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CelestialScribe posted:Holy poo poo.
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Jul 23, 2016 10:18
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Stop talking about "winning trajectories." Here, have some winning trajectories: A tightening in the race doesn't mean the one who is doing the catching up is going to shoot through the ceiling and get 80% of the vote on election day.
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Jul 23, 2016 10:20
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Mixodorian posted:Because Trump making GBS threads all over popular state politicians has hurt him before, right? He did really poorly in SC after putting Lindsey Graham on blast and releasing his cell phone number, IIRC. CelestialScribe posted:Holy poo poo. I don't know why this needs to be repeated so often, but this ain't the primary anymore. GE Trump can't get away with poo poo like the Curiel nonsense because now he's not being pitched exclusively to white supremacists. This a whole state is just going to hoot along and say THAT'S OUR TRUMP when he's melting down attacking their sitting governor whom a lot view as a much better candidate than him? He hasn't 'gotten away' with poo poo that was GE-centric flubs, they've just been pushed aside to make room for other big flubs.
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Jul 23, 2016 10:20
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The Rokstar posted:Honestly I'm perfectly fine with 538 skewing polls in favor of Trump. People NEED to be arzying. This isn't an election where people can afford to be complacent. There's way too goddamn much at stake here. If every person arzying can just make sure all their friends and family are registered to vote that's a serious contribution in of itself. Seriously, anyone in this thread who's terrified: make sure your registration is up to date, make sure your friends and family's registrations are up to date.
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Jul 23, 2016 10:20
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Thundercracker posted:If every person arzying can just make sure all their friends and family are registered to vote that's a serious contribution in of itself. Seriously, anyone in this thread who's terrified: make sure your registration is up to date, make sure your friends and family's registrations are up to date. What if my whole family hates Hillary?  Anyway for real, yes right now Trump is doing way too well for what I'd like, but the DNC hasn't even happened yet and Hillary just announced her VP. If Hillary's numbers are this bad about a month or so from now, then we can panic.
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Jul 23, 2016 10:24
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Epic High Five posted:I don't know why this needs to be repeated so often, but this ain't the primary anymore. GE Trump can't get away with poo poo like the Curiel nonsense because now he's not being pitched exclusively to white supremacists. This a whole state is just going to hoot along and say THAT'S OUR TRUMP when he's melting down attacking their sitting governor whom a lot view as a much better candidate than him? The primaries ended at the beginning of June. Since then. Trump's numbers have continued to rise. Let's stop pretending we haven't hit the GE yet. We've been there for six or seven weeks.
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Jul 23, 2016 10:24
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Antti posted:Arzying that leads to phonebanking, voter drives, donations = fine. Are people actually phonebanking for Hillary that aren't being paid?
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Jul 23, 2016 10:51
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greatn posted:They should figure out times when Donald specifically lost in a deal or was bamboozled and cut an ad calling him Donald Chump and see what he does. I like this.
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Jul 23, 2016 11:41
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Antti posted:Stop talking about "winning trajectories." Here, have some winning trajectories: The fact that this race seems to be as close as Obama-Romney despite all of Trump's gaffes is deeply unnerving to a lot of people because it just proves that political opinions are calcified to the point where nothing matters. Trump is going to get his 40% +/- a few points for news cycle bumps and there is nothing that can be done about it. The real Arzying should be around Hillary's terrible numbers, but as already mentioned, we need to be patient for 4 weeks or so.
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Jul 23, 2016 12:09
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Sylink posted:Are people actually phonebanking for Hillary that aren't being paid? Eh, I don't know, entirely possible. I just think back to 2008 when volunteers did it too.
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Jul 23, 2016 12:17
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Antti posted:Eh, I don't know, entirely possible. I just think back to 2008 when volunteers did it too. Is phonebanking by volunteers rare? My local office of the Democratic Party phonebanks with volunteers, I did it for Obama in 2012.
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Jul 23, 2016 12:19
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Is... is that a terrorist fist bump? 
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Jul 23, 2016 12:22
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CelestialScribe posted:Let's stop pretending we haven't hit the GE yet. We've been there for six or seven weeks. Sure, let's run with that assumption. If the general's been going on for nearly two months, why has Trump's plan for one of the most crucial swing states in the election to snub its political delegates and ignore its sitting governor? If the general's been going on for nearly two months, where is the Trump campaign infrastructure on the ground organizing volunteers, getting in touch with communities, and all around encouraging voters? You may be so sure the GE has begun, but Trump sure isn't. And if you think that someone who can't even tell when an election is ongoing has a chance of winning it, then you're delusional at best. Realize this: this is Hillary's election to lose. Trump doesn't need to put up a credible opposition. He needs to dominate. He needs to expend every last dollar on getting his message out because to the lay person he is a stuffed up rich person whose catchphrase is essentially "you're on the street and will starve, isn't capitalism great?" competing against the wife of one of the most popular and charismatic presidents in the last few decades. That's the fundamental battle he has to fight against. Against Hillary, Trump needs overwhelming infrastructure, logistics, management, charisma, establishment support, and, of course, money. He has none of these. Trump cannot win an election he isn't even trying to place in. Or, more likely, you're a crappy troll with a dumb gimmick who can't even be funny. Trump needs to win Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and whole bunch of other states that wouldn't have necessarily been in play but he's just that alienating. If you're not providing evidence for how he's winning them, then shut the hell up and stop wasting my screen space.
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Jul 23, 2016 12:23
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Evil Fluffy posted:quote: others put it better. But yes, Manafort is a Putin stooge if not an agent of the FSB.
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Jul 23, 2016 12:24
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Nenonen posted:Is... is that a terrorist fist bump? It's the Bilderberg Group secret handshake.
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Jul 23, 2016 12:24
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Epic High Five posted:tbh I was kind of expecting more out of Trump considering he had a week dedicated to him right after Clinton had what will probably be the roughest week of the GE Isn't Trump like actually tried in several polls now?
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Jul 23, 2016 12:56
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Trasson posted:Sure, let's run with that assumption. Evidence - the goddamn loving polls.
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Jul 23, 2016 12:59
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Trasson posted:Realize this: this is Hillary's election to lose. Trump doesn't need to put up a credible opposition. He needs to dominate. He needs to expend every last dollar on getting his message out because to the lay person he is a stuffed up rich person whose catchphrase is essentially "you're on the street and will starve, isn't capitalism great?" competing against the wife of one of the most popular and charismatic presidents in the last few decades. That's the fundamental battle he has to fight against. Against Hillary, Trump needs overwhelming infrastructure, logistics, management, charisma, establishment support, and, of course, money. He has none of these. Trump cannot win an election he isn't even trying to place in. Have you not been paying attention to the past 12 months or what's the deal here? As a foreigner observing this election nothing frightens me more than the complacency of the American left (and centre, I guess) who somehow still think Trump won't appeal to enormous swathes of an uneducated, angry electorate despite being repeatedly proved wrong over this entire campaign. This is happening. It's real, it's frightening and it's dangerous. Please stop being in denial.
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Jul 23, 2016 12:59
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freebooter posted:Have you not been paying attention to the past 12 months or what's the deal here? he appeals to white men pretty much exclusively. people are unconcerned because he's going to get the customary 40 to 45 percent of votes from people who would vote for a literal trashcan if it had an "R" next to it and lose.
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Jul 23, 2016 13:02
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CelestialScribe posted:Evidence - the goddamn loving polls. I'm genuinely curious, are you a real Trump supporter, an ironic Trump supporter, or are you making a statement about circlejerks wrt internet forums or something? Honest question. quote:As a foreigner observing this election nothing frightens me more than the complacency of the American left (and centre, I guess) who somehow still think Trump won't appeal to enormous swathes of an uneducated, angry electorate despite being repeatedly proved wrong over this entire campaign. This is happening. It's real, it's frightening and it's dangerous. Please stop being in denial. First of all, we people on an internet forum have no power over what, say, the Hillary campaign does in response to polls. Secondly, the Hillary campaign hasn't even started to do meaningful poo poo yet, because she hasn't even accepted the nomination formally. You're freaking out before she's even begun to dump millions of dollars onto the country in ads and voter outreach, etc. Lastly, "enormous swathes of an uneducated, angry electorate" represents basically older white men, who are the people that Trump polls well with. America isn't nearly as white as Britain, Australia, or most other Western democracies, and in this case that plays to our favor with a candidate who is toxic to everyone who isn't a 40-something + white man. What we're seeing now is Hillary dipping in the polls. Trump is staying mostly constant/going slightly up in response to the convention and current events. If, once the Hillary campaign gets into full swing, her numbers don't recover (i.e. in about a month), then it's time to start freaking the gently caress out. Lightning Knight fucked around with this message at 13:12 on Jul 23, 2016 |
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Jul 23, 2016 13:08
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botany posted:he appeals to white men pretty much exclusively. people are unconcerned because he's going to get the customary 40 to 45 percent of votes from people who would vote for a literal trashcan if it had an "R" next to it and lose. Demographic analysis breaks down when voting isn't compulsory and the turnout at the last election was less than 60%. My gut fear is that a celebrity politician like Trump will draw out a shitload of people who wouldn't normally vote but may very well vote for the first time in their lives because they're attracted to him for all the same reasons the rest of us are mortified by him.
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Jul 23, 2016 13:11
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CelestialScribe posted:Evidence - the goddamn loving polls. Toxx for Trump if you are so sure he's going to keep going up uP UP in the polls. This is his ceiling. After the DNC Hillary will climb up higher. I know you won't believe me or care, but in 2 weeks I will be right and you will still be a panicking idiot or the most annoying gimmick account ever.
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Jul 23, 2016 13:17
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Toxx or gently caress off with absolutist predictions. Discussing the odds and methodologies and polls is just discussion.
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Jul 23, 2016 13:24
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VanSandman posted:Toxx or gently caress off with absolutist predictions. Discussing the odds and methodologies and polls is just discussion. Tox, gently caress off, or sign up to help if you're that worried. https://www.hillaryclinton.com/forms/volunteer/
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Jul 23, 2016 13:30
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freebooter posted:Have you not been paying attention to the past 12 months or what's the deal here? I live in a solidly blue state. I can be in as much denial as I wish and it will have no effect on anything either way when it comes to who becomes president. Which is kind of my point. 60+% of the country could be died in the wool Trump supporters who would never vote anything else even if he showed up at their door, killed their family, and burned their house down. It doesn't actually matter how many enormous swathes of uneducated angry voters there are if their position doesn't matter. Which most of them don't. In short, it's not about how many angry Trump voters there are, it's about how many there are in states that actually matter. Popular vote doesn't win you elections: securing a majority in a selection of individual states do. It's not complacent denial to observe whose favor the deck is stacked in. CelestialScribe posted:Evidence - the goddamn loving polls. Polls aren't evidence. Polls don't go door to door and convince individual voters about what matters. Polls don't put up signs or run TV ads or secure influential support. All polls do is indicate the leanings of a more-or-less arbitrary sampling of people at a given time. Polls do not indicate actual voters. Sure, people may like Trump enough to answer that they'd vote for him on the phone. Do they like him enough to go stand in line on a work day? Turnout matters: how is Trump getting his devotees to actually show up in November?
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Jul 23, 2016 13:33
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One very important thing that I think has so far been mostly overlooked is the candidates' ground game. As Trasson noted, polls don't mean poo poo if no one bothers to show up on election day. So how are things going? Here are two recently blurbs from the electoral-vote.com. First an overall look at the ground game: quote:Ohio Republicans were expecting to have 220 paid staff on the ground by May; they currently have 50. In Pennsylvania, they planned to have 190 but only 60 have been hired and deployed. In Colorado, the goal was 80 but only about two dozen are working in the field. In Iowa it was supposed to be 66 but it is about 25 to 30. And this is true of nearly all other swing states as well. The gulf between the plans and the reality for the GOP is enormous. The lack of staff on the ground hinders the Republicans in the presidential race, but also downticket. In Florida, the mother of all swing states but also the location of a hotly contested Senate seat, Trump's state headquarters, in Sarasota, has a sign on the door that reads: "THANKS FOR STOPPING BY OUR OFFICE!" Next to that, the sign continues with: "Our office is TEMPORARILY CLOSED to the public, while our office works to prep for the National Convention in Cleveland." A well-organized campaign does not go dark for a week or two in the most important state just when political activity is picking up. If Trump has any shot at all, he's going to need to win those swing states. How's that working out in Ohio, where the GOP just had their convention? quote:Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) has not endorsed Donald Trump and is not even attending the Republican National Convention, even though it is in the state he governs. Trump responded by calling Kasich petulant and embarrassing. Now it is Kasich's turn to shoot, and he has the bigger gun. Trump has almost no ground operation in Ohio, and ground operations are crucial to getting out the vote on Election Day. No matter what people tell pollsters when they are called, if they don't make the effort to actually vote, what they told the pollster doesn't matter so much. Trump is counting on the state parties in all the competitive states to organize the ground war, from getting people to knock on doors to the get-out-the-vote operation. Kasich has now made it fairly clear that he has no current plans to help Trump in Ohio and has told senior political operatives to stay on the sidelines for the time being. If Trump can't make up with Kasich—and right now that seems very unlikely—he is on his own in this key swing state. Trump may or may not be aware (or care) that no Republican has ever been elected president while losing Ohio, but Kasich certainly knows this. Kasich also knows that if Trump wins, Kasich 2020 is dead in the water, but if Clinton wins, his ace in the hole will be: "I can win the critical state of Ohio." So yeah, I'm not gonna sweat post RNC polls showing Trump within striking distance if he can't even be bothered to set up anything remotely resembling a GOTV.
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Jul 23, 2016 13:41
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Trasson posted:I live in a solidly blue state. I can be in as much denial as I wish and it will have no effect on anything either way when it comes to who becomes president. No poo poo. The reason swing states are swing states is because they're diverse microcosms of the nationas a whole. Voter turnout in Florida and Nevada and Ohio is going to be the same as the nation as a whole; the amount of angry, uneducated people who lost their jobs in the last five years and still don't understand why is going to be the same as the nation as a whole; the amount of people who aren't switched on to politics at all but like Trump because he's been on TV for years and tells it like is is going to be the same as the nation as a whole. Pointing out that the election is decided by a handful of swing voters in a handful of states should make you not make you any less worried. Why are you assuming the deck is stacked in Clinton's favour because of this? (I mean, yes, it is more likely than not that she will win, but that has nothing to do with the fact that 90% of Americans' votes don't matter.)
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Jul 23, 2016 13:43
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Oxxidation posted:Silver's statistics are still on point, so while he may be pushing a little too far in the other direction after his initial assessment of Trump, his current projections are still cause for concern. 20% of voters either vote don't know or 3rd party (which tend to over perform on polls) on a lot of these polls what the gently caress are you even talking about
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Jul 23, 2016 13:54
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Dexo posted:Jesus christ that WaPo op ed is loving savage. Yeah, too bad nobody reads those things except people who have already made up their minds.
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Jul 23, 2016 14:12
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CelestialScribe, are you a Trump supporter that wants him to win, or are you a Clinton/Democrat supporter that wants her to win? Because it's starting to get difficult to see the difference. It seems like you're worried that Trump will win, but given that, what exactly do you want out of this thread to happen? Like, okay, assume for a moment that Trump is on a path to victory. Now what?
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Jul 23, 2016 14:33
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Ballz posted:One very important thing that I think has so far been mostly overlooked is the candidates' ground game. As Trasson noted, polls don't mean poo poo if no one bothers to show up on election day. Man those ground game numbers are rough. I wonder how you pick up a paid position for this sort of thing anyway?
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Jul 23, 2016 14:35
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gradenko_2000 posted:CelestialScribe, are you a Trump supporter that wants him to win, or are you a Clinton/Democrat supporter that wants her to win? He's an Australian who wants to be Cassandra.
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Jul 23, 2016 14:36
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None of this matters subscribe to Jacobin, vote green and hail Satan.
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Jul 23, 2016 14:42
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nachos posted:The fact that this race seems to be as close as Obama-Romney despite all of Trump's gaffes is deeply unnerving to a lot of people because it just proves that political opinions are calcified to the point where nothing matters. Trump is going to get his 40% +/- a few points for news cycle bumps and there is nothing that can be done about it. Look at the Republican Convention, where the top used words were Hillary and Clinton, and Chris Christie performed a mock trial. Now imagine the Democratic Convention where the most used words are Donald and Trump, and Hillary can't stop cackling and we cackle with her because we agree that Trump is a mess. At least in previous election cycles, we had McCain telling his supporters that Obama is not a terrorist. In this election everything is ramped up to eleven and we'll be seeing two cults of personality fighting against each other with nothing held back. This thread is in such "We must stop Donald at all costs" mode, that we forget that the Republicans are in the same state of mind with Hillary. "We have so much to lose." I know who's going to win, and so do you, but that doesn't mean I'm not scared at how we get there.
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Jul 23, 2016 14:43
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPPh_s3x32o Colbert's people sold Frank Luntz a shirt. 
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Jul 23, 2016 14:59
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Mike the TV posted:Look at the Republican Convention, where the top used words were Hillary and Clinton, and Chris Christie performed a mock trial. Now imagine the Democratic Convention where the most used words are Donald and Trump, and Hillary can't stop cackling and we cackle with her because we agree that Trump is a mess. That's not going to happen. It's pretty obvious that they're going to try to take the high road and are calculating that optimism will sell better than fear. Red-meat Trump bashing will be scheduled out of prime time or on Monday. I don't mean there won't be any attacks. There will be plenty. But they'll be much less crass, and they'll be surrounded by way more positivity.
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Jul 23, 2016 15:02
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Unlike Arzy Celestial Scribe is CLEARLY just a troll.
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Jul 23, 2016 15:03
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Aerox posted:A bunch of Bernie people on my Facebook, most of whose biggest criticism against Hillary was Wall Street ties, are all now livid that Hillary picked Kaine over Cory Booker. they're nothing if not inconsistent.
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Jul 23, 2016 15:05
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misty mountaintop posted:That's not going to happen. It's pretty obvious that they're going to try to take the high road and are calculating that optimism will sell better than fear. Red-meat Trump bashing will be scheduled out of prime time or on Monday. I'm just hoping Granholm gives another cocaine-fueled screaming speech, that poo poo was bananas last time. E: 
FAUXTON fucked around with this message at 15:09 on Jul 23, 2016 |
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Jul 23, 2016 15:06
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Grapplejack posted:Man those ground game numbers are rough. I wonder how you pick up a paid position for this sort of thing anyway? I had one back in 2006. I found out about the openings because I was a state house page at the time but basically you apply, they ask if you're willing to work 80+ hour weeks from May through the November for very little money, and then you're hired.
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