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Boner Slaem posted:Britain will literally not survive if the EU refuses to trade with it. This is the kind of alarmist rubbish these threads could really do without. The insane 'sky is falling' rhetoric is really tiresome.
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Jul 15, 2016 11:36
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It's true though.
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Jul 15, 2016 12:26
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sassassin posted:This is the kind of alarmist rubbish these threads could really do without. The insane 'sky is falling' rhetoric is really tiresome.  Versus your passive, almost ignorant, understanding of events at hand?
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Jul 15, 2016 12:28
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Ran Mad Dog posted:It's true though. It's not though. edit: I mean, I read that post as "if the EU refuses to trade with the UK on special terms", i.e. the UK goes back to WTO trade standards. That's a net loss, but not the end of the world. There's no reason the EU would refuse to trade with the UK outright, that's nonsense.
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Jul 15, 2016 12:28
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CommieGIR posted:Versus your passive, almost ignorant, understanding of events at hand? Rude, but yes. This isn't the apocalypse, but a number of people around here have nonetheless seemed to have given up hope, sounding borderline suicidal and/or haven't stopped drinking since the vote. Britain will not literally cease to function as the result of an EU exit.
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Jul 15, 2016 12:37
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Britain will be universally worse off after the EU exit though, which is the whole problem. The UK is committing itself to a disastrous decision on the basis of a non binding decision, which is itself based on a skewed, wrong perception of how democracy works, since precisely one of the reasons why there is a parliament in a parliamentary democracy is to avoid the tyranny of the majority.
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Jul 15, 2016 13:00
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I took "not survive" to mean "not exist in its current form" e.g. "Scotland will leave". Which is plausible.
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Jul 15, 2016 13:22
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Angepain posted:I took "not survive" to mean "not exist in its current form" e.g. "Scotland will leave". Which is plausible. Then why specify trade, since I don't think it's trade deal terms that are really at issue there.
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Jul 15, 2016 13:25
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Disinterested posted:Then why specify trade, since I don't think it's trade deal terms that are really at issue there. In a broader sense they're still a contributory factor: the a great deal of Scottish Independence participants voted No to prevent an economic catastrophe very similar to the one they've now been dragged into.
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Jul 15, 2016 13:28
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sassassin posted:We also export a significant amount of food to the EU (more than 70% of all our food exports). That figure means the EU trade is important to the UK. It doesn't mean the UK is important to the EU. The UK isn't 70% of EU food imports.
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Jul 15, 2016 13:38
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Playing a bit of devil's advocate here, the one scenario where I see the UK doing better under Leave is if there's a total political and economic collapse of the EU and the eurozone in the next decade. It could be migrants, internal strife, economic depressions, armed struggle, whatever. I mean things would still be really lovely, but maybe less lovely than if Remain had won because you would have a head start in establishing your own trade deals, policy, etc.
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Jul 15, 2016 13:47
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Soooo.... Hammond says 6+ years to get decent deals going, Malmström says no trade negotiations are allowed for Britain while they are still EU members (i.e. before the Article-50-period of two years is over) since EU members are not allowed to negotiate their own trade deals outside the bloc, while Davis says 12-24 months for finished trade deals with the US & China while he wants to wait at least half a year with triggering Article 50. I wonder who might be talking out of his arse here.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:08
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Could the EU prevent a Brexit-bound UK from agreeing trade deals with countries outside the EU? Doesn't seem likley.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:11
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Pissflaps posted:Could the EU prevent a Brexit-bound UK from agreeing trade deals with countries outside the EU? Doesn't seem likley. That's not the point, and completely ignores who their actual major importers are.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:12
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Hollow Talk posted:Malmström says no trade negotiations are allowed for Britain while they are still EU members Do you have a source? I'm really sceptical about that because article 50 explicitly provides 2 years to negotiate the exit deal between EU and Britain, as soon as it's triggered.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:16
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Pissflaps posted:Could the EU prevent a Brexit-bound UK from agreeing trade deals with countries outside the EU? Doesn't seem likley. That's what the European courts are for. But the UK only has about 20 trade negotiators on staff, so all this talk about Britain being able to to negotiate separate trade deal with outside countries before concluding the negotiations is moot anyway: it just doesn't have the manpower.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:17
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Pluskut Tukker posted:That's what the European courts are for. ...for the EU to enforce treaty obligations? I don't think that's true.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:19
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waitwhatno posted:Do you have a source? I'm really sceptical about that because article 50 explicitly provides 2 years to negotiate the exit deal between EU and Britain, as soon as it's triggered. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36684876 http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36682735 http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222 Also, this brief contains a lot of "should" and "could", so this depends a lot on how the EU wants to play this: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/577971/EPRS_BRI(2016)577971_EN.pdf edit: Also, the exit deal is not the same as a deal for future trade or any other agreements, but in itself only governs the withdrawal itself. Hollow Talk fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Jul 15, 2016 |
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Jul 15, 2016 14:25
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Pissflaps posted:...for the EU to enforce treaty obligations? I don't think that's true. Article 258, Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union: quote:Article 258
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Jul 15, 2016 14:29
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Pluskut Tukker posted:Article 258, Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union: I stand corrected. Still won't happen.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:31
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Pissflaps posted:I stand corrected. Making sure that EU law is observed is literally the European Commission's job, and they sue member states for failing to do so on a very regular basis. So yes, the CJEU can absolutely get involved. If the UK were to try and negotiate with anyone else you better believe that there will be legal action. If it isn't brought up by one of the other member states, it may be by some industry group that competes with British business. I could in fact contact the Commission myself to file a complaint if I were to hear about the UK negotiating externally by itself.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:37
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I find the idea that the EU would attempt to penalise the UK for negotiating outside of the EU, while negotiating to leave the EU, unlikely. Though it might have a consequence for Brexit negotiations.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:40
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Pissflaps posted:...for the EU to enforce treaty obligations? I don't think that's true. It might be quite difficult to formulate convincing answers to questions like that.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:45
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It's absolutely insane that no one on the British side did any research on this stuff or made any preparations by asking for expert legal opinions beforehand.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:53
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waitwhatno posted:It's absolutely insane that no one on the British side did any research on this stuff or made any preparations by asking for expert legal opinions beforehand.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:55
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LemonDrizzle posted:Breaches of treaty obligations are handled by the European Commission in the first instance. However, the risk of fines would very much be a secondary concern: the much more pressing issue is that we will require tremendous amounts of goodwill and good faith from our negotiating partners if we are to secure any kind of not-disastrous leaving deal, and wiping our collective arse with our treaty obligations does not seem like a particularly good way of generating goodwill or good faith. On top of that, the third countries with whom we'd be negotiating these new treaties might start asking awkward questions like "if you're so willing to poo poo on your obligations under the EU treaties, how can we be confident that you won't do the same thing to us if the treaties we're negotiating now turn out to be inconvenient to you in the future?" I'm sure Boris would be able to reassure these third countries in short order!   
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Jul 15, 2016 14:57
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Edit: ^^^ Dammit. LemonDrizzle posted:It might be quite difficult to formulate convincing answers to questions like that.
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Jul 15, 2016 14:57
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LemonDrizzle posted:Plenty did. The research was rubbished as fearmongering.
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Jul 15, 2016 15:05
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Fangz posted:That figure means the EU trade is important to the UK. It doesn't mean the UK is important to the EU. The UK isn't 70% of EU food imports.
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Jul 15, 2016 15:06
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A Buttery Pastry posted:While that is correct, you're forgetting all the stuff the EU imports from Canada, India, Australia, Singapore, and so on. How much of that stuff goes through Britain? I thought the whole role of the UK was to serve as a link between anglophone countries and the continental EU, trade-wise?
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Jul 15, 2016 15:15
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That sounds like some sort of Leave campaign rationalization (not accusing you or anything, it's just where that talking point might have come from). Everyone speaks English. There's nothing special about the UK that is lost when dealing with Anglophone countries. The EU has its experts and negotiators. And the ships go directly to where they are needed, like to Rotterdam. It's not like they physically need to stop at the UK. I doubt they do even now, because everything related to shipping goods is streamlined down to a form of art. Planes fly to the US from DeGaulle all the time, etc.
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Jul 15, 2016 15:25
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A Buttery Pastry posted:While that is correct, you're forgetting all the stuff the EU imports from Canada, India, Australia, Singapore, and so on. Psst, the Empire is over. The Queen can't just command India to stop trading with Europe any more.
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Jul 15, 2016 15:27
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Fangz posted:Psst, the Empire is over. The Queen can't just command India to stop trading with Europe any more. It's still there in the minds of some people. Same as the way the Cold War is totes still going on, oooo that Putin he cares so much about the UK. I've had both of these arguments thrown at me by pro-leavers and I utterly failed to find a way to counter the sheer historical revisionism of it all.
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Jul 15, 2016 15:30
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A Buttery Pastry posted:While that is correct, you're forgetting all the stuff the EU imports from Canada, India, Australia, Singapore, and so on. ... What does that have to do with anything?
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Jul 15, 2016 15:31
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Pureauthor posted:... What does that have to do with anything? Genetic posted:It's still there in the minds of some people. Same as the way the Cold War is totes still going on, oooo that Putin he cares so much about the UK.
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Jul 15, 2016 15:56
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A Buttery Pastry posted:While that is correct, you're forgetting all the stuff the EU imports from Canada, India, Australia, Singapore, and so on. You do realize that Canada has been in talks with the EU to negotiate a trade deal, right? Completely independent of whatever the gently caress the UK is doing. We're not beholden to British whims when it comes to trade or foreign affairs.
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Jul 15, 2016 15:56
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Pussy Cartel posted:You do realize that Canada has been in talks with the EU to negotiate a trade deal, right? Completely independent of whatever the gently caress the UK is doing. We're not beholden to British whims when it comes to trade or foreign affairs. In fact, with a shiny new EU trade deal in place, Canada could be in a position to really take advantage of the UK's apparent desire to cut off its nose to spite its face.
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Jul 15, 2016 16:02
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A Buttery Pastry posted:To be fair, we totally are in a new Cold War. I think that undersells the actual Cold War a bit, but I get where you are coming from. I guess to rephrase, I'd say 'Some believe that the Cold War never ended and that the UK is a major player.'
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Jul 15, 2016 16:04
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Genetic posted:I think that undersells the actual Cold War a bit, but I get where you are coming from. Genetic posted:I guess to rephrase, I'd say 'Some believe that the Cold War never ended and that the UK is a major player.'
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Jul 15, 2016 16:11
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sassassin posted:Rude, but yes. No it'll just be an even more miserable dreary place to live. loving yay. Silver lining or what. Some people expected more of life.
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Jul 15, 2016 16:29
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