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Beetphyxious posted:I raised this the other day and you gave me a grab bag of reasons why it shouldn't matter. I believe that a portion of the odds are determined by the amount of people who bet on each side but it seems to not be very weighted, despite the logic that it should be.
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Jun 19, 2016 13:24
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Recoome posted:I'd like to meet the demographic this ad is supposed to be reaching out to lmao It feels like it's targeted at a caricature of Western Sydney voters, if the posters in this thread were asked to draw said caricature
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Jun 19, 2016 13:27
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Recoome posted:I'd like to meet the demographic this ad is supposed to be reaching out to lmao ~swing voters~
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Jun 19, 2016 13:28
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Anidav posted:I believe that a portion of the odds are determined by the amount of people who bet on each side but it seems to not be very weighted, despite the logic that it should be. I had a quick hunt around for an article I read recently about this and they said novelty markets like this aren't reliable for ~reasons~ I can't remember. So here have this instead. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...528-gp64e9.html quote:But while many experts believe the betting markets are worth watching, they dispute they're any more reliable than the polls.
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Jun 19, 2016 13:30
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Newspoll 50-50 Alp 36, Coalition 41, Green 10 June 16-19 Barnaby ahead in New England 51-49 2PP (Primaries Nat 48, Windsor 36)
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Jun 19, 2016 13:50
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thru an investment property!
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Jun 19, 2016 13:52
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He looks so strange.
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Jun 19, 2016 13:58
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They mussed up the hair of an investment banker, rubbed some dirt on his cheeks and put him in a safety vest.
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Jun 19, 2016 14:08
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Their faux Aussie blokes are always hilarious
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Jun 19, 2016 14:15
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Anidav posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0I0wae57nJ0 This authentic aussie tradie wears a silver chain while he operates a circular saw
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Jun 19, 2016 14:23
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Beetphyxious posted:I had a quick hunt around for an article I read recently about this and they said novelty markets like this aren't reliable for ~reasons~ I can't remember. I used to work as a bookie's clerk and I used to price the novelty markets. Most of them don't hold much money and are used as a gateway to get punters betting on regular sports. Elections however do hold a fair bit on the overall election result. The reason prices skew so much towards the favourite is that people love backing a winner - even when the price is bad. This means more money pours in for the favourite driving its price down and the outsider's price up so the bookie can balance the book. The bookies aren't making educated guesses - they are just reacting to the flow of money. Taking a punt on outsiders is usually a better option than picking a heavily backed favourite. If you think labor is at good odds you should take the bet as you really are just betting against other mugs.
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Jun 19, 2016 14:27
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My humble contribution. https://twitter.com/zpxlng/status/744526720795975680
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Jun 19, 2016 14:50
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The sad thing is the line about letting this mob have a go probably is a carefully researched and calculated line. And it will probably ring true for a lot of uninformed voters.
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Jun 19, 2016 15:04
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AY mates you blokes wanna grab a beer and talk about investment portfolios or are you wankers? ay?
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Jun 19, 2016 15:05
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That Mr. Turnbull seems like a true blue anzac ay fellows. oi you wanna grab more beer and talk about investment properties and economic warfare like the realistic Australians we are or are you fuckwits?
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Jun 19, 2016 15:08
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lol are they even trying? https://twitter.com/sallymcmanus/status/744519195895861248
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Jun 19, 2016 18:33
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wayne curr posted:thru an investment property! Fucken real estate agent in a hi vis vest. How can anyone think this was a good idea?
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Jun 19, 2016 20:11
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freebooter posted:And on the topic of "stick with this mob," I've noticed that over the past few days the ~*~*~The Narrative~*~*~ in the media seems to have settled on "Labor is doing well, but there's not enough dissatisfaction in the populace to vote out a first-term government." Which very much strikes me as the media gallery being hung up on the last election and not properly analysing this one. I've been doing a fair amount of doorknocking / phone banking over the past two months and that's kind of the overall vibe I've picked up tbh. So many people either don't know or don't care what is happening.
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Jun 19, 2016 20:29
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Uh-oh. Hip-pocket election. As in, as long as my hip-pocket's all right, I don't give a poo poo who's in government.
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Jun 19, 2016 20:47
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Birdstrike posted:I've been doing a fair amount of doorknocking / phone banking over the past two months and that's kind of the overall vibe I've picked up tbh. So many people either don't know or don't care what is happening. A lot of people don't care / are sick of it / don't know why we have had so many elections recently
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Jun 19, 2016 21:25
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Snod. posted:A lot of people don't care / are sick of it / don't know why we have had so many elections recently I have heard many times out doorknocking that people can't understand why there's been an election every six months, and why do I have to vote, and why can't they just do what we pay them to do. For clarity, there was a local government election four months ago, and a state one 18 months ago.
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Jun 19, 2016 22:03
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Starshark posted:Uh-oh. Hip-pocket election. As in, as long as my hip-pocket's all right, I don't give a poo poo who's in government. That's every election ever.
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Jun 19, 2016 22:12
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At times like these I wonder what it must be like to be one of the average Australians who apparently have no conception of what happens in politics or the media beyond a perfunctory appreciation, but that just comes home after work, watches whatever the latest renovation or Kardashian show is on tele, smacks their wife around a bit and then goes off to sleep happy and contented. Must be nice not having so much going through one's head.
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Jun 19, 2016 22:26
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Skellybones posted:That's every election ever. Not the Tampa/9-11 election.
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Jun 19, 2016 23:01
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So I don't watch TV and I don't really follow current events but I understand there is an election soon. Is there some sort of website/resource that can bring me up to speed? How does one learn what's going on without having followed it from the start?
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Jun 19, 2016 23:14
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wayne curr posted:thru an investment property! 
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Jun 20, 2016 00:35
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I too am shocked that this actor speaking lines he was given to speak by a political party, is not actually a genuine tradie.
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Jun 20, 2016 00:52
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Zenithe posted:I too am shocked that this actor speaking lines he was given to speak by a political party, is not actually a genuine tradie. When I saw it on TV it sounded overdubbed
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Jun 20, 2016 00:55
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So a few days ago a greens candidate in Tasmania had men come to his house, yell at his teenage daughter, and destroy campaign material out the front of his house. Now the greens candidate in Farrer has had his car broken in to and campaign material destroyed. 
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Jun 20, 2016 01:02
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If the Libs have a Primary Vote of 41 and the ALP 37. Who wins? Both primary votes are in the danger zone. Greens preferences bring the ALP to about 46-7%? Which means they need 4% from others to get past 50%.
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Jun 20, 2016 01:03
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Birdstrike posted:When I saw it on TV it sounded overdubbed I will say that I've never met a tradie who drank coffee from a mug at work. Should be an ice break or energy drink.
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Jun 20, 2016 01:07
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Anidav posted:Both primary votes are in the danger zone. 
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Jun 20, 2016 01:08
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Does anywhere have a good printable lower house/senate ballots? I want to write up my voting plan but the aec doesn't have what I'm after. There was that site for the last election that (or the one before it) that let you practice and print. Is that up for the current election?
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Jun 20, 2016 01:08
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Anidav posted:If the Libs have a Primary Vote of 41 and the ALP 37. Who wins? Both primary votes are in the danger zone. Greens preferences bring the ALP to about 46-7%? Which means they need 4% from others to get past 50%. Maybe Leyonhjelm will support them?
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Jun 20, 2016 01:09
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Zenithe posted:I will say that I've never met a tradie who drank coffee from a mug at work. Should be an ice break or energy drink. Or at least a fuckin thermos
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Jun 20, 2016 01:09
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Jun 20, 2016 01:10
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Beat me to it 
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Jun 20, 2016 01:14
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Anidav posted:If the Libs have a Primary Vote of 41 and the ALP 37. Who wins? Both primary votes are in the danger zone. Welcome to the elephant in the politics room since 2001, but speaking historically it's only become more the ALP's problem, the Libs have always been dependent but are much better at pretending they aren't. The press gallery spend so much time avoiding this fact, it's a feature of their buy-in to the political class.
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Jun 20, 2016 01:20
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Amoeba102 posted:Does anywhere have a good printable lower house/senate ballots? I want to write up my voting plan but the aec doesn't have what I'm after. There was that site for the last election that (or the one before it) that let you practice and print. Is that up for the current election? both senate.io and belowtheline.com are not going to be up for this election. The ABC website by Antony Green is alright though - http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/electorates/
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Jun 20, 2016 01:25
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It's not even that the "tradie" in that ad wasn't an actual tradie, but wasn't even some C grade actor and instead they paid some HR company director to fill the role.
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Jun 20, 2016 01:28
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