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etalian posted:Not if NH goes red due to a 3rd party vote split. We get you hate Clinton but get this tie/3rd party bullshit out of your system
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Jul 31, 2016 19:53
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etalian posted:Not if NH goes red due to a 3rd party vote split. if PA, VA, and CO go blue then NH is irrelevant VA, CO, PA, and NV = 270. that means losing FL, NC, NM, IA, and OH.
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Jul 31, 2016 19:53
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Fox Ironic posted:Calling for NBC/WSJ today! Four surveys in the past 1.5 hours.  e: also what do you mean by bizarrely fixated on melania? i want some details on that if you don't mind Karl Sharks fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Jul 31, 2016 |
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Jul 31, 2016 19:54
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Squizzle posted:Nate Silver's mind and hairline have been broken. 
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Jul 31, 2016 19:54
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Fox Ironic posted:Calling for NBC/WSJ today! Four surveys in the past 1.5 hours. Lol but she'll obviously end up voting for Clinton, lmao, wtf at liking both Ryan and Obama, and that fourth person at least supports mental hospitals so she's not as repugnant as she could be, yet
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Jul 31, 2016 19:56
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Despera posted:We get you hate Clinton but get this tie/3rd party bullshit out of your system 
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Jul 31, 2016 19:57
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If you focus on the shallowest of qualities between the two of them, then it becomes a bit more understandable.
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Jul 31, 2016 19:59
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Concerned Citizen posted:if PA, VA, and CO go blue then NH is irrelevant
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Jul 31, 2016 20:00
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Grey Fox posted:If you focus on the shallowest of qualities between the two of them, then it becomes a bit more understandable.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:01
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God drat it Nate 
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Jul 31, 2016 20:01
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Fox Ironic posted:Survey #1: Retired Woman from Ohio, on the fence between Trump and Clinton. Big fan of Rob Portman and other "socially moderate" Republicans. Upset about Trump's anti-Muslim rhetoric and the fact he may refuse to debate Clinton, who she thinks is much smarter, but less trustworthy than Trump. Reminder that Portman is in a tough reelection battle and will probably need some Clinton Portman crossover voters to survive. Portman (R-OH) was, among other things, the first Republican Senator to come out as pro-gay marriage, and is trying his hardest to be a kinder, gentler face for GOP economic policies.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:01
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showbiz_liz posted:God drat it Nate http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/ just look at the weighting of the polls for a good laugh
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Jul 31, 2016 20:03
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Literally everything except some no-name poll from Praecones Analytica has Hillary tied or ahead in New Hampshire:  This means Trump will win New Hampshire, because reasons.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:04
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What are the odds that Nate will get another failed hair transplant surgery?
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Jul 31, 2016 20:04
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Decius posted:Their method breaks down a bit with the current situation of so few state polls. Every single poll swings the whole state extremely in the model, something they try to smooth out with the polls-plus model (the "unskew" one, that puts economic situation, demographics and other assumption into the calculation). I hope we see more polls now that the conventions are over. We're still in the midst of the DNC bump as well so don't expect really reliable polls for another two weeks. For now just sit back and Arzy over meaningless data points
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Jul 31, 2016 20:05
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showbiz_liz posted:God drat it Nate RCP is missing a recent NH Journal poll that had Trump +9. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-president-trump-vs-clinton
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Jul 31, 2016 20:05
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etalian posted:What are the odds that Nate will get another failed hair transplant surgery? He's only pursuing this election to research where Trump got his
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Jul 31, 2016 20:06
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Karl Sharks posted:
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Jul 31, 2016 20:06
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It's 4 electoral votes anyway.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:06
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That's what I mean with the limitations of the model(s) with the current situation of polls. The whole thing is currently based on more or less 4 polls, 2 with Clinton ahead, one with Trump quite far ahead, one tie. From June and pre-convention July. By three pollster with a pretty mediocre rating and one without any rating at all (the +9 Trump one). Basically a dart board would give you a result that's probably more reliable than that. Basing a model on such crappy data will make for an comparison on the day after the election. Edit: Read the crappy "unskew" column instead of the real column. Suck it, Nate Silver! Decius fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Jul 31, 2016 |
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Jul 31, 2016 20:07
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Joementum posted:RCP is missing a recent NH Journal poll that had Trump +9. also NH has some many weirdos it will have more 3rd party vote splitting
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Jul 31, 2016 20:07
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fade5 posted:Literally everything except some no-name poll from Praecones Analytica has Hillary tied or ahead in New Hampshire: http://www.insidesources.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/IS-NHJ-Poll-07.26.16.pdf that's the source, very little breakdown/info on demographics, but it is NH so guess there wouldn't be a sizable minority population to affect things 
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Jul 31, 2016 20:07
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Piquai Souban posted:I still can't get over Reince giving Trump a blank cheque endorsement from the RNC on all current and future opinions. Impressive that they could make that out through his gimp mask.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:08
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Joementum posted:RCP is missing a recent NH Journal poll that had Trump +9. no, it's listed as Praecones Analytica but if you click on it, it links to that one
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Jul 31, 2016 20:08
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etalian posted:also NH has some many weirdos it will have more 3rd party vote splitting NH doesn't really have a history of 3rd party voting. it's honestly very, very difficult to ascertain how well 3rd parties will do before the election. there is a long history of people saying they'll vote 3rd party in polls than then switching to one of the main parties at the ballot box. or sometimes they don't show up at the polls at all and then get a big result on election day. i would agree that this election is ripe for a 3rd party insurgency but 10% for gary johnson? not sure about that. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Jul 31, 2016 |
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Jul 31, 2016 20:09
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This is the election in which Vermin Supreme will go big and give us a Trump presidency.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:11
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Internet Webguy posted:Impressive that they could make that out through his gimp mask. And the drunken slurs. How many bottles is he pouring into his cereal now?
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Jul 31, 2016 20:11
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Trump is going to invite Hillary for a debate in the middle of 5th Avenue.Karl Sharks posted:
Grey Fox posted:They ain't ugly, and they seem to be well-versed in basic politeness. Sometimes that can be a lot to ask for in politics.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:11
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Karl Sharks posted:no, it's listed as Praecones Analytica but if you click on it, it links to that one You didn't read my post.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:13
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What are the differences between NH and other north-east states (VT & ME mostly) that put it in play for republicans?
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Jul 31, 2016 20:13
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https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/759827196466855936
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Jul 31, 2016 20:14
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Joementum posted:You didn't read my post.  i was too focused on finding out who they were, mostly get poo poo from civ games and roman stuff when googling them, plus a couple articles mentioning this one post it's weird
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Jul 31, 2016 20:14
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GobiasIndustries posted:What are the differences between NH and other north-east states (VT & ME mostly) that put it in play for republicans? most of the people who live there are massachusetts natives who were pissed off enough about taxes to move
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Jul 31, 2016 20:16
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don't you love how this is worded https://twitter.com/justinjm1/status/759823747587137536
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Jul 31, 2016 20:21
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https://twitter.com/TeresaKopec/status/759829616450211840 C'mon, Man
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Jul 31, 2016 20:22
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E: ^^ surrogate it just some guy? That is terrible spinVertical Lime posted:don't you love how this is worded This is about radical Islamic terrorism shiksa fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Jul 31, 2016 |
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Jul 31, 2016 20:23
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loving 
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Jul 31, 2016 20:25
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CNN currently playing the whole "He's never going into Ukraine" "He's already there?" "Well, of course he is" which is bad enough in the transcript, but the video really pushes it over the top into "holy lol he is an actual idiot"
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Jul 31, 2016 20:26
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"Give me the Lego man." https://twitter.com/mike_pence/status/759833032660508673
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Jul 31, 2016 20:29
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It will be interesting to compare the unskewing done by Nate Silver with the real result in November. After 2012 (where the pure polls were pretty good) and the Primary (where the pure polls again were pretty good, but Silver dropped the ball by ignoring the polls and playing pundit) building a model where the whole assumption is that Trump will do by 3-5 % better than the polls say in basically every single swing state - unskewing the polls - is an interesting approach. I guess their hope/assumption is that the polls will be in line with their prediction in October/November, but that seems a pretty big assumption on his side in the first place. At least we don't have 3-4 site all saying basically the same this time around, will be interesting if Upshot/PEC or 538 have the better model for a less stable race than 2008/2012. Edit: I mean, he does it even for Colorado. A +3 Clinton poll suddenly becomes a +1 Trump poll. Despite being already LV. Making a state where Clinton leads all six recent polls with at least +3 to 2 polls with Trump up and Clinton's margins reduced by up to 5 points. He's basically doing Boosted's work from 2012. Decius fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Jul 31, 2016 |
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Jul 31, 2016 20:29
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