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Big Ben throws it to the open man Brown gets open a lot. That's my take
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Jun 18, 2016 18:42
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Tiptoes posted:What if Sammie Coates/Markus Wheaton/Ladarius Green aren't a bunch of assholes like everyone assumes? Coates has been talked up a lot by Steelers coaches this offseason and it wouldn't be hard for Green to be an upgrade on Heath Miller. I'm not sure this is a terrible supporting cast. Sure, but I'm much more worried about Beckham and Hopkins seeing a decline in targets due to improved supporting cast than Brown and Julio. If anything, this concern with respect to the top receivers makes Brown an easier first pick for me. Tiptoes posted:What if Big Ben doesn't stay healthy? Dude is in his 30s but still plays a very physical style of football. He's definitely one of the higher injury risks at QB. He played 16 games in 2013 and 2014, has averaged 14.3 games played each season for his career, and has never missed more than 4 in a season. I don't think you're at all right that he's a high injury risk amongst QBs, but if you want to do the same sort of thing for other QBs in the league, I'm happy to be proven wrong. Tiptoes posted:What if Brown doesn't stay healthy? He's not injury prone, I know, but all it takes is one bad hit. What if the constant double teams leads to a defender falling on his ankle? Or he takes a bad hit to the dome and we have to start worrying about concussions? Or maybe Marvin Lewis takes Vontaze Burfict aside and tells him to sweep the leg? How is this at all a specific concern for Brown that you don't also have for the other superstar WRs? Are you saying Brown is more likely to be targeted than Beckham or Julio or Hopkins? Why? Tiptoes posted:There are plenty of reasons to think Brown's target share of 33% last year is going to go down and I think viewing his situation critically rather than just penciling him as the number one player in June is a worthy intellectual exercise. You haven't given any, though. I definitely agree it's a good debate to have, but so far the arguments are either things that apply to all the top WRs, or the argument that it's incredibly hard to repeat as top WR for 3 years. The latter is of course true, but is not an argument against Brown being the most likely WR#1.
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Jun 18, 2016 18:51
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Tiptoes posted:What if Sammie Coates/Markus Wheaton/Ladarius Green aren't a bunch of assholes like everyone assumes? Coates has been talked up a lot by Steelers coaches this offseason and it wouldn't be hard for Green to be an upgrade on Heath Miller. I'm not sure this is a terrible supporting cast. Sure man, "what if." What if Antonio Brown gets hit by a car and has to get Oscar Pistorius blade legs? What if The Steelers have secretly been drugging visiting teams' Gatorade and the whole franchise gets locked out for a season as punishment? What if Bane and the resurgent League of Assassins blow up Heinz Field? A lot of things could happen. I think it's more likely based on a whole host of factors that Antonio Brown will have closer to 185 targets than he will to 166 targets. Of course you can come up with scenarios in which he doesn't. Doesn't actually change the likelihood of it happening.
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Jun 18, 2016 18:52
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Antonio Brown hasn't missed a regular season game since 2012 and his only injury in that time was caused by a dirty headshot. Meanwhile, OBJ had bad hamstrings his rookie year that could pop back up at any moment, while Julio's foot is being held together with duct tape and prayers. What's the injury risk with AB, again? Especially compared to those other two?
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Jun 18, 2016 18:54
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https://twitter.com/PFF/status/743881544784293888?s=09 To stoke flames
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Jun 18, 2016 19:29
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What if Sterling Shepard is decent? What if Will Tye continues to progress, What if Victor Cruz isn't dead, What if Eli gets a torn ACL from being sacked in a weird way? You're arguing a bunch of What if's that could also happen to every other top WR in one way or another. The only difference here is, AB has played with 3rd string QB's for a quarter of a season and still put up ridiculous numbers VietCampo fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Jun 18, 2016 |
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Jun 18, 2016 19:36
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RVProfootballer posted:Sure, but I'm much more worried about Beckham and Hopkins seeing a decline in targets due to improved supporting cast than Brown and Julio. If anything, this concern with respect to the top receivers makes Brown an easier first pick for me. quote:He played 16 games in 2013 and 2014, has averaged 14.3 games played each season for his career, and has never missed more than 4 in a season. I don't think you're at all right that he's a high injury risk amongst QBs, but if you want to do the same sort of thing for other QBs in the league, I'm happy to be proven wrong. quote:How is this at all a specific concern for Brown that you don't also have for the other superstar WRs? Are you saying Brown is more likely to be targeted than Beckham or Julio or Hopkins? Why?
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Jun 18, 2016 19:43
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What if AB kicks another punter in the face and he gets suspended
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Jun 18, 2016 19:45
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What if ODB tries to assault someone for calling his momma fat and gets dunked on and is injured
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Jun 18, 2016 19:48
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Tiptoes posted:Hopkins ain't seeing 190 targets again but I don't know why you have worries about ODB's targets. He was on a 16-game pace of 167 last year, which isn't that high. Shephard takes Randle's targets and the TEs are "who gives a gently caress"-level talents for the most part. ODB sees 165+ targets again easily. For Beckham's targets, I said more worried than I am with Brown, not that I am much worried. Shepard is probably a lot better than Coates and Wheaton, and he's certainly way better than Randle. For Big Ben injury worries, no, I'm not worried, and I gave evidence why. Who gives a poo poo if he plays really physically and takes big hits if he rarely misses time because of it? 34 isn't old for a QB and Ben doesn't have a history of injuries. If he misses 4 games again, which again is the most he's ever missed, then we've seen Brown can have a phenomenal year with only 3/4 of Ben. For workloads, you would have more of a case if this were someone like Megatron, who had given some signs of picking up small niggling injuries. Brown hasn't shown any evidence whatsoever of slowing down or being prone to wear-and-tear small injuries. So no, not at all worried about this with him. As others have said, Beckham is a bigger injury risk than Brown imo (but no, I'm not at all worried about injuries with him either). As for targeting, I mean, we're just going to have to disagree I think. If you really think that is going to make a measurable difference in fantasy scoring, then feel free to consider it. But I just don't, so I won't.
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Jun 18, 2016 19:52
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Tiptoes posted:Hopkins ain't seeing 190 targets again but I don't know why you have worries about ODB's targets. He was on a 16-game pace of 167 last year, which isn't that high. Shephard takes Randle's targets and the TEs are "who gives a gently caress"-level talents for the most part. ODB sees 165+ targets again easily. Shepherd is really drat good and is going to command more targets than Reuben what route am I supposed to run Randle Spoeank posted:What if AB kicks another punter in the face and he gets suspended We riot
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Jun 18, 2016 20:04
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Metapod posted:Shepherd is really drat good and is going to command more targets than Reuben what route am I supposed to run Randle
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Jun 18, 2016 20:23
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What if OBJ catches the Kardashian Kurse (tm)
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Jun 18, 2016 21:15
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Tiptoes posted:I love Sterling Shepard as a prospect and think he has a great spot opposite ODB to offer late round fantasy upside this year but I do wonder if people are expecting too much out of him in year one. Randle had a 57/797/8 line last year. He's a poo poo player but Shepard beating those numbers as a rookie is no guarantee. He could do considerably less than that and still have a productive rookie season. I foresee him getting a lot of targets based purely on knowing routes also Spoeank posted:What if OBJ catches the Kardashian Kurse (tm)
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Jun 18, 2016 21:21
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AJ Green is going to get more targets than God this season
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Jun 18, 2016 21:34
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I feel like people are selling Eli short right now. After all, he did get a 57/797/8 line out of noted garbageman Rueben Randle. Shep will be fine.
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Jun 18, 2016 21:39
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Hi guys. It's time to start stressing out over fake sports
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Jun 18, 2016 22:45
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3 DONG HORSE posted:Hi guys. It's time to start stressing out over fake sports Most people wait until after the 4th to do that.
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Jun 18, 2016 22:49
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3 DONG HORSE posted:Hi guys. It's time to start stressing out over fake sports They're like 10 pages ahead of you
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Jun 18, 2016 22:50
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Azhais posted:They're like 10 pages ahead of you I know, I know. You gotta say something witty if you're late to the party. I want to increase my league's dues to 50 bucks. I hope they go for it. It'd make my inevitable threepeat a lot cooler. I also plan to cull my league from 8 to 4ish but I'm having trouble deciding which ones to drop. They are all different! Not a single duplicate: -14 team, money, 0ppr, 2 kickers (yes, the legend) -10 team, money, 0.5ppr with collective IDP style scoring for D/ST, 3 keepers -goontier, money, where I need to reclaim my spot in Tier A -goon IDP league wherein we really really should switch to ESPN because yahoo =  -12 team, money, 0.5ppr with some bonuses -11 team league with all my scrub friends (might be pay this year) -goon 20 team league -CALBINVALL drat, I am really excited now. e: sorry for forgetting you, calvinball. I switched the "a"s, can you tell? 3 DONG HORSE fucked around with this message at 23:56 on Jun 18, 2016 |
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Jun 18, 2016 23:37
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Hey guys, I'm loving around with the format for BeerSheets and I wanted your input. Specifically I'm trying to reduce the level of cognitive effort needed to make a decision, particularly around ADP. Previously I had players juggle ADP, value, skew, and positional scarcity. The end result was a bit more information than I'd like, with more specificity than necessary in some spots and not enough information in others. So I decided to tweak some things and I would like your input: The biggest change is the removal of the skew column and the replacement of the ADP column with a ranking. Instead of showing the ADP from FFC (which frankly isn't that good at this point), it shows the FantasyPros ranking of a player in the Round.Pick format that makes it easier to judge when a player "should" be taken. I then add some formatting tricks so that a player can glean actual ADP data (also from FantasyPros) from this ranking. It turns out that for most players their ranking is within a round of their ADP. For players who were being taken a round or more before their ranking suggested they should I struck out the text. It's still readable but clearly indicates something. For players who were potential steals (meaning their ADP is at least a round past their ranking) I underlined the value. For players who were even better potential steals (ADP two or more rounds past ranking) I used a double underline. I think it does a good job of providing a general sense of where a player would nominally go while also providing using information about players within a tier. Is this too confusing? Have I done the opposite of what I intended?
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Jun 19, 2016 00:03
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It seems the Positional Scarcity and the Value charts are now the same thing. E.g., every player at Value of 0.499... and down is always PS of 0. What throws me is where they don't quite match: for example, Ryan Mathews is 2.0 value and 17% PS remaining behind him, but Kelvin Benjamin is 2.0 value with only 9% PS remaining behind him. Is that just a function of the number of players, e.g. by setting the baseline at 45 for WRs but 35 for RBs, you're compressing the PS for RBs compared to WRs? Actually, I also think the PS number would be more helpful if it gave that player's specific percentage value, rather than how much is remaining behind them. That took me ages to understand. So for example, LeVeon Bell has a PS of 8%. Gurley has 6%, David Johnson has... 8%? AP has 5%? (Shouldn't David Johnson be above Gurley, if he consumes a larger chunk of positional scarcity?) Maybe you could explain why you picked a specific baseline. It has to be confusing to a first-time user to see that there's only nine quarterbacks with positional scarcity above zero. It implies that there's no reason to take anyone after that point. It's also odd that the baseline for QB is 12, but numbers 11 and 12 have negative value. All that said, I think the sheets are already very useable, once you wrap your brain around what these numbers mean - not just how they're calculated, but what they mean in terms of making choices about drafting.
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Jun 19, 2016 00:20
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Leperflesh posted:It seems the Positional Scarcity and the Value charts are now the same thing. E.g., every player at Value of 0.499... and down is always PS of 0. What throws me is where they don't quite match: for example, Ryan Mathews is 2.0 value and 17% PS remaining behind him, but Kelvin Benjamin is 2.0 value with only 9% PS remaining behind him. Is that just a function of the number of players, e.g. by setting the baseline at 45 for WRs but 35 for RBs, you're compressing the PS for RBs compared to WRs? Value and PS haven't changed. Value is based on the "player-games" method described here. Because this is a 3WR league that's half PPR you'll need a lot more WRs (45) than RBs (35). PS is the percentage of positive value remaining once a player is drafted. It useful to show how depleted a given skill position is. The difference between Mathews and Benjamin is a perfect example. If you're near the end of the 5th and you have to choose between the two, you'll see both have the same projected value. But Benjamin's PS value is lower, meaning there are fewer valuable WRs after him, so in a vacuum you would likely want to draft him over Matthews. The rankings also emphasize that; Benjamin is ranked ahead of Ryan Matthews by a full round. If instead I showed just their specific percentages you wouldn't get that information. Instead you would see that Ryan Matthews has 1.86% of the RB value and Benjamin has 1.54% of the WR value. Both Gurley and Johnson have around 6.6% of the total value. It doesn't show up due to rounding. The reason only 9 QBs have a positive positional scarcity is because I calculate values for each projection individually so you're not going to get a perfect distribution. More importantly it shows that past the tier that ends at Rivers there is a huge swath of QBs who could have starter-quality production and you see a bunch of guys lumped together.
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Jun 19, 2016 00:50
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3 DONG HORSE posted:
You can take the goon out of the tier, but you can't take the tier out of the goon.
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Jun 19, 2016 01:49
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Suave Fedora posted:You can take the goon out of the tier, but you can't take the tier out of the goon. I'm definitely keeping goontier. It's like 2 leagues in 1!!!!! WOW!
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Jun 19, 2016 04:15
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Well one of those tiers is supremely awesome and the other is milk-soaked dogshit, just so that we are clear
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Jun 19, 2016 07:24
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just chiming into say that i am a huge fan of ODC rebranding as 3 dong horse
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Jun 19, 2016 17:15
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How do ya'll feel about Luck in a dynasty, 2QB, non PPR league? The usual premier spot of WRs relative to other positions is eroded a bit due to no PPR, and obviously 2QB pumps up QB values a ton. This time last year, he and Rodgers were the unanimous pick 1 and 2, even in full PPR 2QB leagues. Does Luck get back to that? Do I sell now before Luck gets pounded to dust? My QB3 and 4 are Goff and Kaepernick... and the wire is barren of course. No PPR kinda has me thrown for a loop; is Cooks + 2 early/mid 2017 1st rounders too much, not enough, fair? He and John Brown would be WR3 and WR4, must start 3 and only 3 each week, and bench is absolute poo poo (Torrey Smith is first up!). sourdough fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Jun 20, 2016 |
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Jun 20, 2016 19:28
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RVProfootballer posted:How do ya'll feel about Luck in a dynasty, 2QB, non PPR league? The usual premier spot of WRs relative to other positions is eroded a bit due to no PPR, and obviously 2QB pumps up QB values a ton. This time last year, he and Rodgers were the unanimous pick 1 and 2, even in full PPR 2QB leagues. Does Luck get back to that? From what I've seen, yes. The Superflex/Devy Startup (1 PPR) draft I just completed had the first round play out like this: 1.01 Luck 1.02 OBJ 1.03 Nuk 1.04 Cam 1.05 Wilson 1.06 Rodgers (Me) 1.07 Bell 1.08 Winston 1.09 Carr 1.10 Gronk 1.11 ARob 1.12 Brown As I mentioned in a previous post, there were some super youth oriented people in this draft that led to some crazy value from players falling. The guy on the turn got Brown/Julio back to back...
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Jun 20, 2016 19:51
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Cervixalot posted:From what I've seen, yes. The Superflex/Devy Startup (1 PPR) draft I just completed had the first round play out like this: Nice, good to see some recent draft results. It's rough, because I need to add another good young receiver, but other owner said he couldn't do Cooks + two 2017 1st rounders, and I'm honestly not sure that was asking for enough anyway.
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Jun 20, 2016 19:56
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Cervixalot posted:From what I've seen, yes. The Superflex/Devy Startup (1 PPR) draft I just completed had the first round play out like this: This has to be dynasty right? Even then the Winston/Carr picks baffle me.
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Jun 20, 2016 20:26
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MrSargent posted:This has to be dynasty right? Even then the Winston/Carr picks baffle me. Yes, it's dynasty. The Carr/Winston picks are at least a round too early (if not two) for Superflex IMO, and it's criminal that Julio slipped into the second round. The guys that took Carr/Winston took QBs for the first 4-5 rounds then stacked youth afterwards, so it was specifically a strategic decision to reach as far as I can tell. Quarterroys fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Jun 20, 2016 |
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Jun 20, 2016 20:38
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If any dynasty players want to do some mock drafting, hit me up. I'm running a series of start up mocks on reddit that add new rulesets to each subsequent draft (pick trading, TE premium, points per carry, Superflex, Devy) so people can test out strategies and try out new formats without having to commit to a league. I'm heavily encouraging people to discuss their picks and strategy throughout these drafts, so hopefully there will be some value to be had for observers as well. Shoot me a PM or reply in this thread if you are interested, and I'll get you set up.
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Jun 21, 2016 15:53
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Cervixalot posted:If any dynasty players want to do some mock drafting, hit me up. I'm running a series of start up mocks on reddit that add new rulesets to each subsequent draft (pick trading, TE premium, points per carry, Superflex, Devy) so people can test out strategies and try out new formats without having to commit to a league. If it isn't full of all dynastyff regulars, have replacements ready! I imagine there'll be a decent amount of drop out starting after the first couple mocks.
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Jun 21, 2016 16:00
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I just caught up on the AB84 and OBJ discussion since I was out this weekend and have to beat this horse since my comments were brought up. I think they are both incredibly talented receivers but ignore that and look at this from a pure fantasy perspective. Why I think Antonio Brown has not peaked: -He is 27 years old -He has practically 0 injury history -He is coming off of his best season in which he played 4 games with Michael loving Vick and Landry loving Jones throwing the ball. -He has statistically improved each season the last 4 years One thing that I don't think has been mentioned enough is that PPR makes a huge difference in evaluating who is better. I will admit that in non-ppr, the gap between the two is smaller (even though I would still take Brown). However, when you start introducing in PPR you see Brown steadily pulling away from OBJ. 0PPR AB - 243 OBJ - 216 (89% of Brown's points) 0.5PPR AB - 320.2 OBJ - 271.3 (84.7%) 1PPR AB - 388.2 OBJ - 319.3 (82.3%) Brown is a PPR machine and there is no reason to think that his targets are going to fluctuate much next year. Do I think OBJ could have a better season than last year? Absolutely. But I think you are ignoring the size of the gap between the two last year. Brown could regress while OBJ improves, and Brown could easily still end up ahead of him in points.
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Jun 21, 2016 17:58
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I've got to pick my position in a 10 man draft (last year's winner has their choice). But, this year the first round seems so clusterfucked, I'm thinking maybe picking #3 for the safe option of landing either Antonio Brown, LeVeon, or Adrian Peterson is the way to go? The number 1 and 2 picks go to the person that finished last and the winner of the consolation playoffs. I don't trust almost all of the first round RBs this year. 89 fucked around with this message at 20:25 on Jun 21, 2016 |
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Jun 21, 2016 20:23
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89 posted:I've got to pick my position in a 10 man draft (last year's winner has their choice). Standard Rules? PPR? If it is any PPR, I take the #3 pick and walk away with either AB, Julio, or OBJ and never look back.
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Jun 21, 2016 20:45
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89 posted:I've got to pick my position in a 10 man draft (last year's winner has their choice). I think I'd get that #3 pick if I had to decide immediately. In addition to getting one of the theoretically stud, theoretically no brainer wideouts there's a chance you can get some ridiculous value in the 2nd and 3rd grabbing running backs who have fallen. In the first Slow Draft I had the number one overall pick and scored Antonio Brown, Jamaal Charles, and Doug Martin. And then got LeSean McCoy in the 4th. Also I'm running another slow draft. If you want in PM me your e-mail address. First 11 (plus myself) get in.
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Jun 21, 2016 20:53
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0.5 PPR I am super confident that Bell goes 1 or 2 and leaves me with either Brown or Julio. I just hate picking so late in the 2nd.
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Jun 21, 2016 20:55
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Around this time last year, NFL.com's Matt Harmon posted an in-depth look at a sophomore WR he predicted would break out in 2015 using his 'Reception Perception' methodology of charting the breakdown of a WR's route tree and his success rate against different types of coverage. That WR was Allen Robinson. He just revealed this year's breakout candidate: Tyler Lockett. http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-welcome-the-ascending-tyler-lockett-to-rarified-status.html Expect Lockett's ADP to get a big bump in both redraft and dynasty.
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Jun 21, 2016 20:58
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