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Xandu posted:He's still using that garbage polls-plus model on the site though. Wasn't the problem he ignored his own model?
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May 18, 2016 23:16
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Xandu posted:He's still using that garbage polls-plus model on the site though. Hey, it's only done slightly worse than the polls-only model!
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May 18, 2016 23:23
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haha nate silver's self-criticism struggle session
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May 18, 2016 23:25
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Vox Nihili posted:Hey, it's only done slightly worse than the polls-only model! This is my problem with it. Yeah it's close-ish, but it's also objectively worse than just using the polls and that's been clear for a while, so why not get rid of it or make the model beter? Both his models also wildly overestimate the chance of the winner winning, which he sort of acknowledges but has done nothing to correct. Edit: quote:Sanders won in Indiana when our “polls-only” forecast gave him just a 15 percent chance and our “polls-plus” forecast gave him only a 10 percent chance. More impressively, he won in Michigan, where both models gave him under a 1 percent chance. This isn't impressive, it just means your model is lovely. Or more accurately, your inputs are.
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May 18, 2016 23:26
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Tayter Swift posted:Realtalk I've been working in forecasting myself for about six years and the primary thing it's taught me is that Nobody Likes Forecasters the industry comes with some upsides https://weather.com/news/news/meteorologists-least-creepy-profession
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May 18, 2016 23:47
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Xandu posted:This is my problem with it. Yeah it's close-ish, but it's also objectively worse than just using the polls and that's been clear for a while, so why not get rid of it or make the model beter? Yeah, my post was a joke, much like his plus model.
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May 19, 2016 01:25
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stephenfry posted:the industry comes with some upsides https://weather.com/news/news/meteorologists-least-creepy-profession METEOROLOGISTS LEAST LIKELY PEOPLE TO MAKE YOU INTO A SKIN SUIT - Seriously, just get in the van, you're 100% safe
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May 19, 2016 01:30
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more like beta danalyst
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May 19, 2016 02:29
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Nate Silver will knock off Trump at the convention so his past prediction will be accurate
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May 19, 2016 02:31
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What I don't get is why he uses excel at all. He's already said that he uses Stata as part of his analytical toolset, and I'm confused as to what benefit some massive excel macro gives him over any of the excellent statistical software packages available.
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May 19, 2016 02:57
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Mayor Dave posted:What I don't get is why he uses excel at all. He's already said that he uses Stata as part of his analytical toolset, and I'm confused as to what benefit some massive excel macro gives him over any of the excellent statistical software packages available. It's because Nate Silver is a waste, Nate Silver is a big fat mess
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May 19, 2016 03:02
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Once Trump is ushered into power and National Bullying Corps is implemented, Nate Silver will be getting so many noogies.
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May 19, 2016 03:03
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I hope Predictit has a market guessing how long until Nate Silver goes bald.
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May 19, 2016 03:03
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Patter Song posted:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/men-are-sabotaging-the-online-reviews-of-tv-shows-aimed-at-women/ this guy is a college friend of mine and i have made so many jokes about the politics side of the site to him while i've been in town he's cool about it, all things considered
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May 19, 2016 03:25
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Concerned Citizen posted:is this thread now transforming into one of those hate threads in which the target receives irrationally huge amounts of hate and then inevitably ends up actually succeeding? that's actually every thread about trump other than the official trump thread
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May 19, 2016 04:46
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Patter Song posted:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/men-are-sabotaging-the-online-reviews-of-tv-shows-aimed-at-women/ lol He's really pathetically self-loathing. quote:it’s time to ask whether user scores are truly as objective as they purport to be. 
ate shit on live tv has issued a correction as of 07:00 on May 19, 2016 |
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May 19, 2016 06:51
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Mayor Dave posted:What I don't get is why he uses excel at all. He's already said that he uses Stata as part of his analytical toolset, and I'm confused as to what benefit some massive excel macro gives him over any of the excellent statistical software packages available. Excel is legitimately confusing. Why can't I just type out what I want? SAS, Stata, SPSS, R et al. are not exactly lisp level hard and even a clunky script can be used over and over. Most importantly, clicking on poo poo is for suckers.
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May 19, 2016 06:59
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Yudo posted:Excel is legitimately confusing. Why can't I just type out what I want? SAS, Stata, SPSS, R et al. are not exactly lisp level hard and even a clunky script can be used over and over. Most importantly, clicking on poo poo is for suckers. *nate silver furiously typing "donald trump not becoming president" into his by this point sentient excel sheet*
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May 19, 2016 09:13
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The Brown Menace posted:*nate silver furiously typing "donald trump not becoming president" into his by this point sentient excel sheet* He's just a man getting through life the best he can.
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May 19, 2016 14:19
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Mayor Dave posted:What I don't get is why he uses excel at all. He's already said that he uses Stata as part of his analytical toolset, and I'm confused as to what benefit some massive excel macro gives him over any of the excellent statistical software packages available. Excel is great if you have to tweak your data set before actually running calculations/initially uploading the data to the application because doing that stuff in Stata's data editor is stupid and takes more time. I've worked under a few people that write at the website now, and we will always make sure the initial .csv of data is cleaned up in excel first just to avoid variables importing in the wrong type or other stupid poo poo that's easy to miss. That's literally the only point to using excel in conjunction with any platform like that though. Every quant-focused polisci major gets trained on something like SPSS or Stata these days because it's the best suited for the job, and occasionally you'll get some bastard that teaches R because they sperg about how the graphics look too much. I think of Stata as the best middle ground since it's a little more user friendly than something like R, but way more robust than SPSS. Yudo posted:Excel is legitimately confusing. Why can't I just type out what I want? SAS, Stata, SPSS, R et al. are not exactly lisp level hard and even a clunky script can be used over and over. Most importantly, clicking on poo poo is for suckers. If you use macros/Visual basic for excel, you basically can just like a Stata do file would. It's an astonishingly stupid and brittle program/method, and you have to learn a language/system of references that's dependent on the physical placement of numbers in the sheet, but you can do it. Now, why you would ever want to use accounting software that's closer to Quickbooks than a stats package is beyond me, but you could do it.
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May 19, 2016 14:31
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TheGreyGhost posted:Excel is great if you have to tweak your data set before actually running calculations/initially uploading the data to the application because doing that stuff in Stata's data editor is stupid and takes more time. I've worked under a few people that write at the website now, and we will always make sure the initial .csv of data is cleaned up in excel first just to avoid variables importing in the wrong type or other stupid poo poo that's easy to miss. That's literally the only point to using excel in conjunction with any platform like that though. Every quant-focused polisci major gets trained on something like SPSS or Stata these days because it's the best suited for the job, and occasionally you'll get some bastard that teaches R because they sperg about how the graphics look too much. I think of Stata as the best middle ground since it's a little more user friendly than something like R, but way more robust than SPSS. Don't get me wrong, I clean my data in excel just like the next guy, but I wouldn't even do summary statistics in excel much less try to make a monster model to invent actual psychohistory. That's why I thought it was weird; when I was learning graduate statistics it only took a semester or two to turn even the least savvy users into people who can do most anything in Stata. The fact that Nate Silver prefers Excel is just weird to me.
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May 19, 2016 19:14
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Nate started using Excel way way back when he was just a baby sabermetrics nerd and he doesn't seem interested in ever fully switching (there's a rant about it somewhere back in this thread already, actually). My hatred has subsumed significantly since reading his mea culpa article, which is actually really good. Then I try to listen to the 538 podcast argggggh
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May 19, 2016 19:53
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Excel owns pivot tables own don't do gigantic forecasts in excel tho namaste
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May 19, 2016 21:45
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Patter Song posted:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/men-are-sabotaging-the-online-reviews-of-tv-shows-aimed-at-women/ hillary is going on Ellen w/ the cast of the ghostbusters reboot it is now a relevant political issue to the 2016 presidential election. nothing matters.
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May 19, 2016 22:00
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Patter Song posted:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/men-are-sabotaging-the-online-reviews-of-tv-shows-aimed-at-women/ what an rear end in a top hat
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May 19, 2016 22:07
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lol just lol at nate's hairline beating a tactical retreat before he did
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May 19, 2016 22:38
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*waves spreadsheet* Why don't my graphs affect reality? Whyyyyyyy?The Brown Menace posted:lol just lol at nate's hairline beating a tactical retreat before he did  All hair must kneel before the Trump.
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May 19, 2016 23:18
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Can someone repost the tweet or whatever with the pic of Nate Silver with cuck hair
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May 20, 2016 04:32
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Combed Thunderclap posted:Nate started using Excel way way back when he was just a baby sabermetrics nerd and he doesn't seem interested in ever fully switching (there's a rant about it somewhere back in this thread already, actually). He's been salty on the podcasts for a while now - are you talking about the bit where he just railed against the NYT for a while during it?
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May 20, 2016 04:58
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the parts where delusional Mitt Romney guys got mad at him were funny though
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May 20, 2016 06:34
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point of return posted:the parts where delusional Mitt Romney guys got mad at him were funny though and now he's the delusional mitt romney guy getting mad
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May 20, 2016 07:18
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Harold Stassen posted:Can someone repost the tweet or whatever with the pic of Nate Silver with cuck hair Just go to Nate Silver's twitter page it's usually in the top 5 replies for like any tweet he does.
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May 20, 2016 18:28
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Trump first executive order will be to give Nate Silver a swirly
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May 20, 2016 20:47
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Patter Song posted:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/men-are-sabotaging-the-online-reviews-of-tv-shows-aimed-at-women/ this article is so bad it ought to negate any goodwill from his psuedo mea culpa
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May 20, 2016 22:10
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Isn't he a climate change denier/"skeptic" as well?
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May 20, 2016 23:02
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PERPETUAL IDIOT posted:Isn't he a climate change denier/"skeptic" as well? Not exactly, he's just out of his element and trying to be clever. His basic argument in his book is that climate models haven't been very accurate and they've predicted the earth would be warmer than it actually is. But he doesn't really bother to account for governments reducing emissions. 583 did publish a pretty widely-panned article on climate change, but they ended up retracting it.
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May 21, 2016 00:01
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Donald Trump is withholding that sweet, sweet data. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-scorning-of-data-may-not-hurt-him-but-itll-hurt-the-gop/
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May 23, 2016 16:42
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Sebadoh Gigante posted:Donald Trump is withholding that sweet, sweet data. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-scorning-of-data-may-not-hurt-him-but-itll-hurt-the-gop/ the article posted:Data doesn’t win elections; candidates do. Voters don't decide primaries; the Parties do.
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May 23, 2016 23:14
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this is a few months old but my god http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-former-twitch-employee-has-one-of-the-most-reproduced-faces-ever/?ex_cid=538twitter :kappa: :frankerz:
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May 24, 2016 10:40
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May 25, 2016 06:04
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