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Richard Burr won't be in NC at Trump's rally tonight. He was on the long-list of Trump VPs.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:36
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Crows Turn Off posted:Any ideas what caused this change? if the actual state of the race is hillary +3 then both results were within the margin of error
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Jul 5, 2016 22:38
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Crows Turn Off posted:Any ideas what caused this change? I will just assume it's statistical noise and throw it on the pile.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:39
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Crows Turn Off posted:Any ideas what caused this change? Clinton went down a few points from the 24th, probably related to all this indictment news, Trump is still around where he's been for the past few weeks. Though the difference between 44% to 41% and 37% to 40% is pretty hard to interpret.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:39
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zen death robot posted:Downtown St Louis might be a misguided effort At least he's not trying for East St. Louis.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:39
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Thanks for unskewing the polls! I was getting worried
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Jul 5, 2016 22:40
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Crows Turn Off posted:Any ideas what caused this change? Noise. Relax and have a drink or something
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Jul 5, 2016 22:40
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The number of polls that have Trump in the 39-41 range is crazy, it's practically all of them. Hillary's numbers have a much wider range, something like 41-51.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:40
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Tautologicus posted:Thanks for unskewing the polls! I was getting worried you don't understand what unskewing means, huh?
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Jul 5, 2016 22:44
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Crows Turn Off posted:Any ideas what caused this change? I am not judging this poll in any way, but "Morning Consult" sounds like a euphemism for a bowel movement.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:47
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Karl Sharks posted:you don't understand what unskewing means, huh? No i dont, why dont you spend 20 minutes explaining it
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Jul 5, 2016 22:48
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Slate Action posted:The number of polls that have Trump in the 39-41 range is crazy, it's practically all of them. Hillary's numbers have a much wider range, something like 41-51. My own expectation is that 40% is about Trump's ceiling. He will gradually slide downwards from there on to November, as people increasingly get fed up with him and drift away. I think he'll end up somewhere around 35% in the end. I just don't see anyone new jumping on the Trump bandwagon at this point, only jumping off.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:49
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Heres a hint, if youre handwaving a poll away as statistical noise, that assumes that you think its methodologies were flawed. Polls arent done to end up as "statistical noise"
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Jul 5, 2016 22:50
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thethreeman posted:nothing new in the article, but great tactic to go after Jared Kushner. 100% he stays silent, but would be very interesting if he or Ivanka made a statement
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Jul 5, 2016 22:50
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Deteriorata posted:My own expectation is that 40% is about Trump's ceiling. He will gradually slide downwards from there on to November, as people increasingly get fed up with him and drift away. I think he'll end up somewhere around 35% in the end. I notice you caring a whole lot about whos going to vote for trump ITT
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Jul 5, 2016 22:51
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Tautologicus posted:Heres a hint, if youre handwaving a poll away as statistical noise, that assumes that you think its methodologies were flawed. Polls arent done to end up as "statistical noise" Actually it's just recognizing that the numbers haven't shifted more than the margin of error.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:53
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Tautologicus posted:Heres a hint, if youre handwaving a poll away as statistical noise, that assumes that you think its methodologies were flawed. Polls arent done to end up as "statistical noise" heres a hint "throw it on the pile" doesn't mean "throw it away" as you seem to think
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Jul 5, 2016 22:53
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Tautologicus posted:I notice you caring a whole lot about whos going to vote for trump ITT Very observant that you've noticed people discussing the Republican nominee in the Republican thread.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:53
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Epic High Five posted:heres a hint Throw it on the pile... with the other kindling!
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Jul 5, 2016 22:54
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MariusLecter posted:Throw it on the pile... with the other kindling! OH poo poo THAT IS WHAT IT MEANT ALL ALONG
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Jul 5, 2016 22:54
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many apologies friends
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Jul 5, 2016 22:55
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Tautologicus posted:Heres a hint, if youre handwaving a poll away as statistical noise, that assumes that you think its methodologies were flawed. Polls arent done to end up as "statistical noise" you don't understand margin of error either, do you?
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Jul 5, 2016 22:55
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Tautologicus posted:Heres a hint, if youre handwaving a poll away as statistical noise, that assumes that you think its methodologies were flawed. Polls arent done to end up as "statistical noise" A poll can be performed perfectly and still fall outside the margin of error, outliers are actually to be expected. You don't disregard them but you don't assume they're a new normal.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:55
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Deteriorata posted:Very observant that you've noticed people discussing the Republican nominee in the Republican thread. You dont have to vote for him, so why post? (This is the argument you used in the democrat thread against an anti-hillary poster)
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Jul 5, 2016 22:58
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Adar posted:this is much more worrisome than anything else about the Trump campaign itself thus far Yes. DaveWoo posted:Trump is now the nominee of a major party, the "normalization" ship has prety much sailed here And but also yes. Trump, and CNN, are symptoms of the psychology of the Republican base. At worst they are symbionts. This is just another bursting bubble in the boiling pot of racism in American history. Their problem is, just like boiling water, they are expending and eradicating themselves without any knowledge of it or ability to stop it. It's gonna be one hell of a show.
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Jul 5, 2016 22:59
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I love that trump is racist far white guy, the candidate. A true picture of the fnc GOP .
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Jul 5, 2016 23:00
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Slate Action posted:The number of polls that have Trump in the 39-41 range is crazy, it's practically all of them. Hillary's numbers have a much wider range, something like 41-51. Paul Begala was on David Axelrods podcast this weekend, he said his goal for Priorities PAC was giving Trump a ceiling of ~40%. Seems like it's working so far.
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Jul 5, 2016 23:01
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Sai posted:im not gonna check it but no way kushner and ivanka are orthodox, learn your jewish denominations bitch
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Jul 5, 2016 23:01
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Karl Sharks posted:you don't understand margin of error either, do you? It was +/-2 in that recent poll, any other questions for me?
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Jul 5, 2016 23:01
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Sai posted:im not gonna check it but no way kushner and ivanka are orthodox, learn your jewish denominations bitch Yeah they are. Orthodox doesn't necessarily mean Haredi.
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Jul 5, 2016 23:02
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Tautologicus posted:Heres a hint, if youre handwaving a poll away as statistical noise, that assumes that you think its methodologies were flawed. Polls arent done to end up as "statistical noise" No but they are done cheaply and it takes a huge sample size to distinguish between a 1-2 point difference.
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Jul 5, 2016 23:03
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https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/750448084421935105
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Jul 5, 2016 23:03
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Does anyone have any clue how the 20% not indicating a preference for those two will vote.
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Jul 5, 2016 23:04
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If he wasn't such a buffoon this kind of poo poo would be very damaging .
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Jul 5, 2016 23:05
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Tautologicus posted:It was +/-2 in that recent poll, any other questions for me? so you know that means that it is quite possible that there hasn't really been an actual shift in the numbers? so saying this is statistical noise isn't the same thing as tacking on 5 points to a point because of difference in party polled?
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Jul 5, 2016 23:05
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Sai posted:im not gonna check it but no way kushner and ivanka are orthodox, learn your jewish denominations bitch Are you one of those people who thinks Rabbi Lookstein isn't Orthodox?
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Jul 5, 2016 23:06
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euphronius posted:Does anyone have any clue how the 20% not indicating a preference for those two will vote. the poll is of registered voters so given what turnout usually is they probably just won't show up
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Jul 5, 2016 23:07
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https://twitter.com/RosieGray/status/750433159766953984 lol it's a minefield for these trump boys on twitter https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/750445028531642372
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Jul 5, 2016 23:07
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euphronius posted:If he wasn't such a buffoon this kind of poo poo would be very damaging . The smart thing for Trump to do would be to develop some message discipline and talk only about what the actual findings of the FBI investigation suggest about Hillary's trustworthiness. The dumb thing for Trump to do would be to rant about a CONSPIRACY and flail around yelling that the whole system is bullshit because she isn't in prison right now So far he has chosen the latter way.
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Jul 5, 2016 23:08
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I'm loving the Trump charity beat. https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/750429503172841476
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Jul 5, 2016 23:08
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