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Dandy: keep garbage pos football man CJ Spiller
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Jun 17, 2016 18:52
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hoard all the RBs/WRs burn all TEs and backup QBs e: I could give 10 reasons why Spiller might actually have some semblance of fantasy value for every one reason why I think an Aaron Rodgers owner should roster a back-up QB, let alone Alex Smith tbf all of these reasons would be apocryphal bullshit on both sides but still we're talking about a roster with james goddamn starks and torrey smith here, take the fliers, gently caress the QBs, choas reigns Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Jun 17, 2016 |
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Jun 17, 2016 18:53
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Dandy Kaiser posted:All I'm saying is that Dandy Kaiser posted:Unless it's a 2 QB or superflex league (e: or you're in some crazy 16+ team league), I don't see the point in keeping Smith when you have Rodgers, that's an easy drop for me that I'd make before even thinking about who the other 4 should be. If you're going to carry a backup, you should be trying to get younger anyway. Dandy Kaiser posted:e: For the record, I would cut Smith, Hester, Shorts, Wright, and Kendricks of those players listed well before I'd cut Spiller, Thompson, or NYJ DEF And for the record!! RVProfootballer posted:Agreed on [keeping] Thompson, but I'd drop probably both Kendricks and Wright before NYJ def, I think. I'd hold Spiller over those two as well, but no big loss if you cut him. God that was a dumb as hell argument, started by your dumb comment that I guess you didn't even mean because we were already in agreement, hahah
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Jun 17, 2016 18:56
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I did mean it and I still mean it and If I had Newton/Rodgers/Wilson/Luck, I wouldn't even consider having two QBs on my roster except for streaming a bye replacement, unless I was in a dynasty format and my backup was someone like Winston/Mariota/Bridgewater/Lynch/someone young who has a chance of being something besides (which I want to emphasize is independent of this point and only matters because he's the specific player in question) "I Made Every Travis Kelce Owner Predictably Sad" Alex Smith. A back-up QB over, even the most unlikely of lottery tickets, when you have one of those 4 guys, is foolish at best imo If I were going into a season with Roethlisberger/Brees/Brady/Palmer, I'd definitely want a better QB2 than Alex Smith, but that's another can of worms (e: although in the case of Brady, I'd be just as likely to stream my way through the suspension, depending on how the draft shakes out ahead of me and league size, as I would be to actually go after a QB2) Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 19:07 on Jun 17, 2016 |
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Jun 17, 2016 19:02
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Why is everybody ignoring the fact that someone is still holding Devin Hester in The Year of Our Lord 2016
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Jun 17, 2016 19:14
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Dandy Kaiser posted:I did mean it and I still mean it and If I had Newton/Rodgers/Wilson/Luck, I wouldn't even consider having two QBs on my roster except for streaming a bye replacement, unless I was in a dynasty format and my backup was someone like Winston/Mariota/Bridgewater/Lynch/someone young who has a chance of being something besides (which I want to emphasize is independent of this point and only matters because he's the specific player in question) "I Made Every Travis Kelce Owner Predictably Sad" Alex Smith. A back-up QB over, even the most unlikely of lottery tickets, when you have one of those 4 guys, is foolish at best imo It is a dynasty league, op can almost certainly not stream for poo poo because it's 21 man rosters and (very likely) 10 or more teams, and op has no other QBs besides Rodgers and Smith.
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Jun 17, 2016 19:18
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I'm in a 12-team, 25-man roster keeper league and Cousins, Stafford, Cutler, Taylor, Fitzpatrick, Flacco, and Smith, among other temporarily serviceable starters like  Hoyer and Gabbert were on the wire at least at some point during the season.
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Jun 17, 2016 19:26
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He could stream Bridgewater (home vs. NYG) or maybe even the 49ers QB (home vs. Cowboys) during GB's Week 4 bye and the difference would likely be negligible from Smith. Then he could drop that QB for something useful. Oh God I'm looking at matchups already on June 17th 
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Jun 17, 2016 19:29
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RVProfootballer posted:Yeah, I'm down with that. And this is really kinda splitting hairs. I was not comfortable with OBJ as a 1st round pick last year, but he's definitely top 3 receiver for me now. I think you are missing the point. I am only making one definitive statement. AB84 will regress. I agree that there is no direct correlation between AB84 and ODB. However, If AB84 isn't#1, by process of elimination, somebody else will be. A second year player with historic production seems like a great candidate to me. When you kill the king, somebody has to wear the crown and I am finding ODB very majestic. The point I am making is that I believe with absolute certainty that AB84 is going to see a drop in production. I have not done the math on the average percentage that drop is, but it is a concern. I think there is almost no way he equals or improves and I think to hold that expectation is folly. Even if I turn out to be wrong, I will be comfortable with the choice for the same reason I am OK with not drafting ODB his rookie year. Because it was infinitely more likely he would flame out as a rookie after being injured in training camp than that he'd have a historically good season. Just like it is infinitely more likely AB84 will regress. Frankly, I am surprised how many of you are so confident in regards to his value. I find the prospects much murkier. Vvvvvvv Dandy, the guy is keeping 16 players. That screams dynasty format. 
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Jun 17, 2016 19:31
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Dandy Kaiser posted:I'm in a 12-team, 25-man roster keeper league and Cousins, Stafford, Cutler, Taylor, Fitzpatrick, Flacco, and Smith, among other temporarily serviceable starters like Hmm, maybe I'm off base then. I'm in almost all IDP dynasty leagues with bigger rosters, but looking at a couple of them now, the best QBs are: (1) Keenum, Hoyer, Geno Smith, Foles, etc; (2) all the guys in (1) plus Bradford and Garoppolo (brb, putting in a claim on him); (3) Sanchez, Gabbert, and all the guys in (2); and finally (4), all the guys in (1). Other leagues I'm in are superflex so obviously not relevant.
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Jun 17, 2016 19:32
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It's a dynasty, so I'm assuming that Bridgewater is gone, but as long as it's 14 teams or less, I'm betting it's very unlikely that all of Stafford/Cutler/Flacco/Smith if he does cut him/etc. would be unavailable in the draft or as a UDFA, not to mention any waiver wire hot adds that may surface before week 4. e: unless someone had the foresight to add Garappolo at the end of last year, he's probably out there as well, possibly the same with Osweiler but much less likelyRVProfootballer posted:Hmm, maybe I'm off base then. I'm in almost all IDP dynasty leagues with bigger rosters, but looking at a couple of them now, the best QBs are: (1) Keenum, Hoyer, Geno Smith, Foles, etc; (2) all the guys in (1) plus Bradford and Garoppolo (brb, putting in a claim on him); (3) Sanchez, Gabbert, and all the guys in (2); and finally (4), all the guys in (1). Other leagues I'm in are superflex so obviously not relevant. It certainly doesn't help that we don't know the league size or the other teams' QB situations Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Jun 17, 2016 |
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Jun 17, 2016 19:33
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Sataere posted:The point I am making is that I believe with absolute certainty that AB84 is going to see a drop in production. I have not done the math on the average percentage that drop is, but it is a concern. I think there is almost no way he equals or improves and I think to hold that expectation is folly. I guess I don't understand what reasons you have for being so certain Brown will regress. Here's an excellent reason why he could do better: he played a full quarter of last year with Landry Jones and Michael Vick, and still put up his best year ever (tied #2 all time for single season receptions and #4 for receiving yards). If he has Ben for those 4 games, he breaks the receiving yards and receptions records. I just don't see any evidence to suggest he's on the decline, ya know?
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Jun 17, 2016 19:39
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I see Alex Smith is tearing another thread apart
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Jun 17, 2016 19:41
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RVProfootballer posted:I guess I don't understand what reasons you have for being so certain Brown will regress. Here's an excellent reason why he could do better: he played a full quarter of last year with Landry Jones and Michael Vick, and still put up his best year ever (tied #2 all time for single season receptions and #4 for receiving yards). If he has Ben for those 4 games, he breaks the receiving yards and receptions records. I just don't see any evidence to suggest he's on the decline, ya know? The reason is historical evidence. Top flight production in the NFL never lasts more than three years. Eventually, there is a decline.
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Jun 17, 2016 19:44
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Benne posted:Why is everybody ignoring the fact that someone is still holding Devin Hester in The Year of Our Lord 2016 I wasn't op and was quite dazed when I saw that
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Jun 17, 2016 19:52
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Sataere posted:The reason is historical evidence. Top flight production in the NFL never lasts more than three years. Eventually, there is a decline. This isn't true even just in the recent past and at receiver, plenty of guys have been dominant for more than three years. AJ Green? Calvin Johnson from '08 all the way to arguably '15, if you account for him losing production to injuries? Brandon Marshall? Or are you claiming it's a three consecutive year kinda rule? If you're going to non-receivers, you've got guys like Gronk, Rodgers, Peyton, AP, etc. sourdough fucked around with this message at 20:24 on Jun 17, 2016 |
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Jun 17, 2016 19:58
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This did get me thinking about how I value QBs, and my draft strategies thereof: - QBs that I wouldn't roster any back-up: Luck/Newton/Rodgers/Wilson - QBs that I would draft one of the guys in the 4th tier at a good value if one were there, otherwise just stream for bye/injury/suspension: Brees/Roethlisberger/Palmer/Brady - QBs that I would maybe try to grab one of the guys in the next tier to pair them with, but certainly won't lose sleep if they're my only QB except for a bye week streamer: Eli/Carr/Rivers - QBs that I would probably like to have two of them in this tier and either play match-ups or wait until one rises to the top: Bortles/Taylor/Mariota/Winston/Tannehill/Dalton/Cousins/Romo(would have him in the tier above but I'm afraid he may die on the field)/Fitzpatrick Probably Everyone else is WW fodder imo. If you're in a keeper/dynasty, I'd say that Bridgewater/Osweiler/The Rookies could also be rosterable, but in a re-draft no stop don't As a guy who had both Brady and Rivers last year, let me tell you that it sucks having two good QBs because you never know which one to play (lost the week that the Pats demolished the Bills because the Bills defense scared me when they beat the poo poo out of Luck and we didn't know that The Colts Were Bad Yet) and/or everyone refuses to trade with you and you can't just cut them so you're down a bench spot all season and it's bullshit. Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Jun 17, 2016 |
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Jun 17, 2016 19:59
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I'm rostering tom brady, teddy bridgewater, and tyrod taylor and I ain't even mad
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Jun 17, 2016 20:06
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Azhais posted:I'm rostering tom brady, teddy bridgewater, and tyrod taylor and I ain't even mad Current Dynasty QB Stable: Tom Brady Ben Roethlisberger Cam Newton Derek Carr 
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Jun 17, 2016 20:11
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Sataere posted:The reason is historical evidence. Top flight production in the NFL never lasts more than three years. Eventually, there is a decline. The following two things are both true: - The WR1 is likely to regress, and unlikely to repeat. - The previous WR1 is often the best guess at who is likely to be the next WR1 anyways.
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Jun 17, 2016 20:11
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I've never been in a league where everyone didn't roster at least 2 QBs, and there are always one or two teams rostering three. If you choose to only roster one, and then need another quarterback for any reason, you are stuck with absolute garbage. The theory that you shouldn't roster a second QB if your QB is in the top 7 is only viable if the other owners in your league also adopt that theory. The deeper your bench, the less viable that theory gets, because the more likely it is that most or all of the other teams in your league have rostered at least 2 QBs. Example: in my all-goon dynasty league with 12 teams, at the close of last season, one team had 1 QB, 6 had 2, and 5 had 3. That means 26 quarterbacks were owned. The remaining QBs in the league are all a loooot worse than Alex Smith. In this scenario, nobody should be dropping a QB as good as Smith. (In this specific league, the guy with Smith has him for $13 in a $250-cap, and his other QB is Sam Bradford for $8, so LOL. But the Rodgers owner ($31) also has Wilson ($20) and I don't think he should drop him. Oh, all dollar amounts go up by 10% each year, so those guys will cost a little more to keep.)
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Jun 17, 2016 20:25
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Smith is like the perfect safe floor QB for 15 points a week or whatever in case of bye week or emergency. Speaking of QBs, I just drafted in my first dynasty Superflex league, and I absolutely love the format. Makes for a lot tougher decisions and different strategies in drafting, and makes the QB position pretty interesting. Also saw some pretty interesting draft trends, as the group I drafted with was super youth crazy. For example, I got Matt Forte in round 19, while DeAndre Smelter went a full nine rounds earlier. I like the guy as a prospect, but drat. It's a superflex league where each team can roster two devy players, but that still seems absurd to me.
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Jun 17, 2016 21:06
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Makes me wonder who you picked in rounds 8 through 18 that was better than Forte. A starting, pass-catching RB1 lasting that late is insane.
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Jun 17, 2016 21:15
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I mean OK, Bilal Powell will take some touches. But he could make half his production from 2015 and still be worth a ninth round pick! e. woops dobbel poost
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Jun 17, 2016 21:17
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Why are we doing this T*m Br*dy thing? Is it like saying Voldemort's name or something?
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Jun 17, 2016 21:23
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Suave Fedora posted:Why are we doing this T*m Br*dy thing? Is it like saying Voldemort's name or something? It's because someone decided that word filters were a good idea. Just try talking about Ted "Lost to Trump" Cruz without the nickname.
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Jun 17, 2016 21:25
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Suave Fedora posted:Why are we doing this T*m Br*dy thing? Is it like saying Voldemort's name or something? Quote my post and read the text. Tom Brady Ted Cruz
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Jun 17, 2016 21:28
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RVProfootballer posted:This isn't true even just in the recent past and at receiver, plenty of guys have been dominant for more than three years. AJ Green? Calvin Johnson from '08 all the way to arguably '15, if you account for him losing production to injuries? Brandon Marshall? Or are you claiming it's a three consecutive year kinda rule? I am at work, but hopefully this weekend i can crank out some numbers on what I am seeing. Forever_Peace posted:The following two things are both true: I believe each time he repeats, the likelihood he will repeat again becomes exponentially more unlikely.
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Jun 17, 2016 21:32
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Sataere posted:I am at work, but hopefully this weekend i can crank out some numbers on what I am seeing. The odds of someone repeating three times are long, if you are predicting the future. But if you already have two #1s and they're in the past, the odds of them being #1 in the future are unaffected by the past: they're the same as if you had no past data. E.g., you're invoking the gambler's fallacy.
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Jun 17, 2016 21:39
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Sataere posted:The reason is historical evidence. Top flight production in the NFL never lasts more than three years. Eventually, there is a decline. I would like to see some evidence of this point that you keep making.
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Jun 17, 2016 22:06
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Anderron Shi posted:I need to cut the following team down from 21 players to 16 before the draft: Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB Beckham, Odell NYG WR Evans, Mike TBB WR Bryant, Martavis PIT WR
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Jun 17, 2016 22:43
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB If you don't believe this man here's some help Aaron Rodgers - Getting up there in age and father time will soon catch up Le'Veon Bell - Had a terrible PCL tear and likes to smoke pot Odell Beckham - Temper problems and has a history with hamstring injuries Mike Evans - Has severe butteryitis Martavis Bryant - Has an even worse history of injecting marijuanas
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Jun 17, 2016 22:59
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VietCampo posted:If you don't believe this man here's some help See if you can swap these guys out for the following. You may have to sweeten the pot Aaron Rodgers + 2017 1st - I'm thinking you can get a young upside guy here. I'm thinking Tom Savage would be a nice play in a trade. Le'Veon Bell - Are you familiar with DaJuan Harris? He's got some sweet dreads and if Carlos Hyde and Shaun Draughn go down, cha-ching! Chip Kelly offense baby! Odell Beckham - Cut him outright. His value is gone now that he faces Josh Norman 2x/yr. Mike Evans - Too many WR could be a problem. Try moving him straight up for his teammate and future 1.01 pick, Charles Sims. Martavis Bryant - Here me out here. Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez is seeking a retrial and may just beat this thing. Pulling off this trade will be a killing (allegedly)! Hope this helps!
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Jun 17, 2016 23:56
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Forever_Peace posted:Quote my post and read the text. Tom Brady Ted Cruz Oh but this is fun
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Jun 18, 2016 05:52
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Forever_Peace posted:Quote my post and read the text. Lmao I didn't know about the second one
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Jun 18, 2016 05:56
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Semantics and grammar rear end in a top hat it should be The Zodiac Killer and it would fit better But Whatever My favorite currently is hth
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Jun 18, 2016 06:14
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Leperflesh posted:The odds of someone repeating three times are long, if you are predicting the future. But if you already have two #1s and they're in the past, the odds of them being #1 in the future are unaffected by the past: they're the same as if you had no past data. E.g., you're invoking the gambler's fallacy. My big problem with expecting Brown to repeat his numbers is that his target numbers are ridiculous. 193 targets last year, 181 in 2014. Target numbers are increasing for WRs since this is a new era for passing offenses, but still consistently seeing 180 targets is really loving hard since a number of things have to break right for such a workload to last all season. Prior to 2012, you just didn't see players with these kind of target numbers. And in 2012 where three guys exceeded 190 targets (Calvin, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Marshall), none came close to that mark in 2013. Last year saw three guys exceed 190 targets (Julio had 203 and Hopkins had 192) and I again expect those numbers to go down this year. Drop his targets down to a more reasonable 166 like in 2013 and Brown is still a top 3 receiver, but not the sure thing #1 pick.
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Jun 18, 2016 17:16
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If you slash Brown's targets to 166 for no reason other than you want to, he still has more targets than OBJ did in 2015. Also OBJ ain't getting more targets this year with Shep and their increased use of the TE in the passing game at the end of last season bleeding into this year.
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Jun 18, 2016 17:26
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If anything, I think AB getting closer to 180-190 is more plausible than not this year, due to the Bryant suspension, Heath Miller retiring and the prospect that Roethlisberger stays healthy or healthier than last year.
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Jun 18, 2016 18:03
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Veritek83 posted:If anything, I think AB getting closer to 180-190 is more plausible than not this year, due to the Bryant suspension, Heath Miller retiring and the prospect that Roethlisberger stays healthy or healthier than last year. What if Le'Veon Bell stays healthy and sees another 104 targets like he did in 2014? DWill ain't a slouch in the passing game either so RB targets could be in the 120+ range combined. They only had 73 targets last year so that's one change we can expect if Bell stays upright. What if Big Ben doesn't stay healthy? Dude is in his 30s but still plays a very physical style of football. He's definitely one of the higher injury risks at QB. What if Brown doesn't stay healthy? He's not injury prone, I know, but all it takes is one bad hit. What if the constant double teams leads to a defender falling on his ankle? Or he takes a bad hit to the dome and we have to start worrying about concussions? Or maybe Marvin Lewis takes Vontaze Burfict aside and tells him to sweep the leg? There are plenty of reasons to think Brown's target share of 33% last year is going to go down and I think viewing his situation critically rather than just penciling him as the number one player in June is a worthy intellectual exercise.
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Jun 18, 2016 18:40
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