Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

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Mikey Purp: Sep 30, 2008; I realized it's gotten out of control. I realize I'm out of control.

Since you can start 5 WRs, I would still draft superstar WRs and blue chip prospects early and often. The QB scoring is pretty crazy for a 12 team dynasty league and will create a huge gulf between the top 4-5 QBs and the next 25. Cam, Wilson and Luck would be pretty much God-mode, but I'd also consider guys like Carr, Mariota, and Winston in the early rounds too. So basically, your instinct seems pretty spot on. With your first pick try to grab OBJ, Julio, AB84, Nuk, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans so on and so forth and if you can't then look for Cam, Luck, or Wilson. Stick with drafting best available WR/QB for the first half of the draft and skew your rankings towards younger guys and dual threat QBs.

Use your later rounds on change of pace backs and second string guys in RB committees who could see increased workload as a result of injury. Some names off the top of my head and in no particular order - Jerrick McKinnon, Charles Sims, Theo Riddick, Duke Johnson/Isaiah Crowell, Derrick Henry, Tevin Coleman, Buck Allen, CJ Prosise...

# ? Jul 14, 2016 16:09

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:19

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Amergin posted:

So... how the hell do I draft for this?

Kinda curious about my intuition now. Where did Hill rank amongst RBs? 12-15ish?

# ? Jul 14, 2016 17:03

Amergin: Jan 29, 2013; THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

RVProfootballer posted:

Kinda curious about my intuition now. Where did Hill rank amongst RBs? 12-15ish?

Good guess! He was RB14, almost completely tied exactly with McFadden. There's a cluster there with Murray, Ingram, McFadden and Hill around 120-125 points for the season.

# ? Jul 14, 2016 18:48

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

I'm having a hard time ranking Jeremy Hill right now. He was great in 2014 and kinda garbage last year, but still had 11 touchdowns. The running game lost Hue Jackson, but at the same time Gio has decisively proven that he's a COP flex back at best.

The volume and goal line touches should be there, but which version of Hill will show up? I'm legitimately torn.

# ? Jul 14, 2016 21:41

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

Benne posted:

I'm having a hard time ranking Jeremy Hill right now. He was great in 2014 and kinda garbage last year, but still had 11 touchdowns. The running game lost Hue Jackson, but at the same time Gio has decisively proven that he's a COP flex back at best.

The volume and goal line touches should be there, but which version of Hill will show up? I'm legitimately torn.

There were multiple games where Bernard either out-snapped or was fairly even with Hill, even after Dalton got hurt and they were trying to hide McCarron.

He seems like the type that you would be unhappy if he's your RB2 but you would probably be OK with him being your RB3/Flex. And he takes a heavy downgrade in PPR since he catches no passes

# ? Jul 15, 2016 01:45

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Benne posted:

I'm having a hard time ranking Jeremy Hill right now. He was great in 2014 and kinda garbage last year, but still had 11 touchdowns. The running game lost Hue Jackson, but at the same time Gio has decisively proven that he's a COP flex back at best.

The volume and goal line touches should be there, but which version of Hill will show up? I'm legitimately torn.

I like Hill if I'm going BPA for the first four or five rounds and then need to grab like four RBs in a row and hope a couple pan out. The volume and goal line touches should be there and at least he's not recovering from an injury and we're wondering what he'll look like after. With plenty of film to study, coaches should be able to point out to him what he was doing wrong in 2015 and what he was doing right in 2014 and work from there. So I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope he'll bounce back closer to 2014 levels. I do believe the Bengals will favor the run like they did in 2014, given the hits they've taken to the passing game.

Frank Gore is probably a safer pick in the same range while carrying a similar upside but I'd likely take him over the Latavius Murray/Matt Jones/Jay Ajayi/Jeremy Langford tier.

# ? Jul 15, 2016 03:46

Teemu Pokemon: Jun 19, 2004; To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

Until Josh Robinson takes over that is

# ? Jul 15, 2016 03:58

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Dandy Kaiser posted:

Until Josh ~~Robinson~~Ferguson takes over that is

# ? Jul 15, 2016 04:11

Teemu Pokemon: Jun 19, 2004; To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

That's the one, too many joshes

# ? Jul 15, 2016 05:09

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I wish it could be Zurlon Tipton but he went back to his home planet

# ? Jul 15, 2016 05:57

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

He got fat and now he's suspended. :rip:

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/754013864157548545

# ? Jul 15, 2016 19:06

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

From a month ago

Forever_Peace posted:

Kerwynn Williams and Mike Gillislee keep popping up in various analyses I'm doing for ground control as possible "good runners". Both look to be pretty buried in depth charts, but are going to be free agents soon. What can folks tell me about them? Anybody watch them in college?

Also, I'm starting to not trust Matt Jones. Which is weird, because I liked his tape last year. Might be possible that his tape is better than his production. He goes down kicking and screaming, but still goes down nonetheless.

Mike Gillislee update: Karlos Williams is Fat and Suspended, and rookie Jonathan Williams got arrested for drunk driving yesterday.

My little Ground Control sleeper is now #2 on the depth chart with the team that had more rushing yards than any other team in the league last year.

edit: oh, and McCoy has a "minor ankle issue", so Gillislee could be getting first-team reps in camp and preseason.

Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Jul 15, 2016

# ? Jul 15, 2016 19:12

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Forever_Peace posted:

From a month ago

Mike Gillislee update: Karlos Williams is Fat and Suspended, and rookie Jonathan Williams got arrested for drunk driving yesterday.

My little Ground Control sleeper is now #2 on the depth chart with the team that had more rushing yards than any other team in the league last year.

edit: oh, and McCoy has a "minor ankle issue", so Gillislee could be getting first-team reps in camp and preseason.

That 24 carries for 28 yards against NYJ is gross though, and that's half his sample size. Is there really enough to think Gillislee is anything useful to us? Did he compare favorably to Karlos Williams or McCoy in games where he and they got carries?

# ? Jul 15, 2016 20:07

Azhais: Feb 5, 2007; Switchblade Switcharoo

Benne posted:

He got fat and now he's suspended.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/754013864157548545

Hey hey hey, it's faaaat Karlos

# ? Jul 15, 2016 21:31

Professor Moriarty: May 16, 2007; strong vs. Earth attacks

Benne posted:

He got fat and now he's suspended.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/754013864157548545

BRING OUT THE GIMP

...and sign Arian Foster

# ? Jul 16, 2016 00:39

Metapod: Mar 18, 2012

Who is shady's backup now?

# ? Jul 16, 2016 06:05

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Well Jonathan Williams, the RB they drafted, got popped for DWI. Not sure if that has implications this season.

Backup after that is Gillislee I think?

# ? Jul 16, 2016 06:43

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Honestly it's too soon to answer that question. It could still be Fat Karlos (4 games isn't that much and it'll give extra time to get into shape) or JWill (he could miss 1-2 games max). Gillislee seems JAGgy

# ? Jul 16, 2016 07:09

Papes: Apr 13, 2010; There's always something at the bottom of the bag.

I know mfl offers the ability to play 2 games a week, one against a h2h opponent and another against the league median points for that week.

Does anyone know of another site where you can setup a league like that?

# ? Jul 16, 2016 16:15

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

MrSargent posted:

Well Jonathan Williams, the RB they drafted, got popped for DWI. Not sure if that has implications this season.

Backup after that is Gillislee I think?

Williams will get a 2 game suspension after he's convicted, but if his legal rep pushes that conviction down the line, Williams could play for a while. He should be a full participant in training camp whereas Karlos will still be trying to lose weight most likely. If he has a strong camp, it's probably his job.

# ? Jul 16, 2016 19:41

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

BeerSheets are up!

# ? Jul 17, 2016 01:06

gtkor: Feb 21, 2011

So I have the 4th pick in a league where we can keep two players, 0 ppr/1 qb, 6 pts QB TDs but otherwise mostly standard. I have a pretty strong feeling, AB, AP , and Bell will be the first 3 picks. OBJ, Julio, Hopkins (and likely Green) all will be kept. I have Gurley as a keeper already. Assuming I miss out on the top WRs and those RBs, I'd assume I have a shot at Zeke, Gronk or Aaron Rodgers (Cam will be kept). My WR that I'll have to keep is Allen Robinson. I feel like I have 3 doors here and I get to pick one position of strength. Just go with Zeke?

Also, Thanks Beer4TheBeerGod, you are the best.

# ? Jul 17, 2016 05:27

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

Don't draft Zeke over Gronk

# ? Jul 17, 2016 05:34

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I don't want Zeke, Gronk or Rodgers there but of those 3 I'd say Gronk.

I would get David Johnson first though from who seems to be available.

# ? Jul 17, 2016 05:43

jabro: Mar 25, 2003; July Mock Draft 2014

1st PLACE
RUNNER-UP
got the knowshon

I do not see how you would not want Rodgers in a 6 pt PA TD keeper league. I would take him first him first overall if he wasn't kept.

# ? Jul 17, 2016 05:47

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Because 6 pt per TD leagues inflates the values of all QBs.

# ? Jul 17, 2016 06:25

gtkor: Feb 21, 2011

Spoeank posted:

I don't want Zeke, Gronk or Rodgers there but of those 3 I'd say Gronk.

I would get David Johnson first though from who seems to be available.

David Johnson will also be kept.

# ? Jul 17, 2016 07:12

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/4tcogu/beersheets_20160717_i_screwed_something_up_edition/

Whoops. Previous edition had 0.25 points per carry.

# ? Jul 18, 2016 02:38

Veritek83: Jul 7, 2008; The Irish can't drink. What you always have to remember with the Irish is they get mean. Virtually every Irish I've known gets mean when he drinks.

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/4tcogu/beersheets_20160717_i_screwed_something_up_edition/

Whoops. Previous edition had 0.25 points per carry.

Are you playing in the Scott Fish Bowl?

# ? Jul 18, 2016 02:58

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

Arian Foster is working out with the Dolphins this week and it's basically an open secret that they'll sign him if his Achilles checks out. So I hope you don't overpay for Jay Ajayi quite yet.

# ? Jul 18, 2016 03:09

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Benne posted:

Arian Foster is working out with the Dolphins this week and it's basically an open secret that they'll sign him if his Achilles checks out. So I hope you don't overpay for Jay Ajayi quite yet.

Best news for anyone stashing Foster in dynasty. If Miami keeps to limiting workload like they did with Miller, Foster might actually be able to stay healthy for more than half a season.

# ? Jul 18, 2016 03:12

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Veritek83 posted:

Are you playing in the Scott Fish Bowl?

I wish. Someone else was and asked for a sheet.

# ? Jul 18, 2016 04:34

Amergin: Jan 29, 2013; THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

Amergin posted:

I've just signed up to a new startup league - 2 QB, 0.5 PPR, 2 RB/3 WR/1 TE/2 flex, 12 teams.
...
So... how the hell do I draft for this?

Todd Gurley was picked at 1.01, Julio at 1.02 :psyduck:

# ? Jul 18, 2016 15:49

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Amergin posted:

Todd Gurley was picked at 1.01, Julio at 1.02

You draft QBs early and often. 2QB + Dynasty = LOL SCARCITY

# ? Jul 18, 2016 16:07

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Beer I'm sad you're not using our "pooled variance" tier calculations anymore. Why the switch back to "only the top-of-the-tier variance matter"?

# ? Jul 18, 2016 16:42

Benne: Sep 2, 2011; STOP DOING HEROIN

And there it is

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/755133706004725760

# ? Jul 18, 2016 21:18

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Such a Dolphins move.

I don't know what I mean by that but I'm sure you do.

# ? Jul 19, 2016 01:09

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Forever_Peace posted:

Beer I'm sad you're not using our "pooled variance" tier calculations anymore. Why the switch back to "only the top-of-the-tier variance matter"?

I think I screwed that up, because I do recall pooled variance being superior. Remind me how we approached that again? I think I might have copied stuff over from an older sheet.

# ? Jul 19, 2016 01:14

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Maybe the Dolphins never giving an RB over 15 carries a game will work in Foster's favor? I have to think this boosts his draft value a bit considering Ajayi is the next best RB on the roster.

# ? Jul 19, 2016 01:55

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:19

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Think I'll pass on Arian Foster on the Dolphins. With Foster coming off an Achilles injury, Ajayi probably offers more as a rusher at this point. Even in PPR, my initial read is low-end RB2/RB3 unless him and Tannehill click in the red zone (I doubt it).

If Ajayi's ADP plummets enough though, I may be inclined to take a couple swings at him. May not have great week 1 value but if he's a Foster injury away from a three-down role, that could pay off. Couldn't stomach his current ADP but maybe this'll make him a bargain.

# ? Jul 19, 2016 03:00

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

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