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Pennsylvania is great because the polls always make the Republicans think they can win it and they end up diverting a bunch of resources to a state that hasn't voted for a Republican since Reagan. Pennsylvania is terrible because people always think that this election is the one where it will flip and doom us all.
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May 21, 2016 06:42
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Litany Unheard posted:Pennsylvania is great because the polls always make the Republicans think they can win it and they end up diverting a bunch of resources to a state that hasn't voted for a Republican since Reagan. From the looks of it, that panic cash is going to GA and AZ this year lmao
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May 21, 2016 06:42
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A Bag of Milk posted:Obama only won Pennsylvania by a little over 5 percent. Is it really that unreasonable that Hillary would underperform there by a few points? 5% is a pretty substantial lead in a highly populated "swing" state. Anyway, the Dems still technically being in a primary race while the GOP is begrudgingly coalescing around their presumptive nominee in of itself is worth a few points. Unless Trump starts consistently polling with an above MoE lead with each polling group, the national polls aren't sometime to be too worried over until we're closer to the conventions.
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May 21, 2016 06:47
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Zerilan posted:5% is a pretty substantial lead in a highly populated "swing" state. Even then, the popular vote will be nearly worthless if trump fails to grab the right electoral college states. It would take quite a bit of effort to beat the dem's built-in lead in that respect. Chelb fucked around with this message at 07:09 on May 21, 2016 |
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May 21, 2016 07:00
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Rollofthedice posted:Even then, the popular vote will be nearly worthless if trump fails to grab the right electoral college states. It would take quite a bit of effort to beat the dem'b built-in lead in that respect. I don't think anything will top the meltdown we'll see if Trump wins the popular vote by running up the score in deep red shithole states and getting no more than 40% or something in every other state, so he wins the popular but loses the EV by 50+ points May be impossible but man, just imagine
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May 21, 2016 07:05
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Epic High Five posted:I don't think anything will top the meltdown we'll see if Trump wins the popular vote by running up the score in deep red shithole states and getting no more than 40% or something in every other state, so he wins the popular but loses the EV by 50+ points Best case scenario for maximum Republican tears. I'm pulling for that outcome.
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May 21, 2016 07:07
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That would be the third Clinton presidency without a majority vote.
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May 21, 2016 07:14
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GalacticAcid posted:That would be the third Clinton presidency without a majority vote. >50%, maybe not because of The Perot Effect, but Slick Willy beat them both fair and square in terms of the popular
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May 21, 2016 07:16
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So, uh, I haven't paid attention to politics of any sort for...well, maybe five or six years at least. But this presidential election has become so heated that I can't ignore it, even in my own little bubble. Moreover, trying to understand the candidates and their platforms has kind of broken the dam I had built up around me .See, I love politics and history, I was just so apathetic and cynical that I made myself stop caring about such things. I guess I'm more optimistic now. I want to learn and I want to pay attention to what's happening here in the US. And that's why I am here. This thread was recommended to me and I in turn need a recommendation from you guys. I'm a liberal and have been all my life but the books in the OP sound fascinating in their study of American Conservatism. Which would you guys suggest, Dionne's When the Right Went Wrong or that trilogy by Perlstein? Note that I can't se very well and thus am forced to use audiobooks. Luckily, Audible has all of these save for the first book of Perlstein's trilogy. I am sure you will say 'read them all" and I plan to but I don't have the money for that next month. I was wondering which one to get for right now?
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May 21, 2016 07:57
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e: removed
BetterToRuleInHell fucked around with this message at 08:05 on May 21, 2016 |
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May 21, 2016 08:01
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My favorite part of the O'Keefe voice mail leak is how staggeringly incompetent even the message he meant to send is. VICTOR KESH: “Hey, Dana. My name is, uh, Victor Kesh. I’m a Hungarian-American who represents a, uh, foundation, and I’m interested particularly in Central European issues, and I’m representing a foundation that would like to get involved with you guys and aid what you do in fighting for, um, European values and some other issues. I wanted to know if there’s a point of contact at Open Society that I could talk to about supporting you guys and coordinating with you on some of your efforts. My number is xxx-xxx-xxxx. That’s xxx-xxx-xxxx. I’m, uh, I’m an American citizen, but, uh, dual citizenship, Hungarian-American, who wants to aid, and give me a call back when you can. Thank you.” Look at that. He's unrelentingly vague, and he clearly had no idea going in what he was going to say, he just made it up at each particular moment. Deep veins of unalloyed idiocy run throughout honestly. I think we're gonna be all right guys.
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May 21, 2016 08:26
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Epic High Five posted:The ideologues aren't going to budge, but poo poo like 47% does have a measurable effect on things so it's a bit bold to dismiss the impact of the general. Especially when one of the targets is someone like Trump, with a world book encyclopedia set of skeletons and attack ad fodder who has only been up against incompetents who couldn't attack him on anything I don't believe the 47% comment had an impact on the outcome of the election. It's certainly not reflected in the polling. How do you measure the 'measurable effect' you claim it had?
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May 21, 2016 08:28
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A Bag of Milk posted:I don't believe the 47% comment had an impact on the outcome of the election. It's certainly not reflected in the polling. How do you measure the 'measurable effect' you claim it had? It resonated through time and created /r/sanders4prez which retroactively created campaign bernie and berniebros for the timeline to remain stable
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May 21, 2016 08:55
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Also I have trouble worrying too much about the polls when the only places that show Trump winning tend to be right-wing polling groups. In general it feels like while Trump has definitely gained due to consolidating support there's also a bit of a split between the polls that are convinced that white voters are totally going to show up huge and those that seem to believe the demographics will resemble 2012.
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May 21, 2016 09:07
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gently caress You And Diebold posted:It resonated through time and created /r/sanders4prez which retroactively created campaign bernie and berniebros for the timeline to remain stable s4p is getting hyped over Clinton losing some support in Puerto Rico or something apparently. It's somehow sadder than when Trump took some territory with 70% early on and bragged about it, only Bernie is still going to lose PR edit - and getting salty over Clinton blowing off this dumbass debate request thing
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May 21, 2016 10:06
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NikkolasKing posted:So, uh, I haven't paid attention to politics of any sort for...well, maybe five or six years at least. But this presidential election has become so heated that I can't ignore it, even in my own little bubble. Moreover, trying to understand the candidates and their platforms has kind of broken the dam I had built up around me .See, I love politics and history, I was just so apathetic and cynical that I made myself stop caring about such things. I guess I'm more optimistic now. I want to learn and I want to pay attention to what's happening here in the US. I'd start with the Perlstein trilogy. I've read the first two books myself, but it's not like you need to read them in order - I would start with Nixonland, which strikes right at the heart of the Southern Strategy and the race strategy that the GOP adopted in the 1960s and 1970s and whose culmination Trump can be considered. Reading Nixonland two years ago before Trump's ascendancy was already creepily familiar. I pray things don't get as horrible as they did in the 60s, but the rhetoric is not far off. It also brings up the point of the conservative scapegoat: the Republicans stayed the course after Nixon because they could point to Nixon's disgrace and say that all that bad stuff about us was actually Nixon and not in the core of the party, it's all cool now; we might see the same happen if and when Trump gets wiped out in the GE. Of course the proper descent to "gently caress the Poors" territory began with Reagan, which is where Invisible Bridge comes in.
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May 21, 2016 10:26
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Kilroy posted:What the gently caress are you even on about? Saying "I didn't vote for Romney" isn't "virtue signalling" whatever that even is - at best it demonstrates that a person meets one of the bare minimum standards to not be an atrocious human being. Also I'm allowed to respect a person in a general sense because of their genius as an entertainer, yet have that tarnished somewhat because they lent implicit support to a war-mongering rear end in a top hat. Did you even read what you just wrote? "it demonstrates that a person meets one of the bare minimum standards to not be an atrocious human being." Demonstrates that one isn't an atrocious human being Demonstrates a 'virtue' Jesus tap dancing Christ.
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May 21, 2016 10:32
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The_Book_Of_Harry posted:Did you even read what you just wrote? good to know you're keeping the bar for virtue so high
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May 21, 2016 11:14
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look at me I'm not literally frying up and eating babies, what a virtuous human I am
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May 21, 2016 11:15
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A Bag of Milk posted:Obama only won Pennsylvania by a little over 5 percent. Is it really that unreasonable that Hillary would underperform there by a few points? Then all Trump needs to do is overperform in the Pittsburgh and Philly suburbs while nabbing Ohio, Florida, and the Romney states and he'll be president. FL+OH+NH+IA+CO is another plausible path. Of course, he's a serious underdog overall still, but his chances are at least 30%. I think it's very important to remember that Obama is a Black Man. I mean, sure, Hillary is a Woman, but she's a White Woman. That's got to be worth at least a point or two across the board. I don't really see anything to worry about in Pennsylvania this time that isn't worried about every time people convince themselves that the state is totally in play this time. quote:Another thing relevant to this post that's been floating in my head and I want to put out there is the punditry wisdom that says 'states don't really matter because national polling tells the story' might break down a little bit this election. Hispanics are an easy example here, geographically isolated in states Trump doesn't really need to compete in, mostly in the southwest. If Hillary wins Cali and New Mexico by huge margins, and Nevada comfortably, that could inflate her national popular vote standing while bringing her nowhere closer to a win. This cuts both ways. Trump's leads in the Republican strong hold states are similarly going to be lopsided and run up his lead in the White Vote numbers. Romney won Texas by 16%, Arizona by 9%, and Georgia by 8%. If Trump Trumping cuts those leads by just a point or two then that's going to severely damage his potential to win the national popular vote. It is possible for Trump to win. It's just highly unlikely at this point due to having to run the field in the swing states. Added to this North Carolina's Republican Governor is doing his level best to piss off everyone, Trump is actively pissing off various minority groups that the GOP usually just callously ignores, and Trump refuses to run his campaign by anything other than the seat of his pants. Generally, all the stuff that happens between the parties determining their candidates and election day amounts to not much more than fiddling with the edges of the percentage difference in the final vote. Binders full of Women and 47% just highlighted the already mortal failing of Romney's campaign. However, Trump is enough of a rogue actor that it's entirely within reason to believe that he can say or do something to really tank his numbers. Sure, there's also the possibility that he says or does something that helps his campaign, but given how he operates it's much, much more likely he uses the RNC as an overbearing testament to his ego and spends several minutes of his acceptance speech talking about how much he'd love to gently caress his daughter.
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May 21, 2016 12:55
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1-800-DOCTORB posted:Isn't John McAfee still wanted in Belize for murdering his friend? John McAfee Does Meth, Stabs Man, Evades Police Joementum posted:In 2008 someone in a Guy Fawkes mask jumped the stage during the debate. In 2012, the leader of the Utah delegation announced his vote wearing a full Confederate soldier uniform. It's pretty much what you'd expect. what year was that when during the libertarian primary? debates that one of the candidates was extremely forthcoming about the proposed legality of child prostitution or was it underage pornography and child labor i forget
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May 21, 2016 13:46
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H.P. Hovercraft posted:what year was that when during the libertarian primary? debates that one of the candidates was extremely forthcoming about the proposed legality of child prostitution 2008. That was Dr. Mary Ruwart and she did a "sorry, not sorry" act about that passage from her book about children being rational market actors.
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May 21, 2016 13:47
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Epic High Five posted:From the looks of it, that panic cash is going to GA and AZ this year lmao And Florida, depending on how Voldemort decided to suppress voters in November.
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May 21, 2016 15:21
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Yoshifan823 posted:I follow Jamelle Bouie and it's 33% him tweeting about his job, 33% responding to dipshits who respond to tweets about his job/chastise him for being anti-Bernie/say racist poo poo during one of the first two things, and 33% photography. It's pretty cool. I do like how he gets a little racist with it at the end, that's neat
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May 21, 2016 15:23
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Hey can't most of Trump's success just be attributed to him just having become the defacto nominee?
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May 21, 2016 15:26
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Crowsbeak posted:Hey can't most of Trump's success just be attributed to him just having become the defacto nominee? Yeah but that's not as fun for arzying and horse racing
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May 21, 2016 15:33
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Crowsbeak posted:Hey can't most of Trump's success just be attributed to him just having become the defacto nominee? Yup, that's pretty much the source of the recent successes. It's the same effect as when Romney won the nomination, the rest of the party more or less sighs and goes "Fine...we'll support him." The only difference is that instead of the wingnuts being forced to support the establishment nominee, the establishment is being forced to support the wingnut nominee (which I find funny to watch). I'm sure there will be fractures and infighting and general insanity later on, but for now they have to all get along just to prove they were/are part of the team.
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May 21, 2016 15:36
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Cythereal posted:And Florida, depending on how Voldemort decided to suppress voters in November. They worked very hard in 2012 to give the state to Romney and it didn't work. No reason to think that Governor Platonic Ideal Of The Visage Of A Serial Killer can pull it off this time.
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May 21, 2016 15:37
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A Bag of Milk posted:Obama only won Pennsylvania by a little over 5 percent. Is it really that unreasonable that Hillary would underperform there by a few points? Yes. Pennslyvania is a deceptive state, it usually only votes a little bit more Democrat than Republican, but it does so consistently. Since the 1960s, it's only gone Republican in years where Republicans have had straight up landslides. The reason is that there is strong Democratic turnout in Philly, Pittsburgh and a few other places that overwhelms Republican turnout in the rural areas. The low margins constantly entice Republicans to think they can win the whole thing, but they just plain don't unless it's Nixon/Reagan/Bush I landslides. When 2004 came around Kerry won over Bush 50.92-48.42 which is 2.5% and the closest Republicans have come to winning it since 1988 (when they won by 2.31%).
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May 21, 2016 15:37
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Overall I can't help feeling like there's probably a reserve of anti-trump voters who will only bother to turn out if it gets close in their state. If Trump is anywhere near winning PA the lines in Philadelphia will be all the way around the block.
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May 21, 2016 15:58
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Agreeing with whoever said listen to Keeping it 1600 then El Chapo Trap House. Both good, but better in that order.
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May 21, 2016 15:59
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I can't decide if the conventions or the first general debate will be when Trump's polls tank. Right now's the flared base that keeps your rear end from sucking down the whole dildo.
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May 21, 2016 16:02
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Lesbian couple gets $80,000 settlement after arrest in Hawaii for kissingquote:They were walking through the aisles holding hands and at one point hugged and kissed, the lawsuit said. Officer Bobby Harrison, who was shopping in uniform, “observed their consensual romantic contact and, in a loud voice, ordered plaintiffs to stop and ‘take it somewhere else.”’ 
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May 21, 2016 16:13
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538 had a good look at Pennsylvania as a tipping point for electoral college that is worth a reason. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pennsylvania-could-be-an-electoral-tipping-point/
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May 21, 2016 16:14
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The bullshit about all this was the DA refused to let them leave the county for months, so they both lost their jobs and were stranded in Maui. All because they were kissing in a private store and then didn't play along with a power tripping cop. So honestly, I doubt $80,000 even makes them financially whole. And of course no one gets punished.
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May 21, 2016 16:19
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:538 had a good look at Pennsylvania as a tipping point for electoral college that is worth a reason. What I get out of this is that the Dems could focus a huge chunk of their efforts in Pennsylvania and win just by maintaining their hold there, while the Republicans will need to dump cash into at least five states to have a hope of a chance.
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May 21, 2016 16:36
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Yoshifan823 posted:I follow Jamelle Bouie and it's 33% him tweeting about his job, 33% responding to dipshits who respond to tweets about his job/chastise him for being anti-Bernie/say racist poo poo during one of the first two things, and 33% photography. It's pretty cool. Counterpoint: yelling at dipshits who wander into your mentions is rarely funny, and Bouie's method of just saying "look at this stupid person" to repeated posts of "that person is stupid" by his followers is even worse.
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May 21, 2016 16:43
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Litany Unheard posted:What I get out of this is that the Dems could focus a huge chunk of their efforts in Pennsylvania and win just by maintaining their hold there, while the Republicans will need to dump cash into at least five states to have a hope of a chance. Now keep in mind: the DNC is in Philadelphia this year. There's already going to be a lot of Democratic involvement in the state, and that's going to spill over beyond the convention proper. Plus PA recently elected their supreme court back to a democrat majority for the first tiem in years and brought in a democratic governor, which means Republican efforts at voter suppression are going to be way harder.
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May 21, 2016 16:44
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fishmech posted:Now keep in mind: the DNC is in Philadelphia this year. There's already going to be a lot of Democratic involvement in the state, and that's going to spill over beyond the convention proper. Plus PA recently elected their supreme court back to a democrat majority for the first tiem in years and brought in a democratic governor, which means Republican efforts at voter suppression are going to be way harder. There's a reason Pat Toomey is scared shitless
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May 21, 2016 16:49
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Some local news station in Georgia did a very good piece on how ALEC cranks out bills for state legislatures. Not sure why it's catching fire now since it's a year old, but I found it interesting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MHYOB5uptc
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May 21, 2016 17:05
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