|
Spoeank posted:Anywho, I'm about to write an article that's basically FF for newbies (the site I write for is primarily a lifestyle site). I'm thinking: -"experts" are garbage, too -in season management infinitely more important than draft i think handcuffs are a beginner trap and probably wouldn't target noobs with a handcuff article
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2016 06:50
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 9, 2024 22:44 |
|
|
Every year since 2012 we've had a fantasy football league over in Trad Games and it's usually oriented towards being very newbie friendly.So I've written a few newbie guides, which you should feel free to mine. All links require archives: Newbie guide to your weekly schedule (oriented towards our ESPN league but almost all of the info still applies to other hosts): http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3653687&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=2#post433104706 Leperflesh's Guide to Not Totally Sucking at Drafting, for Fantasy Football Newbies: (with illustrations! only addresses snake drafting, not auctions.) http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3653687&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=2#post433212496 Both guides use example players based on the 2014 preseason and (mostly) 2013 season, so definitely take a moment to laugh at how wrong I was and then sub in better examples.
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2016 08:06
|
|
|
Anyone have a good list of players who get a boost from punt/kick return scoring (1 pt per 25 yards)? Off the top of my head, some of the higher ranked options that get a boost are: Antonio Brown Tyler Lockett Jarvis Landry
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2016 15:11
|
|
|
Cervixalot posted:Anyone have a good list of players who get a boost from punt/kick return scoring (1 pt per 25 yards)? Abdullah, possibly Duke Johnson, and Bruce Ellington. Abdullah especially.
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2016 15:25
|
|
|
If you're in a return yards league, Jarvis Landry is a legit low-end WR1, dude was so money last year
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2016 17:21
|
|
|
Dandy Kaiser posted:If you're in a return yards league, Jarvis Landry is a legit low-end WR1, dude was so money last year Ssssssh! 
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2016 18:20
|
|
|
I'm curious as to what everyone thinks about Dez Bryant this year. He had X-rays on his foot and still isn't cleared to participate fully in OTAs. Also Tony Romo is made out of dust and I don't think the Cowboys have done anything to address their backup QB situation. He is obviously incredibly talented but there are so many question marks that I think I might leave him off my board unless he takes a nosedive in adp.
|
|
#
?
Jun 3, 2016 23:51
|
|
|
Dandy Kaiser posted:If you're in a return yards league, Jarvis Landry is a legit low-end WR1, dude was so money last year Forget Landry (670 yards, lol please), Lockett went for 1200 and Abdullah 1100. In 1pt/25 yards, that's an extra 480 and 440 yards, giving Lockett equivalent of 1150 and Abdullah equivalent of 1200 total yards from scrimmage. Especially if no PPR, those return yards really boosted those two in the rankings.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 00:49
|
|
|
Yeah except Landry is already a WR2 that's mostly underdrafted and those 700 return yards push him into top-10 territory while his ADP still sitting at mid-range WR2
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 02:09
|
|
|
Yeah, last year among all players, Landry, Lockett, and Abdullah were 2, 4, and 5 in all-purpose yards, respectively. The fact that Landry got more of those yards from scrimmage makes him more valuable, not less.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 02:26
|
|
|
MrSargent posted:I'm curious as to what everyone thinks about Dez Bryant this year. He had X-rays on his foot and still isn't cleared to participate fully in OTAs. Also Tony Romo is made out of dust and I don't think the Cowboys have done anything to address their backup QB situation. He is obviously incredibly talented but there are so many question marks that I think I might leave him off my board unless he takes a nosedive in adp. I'm with you on this one. Last year was a bit of an anomaly in that both him and Romo sustained major injuries, but I think that the main point to be gleaned from that is that his monster numbers are totally dependant on both of them being healthy because I really don't see him producing under any other QB on the roster right now. That being said, in the not so off chance that Romo and Dez stay relatively healthy and Ezekiel Elliot is the real thing, that Cowboys offense is going to be absolutely deadly and Dez will be a top 3 WR. So, long story short, I'm taking Dez if he falls to me as WR 6+, but I'm too risk adverse to pick him up sooner than that even though I fully believe he will outperform. Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 02:57 on Jun 4, 2016 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 02:52
|
|
|
Dandy Kaiser posted:Yeah except Landry is already a WR2 that's mostly underdrafted and those 700 return yards push him into top-10 territory while his ADP still sitting at mid-range WR2 Landry is already a WR2, but Lockett and Abdullah go from, what, borderline flex plays, to strong RB2 and WR2? Not saying to draft them over Landry obviously, but their value is much more affected by return yards, so they're much more gods of return leagues than dumb "I improve from WR#16 to WR#13 or whatever with return yards" Landry. sourdough fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Jun 4, 2016 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 02:52
|
|
|
Landry goes from 16 to like 8 and Lockett and Abdullah will still go late enough that you can target them and reasonably get them regardless of where you're drafting. Whereas, you may only get one shot at Landry because of your draft slot and if you're in a return yards league (especially PPR), you should totally "reach" on him because he's the BPA. So basically, yes, we're both right but goddamn Jarvis Landry in a return yards league is a game changer. As long as you don't get a CJA in the first  
Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 03:13 on Jun 4, 2016 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 03:11
|
|
|
I still can't believe CJA in the first was a thing
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 03:42
|
|
|
I have a serious problem and have been following the slow draft thread. With that said seeing Alfred blue drafted even in the 20th round just boils my blood. DONT DRAFT BLUE HE poo poo
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 03:59
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:I still can't believe CJA in the first was a thing I had him in the 16th with Charles in the 12th, and Hill in the 8th for my three offensive players.Definitely changed my draft strategy and I ended up with AJ80 and sadness. None of them are currently on my team and I'm entering the season with Jarvis Landry in the 1st; and Dion Lewis and Josh Gordon at FA (15-16th) as my only keepable players
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 04:50
|
|
|
Metapod posted:I have a serious problem and have been following the slow draft thread. With that said seeing Alfred blue drafted even in the 20th round just boils my blood. DONT DRAFT BLUE HE poo poo It's round 20 and we're practically drafting players who may have a bullshit 3 TD game in week 8 at this point since it's bestball.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 05:00
|
|
|
Josh Gordon still huh......................... Huh
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 05:00
|
|
|
I WAS DESPERATE e: I basically picked him up at the FA keeper deadline because I knew my team was barren Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 05:40 on Jun 4, 2016 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 05:24
|
|
|
VietCampo posted:It's round 20 and we're practically drafting players who may have a bullshit 3 TD game in week 8 at this point since it's bestball. Metapod posted:Alfred blue drafted even in the 20th round just boils my blood. DONT DRAFT BLUE HE poo poo
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 05:24
|
|
|
Dandy Kaiser posted:Landry goes from 16 to like 8 and Lockett and Abdullah will still go late enough that you can target them and reasonably get them regardless of where you're drafting. Whereas, you may only get one shot at Landry because of your draft slot and if you're in a return yards league (especially PPR), you should totally "reach" on him because he's the BPA. Maybe I'll draft a redeem team somewhere. At RB, go for Lacy, CJA, Hyde, Melvin Gordon, maybe Abdullah after he definitely didn't fulfill his rookie hype train, Foster as a late round flier. For WR, Jordy, Cobb, Kelvin Benjamin, White, Perriman, SSS, Josh Gordon obviously. I feel like most of the WRs that disappointed were injury rather than performance, except Cobb and probably a few other guys I'm forgetting. I want a good team this year, so guys like Andre Johnson don't count. TE will be Graham and... Bennett?! Just kidding, won't draft a TE. Edit: Couldn't get all these guys at their ADP, but these would be some of the guys I'd target. sourdough fucked around with this message at 12:09 on Jun 4, 2016 |
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 12:06
|
|
|
Dandy Kaiser posted:
Thanks for the trigger warning.
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 12:59
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:I still can't believe CJA in the first was a thing You too, rear end in a top hat
|
|
#
?
Jun 4, 2016 12:59
|
|
|
Okay we need some action in this thread so here are a few "sleepers" or guys who will be under-drafted that I have been considering far too early. 1. Allen Hurns - I actually don't see his production as a #2 regressing that much next year. I think the Jags have something special with the Allens and Hurns will continue to produce as at least a WR3 for a pick in the 6th or later. 2. Mark Ingram - He will likely go higher in competitive leagues but as a fellow poster pointed out to me, I completely undervalued him in my initial projections. It's easy to do when his numbers are more consistent than flashy. 3. Devante Parker - He finished out the season with some stellar numbers and with the departure of Matthews, he is definitely the #2 receiving option and has a chance to break out this year when defenses focus on Landry. 4. Marvin Jones - He is a receiver I will target at 10+ because I think the risk is worth the reward. He has shown flashes of great play and is going into an offense where the #1 receiver has exited. I am absolutely not saying he can fill Megatron's shoes, but his only competition is Tate and Ebron so the potential is there. 5. Austin Sefarian Jenkins - Loved Spoeank''s post on Tight End and i will be hitting the late round flier group like I did with Eifert last year 6. Eric Ebron - Same reasons as Jones in terms of opportunity, saw a lot of red zone targets and hopefully he continues to develop 7. Alfred Morris - I feel like he will be a TD vulture in the Cowboys offense and has the potential to carry a decent burden of the carries if Dallas decides to ease in Elliott. 10+ pick for me. 8. Dion Lewis - Currently going in the mid 5th but I think he slips to at least the 6th where I will be happy to take him. I'll do more as they come to me. As always feel free to tear it apart.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 02:07
|
|
|
MrSargent posted:Okay we need some action in this thread so here are a few "sleepers" or guys who will be under-drafted that I have been considering far too early. Comments are based on a 10 team, 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLX league with 0.5 PPR. Allen Hurns: Not much has changed between this year and last when Hurns put up 8 games as a WR3 and 4 as a WR1. Last year's WR14, I'm not entirely sure why his ADP is the middle of the 6th and his value projection has him as a borderline WR3. At least based on my projections I won't be drafting him. Jordan Matthews is a full two tiers ahead of him and goes around the same time, and his tier is filled with other late round gems like Devante Parker, Marvin Jones, and Torrey Smith. That said there's nothing preventing his upside from going high and the Jaguars look to be heading in the right direction so anyone who feels the need to "reach" for him isn't really looking terrible. Mark Ingram: I won't be drafting Ingram. While he pulled RB2 or better games in 10 of the 12 games he played last year, he hasn't had a full healthy season since 2012. Of course there's nothing preventing you from drafting Tim Hightower late (he's currently undrafted) as a handcuff, but given the depth at RB this year I'd rather use that third round pick on a Brandon Marshall (assuming Fitzmagic is back) or Demaryius Thomas. Devante Parker: Projections have him in the same tier as Hurns but going a full round later. He pulled WR3 numbers in 3 of the 8 games he played, but again the opportunity cost is a question. Should I draft a player like Parker on upside, or go for a player like Decker (again assuming Fitzmagic is back) who scored WR3 numbers in every game he played? I like Parker and have high hopes for the Miami offense in general, but it's hard to grab him when there are so many value plays I could pick up instead. Marvin Jones: Once again we're in the same tier as Parker and Hurns, only now with an ADP of 11 there's a solid chance he'll be available. I think Detroit is going to do well with their new offensive coordinator and think everyone in this offense is underrated. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins: He's basically free at this point. Projections remain super low (he's barely above Jimmy Graham and four of the seven players in his tier go undrafted), but if you believe the injury label is off and Tampa's offense will improve then he's worth taking a flyer on. That said there are other players ranked up in a higher tier that are drafted behind him and might be worth taking instead, like Julius Thomas or... Eric Ebron: Ebron is projected as the TE11 in an offense that I expect to do well. If you're not interested in going with an elite prospect (incidentally Reed is currently projected to be in the same tier as Gronk) then drafting him late is a solid idea. Alfred Morris: I love Alf and was sad to see him leave Washington. That said I'm not convinced he's worth drafting. I think it's more likely that if Elliott isn't the bellcow people expect (and I am not a fan of drafting rookies as starters), but there's nothing about Morris that stands out relative to McFadden. I mean he's a reliable and awesome guy, and behind that line it's hard not to love him, but I consider him to be solidly a flyer in a season where there are plenty of other RBs to snag late. Dion Lewis: His ADP is 5.3, his ADP is 5.3, but his projections lump him in with the likes of Duke Johnson and Jay Ajayi (albeit with a skew that suggests a high level of upside). The reason? Two projections (FantasySharks and Rotowire) have him basically unstartable and that's dragging his value down. My guess is that they aren't as wiling to trust a NE RB as others.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 03:12
|
|
|
I'm putting together a piece called "ADPs That Make No Sense" and Dion Lewis is the reason why. Total steal.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 03:14
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/RotoPass/status/739536822913671168 I've been pretty drat happy with RotoPass myself.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 03:15
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:I'm putting together a piece called "ADPs That Make No Sense" and Dion Lewis is the reason why. Total steal. Is it? He's recovering from an ACL tear, and while we've seen significant improvements in recovery there's no guarantee that he comes back in the same form he was last year. While New England did nothing to address the RB position in the draft, LeGarrette Blount is only 29 and has plenty left in the tank. Lewis's ADP of 5.3 is not a place I would be drafting a player with that level of risk. There are plenty of other RBs going around him that would be worth considering like DeMarco Murray, Carlos Hyde, and Latavius Murray. WRs going around that point include Golden Tate, Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, or Doug Baldwin. You could even luck out and get Jordan Reed who has an ADP in the middle of the fourth but could easily slide. The earlier the pick the lower my tolerance for risk, and I don't think the upside Lewis offers is sufficient to warrant drafting him at his ADP.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 03:24
|
|
|
I haven't gotten to WRs... Cobb has a round 5 ADP?! Can I change my answer. I'm hoovering up as many Cobbs as I can. And that was when I thought Cobb was round 3/4. (Edit: full disclosure I haven't looked at a lot of rankings or ADP data because I'm trying to do as much as I can on my own thought process) Spoeank fucked around with this message at 03:35 on Jun 7, 2016 |
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 03:33
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Comments are based on a 10 team, 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLX league with 0.5 PPR. Thank god someone responded. Overall you have a lot of great points but I'd like to run through them. I would really like to hear who you like at the positions I like these guys because I really have nothing to compare to. Allen Hurns - Jordan Matthews looked terrible last year in that he couldn't catch an on-target pass to save his life. I think he is over-ranked for being the Philly #1 receiver but don't deny there is potential. Hard to trust him though. Mark Ingram - I posted a bit about Ingram's injury history and why I feel the worry is not entirely warranted. Demaryius won't last until the third by the time the draft comes around. If Decker signs with the Jets, there is no way Marshall lasts until the third. Devante Parker - Who are the value players you would grab at the same ADP? Decker will go a full round ahead of him at least. Dion Lewis - I don't think the projections accurately take into account how the Pats use Lewis. He is like a hybrid back/Edelman and most of his big games were due to his receiving ability. Keep in mind I am trying to think about where these guys end up come September but I really dont know anything.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 03:39
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Is it? He's recovering from an ACL tear, and while we've seen significant improvements in recovery there's no guarantee that he comes back in the same form he was last year. While New England did nothing to address the RB position in the draft, LeGarrette Blount is only 29 and has plenty left in the tank. Lewis's ADP of 5.3 is not a place I would be drafting a player with that level of risk. There are plenty of other RBs going around him that would be worth considering like DeMarco Murray, Carlos Hyde, and Latavius Murray. WRs going around that point include Golden Tate, Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, or Doug Baldwin. You could even luck out and get Jordan Reed who has an ADP in the middle of the fourth but could easily slide. This changes things a bit. I don't know how Murray/Hyde/Murray2 last until the 5th to be honest. Baldwin/Maclin/Cobb in the 5th would be nothing but money, I just don't see how they end up going that late.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 03:42
|
|
|
Why do people believe that the Jaguars passing offense won't regress this year? I have trouble buying that Hurns, or even Robinson, will repeat last year's numbers. The Jaguars were 9th as a team in red zone opportunities per game, but 19th overall in terms of yards/drive and red zone scoring efficiency. Looks prime for regression, especially touchdowns, to me. Also, Dion Lewis is a total loving boss and, if healthy, will repeat his performance from last year. Belichick and Brady loved what he could do for that offense and he was making dudes whiff in space constantly.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 11:33
|
|
|
Tiptoes posted:Why do people believe that the Jaguars passing offense won't regress this year? I have trouble buying that Hurns, or even Robinson, will repeat last year's numbers. The Jaguars were 9th as a team in red zone opportunities per game, but 19th overall in terms of yards/drive and red zone scoring efficiency. Looks prime for regression, especially touchdowns, to me. Yeah, Hurns will certainly regress, but if he's being priced as a WR3 and not a high end WR2, that's already taking it into account. I'm happy with him as my WR3 personally, but no way I take him over Cobb or probably Matthews.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 11:53
|
|
|
Why is Cobb going so late? Didn't he play nearly all of last year with a shoulder injury?
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 12:13
|
|
|
Forever_Peace posted:Why is Cobb going so late? Didn't he play nearly all of last year with a shoulder injury? I assume it's a combination of poor performance, the return of Nelson, and a run on RBs in the round ahead of him.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 12:21
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:I'm putting together a piece called "ADPs That Make No Sense" and Dion Lewis is the reason why. Total steal. Other folks to look at in ppr that seem low: Danny Woodhead (5th/6th), Breshad Perriman (11th/12th), Matt Ryan (11th-13th), Kendall Wright (13th). In the early and mid rounds I'll be scooping up Lewis/Cobb/Ingram/Rawls/Mathews/Tevin Coleman wherever I can. Really like the mid-round RBs this year. If it stays this way, a ppr draft from the 4-6 of something like Nuke/Alshon/Rawls/Lewis/Woodhead/Brady/Abdullah/Moncrief seems within the realm of possibility.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 13:48
|
|
|
PPR Backs? "Don't you forget about me. Don't don't don't. Don't you. Forget about me." - Theo "Ridic" Riddick
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 14:39
|
|
|
Tiptoes posted:Why do people believe that the Jaguars passing offense won't regress this year? I have trouble buying that Hurns, or even Robinson, will repeat last year's numbers. The Jaguars were 9th as a team in red zone opportunities per game, but 19th overall in terms of yards/drive and red zone scoring efficiency. Looks prime for regression, especially touchdowns, to me. Because bort should get better
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 15:44
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Is it? He's recovering from an ACL tear, and while we've seen significant improvements in recovery there's no guarantee that he comes back in the same form he was last year. While New England did nothing to address the RB position in the draft, LeGarrette Blount is only 29 and has plenty left in the tank. Lewis's ADP of 5.3 is not a place I would be drafting a player with that level of risk. Not to mention from week 13 on, James White seemed to be a pretty serviceable pass-catching back for them. Tiptoes posted:Why do people believe that the Jaguars passing offense won't regress this year? I have trouble buying that Hurns, or even Robinson, will repeat last year's numbers. The Jaguars were 9th as a team in red zone opportunities per game, but 19th overall in terms of yards/drive and red zone scoring efficiency. Looks prime for regression, especially touchdowns, to me. I'm sitting on a couple shares of Robinson in dynasty leagues and I'm really, really torn on trading him or not because of this. It seems like now is a prime sell-high point for him but then again, the entire dynasty community seems to think of him as a locked-in top 5 studmuffin and I'm not exactly swimming in talent in my teams that I can afford to release a stud. Amergin fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Jun 7, 2016 |
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 16:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 9, 2024 22:44 |
|
|
Metapod posted:Because bort should get better Sorry for mobile links, but https://m.numberfire.com/nfl/news/7709/why-blake-bortles-is-bound-to-throw-fewer-touchdowns-in-2016 https://m.numberfire.com/nfl/news/7880/5-big-play-quarterbacks-who-could-regress-in-2016 https://m.numberfire.com/nfl/news/7917/5-big-play-nfl-pass-catchers-who-could-regress-in-2016 https://m.numberfire.com/nfl/news/7660/which-wide-receivers-will-score-fewer-touchdowns-in-2016 Etc etc. You can quibble with any specific thing they look at or how valuable you think something like NEP is, but all signs point to the Jags passing game being less valuable in fantasy next year.
|
|
#
?
Jun 7, 2016 16:35
|
|