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Pluskut Tukker
May 20, 2012

German Constitutional Court: ECB will be permitted to retain ability to rescue the Euro if needed

quote:

Germany’s powerful constitutional court has ruled in favour of the one of the European Central Bank’s most important tools to fight financial crises, in a caveated judgment that will provide significant relief to jittery markets just two days before Britain’s EU referendum. The landmark bond-buying programme – known as Outright Monetary Transactions – was launched at the height of the eurozone’s debt crisis in 2012 and despite having never been used, is widely credited with bringing the currency area back from the brink of collapse, write Mehreen Khan & Claire Jones.

In a final, nuanced ruling issued on Tuesday, the Karlsruhe-based court said should the scope of OMT be limited and other conditions for purchases met, the scheme would “not currently impair the Bundestag’s overall budgetary responsibility” or “‘manifestly’ exceed the competences attributed to the European Central Bank”. After four years of judicial battles, the decision now clears the last remaining stumbling block to the deployment of the policy, under which the central bank can buy bonds of distressed member states.

At the crux of the programme is a pledge to buy short-term government debt to counteract any sharp rise in borrowing costs for debtor states. A group of more than 37,000 German academics, businessmen and politicians had objected to the scheme, arguing it violated German federal law through the illegal monetary financing of eurozone governments. But ahead of the German decision, the European Court of Justice ruled in June last year that OMT was in accordance with EU treaty law. In line with that decision, the German court said should all six of the conditions laid out by the ECJ be met, OMT would not constitute an “ultra vires act” in breach of German federal law.

English-language press release of the Bundesverfassungsgericht if you need a sleeping aid.

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suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

also basically accurate

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

blowfish posted:

also basically accurate

So there are no upsides to leaving the EU at all what so ever?

I could see if the UK adopted the Euro of course they should leave. But they haven't. They seem to be reaping all of the benefits with none of the sacrifice.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

punk rebel ecks posted:

So there are no upsides to leaving the EU at all what so ever?

I could see if the UK adopted the Euro of course they should leave. But they haven't. They seem to be reaping all of the benefits with none of the sacrifice.

Realistically, not really. Mostly because getting rid of the few annoying bits of the EU Britain has to deal with will require also getting rid of all the advantages and the continued access to the common market.

Aside from the blow to the prestige of the EU project, continental Europe can probably shrug off a brexit much more easily than the UK.

got any sevens
Feb 9, 2013

by Cyrano4747
Does england just need 51% of citizens to vote to leave? I would've made it take 60, 67, or 75% when making the EU.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
A sentiment shared by my friends and family and my impression is by major sections of those in general who have an opinion on this is that Europe is sick of UK bellyacking and demands for special treatment. The EU might be broken as poo poo and beholden to unelected technocrats, but it pisses me off to hear brits complaining constantly about some irrelevant bureaucratic bullshit that nobody cares about and being made to pay for the common upkeep of something everybody else is paying for without throwing a hissy fit.

Get used to playing by the common rules or get the gently caress out Britain. You had your Empire and you lost it and now you're just one irrelevant rear end European nation state with neither the prestige nor the power to demand special treatment from the rest of Europe. Or just get out and see how long you fallen empire lasts out there when you actually have to offer something of value in turn if you want to enjoy the kinds of benefits that the EU provided you as a matter of course.

Though I'm sure you'll find some way of blaming it all on Brussels regardless.

lollontee fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Jun 21, 2016

Deltasquid
Apr 10, 2013

awww...
you guys made me ink!


THUNDERDOME

effectual posted:

Does england just need 51% of citizens to vote to leave? I would've made it take 60, 67, or 75% when making the EU.

The EU itself doesn't have any formalities for leaving except "country decides to leave, start the procedure." It's the UK that decided on the 50%+1 vote referendum.

I don't even think it's binding? (I'm not British)

feedmegin
Jul 30, 2008

Deltasquid posted:

The EU itself doesn't have any formalities for leaving except "country decides to leave, start the procedure." It's the UK that decided on the 50%+1 vote referendum.

I don't even think it's binding? (I'm not British)

Parliament is sovereign, so no, it isn't, though I have to imagine there'd be riots in the streets if the government was just like 'lol nope'. Some of the anti-Europe people are really, really fanatical about it.

Bear in mind most of the people voting Leave aren't doing so because they think it's economically beneficial. It's a combination of 'rar hate foreigns telling us what to do' and 'gently caress immigrants'.

Edit: Note, by the way, it's not 'England' that's voting on exit. It's the whole UK, which will get real exciting if Scotland votes Remain (as is likely) and the UK as a whole (read: England) votes Leave.

feedmegin fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Jun 21, 2016

Nilbop
Jun 5, 2004

Looks like someone forgot his hardhat...

Deltasquid posted:

The EU itself doesn't have any formalities for leaving except "country decides to leave, start the procedure." It's the UK that decided on the 50%+1 vote referendum.

I don't even think it's binding? (I'm not British)

It's not binding in the least, but it wouldn't look good for the sitting government to completely ignore it.

Of course then you have pro-Leave pundits thumping their chests and saying it would be political suicide for the Conservative party if they don't immediately initiate the Leave process and that the Conservative party would literally not survive the scandal.

Nilbop fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Jun 21, 2016

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax
If UK votes leave, there will be no apocalypse or war. Nothing much will happen. What's the fuss about?

This whole thing is about political prestige and maintaining a huge supranational bureaucracy nobody really needs :/

Trade unions are good. And enough.

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

Ligur posted:

If UK votes leave, there will be no apocalypse or war. Nothing much will happen. What's the fuss about?

This whole thing is about political prestige and maintaining a huge supranational bureaucracy nobody really needs :/

Trade unions are good. And enough.

Considering like all of the arguments for leaving I've seen have been either a) insane racism or b) blatant misinformation, that's enough for me to reject it off-hand. Pretty much every reasonable argument came to the conclusion of "the benefits of leaving don't really in any way outweigh the downsides"

Plus the last thing the UK needs is more isolationism.

LochNessMonster
Feb 3, 2005

I need about three fitty


Ligur posted:

If UK votes leave, there will be no apocalypse or war. Nothing much will happen. What's the fuss about?

This whole thing is about political prestige and maintaining a huge supranational bureaucracy nobody really needs :/

Trade unions are good. And enough.

It's a really big blow to the prestige of everyone involved in the EU bureaucracy and thus they are pretending it's all doom and gloom if the UK leaves.

Typical fear mongering of elitist bureaucrats. They are so out of touch with reality they people actually believe what they say, no matter what they say.

In reality nothing will happen except that the UK will not have to bail out corrupt/bankrupt southern European countries and thus be laughing when the EU creates the next big financial crisis.

Party Boat
Nov 1, 2007

where did that other dog come from

who is he


LochNessMonster posted:

It's a really big blow to the prestige of everyone involved in the EU bureaucracy and thus they are pretending it's all doom and gloom if the UK leaves.

Typical fear mongering of elitist bureaucrats. They are so out of touch with reality they people actually believe what they say, no matter what they say.

In reality nothing will happen except that the UK will not have to bail out corrupt/bankrupt southern European countries and thus be laughing when the EU creates the next big financial crisis.

We already don't have to do this because we're not part of the eurozone.

Nilbop
Jun 5, 2004

Looks like someone forgot his hardhat...

LochNessMonster posted:

It's a really big blow to the prestige of everyone involved in the EU bureaucracy and thus they are pretending it's all doom and gloom if the UK leaves.

Typical fear mongering of elitist bureaucrats. They are so out of touch with reality they people actually believe what they say, no matter what they say.

In reality nothing will happen except that the UK will not have to bail out corrupt/bankrupt southern European countries and thus be laughing when the EU creates the next big financial crisis.

Tell me more about corrupt Johnny Greek and his lazy, ignorant ways.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

effectual posted:

Does england just need 51% of citizens to vote to leave? I would've made it take 60, 67, or 75% when making the EU.

It's 51% of voters. There's no quorum.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


Economic pros of Brexit:
-Britain is somewhat better insulated against future EU-based economic disasters (maybe?)

Economic cons of Brexit:
-The sudden massive change in the status quo would cause a Britain-based economic disaster

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Didn't Cameron bail out a ton of UK banks back when the crisis was at its worst? Nevermind the fact that London is the world centre for Russian oligarchs to launder their stolen monies into luxury condos.. But of course, that too is on Brussels I'm sure.

Pluskut Tukker
May 20, 2012

YF-23 posted:

Economic pros of Brexit:
-Britain is somewhat better insulated against future EU-based economic disasters (maybe?)

Economic cons of Brexit:
-The sudden massive change in the status quo would cause a Britain-based economic disaster

States normally do most of their trade with their closest neighbours, this won't change too much in case of Brexit except the UK will end up with worse terms. The poor performance of the EU economy is a risk to the UK whether or not it is a part of the EU. Except leaving it will in all likelihood cause a major economic setback, as per the elitist bureaucrats at the IMF, OECD, Bank of England, British Treasury, and most outside academics and think tanks.

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.
Can someone tell me why Greece didn't leave the Euro currency and the EU? Seems odd that they stayed and Britain may not.

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax

Yinlock posted:

Considering like all of the arguments for leaving I've seen have been either a) insane racism or b) blatant misinformation, that's enough for me to reject it off-hand. Pretty much every reasonable argument came to the conclusion of "the benefits of leaving don't really in any way outweigh the downsides"

Plus the last thing the UK needs is more isolationism.

Heh. The argument that not appreciating EU is the same as being a xenophobe or a hitler. That is a well sold one for sure, but doesn't make much sense.

Pluskut Tukker posted:

States normally do most of their trade with their closest neighbours, this won't change too much in case of Brexit except the UK will end up with worse terms. The poor performance of the EU economy is a risk to the UK whether or not it is a part of the EU. Except leaving it will in all likelihood cause a major economic setback, as per the elitist bureaucrats at the IMF, OECD, Bank of England, British Treasury, and most outside academics and think tanks.

Yep, exactly so, but about the bolded part... Why? How? The markets will go :supaburn: for a week or a month but will right themselves. Switzerland and Norway are doing just fine. You can have trade agreements without being in the EU. EFTA works. Germans sell cars to UK, no matter if the UK is in the EU or not. They don't want to gently caress up that business just "out of principle". Look, ya'll who think UK will become an isolated island without EU have been duped. In the world outside of that wierd bubble, commerce still works.

Japan doesn't belong to any similar federation, doesn't take asylum seekers or immigrants, and is not a part of any open borders and trade coalition like EU and so on, here are their major trade partners in 2015:

United States: US$130 billion (19%)
China: $125 billion (18.3%)
South Korea: $50.5 billion (7.4%)
Taiwan: $38.9 billion (5.7%)
Hong Kong: $37.8 billion (5.5%)
Thailand: $31.1 billion (4.5%)
Singapore: $21 billion (3.1%)
Germany: $18.9 billion (2.8%)
Indonesia: $14.7 billion (2.1%)
Australia: $14.2 billion (2.1%)

Doesn't look that isolated to me. They manage huge trade with neighbouring countries without being in the "Asian Union of Something" too.

Come on, that trade is impossible or that isolation will emerge if an EU country decides to leave is bullshit. (That said I'm pretty sure Brexit will not happen, but even if it did, UK would not vanish down a black hole.)

Ligur fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Jun 21, 2016

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


punk rebel ecks posted:

Can someone tell me why Greece didn't leave the Euro currency and the EU? Seems odd that they stayed and Britain may not.

Leaving the Euro would solve some issues, such as widening the toolset available to the Greek government to deal with the economy. It would not fix everything overnight, and it would be a major instant shock to the economy that would last at least a few months since you need to set up physical and organisational infrastructure to switch currencies. Essentially, it would be a giant risk, it is extremely unclear if the hole that Greece would dig itself would be worth the benefits of having a sovereign currency 6 months down the line. Staying in the EU with all its toxic bullshit is the side of caution that the Greek government erred on.

Personally I think it would've been a risk worth taking. More so politically than economically, the EU needs someone to tell it its policies don't loving work, and while the rise of the left in Greece, Portugal and Spain is part of that I don't think it's anywhere near big enough. But I also cannot fault the government for thinking it would come at too high a cost to be worth it.

There's also a difference in the kind of exit we're talking here, so keep that in mind; Britain wants to leave the EU largely because of nationalistic wanking. Greece leaving the Eurozone would be because EU policies are legitimately destroying the country's economy rather than because Brussels wants to regulate all cucumbers to be straight.

e;

Ligur posted:

Yep, exactly so, but about the bolded part... Why? How? The markets will go :supaburn: for a week or a month but will right themselves.

The exit process is estimated to take about two years to complete. There will be economic aftershocks during every part of that process, and for however long it takes for the UK to accommodate the new status quo it will find itself in (and I mean every aspect of the UK economy here, from how individual businesses deal with suppliers and clients, to the gaps and inadequacies the UK legal framework will have to fill in, to the economic/diplomatic agreements it will have to make from its new position as a sovereign market).

YF-23 fucked around with this message at 20:39 on Jun 21, 2016

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

Ligur posted:

Yep, exactly so, but about the bolded part... Why? How? The markets will go :supaburn: for a week or a month but will right themselves. Switzerland and Norway are doing just fine. You can have trade agreements without being in the EU. EFTA works. Germans sell cars to UK, no matter if the UK is in the EU or not. They don't want to gently caress up that business just "out of principle".

I'm not going to pretend to be knowledgeable about economics by any means, but basically every economic expert ever is saying "This, uh, isn't going to go as well as you think it will".

As for isolationism, again this whole deal is coached in a huge immigrant scare. I've seen "white genocide" thrown around unironically more than I can count. When half the strategy revolves around "Filthy Foreigners are going to take Your Jobs and marry Your Neighbors, this is a problem because they're Filthy and Foreign." then I think there might be more than poorly-informed economic motivation at work.

LGD
Sep 25, 2004

YF-23 posted:

The exit process is estimated to take about two years to complete. There will be economic aftershocks during every part of that process, and for however long it takes for the UK to accommodate the new status quo it will find itself in (and I mean every aspect of the UK economy here, from how individual businesses deal with suppliers and clients, to the gaps and inadequacies the UK legal framework will have to fill in, to the economic/diplomatic agreements it will have to make from its new position as a sovereign market).

Also, while most sectors of the economy will recover from the disruption, you do potentially have a longer-term issue with service industries, which typically require a greater degree of harmonization and integration between countries to make substantial exchanges functional. Something like 3/4 of all financial business in the EU-27 is run out of the UK, and even in a scenario where favorable trade and economic deals are quickly and painlessly established between the UK and its current trade partners it would not be surprising to see a substantial portion of that business choose to relocate operations somewhere within the EU over time.

Electronico6
Feb 25, 2011

Ligur posted:

Yep, exactly so, but about the bolded part... Why? How? The markets will go :supaburn: for a week or a month but will right themselves. Switzerland and Norway are doing just fine.


Norway and Switzerland access to the common market is predicated on accepting free movement of people, something that is about to end for Switzerland since their referendum on EU immigrants. Meanwhile Switzerland and Norway, especially Norway, still have to eat pretty much all the same bureaucracy and regulations the EU comes up and they have absolute zero say on this. Norway also pays heavy coin into European Union common funds.

All of this is what Brexit is about, and if the UK takes a Norway style deal, the situation will be exactly the same except they will lose all their special bonus and will have zero say on how straight UK bananas will be, and considering the message of leave is "take back control" BoJo will have a lot to explain when he presents an even worse deal then they had before.

It would also take a better part of a decade for the UK to manage to reestablish trade agreements with all kind of states and entities after, a minimum 2 year process of leaving the EU. And for that it would also rely on the UK having any kind of political stability post-Brexit, considering the governing Tory party is going to blow up regardless of the result, Labour seems to want to have no part in this business, and there being a clear dividing line of opinion regarding the EU within the states of the Kingdom(Mainly Scotland which seems overwhelming Remain), there is no reason to believe that the political class in the UK will manage to establish any kind of meaningful dialog with the EU, USA, and China to talk trade. Also one only needs to look at what kind of clowns the Leave side is being run by, to see that the whole thing would flame out before the year closes.

Regardless it's not in the interest of Germany and France to have the UK leave and then get sweet deals. It will hurt in the short time, and less cars will be sold, but the Germans and the French have much invested in this EU business, and they are going to make the UK pay every single day, until it comes crawling back to the EU, and then the British are going to eat the Euro, no special privileges, all of the Schengen area, and every Polish citizen will get free plane tickets to England for the next 100 years.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Ligur posted:


Japan doesn't belong to any similar federation, doesn't take asylum seekers or immigrants, and is not a part of any open borders and trade coalition like EU and

And how is the present state of Japanese economy (they've been in devaluation death spiral for the past couple of decades in case you weren't aware) of any indication of what is going to happen in the UK? It's a basic law of economics that whenever the environment in which companies do business changes radically, there's going to be major trouble. And leaving a trade league to which half your exports are going is a major loving deal. And since nobody knows what kind of trade relations UK would have with the EU if they leave, investors aren't going to be very interested in investing. Tons of businesses depend on EU trade agreements and when those are thrown into air, we're going to see massive capital flight from the UK to safer investments in the EU and abroad.

So yeah, being outside the EU isn't a big deal for a big economy. Leaving the EU is a whole different can of worms for an economy. Being outside and leaving are different things you know. And when Britain leaves and is left to the mercy of the stock exchanges, they aren't going to be in a very advantageous position for renegotiating all those trade agreements that their whole goddamn economy has adapted to operating under. And retooling the economy to the new circumstances it'll find itself is going to be a major pain. They might pull it off after a decade or a half, but either way there's going to be a bit more going on than "the markets going :supaburn: for a week".

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

Friendly Humour posted:

And how is the present state of Japanese economy (they've been in devaluation death spiral for the past couple of decades in case you weren't aware) of any indication of what is going to happen in the UK?

Japan's economic state has very little to do with the topic at hand. It's been an on going problem since their boom cycle ended 25 years ago or so.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

punk rebel ecks posted:

Can someone tell me why Greece didn't leave the Euro currency and the EU? Seems odd that they stayed and Britain may not.

As far as leaving the Eurozone is concerned, it was heavily debated in Greece, but even the most fanatic EU opponents had to agree that it's the worst possible option.

Greece has no economy to speak of and its state is bankrupt, dysfunctional and also incapable of any serious reform. As soon as they leave the eurozone they would be bankrupt, with no access to the credit market and no incentive to even try any further reform. It would probably be something like Venezuela, which is much worse than what Greece has now. Germany and France don't really care nowadays and would even let them go, if the decided to leave. Greece can't even use Grexit as leverage anymore.

For why they didn't leave the EU: they are a net benefactor of the EU budget and there would be exactly zero advantages to it. Like with Britain, they would have to follow all EU legislation, pay all the fees and accept all the "foreigners" but would lose any say in the EU structure. Is a really bad idea with zero advantages.

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax

Yinlock posted:

I'm not going to pretend to be knowledgeable about economics by any means, but basically every economic expert ever is saying "This, uh, isn't going to go as well as you think it will".

No they are not, there are plentiful of economists saying it doesn't matter or it would be for the better. Unless you only read economy experts who are pro-EU. This argument is otherwise not a real one.

quote:

As for isolationism, again this whole deal is coached in a huge immigrant scare. I've seen "white genocide" thrown around unironically more than I can count. When half the strategy revolves around "Filthy Foreigners are going to take Your Jobs and marry Your Neighbors, this is a problem because they're Filthy and Foreign." then I think there might be more than poorly-informed economic motivation at work.

Who cares, those are poo poo arguments, doesn't mean the rest are as bad. Most of the "who cares about?" EU people I know don't give a drat about a "filthy foreigners" -argument because it doesn't mean anything to them, and it's plain stupid to let one group of morons taint what other people say via some "guilt by association" angle.

Electronico6 posted:

.... there is no reason to believe that the political class in the UK will manage to establish any kind of meaningful dialog with the EU, USA, and China to talk trade. Also one only needs to look at what kind of clowns the Leave side is being run by, to see that the whole thing would flame out before the year closes.

The political class and the business class are not the same thing. The business class doesn't give a poo poo about what the politicians say when dreaming utopias, they will make commerce work anyway to put it very bluntly, unless the political class simply outlaws them from doing so, but UK turning into North Korea will not happen, ever, EU or not.

quote:

Regardless it's not in the interest of Germany and France to have the UK leave and then get sweet deals. It will hurt in the short time, and less cars will be sold, but the Germans and the French have much invested in this EU business, and they are going to make the UK pay every single day, until it comes crawling back to the EU, and then the British are going to eat the Euro, no special privileges, all of the Schengen area, and every Polish citizen will get free plane tickets to England for the next 100 years.

You assume EU will punish UK simply out of spite. Big business says this will not happen, because French and German politicians will not ravage an economy by trying to strangle commerce just so they can be assholes towards the Brits if they leave (which they probably won't).

Friendly Humour posted:

So yeah, being outside the EU isn't a big deal for a big economy. Leaving the EU is a whole different can of worms for an economy. Being outside and leaving are different things you know. And when Britain leaves and is left to the mercy of the stock exchanges, they aren't going to be in a very advantageous position for renegotiating all those trade agreements that their whole goddamn economy has adapted to operating under. And retooling the economy to the new circumstances it'll find itself is going to be a major pain. They might pull it off after a decade or a half, but either way there's going to be a bit more going on than "the markets going :supaburn: for a week".

Perhpaps. The only way to see if this is actually the case would be if we saw a Brexit which we probably wont for the second time. Those who argue against Brexit as an economic disaster seem to assume UK needs EU more than EU needs UK but that isn't true. UK would be fine without. And the other way around. Well, EU would cash less money, and that would annoy Eurocrats.

As for timetables... a decade? A half? Economies adapted to the Euro much faster (months, and meaning such as is possible: many countries should not have been in the € to begin with, but those who did were ok at once), what makes you think leaving the EU (not the same as €, I know) would take a decade? That is BS. Business will be business. UK can be in the EU or not, but everyone should understand, commerce won't stop and is quick to change with new rules as long as it works for everyone, and trading stuff for money out of something you make usually does.

It's pretty crazy to think Germany or whatever would be impotent about creating a selection of new rules with trade in a jiffy with their most lucrative car market in Europe a week or two. This will not take years or decades, EU or not.

As for the rest of the arguments like "gaaaah, this threatens unity", "not supporting EU means u r a xenophobe and a racis'" and "EU is a peace project, rejecting it means World War 3" are fables to scare people and good to see quite a few people in this thread understand this. It's a good piece of psychological propaganda and signaling, nobody really belives Austria will invade Portulgal or whatever if someone leaves EU, or not loving EU means you hate women or whatever, albeit this is one of the tools used. Ok poster Yinlock might belive this.

Ligur fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Jun 21, 2016

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


Ligur posted:

No they are not, there are plentiful of economists saying it doesn't matter or it would be for the better. Unless you only read economy experts who are pro-EU. This argument is otherwise not a real one.

Do you also believe that global warming is a sham because there are plentiful scientists that say it's a sham?

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax

YF-23 posted:

Do you also believe that global warming is a sham because there are plentiful scientists that say it's a sham?

Not at all, still doesn't mean I believe economists who work for the EU who say "gahhh, UK leaving EU will turn into World War 5".

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


Sure, but I think you're way overblowing this into an EU conspiracy to terrorise the British masses. I'm not saying they wouldn't be doing it otherwise, they've shown plenty of that during the Greek referendum. But if you think that British membership in the EU is so minor a thing that exiting won't be a Big Problem, you're vastly underestimating how big a step it would be. Nevermind the objective effects on the British economy, the confusion alone with regards to what is actually happening will linger on for more than just a few months.

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax

YF-23 posted:

Sure, but I think you're way overblowing this into an EU conspiracy to terrorise the British masses. I'm not saying they wouldn't be doing it otherwise, they've shown plenty of that during the Greek referendum. But if you think that British membership in the EU is so minor a thing that exiting won't be a Big Problem, you're vastly underestimating how big a step it would be. Nevermind the objective effects on the British economy, the confusion alone with regards to what is actually happening will linger on for more than just a few months.

I think you would have to admit that saying EU is a "peace project of unity and solidarity and blargh", and anyone leaving endangers us to "war", or that leaving the EU is somehow "xenophobic" or whatever are hyperboles and bullshit.

That hype is not about conspiracies, but bogeymen used to scare people in the politics considering this matter, like it or not.

As for for how big a step it would be, I wouldn't say we know. It has not been tried. Greece shows us it's a disaster not to leave when you are hosed up though. Who can tell if you would be better or not, for real? I can't. It might be a mistake, it might be not. But that it would result in a black hole consuming Europe (which quite a bit like how the European Project fans try to convince everyone) is not true.

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


Ligur posted:

I think you would have to admit that saying EU is a "peace project of unity and solidarity and blargh", and anyone leaving endangers us to "war", or that leaving the EU is somehow "xenophobic" or whatever are hyperboles and bullshit.

That hype is not about conspiracies, but bogeymen used to scare people in the politics considering this matter, like it or not.

As for for how big a step it would be, I wouldn't say we know. It has not been tried. Greece shows us it's a disaster not to leave when you are hosed up though. Who can tell if you would be better or not, for real? I can't. It might be a mistake, it might be not. But that it would result in a black hole consuming Europe (which quite a bit like how the European Project fans try to convince everyone) is not true.

I used conspiracy to mean boogeymen, but sure; the EU is part of post-WW2 mostly peaceful status quo and not the absolute root cause of it. I'm talking more about economics here than that part of leave/stay campaigns. And you say that staying harms you if you're getting hosed, and I agree! But Britain's not getting hosed by the status quo and you'd be colossally out of touch to compare it to Greece in that regard.

As for the political implications, sure I agreed that the EU isn't the end-all-be-all in terms of European peace and friendship, but I also think it would be a huge setback for both of those things if it started falling apart. I don't think Britain leaving would necessarily cause that, but it would set a precedent.

feller
Jul 5, 2006


Ligur posted:

No they are not, there are plentiful of economists saying it doesn't matter or it would be for the better. Unless you only read economy experts who are pro-EU. This argument is otherwise not a real one.


Who cares, those are poo poo arguments, doesn't mean the rest are as bad. Most of the "who cares about?" EU people I know don't give a drat about a "filthy foreigners" -argument because it doesn't mean anything to them, and it's plain stupid to let one group of morons taint what other people say via some "guilt by association" angle.



I'm an ignorant American. Can you tell me what the non-immigration/foreigners arguments are?

Also who are the economists saying leave would be good for Britain? I'd like to see their side.

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

Ligur posted:

No they are not, there are plentiful of economists saying it doesn't matter or it would be for the better. Unless you only read economy experts who are pro-EU. This argument is otherwise not a real one.

I'm pretty sure it's still a real one. I can dismiss yours just as easily by saying that you only read experts who are pro-isolationst, nothing is solved! But there's still a lot of people out there who are much smarter than me - even in this very thread! - who have laid out pretty explicitly how economically dumb a Brexit is.

It just makes no sense rationally, which means the motivation is primarily emotional. And by emotional I mean nationalistic dickheads on the prowl for scapegoats(and behind them, corporations that hiss at the evil "regulations" that tell them they can't make shoes out of children).

EDIT: And normal people who are genuinely misinformed, of course.

Yinlock fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Jun 21, 2016

Deltasquid
Apr 10, 2013

awww...
you guys made me ink!


THUNDERDOME

cool and good posted:

I'm an ignorant American. Can you tell me what the non-immigration/foreigners arguments are?

"Are sovereignty", basically. Instead of having the EU regulate stuff like labour regulations, the British public wants the dubious honour of finishing off the social welfare state themselves. And I guess they care enough about who regulates the size of trash cans and stuff like that? Because clearly the market will work better if every country has its own standards and companies in the EU have to adapt their products or packaging for every country they wish to export to instead of having a common one?

But in the end it all comes down to "We don't want to pay some stuffy grey suits over the pond to tell us what we can or can't do, hear me roar!"

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

That argument would hold more weight if it was just the UK who criticises the EU.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Deltasquid posted:

"Are sovereignty", basically. Instead of having the EU regulate stuff like labour regulations, the British public wants the dubious honour of finishing off the social welfare state themselves.

Don't worry about that. Access to the common market comes automatically with all the EU labor regulations. The annihilation of your social infrastructure is going to proceed in an orderly fashion.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

This whole thing is a shitshow, really. Donald Tusk is right to say the EU needs to take a long, hard look at why it's so unpopular. The only people who actually support it wholeheartedly tend to be rich assholes who happen to also be politicians.

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YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


Tesseraction posted:

That argument would hold more weight if it was just the UK who criticises the EU.

I am vaguely aware that left-brexit arguments are being made and that Labour has its own small share of pro-Brexit folk, but I'm getting not getting the impression these are represented in any true fashion in the Leave campaign's rhetoric. Feel free to post about it though, it is something I'd like to read.

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