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Did he give a reason for the crazy upswing or was it just him covering his rear end?
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Aug 1, 2016 23:25
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Pollyanna posted:Did he give a reason for the crazy upswing or was it just him covering his rear end? The polls changed and it's from the joke model that pretends that the polls swinging wildly matters.
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Aug 1, 2016 23:28
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That's the "now-cast," it just shows what would happen if the election were held today. It doesn't hold itself out as a prediction, really.
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Aug 2, 2016 03:04
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The nowcast is Hillary Clinton 83.8%, Donald Trump 16.2% now
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Aug 2, 2016 03:36
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im now casting nathan silver out of my mind
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Aug 2, 2016 03:58
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 there's something fishy about the latest forecast tracker update
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Aug 2, 2016 04:14
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Leviathan posted:
I don't see why there has to be, this is a big swing but it's also an important moment in the race (the conventions)
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Aug 2, 2016 04:38
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Clinton had 2 good polls in PA today which swung the state well in her favor Fairly good one from Rasmussen of all pollsters in Nevada too that replaced an older bad one, where there's been surprisingly little polling
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Aug 2, 2016 04:51
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Jose posted:anyone got some some good tweets/links about how poo poo nate silver is? right here
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Aug 2, 2016 05:10
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friend, you mistakenly linked to fivethirtyeight.com when surely you meant to link to sixthirtyeight.com
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Aug 2, 2016 05:14
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Civilized Fishbot posted:I don't see why there has to be, this is a big swing but it's also an important moment in the race (the conventions) it's because it looks like one of those jesus fish, friend
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Aug 2, 2016 05:38
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*slow but measured clapping* *rest of audience joins in thunderous applause*
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Aug 2, 2016 05:54
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You could skip your colonoscopy if you're willing to collect your poop.
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Aug 2, 2016 15:47
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Leviathan posted:
as people were saying upthread, that's the nowcast
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Aug 2, 2016 17:55
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point of return posted:as people were saying upthread, that's the nowcast It actually isn't. The nowcast is even more volatile.
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Aug 2, 2016 18:02
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Tayter Swift posted:You could skip your colonoscopy if you're willing to collect your poop. Thanks, Jill Stein.
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Aug 2, 2016 18:17
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https://twitter.com/micahcohen/status/760527323418488835
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Aug 2, 2016 20:02
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It's cool how self-actualized they are WRT just how incapable the general public is at interpreting any form of quantitative information rationally.
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Aug 2, 2016 20:06
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I guess that makes PEC methadone.
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Aug 2, 2016 20:31
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Bip Roberts posted:It's cool how self-actualized they are WRT just how incapable the general public is at interpreting any form of quantitative information rationally. I literally listened to an interview of Nate Silver and Harry Enten where the interview asked what the odds are that Trump is elected if it has a 40% probability of happening
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Aug 2, 2016 20:45
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Nate 2012: People aren't caring enough about polls Nate 2016: You people are caring too much about polls
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Aug 2, 2016 20:48
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Nate 2020: "As you once did for the vacuous Trump, grant us eyes, grant us eyes. Plant eyes on our brains, to cleanse our beastly idiocy."
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Aug 2, 2016 21:04
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Civilized Fishbot posted:I literally listened to an interview of Nate Silver and Harry Enten where the interview asked what the odds are that Trump is elected if it has a 40% probability of happening 51% means Nate is 100% wrong if the outcome is the 49%
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Aug 2, 2016 21:07
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The nowcast is now 85.9% Clinton, and shows her with all swing states and now closing in on flipping Arizona and Georgia.
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Aug 2, 2016 23:39
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I hear this thread has got some of that purestrain Silver. Man, I'm fiending for some of that. Can someone hook a brotha up?
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Aug 2, 2016 23:48
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Corek posted:The nowcast is now 85.9% Clinton, and shows her with all swing states and now closing in on flipping Arizona and Georgia. I think I buy that
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Aug 3, 2016 05:13
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I mean based on polls alone at least, I mean lets be real here if the election really was today trump would have precisely zero chance with the week he's having
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Aug 3, 2016 05:16
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what are even statistics anyway when you think about it, you're just making up numbers after the fact to make yourself feel better
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Aug 3, 2016 18:34
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Nowcast: 88.6% Clinton, 11.3% Trump.
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Aug 4, 2016 01:07
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NATE!
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Aug 4, 2016 01:58
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Aug 4, 2016 05:23
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is... that...accurate?!
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Aug 4, 2016 05:26
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Has Harry Enten ever been wrong before?
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Aug 4, 2016 06:03
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sure is lovely that the generic ballot needs to be more than 4% Dem for "likely Dem control"
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Aug 4, 2016 06:48
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Jesus, these national polls sure are, uh, something
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Aug 4, 2016 07:01
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Tayter Swift posted:Jesus, these national polls sure are, uh, something What about the one true pollster, rassmussen, trump is still winning for them right?
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Aug 4, 2016 07:06
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Last national Rass poll was Clinton +1 last week, which Nate unskewed to C+5
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Aug 4, 2016 07:08
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Jesus hes hosed
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Aug 4, 2016 07:09
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Al! posted:Jesus hes hosed There's still plenty of time for, uh... *Shuffles notes around* ... Nope, I got nothing.
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Aug 4, 2016 07:14
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Maybe for the first time in her career, hillary will actually have a scandal that is real
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Aug 4, 2016 07:19
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