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Zombie Samurai posted:Trump has 50% of the white male vote. Yeah, honestly that's a result that makes me a bit skeptical of this poll that also makes me real happy. Every other poll I've seen has him killing it with white men so, you know, grains of salt.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:16
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Zombie Samurai posted:Trump has 50% of the white male vote. Questions and methods here: http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rc0NltTBR0ug/v0 I think this is nice too How would you describe your enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton as the presumptive Democratic nominee— very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, just somewhat enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic? (Asked only of Clinton supporters; n=332. MoE: ±5.4 percentage points.) 43 Very enthusiastic 22 Fairly enthusiastic 25 Just somewhat enthusiastic 11 Not enthusiastic - Not sure How would you describe your enthusiasm for Donald Trump as the presumptive Republican nominee— very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, just somewhat enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic? (Asked only of Trump supporters; n=333 MoE: ±5.4 percentage points.) 33 Very enthusiastic 24 Fairly enthusiastic 30 Just somewhat enthusiastic 12 Not enthusiastic - Not sure For each of the following candidates, please tell me if the person is becoming more appealing to you or less appealing. (Rotate list.) Asked only of likely voters; n=750. MoE: ±3.6 percentage points. More appealing Less appealing Same Not sure A. Hillary Clinton 46 51 2 - B. Donald Trump 33 64 2 1
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Jun 14, 2016 22:21
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Has there ever been a solution or methodology change to polling, since most under-40s don't have landlines at all and calling people's cell phones is still kind of illegal?
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Jun 14, 2016 22:24
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Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders give Trump some talking points.quote:"The time is ... long overdue for a fundamental transformation of the Democratic Party" https://twitter.com/politico/status/742797809259302912 quote:We have to replace the current DNC leadership. We need someone who vigorously supports bringing people into the political process. https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/742827722116718592 Sanders: Replace DNC leadership
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Jun 14, 2016 22:24
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zoux posted:Yeah, honestly that's a result that makes me a bit skeptical of this poll that also makes me real happy. Yeah, unfortunately I have to be skeptical too, because it looks like they did not lead off with the horse race question for their polls, which is usually a big flaw. Its fine to ask how likely you are to vote first, but after that you need to start with the horse race question so that your other questions do not sway them one way or the other.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:24
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MariusLecter posted:Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders give Trump some talking points. Old man yells at cloud
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Jun 14, 2016 22:24
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:They're an evil corporation who treat their workers like poo poo, but they don't discriminate. 
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Jun 14, 2016 22:25
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Naga Warlord posted:Here's the full context of that quote: Scalia probably made the strongest argument for legalizing same sex marriage even though he was trying to argue against it at the time.  A Winner is Jew posted:Well then I've got some good news for you. Can't wait to see what the telecomms do with their appeal in November when Clinton wins and we either get Garland confirmed or Clinton gets to make a pick right off the bat and they have to decide if they want to waste time and money appealing to a court that will be at best 5-4 against them and at worst might be 6+ against them.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:26
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Everblight posted:Has there ever been a solution or methodology change to polling, since most under-40s don't have landlines at all and calling people's cell phones is still kind of illegal? Its not illegal to poll cell phones, just expensive since they have to have a live person to poll a cell phone.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:27
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Everblight posted:Has there ever been a solution or methodology change to polling, since most under-40s don't have landlines at all and calling people's cell phones is still kind of illegal? Automatic cell phone dialing is illegal; manual dialing is not. A few years ago, pollsters were avoiding cellphones because of the manual labor involved. Nowadays, any polling firm worth their salt is contacting landlines, and they've increased their prices to cover the cost of having interviewers have to manually dial to compensate. lovely polling firms are still going to have garbage methods, but for most reputable pollsters it's a non-issue now.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:30
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Northjayhawk posted:Its not illegal to poll cell phones, just expensive since they have to have a live person to poll a cell phone. Pollster here: Not illegal at all, we do it all the time. It's illegal in some states to autodial to cell phones, but that doesn't stop us.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:30
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Northjayhawk posted:Yeah, unfortunately I have to be skeptical too, because it looks like they did not lead off with the horse race question for their polls, which is usually a big flaw. Its fine to ask how likely you are to vote first, but after that you need to start with the horse race question so that your other questions do not sway them one way or the other. His trend line is real bad though, so that's good. 
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Jun 14, 2016 22:31
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:Obama on "radical islam" (@ 13:00) Holy poo poo this owns. This is scathing and the line about how politicians fall under the protection of those who work to fight ISIS, pause "even those who tweet", was awesome.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:32
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Jun 14, 2016 22:32
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:About that polling bump, https://t.co/QRFZy9yX2b zoux posted:His trend line is real bad though, so that's good. So when do we start hearing chatter about a convention coup? The convention is a month away, Trump's furiously digging a pit straight to hell, and GOP politicians refuse to even mention his name in public.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:34
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Sanders isn't wrong, but it seems like a really odd time to start banging that drum.Rhesus Pieces posted:So when do we start hearing chatter about a convention coup? The convention is a month away, Trump's furiously digging a pit straight to hell, and GOP politicians refuse to even mention his name in public. I'm wondering how long before Dems winning the House becomes a possibility.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:34
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Meat Recital posted:Sanders isn't wrong, but it seems like a really odd time to start banging that drum. Isn't DWS stepping down as chair of the DNC after this cycle anyway?
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Jun 14, 2016 22:37
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zoux posted:His trend line is real bad though, so that's good. God drat, if Hillary has a Reagen-esque trouncing of Trump, I don't even know how hard I will celebrate on election night.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:39
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WampaLord posted:God drat, if Hillary has a Reagen-esque trouncing of Trump, I don't even know how hard I will celebrate on election night. https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/742833898099515393
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Jun 14, 2016 22:40
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MariusLecter posted:Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders give Trump some talking points. wasn't this supposed to be a speech about the shooting
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Jun 14, 2016 22:40
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Meat Recital posted:Sanders isn't wrong, but it seems like a really odd time to start banging that drum. A long way, but people are talking about it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...3b45_story.html
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Jun 14, 2016 22:41
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Don't stop I'm almost there.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:41
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Fox Ironic posted:Pollster here: Not illegal at all, we do it all the time. It's illegal in some states to autodial to cell phones, but that doesn't stop us. Fact specific, but the TCPA covers pollsters too Caveat: TCPA depends on the type of call and how it's done, so it depends on how the polling company conducts the calls EwokEntourage fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Jun 14, 2016 |
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Jun 14, 2016 22:42
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Rhesus Pieces posted:So when do we start hearing chatter about a convention coup? The convention is a month away, Trump's furiously digging a pit straight to hell, and GOP politicians refuse to even mention his name in public. I just don't think there is a viable strategy and if it did happen the nomination would almost certainly go to Cruz, something the GOPe views almost as bad as Trump. It's pretty much too late, they hosed up and now all they can do is go down with the ship  . The anti-Trump faction still suffers from the same collective action problem they have had this entire time, they all don't want Trump but there's no agreement on who would replace him.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:44
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Meat Recital posted:Sanders isn't wrong, but it seems like a really odd time to start banging that drum. I like a lot of Bernie's policies and all but he doesn't strike me as a terrible skilled politician. Like, isn't this the stuff you should be negotiating privately with Hillary? Make a deal for some policy commitments, a speaker slot at the Convention, and a favorable replacement for DWS or something? No?
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Jun 14, 2016 22:44
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STAC Goat posted:I like a lot of Bernie's policies and all but he doesn't strike me as a terrible skilled politician. He thought he'd have a lot more leverage at this point.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:45
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He thinks he has a lot of leverage at this point. lol White Male Privilege is strong in this one.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:47
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zoux posted:He thought he'd have a lot more leverage at this point. But that ship sailed last week when he was personally on hand to watch the entire party line up behind Hillary and he publicly announced he'd work with her to beat Trump, no? So what the hell, Bernie? What's the plan?
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Jun 14, 2016 22:47
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:Obama on "radical islam" (@ 13:00) Holy poo poo he's so pissed off right now. That little mischievous Trollbama smile betrays him, he's so ready to be done with this poo poo.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:50
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STAC Goat posted:But that ship sailed last week when he was personally on hand to watch the entire party line up behind Hillary and he publicly announced he'd work with her to beat Trump, no? So what the hell, Bernie? What's the plan? I mean, right now he has the entire Democratic establishment pushing him to bring his people into the fold, and his people have been utterly poisoned against HRC, so this is going to be a trickier landing than most. I'm fine with giving him all the latitude he needs. People think that the address he's going to give to his supporters on Thursday is when he'll do it. Also: https://twitter.com/CBSDFW/status/742835254994608128
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Jun 14, 2016 22:51
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MaxxBot posted:I just don't think there is a viable strategy and if it did happen the nomination would almost certainly go to Cruz, something the GOPe views almost as bad as Trump. It's pretty much too late, they hosed up and now all they can do is go down with the ship It should have been Jeb! 
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Jun 14, 2016 22:52
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Oh christ here we go...
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Jun 14, 2016 22:54
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zoux posted:I mean, right now he has the entire Democratic establishment pushing him to bring his people into the fold, and his people have been utterly poisoned against HRC, so this is going to be a trickier landing than most. I'm fine with giving him all the latitude he needs. People think that the address he's going to give to his supporters on Thursday is when he'll do it. Yeah, no, I'm fine with Bernie easing into endorsing Hillary and doing his best to make it feel natural to his supporters and not get an ugly scene. I'm not one of the people who was mad at him for not dropping out already. I also assume he'll do it on Thursday but I'm even fine if he drags it out a bit as long as he stops running against Hillary since the primary is over and doesn't try and pull a coup at the Convention. Just, you're talking to Hillary in like an hour or something. Why take a public shot at DWS/the DNC now?
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Jun 14, 2016 22:55
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STAC Goat posted:But that ship sailed last week when he was personally on hand to watch the entire party line up behind Hillary and he publicly announced he'd work with her to beat Trump, no? So what the hell, Bernie? What's the plan? keep his supporters engaged until the convention and try his best to yank the democratic party left, which was his plan all along i don't understand how people are still clutching their pearls and griping about sanders occasionally saying a thing when: a) hillary is, according to the same people, such a powerful juggernaut of a candidate b) this is exactly what bernie said he would be doing for months now let the old man yell at the cloud and keep his base involved so he can do a really good speech at the convention for hillary
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Jun 14, 2016 22:55
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STAC Goat posted:But that ship sailed last week when he was personally on hand to watch the entire party line up behind Hillary and he publicly announced he'd work with her to beat Trump, no? So what the hell, Bernie? What's the plan? Probably to move the goal posts on the Bernie revolution to always having been about reforming the Democratic Party nominating process, something that's achievable. That way if they get more delegates for states with open primaries or whatever, then bam your donations and volunteering was totally worth it, it worked, we won! Now go vote to elect a Democrat!
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Jun 14, 2016 22:55
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Eh, I'm not mad. You folks are probably right. I don't even like DWS and I doubt it really does anything to hurt Hillary/help Trump. It just seemed like odd timing is all.
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Jun 14, 2016 22:57
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Business Gorillas posted:keep his supporters engaged until the convention and try his best to yank the democratic party left, which was his plan all along But he's giving Trump, the man who has members of his party fleeing questions on his remarks, talking points *shudder*
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Jun 14, 2016 22:59
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Lessail posted:But he's giving Trump, the man who has members of his party fleeing questions on his remarks, talking points *shudder* The horror. 
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Jun 14, 2016 23:01
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Tatum Girlparts posted:wasn't this supposed to be a speech about the shooting On Terra Firma posted:Holy poo poo this owns. This is scathing and the line about how politicians fall under the protection of those who work to fight ISIS, pause "even those who tweet", was awesome.
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Jun 14, 2016 23:01
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Lessail posted:But he's giving Trump, the man who has members of his party fleeing questions on his remarks, talking points *shudder* hillary is either a powerful juggernaut of a candidate that is going to approach reagan/mondale levels of asskicking that will usher in an entire generation of progressive thought or hillary is a candidate that is in such an amount of trouble a grumbling Zaide giving discussion points to an orange racist is a blow to her campaign you can't have it both ways, goons
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Jun 14, 2016 23:02
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