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Forever_Peace posted:Uhhhhh that actually sounds like a really high hit rate. 5 of 7 of early TEa end as TE1? Well, keep in mind that includes Gronk and Graham for the majority of those seasons. I do still think it sounds like a relatively high hit rate, but those two were pretty much automatic TE#1 and TE#2.
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Aug 6, 2016 20:52
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There's also an equally high rate of free TEs being TE1s.
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Aug 6, 2016 20:52
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You know, Josh Gordon/Corey Coleman/Gary Barnidge sounds like a hell of a receiving duo on paper. If RGIII is even an average QB this year, that could be good.
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Aug 6, 2016 20:59
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I'm going for Delanie Walker in every draft this year I think
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Aug 6, 2016 21:00
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Spoeank posted:There's also an equally high rate of free TEs being TE1s. True, but there's like 30 candidates for random waiver wire dudes you'd have to be able to tell apart. If you wait on a TE, and a couple guys flash early in the season, we're left trying to separate the wheat from the chaff. I certainly don't feel confident in my ability to distinguish the Larry Donnells (who fizzled) from the Gary Barnidges (who didn't). More, you almost always miss out on the big games that would make guys WW candidates in the first place. Ultimately what matters is the weekly marginal value at the position slot over other starters during the weeks that you would reasonably be starting that player. It's good to know that there are WW gems at TE, but it sounds like the chances of finding and starting points is really stacked at the top of the draft. Honestly I would have been happy to have taken Olsen or Kelce at value last year. OF course, contrary to my actual argument here, I "drafted" Scott Chandler, played him week 1 for 1 catch for 1 yard and a touchdown, then picked up Reed and won the league. But still.
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Aug 6, 2016 21:10
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Gary Barnidge will crash back to Earth so hard that he'll blast through the molten core and come out the other side
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Aug 6, 2016 21:13
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Varg posted:I'm going for Delanie Walker in every draft this year I think He's the best so good strat
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Aug 6, 2016 21:14
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Takes Niles Paul in the last round or keep him on WW speed dial for when Jordan Reed breaks in two.
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Aug 6, 2016 21:33
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Spoeank posted:There's also an equally high rate of free TEs being TE1s. That statement is also disingenuous, because TE1-12 are technically TE1s in a 12 team league, meanwhile, the difference between TE4/5 and TE8/9 is usually like less than 1.5 PPG and the difference between TE8/9 and TE16 is like another 1.5 PPG, so you're paying a premium for a FGs worth of points and taking a pretty big chance that the guy you're taking is going to get you the exact same or less PPG than a guy that goes undrafted. So unless you have Gronk or one of the two/three non-Gronk TEs that are difference makers, having a "TE1" is an entirely meaningless title and your TE is probably interchangeable with 3 guys from the WW you could've had instead Unless you mean TE1 by "tier" and not by points, which then there is only one and it's Gronk, and he's the only TE worth drafting high ever. Then there are like 2-4 "TE2" every year which are wholly unpredictable, and at least one or two are UDFA, and everyone else is replacement level garbage The case for drafting one of those second tier TEs high would hold water if those guys ever actually played up to their ADP and weren't consistently matched by UDFA and 10+ round afterthoughts. Olsen and Kelce were supposed to be the slam-dunk TE2/3 last year and were going in the first 60 picks, meanwhile, they were barely as effective as a UDFA (Barnidge), two late post-hype dart throws (Reed, Walker), and Everyone's Pre-Season Favorite 8+ Round Darling Who You Should've Waited For Instead (Eifert) e: and in Kelce's case, Watson, Ertz, Witten, and Gates were not that far off. Watson was a UDFA, Ertz is the new Rudolph in that people keep drafting him based on god knows what, and Witten/Gates who were still a 7-9thish round picks just because they are the marathon men e2: and the "hit rate" means nothing because you only need one TE, so only 8-14 of them need to be viable, and when half of them come off the wire, there's no need to waste picks on them. RBs might not have as high of a hit rate anecdotally, but way less roster essential RBs are going to pop up on the wire relative to the guys you could draft over an early TE then there will ever be TEs worth drafting Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Aug 6, 2016 |
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Aug 6, 2016 21:40
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Teemu Pokemon posted:That statement is also disingenuous, because TE1-12 are technically TE1s in a 12 team league, meanwhile, the difference between TE4/5 and TE8/9 is usually like less than 1.5 PPG and the difference between TE8/9 and TE16 is like another 1.5 PPG, so you're paying a premium for a FGs worth of points and taking a pretty big chance that the guy you're taking is going to get you the exact same or less PPG than a guy that goes undrafted. So unless you have Gronk or one of the two/three non-Gronk TEs that are difference makers, having a "TE1" is an entirely meaningless title and your TE is probably interchangeable with 3 guys from the WW you could've had instead You guys keep talking like this is only ever true of TEs. All positions have random waiver wire dudes that perform better than some of the early picks, and all positions have high-round duds. Essentially every position but WR can be picked up for free in most leagues.
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Aug 6, 2016 22:05
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Yeah but there's only like 10 good TEs which mean half of them are coming of the WW or in late rounds which is most definitely not true for any other position It has nothing to do with the fact that it's the only position where you can get value by waiting until the scraps of the draft or WW, because it's not; it has everything to do with the fact that it's the only "main roster" position (except maybe QB if you draft extraordinarily well at EVERY other position) where you can have a strategy wherein you completely ignore that position and still can be competitive. I would love to see a league where half of the starting 20-30 RBs were UDFA WW adds and half of those teams aren't lovely Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Aug 6, 2016 |
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Aug 6, 2016 22:10
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Teemu Pokemon posted:Yeah but there's only like 10 good TEs which mean half of them are coming of the WW or in late rounds which is most definitely not true for any other position Last year alone, this was literally true* of QBs (Bort/Palmer/Cousins/Fitz) and just as many top-12 running backs were basically free (Freeman/David Johnson/DWill) as were actually drafted in the top 12 (AP, Forte, Miller). Like, I'm not trying to argue that it might not be smart to wait on TEs. I do it all the time. I'm just trying to say that the arguments being presented here are unpersuasive. *using Spoenks actual value of 4.5 instead of rounding to "half"
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Aug 6, 2016 22:35
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Yeah but you need more than one RB, so unless you managed to grab two of those guys (who, by the way, in the case of Freeman, and to a lesser extent Williams, were prime zero-RB targets who you should be throwing darts at in the same rounds where you're going to be drafting a TE) you're sill going to need to play someone you drafted, likely, as I said, in one of those rounds where you decided, instead of using all your darts on RB/WR, to just throw one away at a TE for fun RB2/3 are still starters in almost every league, whereas most TE1s are replacement level e: I'm also willing to bet that if you ended up with two of those RBs, the rest of your roster was pretty immaterial unless your entire draft was lovely Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 22:59 on Aug 6, 2016 |
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Aug 6, 2016 22:45
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Varg posted:I'm going for Delanie Walker in every draft this year I think Football Outsiders Almanac says: "Despite being a tight end, and a tight end who built his career on being a blocker with the San Francisco 49ers, Walker has somehow become the Tennessee Titans’ No. 1 receiver. Walker is one of the most underrated players in the league because of the quarterbacks with whom he has played since signing with the Titans. Though both suffered with injuries last year, Walker and Marcus Mariota established a strong rapport quickly. Mariota was able to throw Walker open down the seams, something his previous quarterbacks couldn’t do, while also helping Walker create YAC more easily with his ball placement. The ceiling for Walker’s production with Mariota as his quarterback should be very high." And then they predict a significant regression in his numbers. Their predictions are mostly math-driven, so I think they're hedging.
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Aug 6, 2016 23:11
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I like Delanie, but I feel like the secret might be out on him. He's with Fleener in the "if he's there (depending on my draft so far) in the 8th or later I'm targeting him" I really think they're the only two TEs worth drafting after Gronk when you factor in ADP but I'll probably be so bearish on TEs in general that I'll probably miss out like I did on Eifert in every non-pubbie league
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Aug 7, 2016 00:26
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Any recommendations for free dynasty rookie advice/rankings? I screwed up and didn't pay much attention to college ball this past year and have picks 11 & 23 in my main leagues two round rookie only draft. Only three weeks to research before draft.
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Aug 7, 2016 00:32
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Papes posted:Hey gang, I'll make a proper thread later but I'm starting up a dynasty league and need players. Thread is up https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3785728 You know you guys can't say no to another league 
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Aug 7, 2016 01:12
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Jimmy Graham is going really late. Reminder that he was drafted really early last season. He had a terrible year but he got injured when Wilson got super hot.
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Aug 7, 2016 01:20
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Reminder that Jimmy Graham was really bad before he got what is considered to be the worst injury to return from in the NFL.
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Aug 7, 2016 01:21
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Seattle used graham as a blocker and not a wr lmao
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Aug 7, 2016 01:23
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Metapod posted:Seattle used graham as a blocker and not a wr lmao Well hey when you have that much talent on the offensive line you might as well trade the best one for a guy who theoretically can be asked to block. Wait a second...
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Aug 7, 2016 02:05
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Teemu Pokemon posted:I like Delanie, but I feel like the secret might be out on him. He's with Fleener in the "if he's there (depending on my draft so far) in the 8th or later I'm targeting him" I really think they're the only two TEs worth drafting after Gronk when you factor in ADP but I'll probably be so bearish on TEs in general that I'll probably miss out like I did on Eifert in every non-pubbie league Fleener Yahoo ADP is ridonkulously low and he's the TE to target there. Brees turned Ben loving Watson into a TE1 for christ's sake.
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Aug 7, 2016 02:37
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Hixalot posted:Any recommendations for free dynasty rookie advice/rankings? I screwed up and didn't pay much attention to college ball this past year and have picks 11 & 23 in my main leagues two round rookie only draft. Only three weeks to research before draft. Fantasy pros has very good looking rankings imo: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/rookies.php Here are some mocks: http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/adpdata/2016-rookie-adp/ (though in the most recent mocks, Shepard went before Doctson and Coleman which is crazy) Personally, if no one in the fantasy pros top 7 fell (Zeke, Treadwell, Doctson, Coleman, Shepard, Thomas, Henry), at pick 11 I'd target Boyd, Howard, Dixon, and Caroo, in that order.
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Aug 7, 2016 02:51
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Spoeank posted:Fleener Yahoo ADP is ridonkulously low and he's the TE to target there. QB with the potential to make TEs good, lack of two legitimate outside options, severe lack of RZ passing options, no Dwayne Allen to siphon targets. What exactly is missing?? He's the closest we have to this year's Eifert e: I feel like his signing in NO was so under the radar that people just don't notice and that will correct itself in the preseason. I, for one, didn't know he was on the Saints until maybe a month or so ago? Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 03:49 on Aug 7, 2016 |
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Aug 7, 2016 03:47
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RVProfootballer posted:Fantasy pros has very good looking rankings imo: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/rookies.php I don't get the hype on Carroo, I'm reading he's a deep threat, but in MIA with a QB that doesn't like to go deep and has two talented WR's in front of him in Landry and Parker, and a third guy in Stills that is a pretty decent big play guy already what am I missing?
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Aug 7, 2016 03:56
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Hixalot posted:Any recommendations for free dynasty rookie advice/rankings? I screwed up and didn't pay much attention to college ball this past year and have picks 11 & 23 in my main leagues two round rookie only draft. Only three weeks to research before draft. My suggestion is Tajae Sharpe. Wait who the gently caress is that you ask? Well he is a crisp route running soft Wr out of Umass drafted by the Titans in the fifth round that got first team reps in OTAs and has continued his first team reps in training camp. He is trending towards actually being a starter so yeah
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Aug 7, 2016 04:08
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Hixalot posted:I don't get the hype on Carroo, I'm reading he's a deep threat, but in MIA with a QB that doesn't like to go deep and has two talented WR's in front of him in Landry and Parker, and a third guy in Stills that is a pretty decent big play guy already what am I missing? Caroo was one of the best wr prospects in this draft. His situation kinda sucks but talent has a way of finding its way to the field
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Aug 7, 2016 04:08
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Spoeank posted:Fleener Yahoo ADP is ridonkulously low and he's the TE to target there.
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Aug 7, 2016 05:03
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Tiptoes posted:Fleener would have to really fall on his face to not produce high end TE1 numbers. I'm as big of a Fleener fan as someone who hates TEs as much as I do can be and I don't think this is impossible. I'd still rather draft him at his ADP over any TE that isn't Gronk
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Aug 7, 2016 06:05
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I'm going to have an embarrassing amount of Jordan Reed shares this year. He provided the same PPG advantage as Gronk and comes at a 3rd/4th round price. It's just too tempting. I always target late round TEs anyway so it should work out.
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Aug 7, 2016 06:36
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Tiptoes posted:I'm going to have an embarrassing amount of Jordan Reed shares this year. He provided the same PPG advantage as Gronk and comes at a 3rd/4th round price. It's just too tempting. I always target late round TEs anyway so it should work out. You'll have an awful lot of roster spots to fill when he gets his brains scrambled (again) by Week 5
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Aug 7, 2016 06:51
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Metapod posted:My suggestion is Tajae Sharpe. Wait who the gently caress is that you ask? Well he is a crisp route running soft Wr out of Umass drafted by the Titans in the fifth round that got first team reps in OTAs and has continued his first team reps in training camp. He is trending towards actually being a starter so yeah Goons I am in leagues with, Metapod doesn't know what he is talking about.
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Aug 7, 2016 08:04
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Tiptoes posted:I'm going to have an embarrassing amount of Jordan Reed shares this year. He provided the same PPG advantage as Gronk and comes at a 3rd/4th round price. It's just too tempting. I always target late round TEs anyway so it should work out. Two years ago: Draft Reed and he dies, pick up Paul Last year: Draft Paul and he dies, pick up Reed This year: ?????????????? (hint it's a pattern)
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Aug 7, 2016 08:13
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Hey guys this is finally the year that Jordan Cameron puts it all back together!!!!! And by it I mean his brain stem
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Aug 7, 2016 08:14
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jabro posted:Goons I am in leagues with, Metapod doesn't know what he is talking about. Big if true
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Aug 7, 2016 14:56
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I think out of all the TE's I'm going to try to target Witten the most. Everyone else besides Gronk and Olsen seem too risky or underwhelming and I'm not paying that high of a price for a TE. Witten should average out to around 75ish receptions and 700ish yards but will come at like an 8th or 9th round cost. I think that's Fleener's ceiling, Travis Kelce only puts up a bit better, Jordan Reed will have donkey brains by week 3, Walker/Ertz will probably cost a bit too much, and Barnidge will crash harder than Dale Earnhardt at Daytona
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Aug 7, 2016 15:37
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I'm enjoying this TE talk because we only have a WR/TE slot and I'm probably not drafting one or I'll pick one up on waivers after week 3.
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Aug 7, 2016 15:53
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Seems like some folks could use some dynasty rankings, so it seems like a good time to post Forever_Peace's 2016 Dynasty Big Board. It's just a big spreadsheet, currently geared to standard leagues. The 2015 spreadsheet is also still there in the 2nd tab if you want a laugh (though I feel pretty good about being high on David Johnson and low on Agholor, though I knew I should have gone with my gut and faded Gordon more). Here are the Columns. Basic Info Name/Pos/Team - self explanatory. Guys I was personally targeting as good value for the pick this year are highlighted (where possible, I try to move up or down into those areas of the draft if the price is right). Age - as of when I initially put the spreadsheet together about a month ago. Bye - 2016 Bye week F_P BigBoard - my own personal rankings for standard dynasty leagues. I generally fade QBs and rookie TEs significantly. DRAFT - an empty column for you to record the picks in your own draft, to see who's left. Measureables pSPARQ-Z_3SA - positional SPARQ z-score, taken from the "3 sigma athlete" website. SPARQ%_PP - SPARQ percentile, taken from the "Player Profiler" website. Playmaker - playmaker score for wide receivers, as derived at Football Outsiders. Arm - arm length (percentile and z-score), as listed in Player Profiler. Dominator - dominator scores and positional z-scores.The methodology originally comes from here and is commonly used at Rotoviz, but I took these values from Player Profiler. Breakout - Breakout age and positional z-score. Z Measureables - the average number of standard deviations away from the mean for each of these metrics (meant to be rough single indicator of college production and physical tools). Draft Draft Round and Pick - when the player was drafted overall. Draft_Pos_Rank - draft rank relative to others at the position (e.g. "4" would be the 4th player drafted at that position, regardless of where exactly in the draft that occurred). Brugler - Brugler's pre-draft rankings (just a second opinion of relative nfl talent). Draft Rank - the average of the actual nfl positional rank and Brugler's positional ranks. Fantasy Rankings FantasyPros - the average dynasty rookie ranking on fantasypros. Updated today, 8/7/16. REDRAFT - the average overall standard redraft rankings on fantasypros. Updated today, 8/7/16. The color codings generally indicate green for "good" and red for "bad". Some of columns are colored to reflect position-by-position comparisons, while others reflect overall comparisons. If you scroll down, the last line of the spreadsheet lists which method was used for the color coding for that particular column. Warning: some of them may be hosed up so look at the numbers.
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Aug 7, 2016 16:29
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Doltos posted:Witten should average out to around 75ish receptions and 700ish yards but will come at like an 8th or 9th round cost. I think that's Fleener's ceiling Ben Watson put up 74-825-6 at 35 years old. How is 75-700-? Fleener's ceiling?
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Aug 7, 2016 17:51
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RVProfootballer posted:Ben Watson put up 74-825-6 at 35 years old. How is 75-700-? Fleener's ceiling? Because Fleener couldn't distinguish himself from a time share with Dwayne Allen even though he had a ton of rapport with Luck from their college days and capped out at 774 yards and 51 receptions for his career year so far.
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Aug 7, 2016 17:56
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