the House.

Empress Theonora posted:

how would a third party even get ballot access at this point

Aside from simply getting access in most of the states who still haven't closed access, they can take over established 3rd parties and take their place on the ballot. I believe Nader ran in 2000 on several different parties' tickets.

CelestialScribe posted:

Prepare for an Arzy post.

So the line right now is that Trump simply doesn't have the demographics to win. But what happens if:

- White turnout is up. (GOP registration was it's highest in 2016 for the Florida primary).
- Bernie supporters and Clinton haters stay home. Dems become complacent.

Why is that not a likely scenario?

Aside from the fact that the White vote is on a decades long trend downwards, it's rather silly to count GOP registration in a primary as a strong indicator of anything. Florida is a closed primary, so if you want to vote for Trump or against Trump you've got to be a Republican. This naturally resulted in a lot of voters finally getting around to changing their registration from Democrat, Independent, Non Affiliated, or any other party so that they could vote in the most contested Republican Primary in many cycles.

For the most part, as always, Bernie supporters and Clinton haters will by and large come around by November. Trump is gonna be going full Trump for months by that point, and the divided party almost always heals itself by then.

KomradeX posted:

Looks like Brietbart and Trump are crowing about 44% of Bernie Voters in West Virgina said they'd vote Trump over Hillary. I'm not Arzying, just pointing out how awful West Virgina Democrats can be

West Virginia seems to largely be just among the last couple states to go with the political realignment that the rest of the nation has gone through. Most of those Democrats who say they'll vote Trump were at best voting Democrat in State elections and Republican in national elections already.

Crowsbeak posted:

Maybe after Ryan commits suicide on the house floor there will be a fistfight over who gets to be new speakers. I

Unlikely. At this point any fistfight over who the new Speaker of the House is will be one where loser has to be Speaker.

Evrart Claire
Jan 11, 2008

Gyges posted:

West Virginia seems to largely be just among the last couple states to go with the political realignment that the rest of the nation has gone through. Most of those Democrats who say they'll vote Trump were at best voting Democrat in State elections and Republican in national elections already.

Yeah, they went red nationally in 2000 for GWB and definitely won't turn blue this year. At the state level, it's been a gradual shift red over the past decade. A lot of West Virginians now voting red in state/local elections are also parroting the same "state was ruined by 50 years of democrat rule" that gets used for Detroit.

CannonFodder
Jan 26, 2001

Passion’s Wrench

I am not a tax attorney, but my guess is that all of Trump's real estate ventures are set up under a corporation of some kind where Trump's net worth is tied up in the corporation but his direct income was only from the Apprentice and other ventures like that. Trump's wealth is real estate, and that wealth can build without direct income going to Trump.

Also, adding $500k or regular income for the past 20 years (give or take inflation) is still at the point of being able to buy a private jet, or maybe the jet is owned by Trump Real Estate Conglomerate and there's a ton of legal tax dodging and that's why Trump gets audited by the IRS every year. He was born crossing home plate and acts like he ran out a bunt single.

CannonFodder fucked around with this message at 04:43 on May 16, 2016

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July
Defections from Trump will not be tolerated. Reject your new leader at your own peril, Republicans.

ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 05:34 on May 16, 2016

Daniel Bryan
May 23, 2006

GOAT
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/131456348822061056

:byodood:

limp_cheese
Sep 10, 2007


Nothing to see here. Move along.

Does anybody have that article from a month or so ago where someone did an interview with Trump right before Iowa? It included them meeting his entire campaign staff, which at the time was 5 people, at the headquarters in Trump Tower, which was a floor that was still under construction, in which Trump discussed how he came up with his campaign strategy. The part that really stuck out for me was Trump and his staff listened to right wing talk radio for a few hours a day for months. They figured out which issues people were most incensed about, illegal immigration primarily, and decided those were the issues they would run on. Its honestly a genius strategy.

FCKGW
May 21, 2006

limp_cheese posted:

Does anybody have that article from a month or so ago where someone did an interview with Trump right before Iowa? It included them meeting his entire campaign staff, which at the time was 5 people, at the headquarters in Trump Tower, which was a floor that was still under construction, in which Trump discussed how he came up with his campaign strategy. The part that really stuck out for me was Trump and his staff listened to right wing talk radio for a few hours a day for months. They figured out which issues people were most incensed about, illegal immigration primarily, and decided those were the issues they would run on. Its honestly a genius strategy.

Was it this one?

quote:

Trump taped another season of The Apprentice that year, but he kept a political organization intact. His team at the time consisted of three advisers: Roger Stone, Michael Cohen, and Sam Nunberg. Stone is a veteran operative, known for his gleeful use of dirty tricks and for ending Eliot Spitzer’s political career by leaking his patronage of prostitutes to the FBI. Cohen is Trump’s longtime in-house attorney. And Nunberg is a lawyer wired into right-wing politics who has long looked up to “Mr. Trump,” as he calls him. “I first met him at Wrestle­Mania when I was like 5 years old,” Nunberg told me.

Throughout 2014, the three fed Trump strategy memos and political intelligence. “I listened to thousands of hours of talk radio, and he was getting reports from me,” Nunberg recalled. What those reports said was that the GOP base was frothing over a handful of issues including immigration, Obamacare, and Common Core. While Jeb Bush talked about crossing the border as an “act of love,” Trump was thinking about how high to build his wall. “We either have borders or we don’t,” Trump told the faithful who flocked to the annual CPAC conference in 2014.

Crabtree
Oct 17, 2012

ARRRGH! Get that wallet out!
Everybody: Lowtax in a Pickle!
Pickle! Pickle! Pickle! Pickle!

Dinosaur Gum
Its not really genius if its using the exact words the media has demagogue about for decades. The problem has become like watching family feud for so long you forget what real intelligence actually is and assume that someone making good guesses is smart, so to has the republican machine become so degraded that whomsoever goes after the same enemy they've been trained to hate in the most base and understandable of words is the Once and True Republican. You don't need to actually craft a conservative economic plan, run in the right power circles, praise the old idols or even really be successful or rich. All that matters is a good appearance and an open hate of the right targets.

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010
Any goon reading the Big 3 threads here could have been a 6 figure advior.

Ffuuuuucccccckkkkkkkkkk.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Crabtree posted:

Its not really genius if its using the exact words the media has demagogue about for decades. The problem has become like watching family feud for so long you forget what real intelligence actually is and assume that someone making good guesses is smart, so to has the republican machine become so degraded that whomsoever goes after the same enemy they've been trained to hate in the most base and understandable of words is the Once and True Republican. You don't need to actually craft a conservative economic plan, run in the right power circles, praise the old idols or even really be successful or rich. All that matters is a good appearance and an open hate of the right targets.

I think establishment figures in the primary suffered from being "too smart" with their strategies. Jeb didn't make his act of love comment to win votes in the primary, he and the donor class were already thinking ahead to the general.

Donald Trump on the other hand was able to act independent of existing Republican organizations and money, and focused entirely on winning the primary. Somebody like Rubio could never do that. Not only are people like him dependent on the larger structures that actually try and plan ahead and coordinate, but they also don't want to burn any bridges, after all there's always the next election.

Mia Wasikowska
Oct 7, 2006

Sunset posted:

So how long until society breaks down? I'm sort of being facetious here, but sort of not. Was this sort of thing the norm back in the 50's-70's? I was born in the late 70's so I admit I haven't been around a super long time to compare societal behavior during election years, but some of the news coming out of this election year is just hard to believe. Was alcohol involved? Maybe this sort of thing has been happening a long time and I'm just a ditz, but are we as a society becoming more and more mentally ill and enraged at each other over anything we can find a reason to be enraged over? It certainly seems that way as the years go on and on. I've always felt that there's just not enough kindness in the world, and anger and ill-feelings have run amok.

1968 was a mutherfucker all around the word. We're not there yet

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
I'm sure the echo chamber of the internet inflates the polarization of the political parties somewhat.

limp_cheese
Sep 10, 2007


Nothing to see here. Move along.

Crabtree posted:

Its not really genius if its using the exact words the media has demagogue about for decades. The problem has become like watching family feud for so long you forget what real intelligence actually is and assume that someone making good guesses is smart, so to has the republican machine become so degraded that whomsoever goes after the same enemy they've been trained to hate in the most base and understandable of words is the Once and True Republican. You don't need to actually craft a conservative economic plan, run in the right power circles, praise the old idols or even really be successful or rich. All that matters is a good appearance and an open hate of the right targets.

Its the simplicity of it that makes me say it is genius. Looking at it now it makes sense that a strategy like that would work, but because of how simple it was nobody thought it would work to the degree it has. Sure, you had the assholes dip their toes in the pool to gin up book sales but no one has taken it this far and had it work so well. Its the main reason why I respect him so much as a con man. He is loving good at what he does. Now that here is undeniable proof that this strategy works will we see it more often or has Donald loving Trump finally jumped the shark with the Republican electorate? Since the conventional political wisdom has been so wrong how the gently caress could anyone know?

Before anyone dog piles on me I understand its a primary and he will get stomped in the general barring a meteor hitting the DNC convention. I'll admit I joked that I would vote for Donald Trump because gently caress this gay earth. The joke isn't funny anymore.


It is. Thank you. This is a pro-click to show how little effort it took to win the Republican Primary.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

limp_cheese posted:

Its the simplicity of it that makes me say it is genius. Looking at it now it makes sense that a strategy like that would work, but because of how simple it was nobody thought it would work to the degree it has. Sure, you had the assholes dip their toes in the pool to gin up book sales but no one has taken it this far and had it work so well. Its the main reason why I respect him so much as a con man. He is loving good at what he does. Now that here is undeniable proof that this strategy works will we see it more often or has Donald loving Trump finally jumped the shark with the Republican electorate? Since the conventional political wisdom has been so wrong how the gently caress could anyone know?

The issue isn't Trump jumping the shark, in fact it's that sheer Trumpiness that has even got people talking about the electorate just now jumping the shark. The jump happened in 2012 when :newt: won South Carolina and the electorate was very firm in their decision not to change course after 2008.

Jindal, Santorum, Fiorina, and Cruz were all running campaigns based around the same gimmick as Trump. They're all true believers in the traveling medicine show to varying degrees, but they were right there trying to sell the Miraculous Tincture right beside Trump. Really, it's a testament to Trump's showmanship that he was able to win despite himself. Imagine if Trump was capable of going through the day without needlessly demeaning his opponents or repelling women.

2012 had Gingrich, Cain, and Ron Paul show the future of the electorate.
2016 has Trump and Cruz doubling down on the lessons of 2012.
2020 is going to be a magic carpet ride of hate, though it remains to be seen if even it will be able to top this loving cycle.

The problem for the Republican Party remains exactly the same as it has since 2004. Demographics are outpacing their coalition but the base of the party refuses to acknowledge this fact or change course. As a result, while primary voters are becoming increasingly more out of touch with the general consensus of the country, they have simultaneously become more angry about having their views ignored. It's the continuing myths of the true conservative and the silent majority creating a feedback loop. Each cycle digging themselves further into the hole and making the needed refocusing that much harder. Each midterm convincing them that they were right all along.

Luigi Thirty
Apr 30, 2006

Emergency confection port.

Trump's new nickname for Elizabeth Warren is Pocahontas :stare:

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


KomradeX posted:

Feels like every commencement season we have VSP give commencement speeches about how Liberals need to be more tolerant of war criminals because college is about expanding knowledge and different view points (I thought it was about facts and reality but whatever) so when your school gets someone who is responsible for the deaths of thousands of people, or who makes a living my being a hate monger you need to let them speak

Anyone that gets someone from the Bush/Reagan/Nixon administrations to cancel a job is an American hero. None of those guys have anything of worth to say other than "I plead guilty."

Like it's one thing if the majority of students really want Rice to speak to them about whatever then that's their choice, but acting like Very Serious People have something inherently valuable to say and we need to respect their viewpoints because they worked in government is absurd. I can also respect the opinion that commencement speakers are lame regardless.

Eggplant Squire fucked around with this message at 13:06 on May 16, 2016

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FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Luigi Thirty posted:

Trump's new nickname for Elizabeth Warren is Pocahontas :stare:
He only had the one remaining minority group to offend, and now he's at 100%

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