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Zas posted:at this point I really feel like I saw this all coming, but the undeniable truth is I didn't. weird how hindsight fucks with you. I have a poli sci degree and I've followed US elections since 2004 and I saw literally none of this coming. I'm not alone in this. It's kind of awesome actually, seeing history unfold. I somehow thought every prez election until the end of time or the next realignment would be fairly close even with the shifting demographics because in a two-party system operated by rational actors (ha!) the coalitions would start trading demographics if things got too lopsided. Maybe this is that realignment, maybe it's a hiccup Sulphagnist fucked around with this message at 09:05 on Aug 3, 2016 |
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Aug 3, 2016 09:03
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Antti posted:I'm a political scientist and I've followed US elections since 2004 and I saw literally none of this coming. I'm not alone in this. I do think we're kind of jumping the gun in saying this won't still be close-ish. I don't think Clinton will come anywhere near 400 electoral votes, and I don't think she'd do better than +10 points in the popular vote. There is a floor for Republican voters, and it is much higher than what it should be. But again, everything I've said about this election has been wrong so what the gently caress do I know.
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Aug 3, 2016 09:05
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Nice worthless degree for idiot fuckers! I say with my English major Religious Studies miror
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Aug 3, 2016 09:06
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Josef K. Sourdust posted:Narcissistic Personality Disorder Symptoms By Steve Bressert, Ph.D. I love these classifications, because they usually apply to everyone. Like most people behave/experience life like this *to some degree*. The intensity of each of these variables matters the most, and the severity with with which they affect you and the people around you. But usually people leave that bit out.
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Aug 3, 2016 09:07
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I will never, EVER regret voting for that man for years. And he's absolutely right. One day the nation will go back to two strong political parties. But the Republican Party will not be one of those. Let it burn. Whatever is worth saving was taken by Bill and Hillary in the '90s and right now. The rest of it can and should burn. skaboomizzy posted:If a purely Evangelical party forms, it'll mostly be in the South and still vote lock-step with whatever remains of the GOP anyway. There are no more "moderate" Republicans remaining outside of the punditry. It's Tea Party anarchists and Bible Thumpers. Pretty much this. And this poo poo we don't need in the country anymore. Reagan is dead, let his party of poo poo rot in the dust. That said, I have to admire Obama for playing today this well. I just wonder when he's going to pull Merrick Garland's nomination and let Mitch McConnell eat poo poo.
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Aug 3, 2016 09:08
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mike12345 posted:I love these classifications, because they usually apply to everyone. Like most people behave/experience life like this *to some degree*. The intensity of each of these variables matters the most, and the severity with with which they affect you and the people around you. But usually people leave that bit out. Can Trump be considered to have the personality disorder when it almost certainly does not affect his daily life due to his fortune? It's pretty easy to have a horrible personality and have ~$1 billion. It's not so easy when you're broke, and it actually does affect your ability to keep yourself. In this Washington Post article posted earlier, the author brought up this quote from Trump. quote:Also, he’s alarmingly thin-skinned. Referring to critics who spoke at the Democratic National Convention, Trump said Thursday that he wanted to “hit a number of those speakers so hard, their heads would spin.” And: “I was going to hit one guy in particular, a very little guy.” Trump made clear Friday on Twitter that he was talking about “ ‘Little’ Michael Bloomberg, who never had the guts to run for president.” He says it's in reference to Bloomberg, but wasn't it obviously about Ryan Moore, the man with dwarfism that spoke there? Trump even made a waist high hand gesture indicating the guy's height. I took that entirely as Trump wanting to punch a dwarf. Nichael fucked around with this message at 09:17 on Aug 3, 2016 |
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Aug 3, 2016 09:12
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Oh, it's still possible for the election to be close, but it's more that it's also possible for it to be a blowout, which is something we haven't seen since 1996 pretty much. I doubt Clinton will actually win states like Wyoming or Idaho and she won't break 400 EV but given how things are polarized these days and certain states are deep blue and others deep red, it's still a very commanding performance if she can beat Obama '08 given all her baggage. Obama was pretty much the perfect candidate for '08 and McCain's campaign was a mess in retrospect and he still got only 365 EV, but he did win by 7 points which is where this race seems to be right now. TheTatteredKing posted:Nice worthless degree for idiot fuckers! My job has nothing to do with my degree so I rate this post as "True"
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Aug 3, 2016 09:14
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mike12345 posted:I love these classifications, because they usually apply to everyone. Like most people behave/experience life like this *to some degree*. The intensity of each of these variables matters the most, and the severity with with which they affect you and the people around you. But usually people leave that bit out. The diagnosis requires evidence of 5 out of 9 criteria. I've met 2 or 3 people in my personal life who *might* have reached that (3-5 criteria each). With Trump we have extensive evidence over a long period of all 9, wouldn't you say?
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Aug 3, 2016 09:18
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Tayter Swift posted:#MyLiberalFear is that Trump is gonna ramp up the "rigged" trope for months until we start seeing armed insurrections Seen a lot of posts like this, but wasn't their some similar rhetoric when a negro kenyan musilm was running for president and won... twice... and nothing much happened except for more bitching and moaning?
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Aug 3, 2016 09:18
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Gravy Jones posted:Seen a lot of posts like this, but wasn't their some similar rhetoric when a negro kenyan musilm was running for president and won... twice... and nothing much happened except for more bitching and moaning? Yeah, nothing organized will happen en masse. And anything that does happen will be as uneventful, boring, and  as those Oregon assholes. The biggest danger these people pose to society is simply voting for awful humans.However, now that I said that... Nichael posted:But again, everything I've said about this election has been wrong so what the gently caress do I know.
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Aug 3, 2016 09:20
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Also  https://twitter.com/JohnDingell/status/730803994721955840
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Aug 3, 2016 09:29
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No disrespect to Dingell, but does he have writers or something for that account? Because I never would've expected a 90 year old ex Representative being so consistently hilarious.
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Aug 3, 2016 09:35
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I can buy someone who was a Representative for nearly 60 years being good in this kind of medium (brief witty quips) if they get over the hurdle of learning how to use it. John Dingell posted:Never underestimate the power of an old man with a Twitter account, I guess.
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Aug 3, 2016 09:41
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Nichael posted:He says it's in reference to Bloomberg, but wasn't it obviously about Ryan Moore, the man with dwarfism that spoke there? Trump even made a waist high hand gesture indicating the guy's height. I took that entirely as Trump wanting to punch a dwarf. no it was obviously about bloomberg
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Aug 3, 2016 09:43
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awesmoe posted:no it was obviously about bloomberg I think I just really wanted "Trump Wants to Fight a Dwarf" to be a headline then.
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Aug 3, 2016 09:44
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Chances are he's going to get destroyed and all the whining about rigging won't matter
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Aug 3, 2016 09:53
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Nichael posted:I think I just really wanted "Trump Wants to Fight a Dwarf" to be a headline then. You got a trump yells at baby, don't be greedy
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Aug 3, 2016 09:54
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Khan was such a smart move... it's been obvious since the McCain gaffe what, a year ago? that Trump has a problem respecting vets, but Trump is Trump and McCain is McCain, so he could get past it. Now the only political baggage is Khan's religion, and of course that was gonna separate the wheat from the chaff really quick. People say the DNC is incompetent but this was a really really shrewd move.
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Aug 3, 2016 10:00
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Wikkheiser posted:Oh God. The debates.
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Aug 3, 2016 10:02
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Perfectly Safe posted:My worry is that there somehow won't be any debates. I just really, really want to see Clinton v Trump. We all do friend
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Aug 3, 2016 10:06
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TheTatteredKing posted:So is Trump's growing incoherence something that'll be seen in someone increasing dependence on uppers? manic stuff definitely is a common effect, I dunno about incoherence. but these things aren't exactly designed for people pushing 70, if trump is on what I think he's on
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Aug 3, 2016 10:08
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Zas posted:Khan was such a smart move... it's been obvious since the McCain gaffe what, a year ago? that Trump has a problem respecting vets, but Trump is Trump and McCain is McCain, so he could get past it. The conventions are typically organized by the campaign staff, not the party organization. Generally the general election campaign is where the national committee gets subordinated to the presidential candidate's apparatus, which is going to be swimming in resources and has the best people working on it (since top tier advisors don't usually want to work for the party directly, that doesn't get you into the West Wing). The RNC was some sort of weird mishmash of both and, well.
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Aug 3, 2016 10:08
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Antti posted:Oh, it's still possible for the election to be close, but it's more that it's also possible for it to be a blowout, which is something we haven't seen since 1996 pretty much. There was a week way back when I was breathlessly thinking maybe the house was in play. I just want a slaughter so very bad.
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Aug 3, 2016 10:09
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TheTatteredKing posted:There was a week way back when I was breathlessly thinking maybe the house was in play. I just want a slaughter so very bad. Iron Crowned posted:We all do friend
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Aug 3, 2016 10:13
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So let's imagine that sometime between now and November 8th, Trump does drop dead from some combination of drug OD, coronary disaster, and God being a hater and a loser (sad!). What effect does this have on the downticket? a) Good, because they're not associated with Trump anymore b) Great, because they get sympathy votes c) Bad, because their candidate was weak and he died and Hillary coasts to victory and brings Dems with her d) None of the above because Trumpsheviks riot in the streets, smash windows, overturn cars, and launch la revolucion
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Aug 3, 2016 10:13
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FAUXTON posted:They probably thought they had the country by the balls after the earmarks moratorium, Citizens United, and the Shelby decision. They'd gotten a greenlight on shitloads of outside oil baron money rolling in, they'd gotten the greenlight on voter suppression, and they'd severed the main route by which consensus is built in the legislature. quotin for reference
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Aug 3, 2016 10:16
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wakey wakey https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/760765818917515264
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Aug 3, 2016 10:17
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Antti posted:The conventions are typically organized by the campaign staff, not the party organization. Generally the general election campaign is where the national committee gets subordinated to the presidential candidate's apparatus, which is going to be swimming in resources and has the best people working on it (since top tier advisors don't usually want to work for the party directly, that doesn't get you into the West Wing).
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Aug 3, 2016 10:17
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Counterpoint: If Clinton dropped dead in November and Trump won, would anyone intervene to stop him taking power? Seriously, would there be a coup or would officials basically bypass him and prevent any of his actions being carried out? E: Would there be an immediate impeachment on some grounds?
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Aug 3, 2016 10:17
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Trump has learned that he is captaining a flaming trash barge
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Aug 3, 2016 10:22
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This guy is loving magnificent.
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Aug 3, 2016 10:23
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http://time.com/4433168/jesse-ventura-donald-trump/ Jesse Ventura floats the conspiracy that Trump is actively trying to destroy the Republican party as a revenge plot for sabotaging his attempt to run for president as an independent. [quote="Jesse Ventura" post=""""] Donald Trump is not a dumb man. You see, he saw what happened to the Reform Party, the third party I ran in when I became the Governor of Minnesota. Back in the 1990s, Donald was interested in running for office as an Independent, and he was there when Pat Buchanan came in with these legions of people (who were backed by the Republican Party) and took over the Reform party, got the nomination and then didn’t even run. Buchanan took the money we raised (at that point, we had quite a large national base thanks to Ross Perot and myself) and he used that money to retire his previous campaign debts. He had no intention of using our campaign money to run for president and that’s what destroyed the Reform party. This was all done by design so that the Reform party would no longer be a threat to the Republicans. Well, Trump was there then. He saw it. And I believe he’s doing the same thing to the Republicans that they did to us. [/quote] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign,_2000 "Trump focused his campaign on the issues of fair trade, eliminating the national debt, and achieving universal healthcare as outlined in the campaign companion piece The America We Deserve, released in January 2000." "Internal conflict caused Ventura to exit the Reform Party in February 2000, removing Trump's most vocal proponent. Trump officially ended his campaign on the February 14, 2000 airing of The Today Show. Though he believed he could still win the Reform Party presidential nomination, he felt the party was too dysfunctional to support his campaign and enable a win in the general election. A poll matching Trump against likely Republican nominee George W. Bush and likely Democratic nominee Al Gore showed Trump with seven percent support. Despite his withdrawal, Trump won both primaries for which he qualified. Buchanan would go on to win the nomination." this isn't really relevant but it was surreal to read on wikipedia He seriously considered running as a Republican in the 2012 presidential election but decided against it. Four years later, he initiated a full-scale presidential campaign and became the Republican Party's 2016 presidential nominee.
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Aug 3, 2016 10:24
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I'm sorry if this has all already been talked about, I'm slow to catching up on everything today, but this looks like a preview of the postgame entertainment:quote:TRUMP: I don’t want to jump the gun. I don’t want to talk about that. I’m just saying that I wouldn’t be surprised if the election . . . there’s a lot of dirty pool played at the election, meaning the election is rigged. I would not be surprised. The voter ID, they’re fighting as hard as you can fight so that that they don’t have to show voter ID. So, what’s the purpose of that? How many times is a person going to vote during the day? If you don’t have voter ID . . .
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Aug 3, 2016 10:27
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Josef K. Sourdust posted:Counterpoint: If Clinton dropped dead in November and Trump won, would anyone intervene to stop him taking power? Seriously, would there be a coup or would officials basically bypass him and prevent any of his actions being carried out? E: Would there be an immediate impeachment on some grounds? I think in this scenario, with the election day so close, the Clinton/Kaine ticket would probably still make it to 270+ EV and then the electors could vote Kaine for President, leave the VP position without a majority and let the Senate pick the VP. It would be functionally the almost the same as if Clinton had died right after taking the oath of office (except in that case there would be no VPOTUS at all and the Senate would have to confirm a new one). This is also how I would imagine most sudden death scenarios would play out if they happen so close to the election that there's no way to establish a clear and accepted replacement candidate. I think the VP candidate is in a very strong position there because they were chosen by the candidate to succeed them to the Presidency in that kind of scenario. This sort of thing hasn't happened in the modern era (IIRC it has never happened period; at worst we've had very brief presidencies). I love to poo poo on the electoral college but it does provide for an interesting backdoor for these one in a million scenarios.
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Aug 3, 2016 10:28
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I don't believe Trump's campaign is purposefully sabotaging the GOP and itself, but I don't think the theory is 100% ridiculous. Others have said this before: what exactly would Trump be doing differently if he did want to destroy them from the inside? And really, by January we'll have had 45 presidents. We've never had someone run a massive campaign as a joke before though. That is definitely something that would make Trump remembered far longer than being president, especially since he's not the first president for being X like Obama and Clinton are.
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Aug 3, 2016 10:32
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I'm starting to think that I may have engineered part of the interior of Trump's 757 
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Aug 3, 2016 10:33
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I never knew Hawaii was especially corrupt.
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Aug 3, 2016 10:34
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I'm reading the rest of this interview https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...a856_story.html which is great by the way, and Trump will not shut the gently caress up about the primary. It's like jesus christ get over it dude, we know it was the highlight of your life but you're running for president here, you gotta take the next step. What I mean is, it's not that Trump can't pivot, it's that he's entirely incapable of moving on to the general election even in his mind. Mia Wasikowska fucked around with this message at 11:05 on Aug 3, 2016 |
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Aug 3, 2016 10:37
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Zas posted:I'm reading the rest of this interview https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...a856_story.html which is great by the way, and Trump will not shut the gently caress up about the primary. It's like jesus christ get over it dude, we know it was the highlight of your life but you're running for president here, you gotta take the next step. I think peak Trump may have been him being upset that Clinton didn't congratulate him on winning the primary.
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Aug 3, 2016 10:39
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quote:they did absolutely nothing wrong, and they took a couple of lines made him look bad. you know who else had a swiss bank account and did nothing wrong...
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Aug 3, 2016 10:43
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