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That's insane. Getting into TSLA stock in any sense is insane. I firmly believe TSLA is completely messed up from a product delivery and revenue PoV, but I also know that the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. Especially whenever Elon Musk is involved.
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May 25, 2016 19:13
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I'm trying to think of other examples of companies with a weird cult of personality around the CEO and nothing else really comes close. Jamie Dimon? Marisa Mayer (up until a couple years ago anyway)? Obviously Steve Jobs of yesteryear. It's such a strange dynamic. According to the rumor mill he's spending more and more time on SpaceX and less and less time with Tesla anyway, but who knows.
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May 25, 2016 19:22
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Mike Pearson of VRX had a lot of "value" guys absolutely entranced. "Is there fraud at the company Mike?" Lol.
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May 25, 2016 19:25
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Tesla is absolutely hosed in the long term but I can't pull the trigger. Their products are well loved and irrationality can keep it afloat a long rear end time.
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May 25, 2016 19:29
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Why do people like cal Maine (calm) but the stock does nothing?
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May 25, 2016 19:38
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VendaGoat posted:S&P; exceed 2100 and stay there or crater down to 1800 by June 8th? Micro bullish, but intermediate neutral until this could no longer be seen as a lower high. I'm not buying here and now. I did add a little on the open, but I'm mostly holding what I bought yesterday. We're running low on stops to run. If we make a fresh high for the year, expect a few more points off swing-high stops, but institutions need to like buying at these prices for this to continue (maybe they'll FOMO buy like in March?). If institutions don't start buying, we'll melt back down to yesterday's value area at 2070, and if that's still not good enough for them, the monthly value area begins at 2060. We went far fast, so I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of the week is digestion. It's a long weekend, too. I don't see 1800 in two weeks time, but I don't really trade Spoos for that time frame. There are a lot of VPOCs and NPOCs for us to snag on between here and there. Financials are participating in this move, and Europe's not sucking too much poo poo at this microsecond, so those are good signs, as well as junk bonds holding their own. We did make a fresh 20-day low last week, but we're making a fresh 20-day high here and now. We're above my favored moving averages, and momentum's cautiously bullish. Of course if you look at monthly moving average crosses or overlay the current daily chart over ones from 2000 and 2007, it looks like we're rolling over, but there's some statistical issues with the sample size. I know that's how Paul Tudor Jones forecasted 1987 (in 1985 for 1986, though, I think?), but I'll buy when I see a buy and sell when I see a sell. Through this run I've seen people adjusting their crash correlations to different swings, like Elliot Wavers renumbering waves when the fifth never comes or whatever, so I'll stick to my tools. If it works for them, good. Doesn't for me. Eventually they'll probably get the analog right, though, and be really proud of themselves, like how eventually a Fibonacci retracement level or Darvas box signal is hit. Leperflesh posted:With government payments, US unconventional is 12% of production at $21 a barrel, but without government payments, US conventional is 62% of production at $11 a barrel? What? Barrels with and without royalty payments are on different curves because their fundamentals are wildly different. Two identical wells, using identical production techniques, tapping into the same reserve, differentiated only by one of them being on federal land, have statistically significant cash cost differences due to royalty payments. If the $10/bbl tax I heard about recently goes through, both will slide $10 up the global production cash cost curve. It's a curve. As global costs rise, global production rises, with labeled nodes being producers Morgan Stanley Research thought were significant for their readers. There might be a better way to model this data, but personally I don't see what's wrong with using an unsmoothed curve, especially since it's consistent with past work. That consistency lets you easily compare this month's curve relative to last month's curve, relative to this month last year's curve, relative to curves made by other researchers, etc. Pryor on Fire posted:Ok I talked myself into shorting the gently caress out of TSLA at 220.30 If it makes you feel any better, UBS reports a lot of institutions on your side of the trade. Whether or not that's bad, well I guess we'll see.  TSLA is a nail that needs to get hammered, but with each terrible earnings report it floats higher on a cloud of hopes and dreams. It's volatile piece of poo poo, so I'd take some off once you lock in something good, so you don't get a pain trade going. You can always add back into your short. Perrrrrrrrrsonally I would have not entered the trade until there was more weakness. Torpor posted:Why do people like cal Maine (calm) but the stock does nothing? I don't think people do. Nasdaq reports 55% of the float held short.
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May 25, 2016 20:00
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what brokerages do you guys use?
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May 25, 2016 20:08
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Triglav posted:. But on the flipside there's absolutely no positives they can trot out now. They've unloaded all barrels in order to issue more stock. They'll be back for more in no time. I didn't give a poo poo about Tesla until I read that ridiculous Hyperloop white paper. How can anyone read that and not see it as the work of a self important, autistic man-child is beyond me. He literally thinks you can wave a wand and make things cheaper because he says so. Take this for example: he estimates the all in cost at 6 billion. A 36" 400 mile gas pipeline will run you a cool billion dollars with no compression. Just construction, ROW, materials and logistics. The hyperloop is like 90 inches or something. With a gas pipe you can optimize right of way savings by optimally snaking through cheaper to obtain land. But a pipe designed to handle a car hurdling at 800 miles an hour has to have such low radius that you can't pick where the pipe goes. Plus he has a few thousand tons of concrete supports. And stations and cars. And vacuum pumps/blowers. You're talking about being off by at least an order of magnitude in price alone. And the materials of construction on the pipe? He just pulls a pipe thickness out of his rear end in a top hat. Like, he doesn't even bother looking up easily accessible pressure vessel build standards developed by API. Invents a spec just because. Guess what? The pipe thickness he picked is below what a gas pipeline would. A tube with a constant vacuum in it. Hyperloop. THAT caused Tesla's shares to skyrocket. There's your loving self proclaimed genius there. I'm basically a bit above functionally retarded and I can pick holes in his bullshit. But we've got Carnagie Melon engineering students developing hyperloop pods and startups soaking in VC capital to "develop" Elon Musk's fever dreams. poo poo's gonna crash and burn. He doesn't have the money to build the model 3 even now. How long he can keep the game up, however, is anyone's guess
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May 25, 2016 20:20
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I watched that Hyperloop demo video and all I could think was "they invented this 200 years ago, it's called a TRAIN." A bunch of cars going really, really fast along a track? Japan has those that go 200mph!
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May 25, 2016 20:23
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Luigi Thirty posted:I watched that Hyperloop demo video and all I could think was "they invented this 200 years ago, it's called a TRAIN." A bunch of cars going really, really fast along a track? Japan has those that go 200mph! 200mph and 700mph are very different things.
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May 25, 2016 20:31
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Kal Torak posted:200mph and 700mph are very different things. Yeah it's loving science fiction. That's the point. I didn't even get into safety, logistics, powered by solar  etc. It's such a retarded idea I just can't even
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May 25, 2016 20:33
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oxsnard posted:Yeah it's loving science fiction. That's the point. I didn't even get into safety, logistics, powered by solar That's fine. But I wasn't taking issue with your post. I was taking issue with comparing it to a high speed train.
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May 25, 2016 20:36
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Still think the video of those Hyperloop employees cheering the first test (a little rig going 60 MPH and crashing into sand) is so funny.
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May 25, 2016 20:44
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We proved that magnets work!
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May 25, 2016 20:45
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Okay, I skimmed through a Hyperloop video on YouTube, and I... don't know. Something about humans hurdling at high speed through a pressurized elevated tube across Central Valley, California for $6B sounds questionable. Just the first 100mi stage of the new high-speed rail project, looking at that same area, using some existing track, is the same cost. It feels like they heard about the train project and wanted to promote something weird, something innovative! But I guess the price tag's to be expected given Musk's track record with corporate finances. HamsterPolice posted:what brokerages do you guys use? Interactive Brokers for trading. Vanguard Brokerage Services for long-term stuff. ( IBKR shareholder  )
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May 25, 2016 21:03
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oxsnard posted:We proved that magnets work! If only we knew how
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May 25, 2016 21:07
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Triglav posted:Interactive Brokers for trading. Vanguard Brokerage Services for long-term stuff. thanks yeah i can only afford long-term stuff right now
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May 25, 2016 21:09
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oxsnard posted:But on the flipside there's absolutely no positives they can trot out now. They've unloaded all barrels in order to issue more stock. They'll be back for more in no time. Have you put money down? The train seems to be moving fast and i wouldnt want to stand in front of it
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May 25, 2016 21:12
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HamsterPolice posted:thanks yeah i can only afford long-term stuff right now You can still do long-term stuff on IB if you want, but they're definitely geared more towards active traders, putting emphasis on back-end cost and speed and not the front-end user interface. From what I've seen, ThinkorSwim has an okay interface. People I know who use it lament its occasional lagginess, though. IB's lowest-volume stock commission is $0.0035 per share per side, plus exchange, clearing, and regulatory fees. For low-volume trading, 100 shares round trip is probably around $2. I'm not sure exactly, though. It depends on routing sometimes. I also mostly trade futures and have exchange memberships and volume discounts. But compare that $2 round trip to ThinkorSwim, $10 per side, $20 round trip, or other brokers at $5–7 per side, $10–14 round trip, and I think IB's $2 round trip's a little nicer. IB's also a prime broker, not an introducing broker, so it's not like they fly by night. IB's the custodian of billions of dollars in investor assets, does not have a trading desk, and is generally pretty risk adverse. There's also a phone app called Robinhood that I see a lot of people using when I look around online. It has free trading, but that sounds risky to me. I can only imagine the company's matching you with shares held within their dark pool and never hitting an exchange (that's fine), eating commission costs when they run out of shares and need to hit an exchange (that's not a good sign), acting like a inter-bank forex broker by purposefully giving you bad fills to make money off the transaction at your expense (that's exploitative), or a combination of all three. Personally I can't imagine trading off Robinhood, nor can I imagine trusting them as my custodian. I can't imagine trading off my phone either in any case, but if you're doing long-term stuff, I guess it shouldn't really matter.
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May 25, 2016 21:57
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Took me a while to get it as well, but I think the X axis is cumulative production, MMBBL/d, not percentage of worldwide production. What I don't get is, how are nationalized oil extraction companies paying huge royalties (UAE, SA, etc)? I don't see how Saudi extraction costs more than Mexico for example.
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May 26, 2016 01:21
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Saint Fu posted:Took me a while to get it as well, but I think the X axis is cumulative production, MMBBL/d, not percentage of worldwide production. What I don't get is, how are nationalized oil extraction companies paying huge royalties (UAE, SA, etc)? I don't see how Saudi extraction costs more than Mexico for example. I like how we're all trying to figure out wtf this chart is trying to show (not least the unlabelled x axis) and that's probably indicative that we shouldn't give a poo poo about it. If whoever put it together couldn't figure out how to display the data appropriately, they probably can't be trusted to compile the raw data correctly either. Triglav, what the gently caress do you think they were trying to show? Where did you find it? Or was it just a "check out this loving godawful chart"?
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May 26, 2016 01:28
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A recent Morgan Stanley Research report. Axes are cash cost and global liquid cumulative production. It shows the average cost of extracting oil from different regional wells of different types before consideration of company-specific arrangements for storage, transport, and debt servicing, with a second curve for wells that require royalty payments for the use of government-owned land. I feel the curve gives a read for about when certain producers might be online. If you prefer something more simple, here's breakevens instead of a cash costs, with a different X axis, with specific wells placed all on the same curve, instead of on two curves differentiated by taxes, from Citigroup. But the report's older and is a projection. Projections suck.  Also CLN6 is at $49.87 in the overnight as I write this. Tonight might be the night. Prepare for $50 oil rebirth articles. Also maybe I should just put all my net worth in soybean meal at this point. Who needs to trade anymore. Just buy soy meal, gently caress it. Nothing more to do.
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May 26, 2016 02:38
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IMF is telling you that Iran needs $130 a barrel, they get sanctioned for a year, and still around a year later causing pain to everyone else. Someone didn't pass economics in college. You can realistically throw out $30-80 a barrel for most people to break even or make a profit. It isn't like Exxon went from $40 a barrel, added a ton of production, and now requires $70 a barrel. Nobody really can do the math and bases it off current contract prices. Todays oil service and rig contracts are 1/4 to 1/2 of what they were last summer. I remember seeing $10 million coring jobs at work and everyone having cook offs at work and now we're lucky to see a 7 digit ticket ever and loving hot dogs once a quarter.
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May 26, 2016 04:09
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TDW is down 33% after reporting earnings.
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May 26, 2016 16:38
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Guys I bought a bit of USO, and now it is down. You are welcome for the discount. I dont know why every time I buy a stock it HAS to go down immediately after I buy.
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May 26, 2016 17:21
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sleepy gary posted:TDW is down 33% after reporting earnings. I've reached a new low of only -83% on TDW!
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May 26, 2016 17:36
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The Shep posted:I've reached a new low of only -83% on TDW! Yah, I dunno if its gonna make it or not now. This earnings report was crap.
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May 26, 2016 17:59
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Anyone know when the next earnings report for Tesla is expected?
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May 26, 2016 19:42
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El Mero Mero posted:Anyone know when the next earnings report for Tesla is expected? https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&ei=1UNHV-iVJcapmAG02ZKoAg Events, on the right. Aug. 3rd
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May 26, 2016 19:44
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$CMG - Chipotle Last two quarters have obviously been bad - $835M = Q1, 2016, and $997M = Q4 2015 BUT - Q3 2015 was $1.2B, and Q2 2015 for $1.1B. Anyone taking a bite? I feel weird investing in something I can only buy two shares of.
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May 26, 2016 19:51
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Customers are still down after all the food-borne illness stuff from what I see around town. They're probably eating some costs with all the free-meal coupons they're doing, too. I'm sure they'll rebound long-term, but my system says wait for more confirmation. I don't know when their next earnings is, but that could give it juice. While it might immediately look like a good sign that CMG stopped falling, they're still under-performing their sector, and instead of taking part in the last few month's rally, they sold off.
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May 26, 2016 22:03
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Triglav posted:While it might immediately look like a good sign that CMG stopped falling, they're still under-performing their sector, and instead of taking part in the last few month's rally, they sold off. What I don't see with Chipotle that I would expect from a long term winner is an effective moat. Now, to be fair, I've only been to Chipotle when travelling (I'm in Canada), but there's nothing about the experience that stuck out to me - it's the same experience and menu at any burrito place. The regional burrito place here - Mucho Burrito - are a very small chain, but even they seem to do a better job of rotating their speciality items (currently they're doing Ghost Pepper Burritos with some kind of super-hot fig sauce... they're pretty good) and trying to distinguish themselves somehow. Maybe Chipotle's advertising is particularly effective, or maybe it's assumed some sort of cultural position in the US that I don't see as a Canadian, but it seems like they may have a harder time maintaining their position than would normally be expected from a fast-food place. Again, from the outside looking in, the Chipotle brand just looks like "the same stuff, but higher quality" or something. It's obviously positive to be known for quality, but it's a very difficult image to maintain over time as your organization grows, and it limits your room to maneuver (eg. it makes experimenting with wacky items way more high-stakes because a failure will tarnish your reputation really fast; and the experimentation space was already going to be limited based on their restaurant configuration). I could certainly be missing something, but their long term growth prospects don't look amazing to me.
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May 26, 2016 22:35
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jmzero posted:What I don't see with Chipotle that I would expect from a long term winner is an effective moat. Now, to be fair, I've only been to Chipotle when travelling (I'm in Canada), but there's nothing about the experience that stuck out to me - it's the same experience and menu at any burrito place. The regional burrito place here - Mucho Burrito - are a very small chain, but even they seem to do a better job of rotating their speciality items (currently they're doing Ghost Pepper Burritos with some kind of super-hot fig sauce... they're pretty good) and trying to distinguish themselves somehow. That said, their restaurant operations are extremely strong, like probably best in sector. They're generally able to deliver the same experience no matter which store you're at, and even the most crowded stores churn people through extremely efficiently. They also do novel things (for the food sector) like 'pay decent wages' and 'fire underperforming employees' which means their workforce generally cares about customer experience. They're currently around 2000 stores which leaves plenty of room for domestic growth (assuming people still want it), and they have basically no international footprint at all. Their food quality and brand name probably give them as effective a moat as anyone in the fast-casual industry, but I don't know anyone in the sector that has a really strong one. wyoak fucked around with this message at 23:25 on May 26, 2016 |
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May 26, 2016 23:22
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Did the populace wake up to the no queso thing?
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May 26, 2016 23:55
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Chipotle's Subway or Cold Stone but for burritos, targeting middle- and high-income areas. In my experience, there's one on every college campus, and even the ones not near colleges are always filled with college-aged kids. Another company in the restaurant space that I think is interesting is HABT, but their chart stinks. Triglav fucked around with this message at 00:00 on May 27, 2016 |
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May 26, 2016 23:58
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Goodpancakes posted:Did the populace wake up to the no queso thing? Part of Chipotle's brilliant marketing is about it being 'healthy' food. Not fast food, not even really fast casual. Queso would damage that.
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May 27, 2016 00:02
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If you want to invest in fast casual, buy Shake Shack.
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May 27, 2016 01:09
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Triglav posted:Another company in the restaurant space that I think is interesting is HABT, but their chart stinks. The habit is pretty drat good, probably the best hamburger joint you can invest in since you can't put money into in-n-out. I have no idea why its stock looks like its heading to zero though. I guess its still a relatively expensive stock when you look at the actual numbers. Although I think they have the potential to massively expand, just as much as SHAK or more. Speaking of SHAK, 50 mill per restaurant, what the gently caress? http://www.businessinsider.com/what-shake-shacks-restaurants-are-worth-2015-5
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May 27, 2016 01:22
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I would kill someone for a Cook-Out IPO.
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May 27, 2016 01:30
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I've been eating Chipotle for 15 years nearly once a week; grew up in Colorado. Between extensive traveling the past few years and now living in a new place, I've been to a bunch of not very good locations. The QC seems to be bad on taste and consistency. The other bad news is that slower foot traffic in stores means the food stays out longer between batches. Doesn't seem the same to me. Had it last week and it was meh so I think I'm done for awhile. Of course that's just a my observation, but personally I'd stay away. The multiple is still really high and I think they might have plateaued.
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May 27, 2016 01:37
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