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Dexo posted:Utah still doesn't? If it's going by 2012 number as the base then it may be the last to flip, due to Romney taking the state by a grajillion percent IRL it will flip before Kansas does, but neither are particularly likely at this point. Another month or two of Trump like this though.....
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Jun 15, 2016 04:40
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Gary Johnson might come into play here if Trump keeps being Trump.
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Jun 15, 2016 04:44
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A real problem that may crop up is depressed voter turnout on the GOP side simply because people view him as being a huge loser and not wanting to deal with voting for a lost cause. This is bad news for him but it's apocalyptic for the downticket, especially since that same turnout depression won't be evident on the side that looks to win by a huge margin. That's why I say if this Orlando shooting doesn't reverse his polling trends in a big way, I think the RNC bites the bullet and ousts him at or before the RNC
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Jun 15, 2016 04:47
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Epic High Five posted:A real problem that may crop up is depressed voter turnout on the GOP side simply because people view him as being a huge loser and not wanting to deal with voting for a lost cause. This is bad news for him but it's apocalyptic for the downticket, especially since that same turnout depression won't be evident on the side that looks to win by a huge margin. Best case is that they try and fail and the Republican side is total chaos with the party in continuing rebellion against its nominee after the convention.
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Jun 15, 2016 04:48
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the new uspol anime avatars are on point
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Jun 15, 2016 04:49
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:
Can we confirm he was there? I mean the fact that I don't doubt it sounds realistic is disturbing.
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Jun 15, 2016 04:49
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Sinteres posted:Best case is that they try and fail and the Republican side is total chaos with the party in continuing rebellion against its nominee after the convention. It'll be bad, but people turning out to vote for TRUMP or Mittens is still better for their House/Senate prospects than people just not showing up at all, because people who show up may still vote GOP downticket Unless Trump specifically instructs his people not to Which he would if they ratfucked him this hard Man I really really do not envy Reince right now
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Jun 15, 2016 04:50
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I honestly can't tell what matters anymore. https://twitter.com/politico/status/742925889286098945
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Jun 15, 2016 04:51
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:the new uspol anime avatars are on point I got the best one obv
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Jun 15, 2016 04:51
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Slate Action posted:I honestly can't tell what matters anymore. this is all pretty standard stuff (and nothing really new.) literally nothing is going to come out of this. a judge -- who is not the one conducting the formal inquiry, called it a 'criminal investigation' in passing and politco jumped on it.
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Jun 15, 2016 04:52
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Epic High Five posted:If it's going by 2012 number as the base then it may be the last to flip, due to Romney taking the state by a grajillion percent I doubt Trump will continue to tank this hard all the way to the bank, but it is hard to see where he really goes from here. Even if he were inclined to, and all evidence suggests that he is decidedly not, how hard can he possibly pivot away from the racist fascist insanity that won him this base? Look at his attempts to ingratiate himself with LGBT communities after Orlando while simultaneously pandering to his own base with gun memes and talking about pursuing judges that will overturn the marriage equality ruling. Everything I've read suggests that LGBT folk are being actively repelled by the doublespeak - and Trump's doublespeak is made so much harder for him to hide from than with most politicians because of how obsessively he has dominated and is continuing to try to dominate the news cycles.
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Jun 15, 2016 04:52
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Epic High Five posted:Man I really really do not envy Reince right now Froot Loops and Bailey's for everyone!
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Jun 15, 2016 04:55
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Spiritus Nox posted:I doubt Trump will continue to tank this hard all the way to the bank, but it is hard to see where he really goes from here. Even if he were inclined to, and all evidence suggests that he is decidedly not, how hard can he possibly pivot away from the racist fascist insanity that won him this base? Look at his attempts to ingratiate himself with LGBT communities after Orlando while simultaneously pandering to his own base with gun memes and talking about pursuing judges that will overturn the marriage equality ruling. Everything I've read suggests that LGBT folk are being actively repelled by the doublespeak - and Trump's doublespeak is made so much harder for him to hide from than with most politicians because of how obsessively he has dominated and is continuing to try to dominate the news cycles. Gay people aren't just going to forget about decades of persecution and hatred from the Religious Right and Republican Party. The pivot is just Trump being delusional.
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Jun 15, 2016 04:55
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They have to use the convention to strip trump don't they at this point. loving Senators and people are jumping fences and poo poo to not have to answer questions about him.
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Jun 15, 2016 04:56
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They will not oust him, but they will keep ignoring him until election day.
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Jun 15, 2016 04:57
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Dexo posted:They have to use the convention to strip trump don't they at this point. Republican bigwigs like Ryan having to ignore Trump or pretend they didn't hear questions about him is the first sloshing water sounds heard coming from the bilge. Double digit polling deficits represents the GOP ship beginning to visibly list, 20 degrees to port. Assuming there isn't some actual coup before the conventions, the failure of a convention bump to pull the GOP ticket to even within 5 points, much less even, will represent the engineer standing in knee deep water in the engine room.
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Jun 15, 2016 05:00
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Epic High Five posted:Trump rally first hand in narrative format, thanks Al! for linking this originally: Mother of god.  I was half expecting him to start tweeting that he had just been discovered and thrown to wolves. Those wolves would not be metaphorical.
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Jun 15, 2016 05:00
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Munkeymon posted:Re: that poll that showed Trump at 50% among white men. Well, figure they were a few points low and then white women just about mirror them for 50% approval among whites in general. Now apply that to the 2012 election using http://www.realclearpolitics.com/widgets/2016/turnout_two_party_vote.html: Dat Texas Doe.. 
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Jun 15, 2016 05:00
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Spiritus Nox posted:I doubt Trump will continue to tank this hard all the way to the bank, but it is hard to see where he really goes from here. Even if he were inclined to, and all evidence suggests that he is decidedly not, how hard can he possibly pivot away from the racist fascist insanity that won him this base? Look at his attempts to ingratiate himself with LGBT communities after Orlando while simultaneously pandering to his own base with gun memes and talking about pursuing judges that will overturn the marriage equality ruling. Everything I've read suggests that LGBT folk are being actively repelled by the doublespeak - and Trump's doublespeak is made so much harder for him to hide from than with most politicians because of how obsessively he has dominated and is continuing to try to dominate the news cycles. Even if it's gradual from here - say, 1% net decrease every 2 weeks - that's still a finish line approval rating of 28.6%. I suppose IN THEORY he could say or do something that made him more broadly appealing but at this point, what would that be? He needs the press to pivot and he just took a poo poo in their mouths
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Jun 15, 2016 05:03
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Zwabu posted:Republican bigwigs like Ryan having to ignore Trump or pretend they didn't hear questions about him is the first sloshing water sounds heard coming from the bilge. I think one of the biggest problems for Republican leadership on Trump is that Trump has no actual plan, position, or ideology and they know it. It's hard to comment on what Trump means because what he means is whatever he felt at the time. Trump is extraordinarily honest, I think, because he's completely unscrupulous, emotionally volatile in the extreme, and the only long-term vision he has is to make himself happy - everything else flows from there for whatever it means at the given moment.
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Jun 15, 2016 05:06
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DemeaninDemon posted:Gary Johnson might come into play here if Trump keeps being Trump. This scares me. The Libertarian thing isn't like Ross Perot - they have a downticket, and they're all looney tunes. Bringing out the libertarian vote might cause some state legislatures to turn libertarian and try to convert Arkansas to the gold standard or turn montana back into a territory or something
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Jun 15, 2016 05:07
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^^^ If Montana turned back into a territory, won't they loose 2 senators? ^^^Epic High Five posted:Even if it's gradual from here - say, 1% net decrease every 2 weeks - that's still a finish line approval rating of 28.6%. If there's one thing the press loves more than an outsider/underdog story, it's the complete and utter destruction of a beloved figure in real time while they are constantly running 24 hour news cycles on them. By November Trump will have experience both.
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Jun 15, 2016 05:07
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A Winner is Jew posted:Mother of god. I said in the GOP thread that it reminded me of a dystopian tirade like Nightvale would do, except without any humor and starkly real, and I think that's the best way I've found to describe it
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Jun 15, 2016 05:08
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Ehhh...I still don't buy that they are going to take the nomination from Trump. At this point any damage he does cause will be nothing compared to what happens if they go ahead and pick someone else. Option A means they lose, Option B means flushing the legitimacy of the party with it's base down the toilet.
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Jun 15, 2016 05:18
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Option B also gives me the hugest of boners.
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Jun 15, 2016 05:29
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A Winner is Jew posted:^^^ If Montana turned back into a territory, won't they loose 2 senators? ^^^ Can Trump even be "destroyed"? I mean he can lose the election hard, but somehow I don't see it affecting him. I've been hearing about this guy for my entire life and it seems like he just does his thing and the world bounces off of him sometimes, and he keeps doing it. He is the most unchangeable, one-dimensional person I can think of.
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Jun 15, 2016 05:29
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DemeaninDemon posted:Option B also gives me the hugest of boners. If this is an important factor to you in any national-level decisions then may I implore you to consider voting Robert Morrow in this upcoming election?
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Jun 15, 2016 05:31
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BigRed0427 posted:Ehhh...I still don't buy that they are going to take the nomination from Trump. At this point any damage he does cause will be nothing compared to what happens if they go ahead and pick someone else. gently caress the Base. Those racist assholes will vote republican because they for drat sure aren't gonna vote for Liberals Start actually waging a war to eat into the demographic lead of everyone the dems have among everyone who isn't white. But then again that won't fix anything as the Tea-Party will probably just rise again locally and eventually gently caress everything up. So yeah...I guess they are hosed
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Jun 15, 2016 05:41
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BigRed0427 posted:Ehhh...I still don't buy that they are going to take the nomination from Trump. At this point any damage he does cause will be nothing compared to what happens if they go ahead and pick someone else. The GOP is going to have an exceedingly tough time putting the party back together. At this point they may actually have a better chance of rebuilding by rebuffing Trump. His antics have started to give a lot of republicans buyers remorse, it seems like. Still, when anti-LGBTQ, anti-minority, unabashedly regressive pro-business policies are toxic, how exactly do you rebuild? What are you rebuilding? The GOP has had a platform of racial hatred, labor hostility, and evangelical anti-gay fervor for 30 years and now they can't even ideologically find any common ground between those groups because all of them individually are so extreme they can't even tolerate each other. Like people talking about Cruz running in 2020 - If current trends are anything to go by, by 2020 the demographics will be outright impossible for any republican who tries to run on anything resembling their current platform. Gay marriage will have been a thing for years at that point, and repealing that would be a fantasy. Years of hostility towards minorities will have made several large states basically completely out of play for the GOP, and the shrinking of rural populations (due to lack of opportunity/Brain Drain/Old people dying/Overdoses/Obesity/Hope I didn't miss anything) means that the states that they can still reliably win are going to be worth even less EV than before. They get to unload some of the blame on Trump, but they're gonna run into the same problem they had during the primaries - the things that Trump were saying were the things their voters wanted to hear. What does the platform of a republican in 2020 even look like?
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Jun 15, 2016 05:47
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Munkeymon posted:Re: that poll that showed Trump at 50% among white men. Well, figure they were a few points low and then white women just about mirror them for 50% approval among whites in general. Now apply that to the 2012 election using http://www.realclearpolitics.com/widgets/2016/turnout_two_party_vote.html: The gently caress? Obama got 69.5 million votes in 2008. Hillary Clinton won't get anywhere near 78 million. She'd be lucky to get 65 million.
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Jun 15, 2016 05:51
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Mad Hamish posted:This is actually one of the most horror- and dread-inducing things I've ever read. I feel sick after reading this. Yeah man. It's genuinely terrifying and I kind of hope that guy isn't for real.
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Jun 15, 2016 05:51
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Full Battle Rattle posted:The GOP is going to have an exceedingly tough time putting the party back together. At this point they may actually have a better chance of rebuilding by rebuffing Trump. His antics have started to give a lot of republicans buyers remorse, it seems like. Still, when anti-LGBTQ, anti-minority, unabashedly regressive pro-business policies are toxic, how exactly do you rebuild? What are you rebuilding? The GOP has had a platform of racial hatred, labor hostility, and evangelical anti-gay fervor for 30 years and now they can't even ideologically find any common ground between those groups because all of them individually are so extreme they can't even tolerate each other. https://twitter.com/RobMorroLiberty/status/734205208213889025
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Jun 15, 2016 05:54
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Speaking of horror and dread, Newt Gingrich has hatched a new plan to help Make American Great Again:quote:Newt Gingrich wants new House Un-American Activities Committee http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/14/politics/newt-gingrich-house-un-american-activities-committee/index.html?ofs=fbia
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Jun 15, 2016 05:55
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Full Battle Rattle posted:The GOP is going to have an exceedingly tough time putting the party back together. At this point they may actually have a better chance of rebuilding by rebuffing Drumpf. His antics have started to give a lot of republicans buyers remorse, it seems like. Still, when anti-LGBTQ, anti-minority, unabashedly regressive pro-business policies are toxic, how exactly do you rebuild? What are you rebuilding? The GOP has had a platform of racial hatred, labor hostility, and evangelical anti-gay fervor for 30 years and now they can't even ideologically find any common ground between those groups because all of them individually are so extreme they can't even tolerate each other. But demo wise, aren't southern states with large urban areas (Dallas, Atlanta, Houston) growing? Last time the house was redrawn for population changes some southern states pick up seats?
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Jun 15, 2016 05:59
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Dexo posted:They have to use the convention to strip trump don't they at this point. Trump won too many delegates and oo many people bent the knee in the brief moment he didn't look like a complete dumpster fire. The only out for them at this point results in a riot in Cleveland, and there's still primaries to be held after the convention. If they'd continued fighting Trump all along they might have an out, but at this point it's too little too late. Cruz packed the delegates, but they won't be able to do anything other than cause a bump in the coronation, because the Right Wing media is on the Trump Train and they've been doing their best to convert Republicans to the cause. The rules that come out of the 2016 convention for 2020 on the Republican side are going to be things of wonder though. They tried so hard to stop a Ron Paul and enable a Romney, but only ended up ensuring a Trump. They're really going to have to try and rig something, but they're surrounded by loyal Cruz assholes and rabid Trumpers. Both are factions with a vested interest in the primary returning similarly insane result. Also we may see a state or three go 3rd Party for the first time since '68, which is before most of us' parents even met. 2020 is going to have one hell of a tall order to fill if it wants to top this poo poo. Cigar Aficionado posted:The gently caress? Obama got 69.5 million votes in 2008. Hillary Clinton won't get anywhere near 78 million. She'd be lucky to get 65 million. Population growth, running against Trump, and not being Black mean that there's no way Hillary Clinton is getting less votes than Obama. Obama got almost 66 million votes in 2012. Gyges fucked around with this message at 06:05 on Jun 15, 2016 |
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Jun 15, 2016 05:59
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BigRed0427 posted:But demo wise, aren't southern states with large urban areas (Dallas, Atlanta, Houston) growing? Last time the house was redrawn for population changes some southern states pick up seats? Growing with black and Hispanic people.
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Jun 15, 2016 06:00
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Cigar Aficionado posted:The gently caress? Obama got 69.5 million votes in 2008. Hillary Clinton won't get anywhere near 78 million. She'd be lucky to get 65 million. I do agree, this is very generous. I think Clinton will win, but I will be shocked if she flips Texas.
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Jun 15, 2016 06:00
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Growing with black and Hispanic people. Yeah this. There was a time that Gwinnett County, one of Atlanta's eastern suburbs, was the fastest growing county in the entire country, almost entirely on the back of latino influx.
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Jun 15, 2016 06:02
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Cigar Aficionado posted:The gently caress? Obama got 69.5 million votes in 2008. Hillary Clinton won't get anywhere near 78 million. She'd be lucky to get 65 million.
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Jun 15, 2016 06:05
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Munkeymon posted:Alaska and Kansas flip with those numbers Kansas can potentially flip without those numbers because the people in that state are finally starting to maybe realize "hey the GOP is loving us in to the stone age" and hate Brownback. I hope that Trump suffers an utterly devastating loss and costs the GOP multiple Senate seats they should've won and dozens of House seats. The only thing better than the GOP getting obliterated at the polls in November would be for it to happen against Hilary goddamn Clinton, a woman they'd loathed and attacked for the last 25+ years. BI NOW GAY LATER posted:this is all pretty standard stuff (and nothing really new.) literally nothing is going to come out of this. Doesn't matter, the "HILARY IS GONNA GO DOWN" people are going to be in an extra insufferable frenzy over this. Like if she were to actually face real charges over the email server it'd be unreal. Patreaus knowingly gave classified information to his mistress and was caught lying to the feds about it but only paid a fine. Clinton's emails would have to show her actively plotting treason to be worse than what Patreaus did. Evil Fluffy fucked around with this message at 06:09 on Jun 15, 2016 |
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