Auspol June/Election - hang parliament - The Something Awful Forums

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Auspol June/Election - hang parliament

dr_rat: Jun 4, 2001

Kommando posted:

Muir is out, Fred Nile is in, Lazarus is out, Hanson is in. Hinch is in, Lambie is in. Dutton is in, Abbott is in, Morrison is in, Turnbull is in.

This truly is not the best of all possible worlds.

Muir out Hanson in is probably the worst of it. Someone should call the ACCC as the Australian public sure as hell got ripped off something rotten on that deal. :downsrim:

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:27

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 23:52

Doctor Spaceman: Jul 6, 2010; "Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Lid posted:

Also a timing issue, they called this DD to coincide with the new budget and "capitalise" on Turnbull's popularity otherwise there was a looooong time problem. They were hoping that Shorten was so bad that they'd increase their seat lead.

They could have held a normal election some time in August though, so the DD only brought it forward an extra month (at the cost of a very long campaign and the June session of parliament).

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:27

Sticko: Nov 24, 2007; Outrageous Lumpwad

His poll numbers were slipping fast over the first quarter. He probably thought that calling an early election was his best chance. Was it even possible to have a non dd early election?

So dead pool bets for Turnbull's leadership? 17th for me.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:27

The Before Times: Mar 8, 2014; Once upon a time, I would have thrown you halfway to the moon for a crack like that.

SynthOrange posted:

They're really loving delusional.

ScoMo was in his element on the ABC coverage last night. Utterly in denial.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:27

Lid: Feb 18, 2005; And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

Sticko posted:

His poll numbers were slipping fast over the first quarter. He probably thought that calling an early election was his best chance. Was it even possible to have a non dd early election?

So dead pool bets for Turnbull's leadership? 17th for me.

Nope, DD was the only choice. Before the DD you can looko up the cavalcade of articles predicting the DD.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:28

Amethyst: Mar 28, 2004; I CANNOT HELP BUT MAKE THE DCSS THREAD A FETID SWAMP OF UNFUN POSTING
plz notice me trunk-senpai

Lid posted:

Also a timing issue, they called this DD to coincide with the new budget and "capitalise" on Turnbull's popularity otherwise there was a looooong time problem. They were hoping that Shorten was so bad that they'd increase their seat lead.

Do these master plans ever work out? Every time an Australian politician plans something like this it seems to fall down in a heap.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:29

Lid: Feb 18, 2005; And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...ac44-1467512993

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:30

The Before Times: Mar 8, 2014; Once upon a time, I would have thrown you halfway to the moon for a crack like that.

Sticko posted:

His poll numbers were slipping fast over the first quarter. He probably thought that calling an early election was his best chance. Was it even possible to have a non dd early election?

So dead pool bets for Turnbull's leadership? 17th for me.

He'll be gone by September but it'll be a poisoned chalice. ScoMo and Julie Bishop would not be stupid enough to make the challenge, leaving--and this would be for maximum comedy effect--Tony Abbott.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:30

BogDew: Jun 14, 2006; E:\FILES>quickfli clown.fli

Doctor Spaceman posted:

Because Turnbull isn't as good at politics as he thinks he is.

He has hoisted himself by his own petard. DD's always have resulted in the caller loosing heavily.
Turnbull might have thought that given Labor had 55 seats they could take that risk and loose a few. It was the hope that he'd win an be seen as a man of action so he could consolidate his fracturing power base and possibly return to the "old Malcom". They assumed they'd be able to get back to fixing the polls after the election.

Also my Lib mates are claiming the country will be ruined, some even are contemplating retirement as they reckon nothing will happen that will help their business.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:31

Aesculus: Mar 22, 2013

Spent about 9 hours at two different polling places handing out how to vote cards. Neither had a democracy sausage. :suicide:

At least the after-party was nice. Chatted up an old trot about the lack of ethical consumption under capitalism and Salt/Socialist Alliance/the DSP/SEP.

Going to read up back on the 40 pages of thread backlog now. My original prediction was something something 74 lib 68 lab 2 grn 3 nxt 3 ind. Looks fairly close apart from the NXT and independent seats.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:31

Amethyst: Mar 28, 2004; I CANNOT HELP BUT MAKE THE DCSS THREAD A FETID SWAMP OF UNFUN POSTING
plz notice me trunk-senpai

Lid posted:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...ac44-1467512993

Copy/paste it please.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:33

tithin: Nov 14, 2003; [Grandmaster Tactician]

Mithranderp posted:

He'll be gone by September but it'll be a poisoned chalice. ScoMo and Julie Bishop would not be stupid enough to make the challenge, leaving--and this would be for maximum comedy effect--Tony Abbott.

God if that happens, the next three years will be magic.

Malcolm'd probably quit and go independent just to spite the libs.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:34

Doctor Spaceman: Jul 6, 2010; "Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Lid posted:

Nope, DD was the only choice. Before the DD you can looko up the cavalcade of articles predicting the DD.

He could have called a Reps-only election. This would have been monumentally stupid though.

Green goes through the options in an article from December 2015.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:35

ungulateman: Apr 18, 2012; pretentious fuckwit who isn't half as literate or insightful or clever as he thinks he is

after this clusterfuck of an election i'm pretty sure i deserve a mlp avatar

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:35

Sticko: Nov 24, 2007; Outrageous Lumpwad

Doctor Spaceman posted:

He could have called a Reps-only election. This would have been monumentally stupid though.

Green goes through the options in an article from December 2015.

Monumentally stupid seems to Turbulls style.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:38

The Before Times: Mar 8, 2014; Once upon a time, I would have thrown you halfway to the moon for a crack like that.

tithin posted:

Malcolm'd probably quit and go independent just to spite the libs.

I'm not so sure about that, seeing as MT loves the whole ~business of governing~ more than anything. And I'm not sure his electorate would follow him if he were to go independent. But that would be quite hilarious.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:38

PaletteSwappedNinja: Jun 3, 2008; One Nation, Under God.

The LNP will form a minority government with the support of the independents, NXT and Cory Benardi's crappy new party that he totally insists isn't a thing.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:42

G-Spot Run: Jun 28, 2005

The Nats should take this opportunity to seize the day, split the coalition, and see who makes them a better offer.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:42

Seagull: Oct 9, 2012; give me a chip

PaletteSwappedNinja posted:

The LNP will form a minority government with the support of the independents, NXT and Cory Benardi's crappy new party that he totally insists isn't a thing.

this is like an inverse anidav prediction

so probably true

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:45

Resident Idiot: May 11, 2007; Maxine13; Grimey Drawer

Seriously, though, how does the CDP pick up a Senate seat? I think their vote is highest in NSW, and they look to be well short of a quota on first preferences there (behind PHON) with a little under 3%. I'm pretty sure the AEC isn't doing Senate preference flows at the moment?

Disclaimer: it's not my state, so I might be missing some HTV advice that went on.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:47

Lid: Feb 18, 2005; And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

Antony Green's wizardry in April

quote:

Quota Changes for a Double Dissolution.

A double dissolution election returns 12 Senator per state rather than the usual six per state at a half-Senate election. It lowers the quota for election from 14.3% to 7.7%.

The lower quota means that a double dissolution election produces a more proportional outcome than a half-Senate election. The lower quota makes it easier for minor parties and independents to win election.

However, it is the change in the vote required to elect six Senators in a state that is the problem for the Coalition at a double dissolution election.

At a half-Senate election a party needs 28.6% of the vote to elect two Senators and 42.9% to elect three. A major party polling 40% of the vote would have 2.8 quotas worth of votes and at successive half-Senate elections return three of a state's six Senators, six of 12 Senators over two elections.

At a double dissolution a party needs 30.8% to elect four Senators, 38.5% for five Senators, and a higher 46.2% of the vote to elect six Senators.

A party with 40% of the vote would have 5.2 quotas of votes at a double dissolution, delivering only a certain five seats. The percentage vote that would deliver a party six Senate seats in a state over two elections would only deliver five seats at a double dissolution.

The problem for the Coalition is that it currently holds six Senate seats in three states, New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Based on the results of the last two Federal elections, the Coalition would win only five Senate seats in NSW, would struggle to reach six Queensland, but would have a chance in Western Australia, though more recent polling in the west has been less encouraging for the government.

He underestimated Nick Xenophon, and no one estimated One Nation, but the point is repeated and clear - half quotas CAUSE chaos in senates, they don't fix them.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:49

WhiskeyWhiskers: Oct 14, 2013; "هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

So what's the point of a DD other than to kick out the party dumb enough to call one if it will almost always lead to even more :siren:

SENATE CHAOS :siren:

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:53

Lid: Feb 18, 2005; And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

quote:

Tony Abbott held a sweaty doorstop ruminating about the difficulties for executive government. The man who did more than any other to disrupt the 43rd parliament now describes the difficulties of minority/close parliaments as the �Americanisation� of politics.

Tony Abbott, a man who tried the permanent election presidential style, now claiming three+ party elections are American.

A system with ONLY TWO parties.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:54

Spudd: Nov 27, 2007; Protect children from "Safe Schools" social engineering. Shame!

So I don't understand what's going on... Or is that how everyone feels? This whole fuckin' country is confusing.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:54

WhiskeyWhiskers: Oct 14, 2013; "هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Yes.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:55

Croccers: Jun 15, 2012

Spudd posted:

So I don't understand what's going on... Or is that how everyone feels? This whole fuckin' country is confusing.

Shut up and eat your democracy sausage.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:56

Lid: Feb 18, 2005; And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

So what's the point of a DD other than to kick out the party dumb enough to call one if it will almost always lead to even more SENATE CHAOS ?

They have memories of Malcom Fraser's triumphant 1975 DD.

They tend to forget the one in 1983.

Before this one the last was in 1987 and resulted in 3 new Democrats, a CLP, and a NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT PARTY getting in the senate. It's a roll the dice game that mostly ends up with cats, and even worse is that they are under the delusion it's still a two party system.

Lid fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Jul 3, 2016

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:57

Wheezle: Aug 13, 2007; 420 stop boats erryday

So I'm getting that the takeaway from all this is that death is uncertain.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:57

Lid: Feb 18, 2005; And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

Wheezle posted:

So I'm getting that the takeaway from all this is that death is uncertain.

Closer to Schrodingers Death

# ? Jul 3, 2016 03:59

Gentleman Baller: Oct 13, 2013

Last night, did I hear Scott Morrison say that anyone who filled out one of those enroll to postal vote forms that the LNP sent out got "How to vote Liberal" forms and nothing else? If so sorry guys Wyatt Roy isn't going anywhere any time soon.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:02

Pwnstar: Dec 9, 2007; Who wants some waffles?

What we can take away is that Halal Snack Packs are good as hell.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:02

Doctor Spaceman: Jul 6, 2010; "Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Lid posted:

They have memories of Malcom Fraser's triumphant 1975 DD.

They tend to forget the one in 1983.

Before this one the last was in 1987 and resulted in 3 new Democrats, a CLP, and a NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT PARTY getting in the senate. It's a roll the dice game that mostly ends up with cats, and even worse is that they are under the delusion it's still a two party system.

The CLP is just a Country Liberal, it's just another branch of the does-do-deals-with-minor-parties Coalition.

There was another (new) independent elected then, who went on to be one of the early Greens.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:03

ewe2: Jul 1, 2009

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

So what's the point of a DD other than to kick out the party dumb enough to call one if it will almost always lead to even more SENATE CHAOS ?

The point of this one seems to have been to try and get the numbers in a joint sitting to force through stuff they couldn't get through the Senate otherwise. Har har loving har. But thats what you get from twonks who think that politics is a slot machine where you put BS in and get safe seats out (Tim Wilson is going to learn this the hard way).

1. Turf Malcolm
2. Get some poor sap in
3. ???
4. ScoToad profits!!!

Repeat for ALP and insert dumb platitudes from disconnected journos. Oh and there's an ABCC and a plebiscite to look forward to :smugdon:

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:04

Lid: Feb 18, 2005; And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

Gentleman Baller posted:

Last night, did I hear Scott Morrison say that anyone who filled out one of those enroll to postal vote forms that the LNP sent out got "How to vote Liberal" forms and nothing else? If so sorry guys Wyatt Roy isn't going anywhere any time soon.

Your first mistake was trusting ScoMo.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:05

Gridlocked: Aug 2, 2014; MR. STUPID MORON
WITH AN UGLY FACE
AND A BIG BUTT
AND HIS BUTT SMELLS
AND HE LIKES TO KISS
HIS OWN BUTT
by Roger Hargreaves

Lid posted:

Closer to Schrodingers Death

When you place Death in a ballot box containing a vote cast by a traditionalist who angry enough at the major parties and thinks Family First is right enough to give them their 1st preference, but distrusts big business enough not to 2nd preference the LNP in a glass container that shatters the moment the ballot box is sealed; we find that Death can exist in a situation where it is neither Certain or Shorten but potentially both at the same time. Unknown to those of us watching from the outside until the AEC resumes counting on Tuesday.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:05

WhiskeyWhiskers: Oct 14, 2013; "هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Right, joint sitting. Forgot about that. That seems like it would always be a deal with the devil and probably mean you'd want whatever legislation you're trying to get through actually really important.

Good thing they just wanted to resurrect the ABCC for shits and giggles then.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:06

KennyTheFish: Jan 13, 2004

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

So what's the point of a DD other than to kick out the party dumb enough to call one if it will almost always lead to even more SENATE CHAOS ?

The written point in the constitution, or the political point in 2016?

If they actually cared about the legislation being blocked, then a DD and the joint sitting means numbers in the reps can overcome the deficit in the senate and get it though. you need to win in the reps to pull it off though.

In 2016. Malcolm is bad at politics.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:14

Senor Tron: May 26, 2006

Pwnstar posted:

What we can take away is that Halal Snack Packs are good as hell.

While Hansons reaction was great I'll be damned if I ever not call them an AB.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:21

Schlesische: Jul 4, 2012

ewe2 posted:

Tim Wilson is going to learn this the hard way.

How dare you insult my new Local Member (that I didn't vote for, just by-the-by).

If Tim Wilson survives the next election, he's safe. He's probably only an election cycle away from a Ministry level position, and even then he will have a lot of exposure due to his youthful photogenic-ness and rising star of the liberal party status.
He's pretty much safe until he retires.

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:23

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 23:52

NoNotTheMindProbe: Aug 9, 2010; pony porn was here

Is a Halal Snack Pack just a kebab without the tortilla?

# ? Jul 3, 2016 04:23

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