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Ok this is a good start, but I'm craving an old-school elementary school sentence structure diagram
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Aug 9, 2016 19:51
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| # ? May 26, 2024 14:31 |
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Boosted_C5 posted:Cubans are not Mexican, The northern half of the state is culutrally no different from South Carolina or Alabama or Oklahoma. The northern half of the state has practically no one living there. It's all about the 1-4 Corridor and Miami. Florida will go blue.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:52
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Josef K. Sourdust posted:Pro-click. It is so depressing that analysis shows that Trump's tweets expressing positive emotions are almost 100% certain to be staffers. The negative, angry, sarcastic, critical emotions are mostly personally by Trump. Take a look at the link. Really revealing. I'm picturing Trump as Two-Face, with a phone in each hand.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:52
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exquisite tea posted:To be honest those Quinnipiac polls are somewhat middling for Clinton, her margins in Florida and Ohio are both trending below her national polling so if she drops even just a couple points with respect to Trump by election day he could still conceivably win FL or OH. The good news for Clinton is that PA increasingly seems to be trending above the national matchup, so even in a scenario where she and Trump are tied 50-50 on November 8th, the advantage in the state still goes to her. This would be a good analysis, if it was 2012 and the GOP wasn't having to worry about fending off Clinton in GA and AZ.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:52
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Why not? He made clothes in China because it was best for his business why not encourage voter fraud cause it's best for his campaign? If you're going to play by the broken rules then do it you pansy.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:52
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Boosted_C5 posted:Cubans are not Mexican, The northern half of the state is culutrally no different from South Carolina or Alabama or Oklahoma. yeah im aware the northern bog wastes are full of swampbillies and hootenanny peckerwoods like you
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Aug 9, 2016 19:52
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UNSKEW UNSKEW UNSKEW https://twitter.com/JosephMeliambro/status/763083494943850501
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Aug 9, 2016 19:53
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Quinnipiac is a +5 R lean, as well (A-). Net gains from last polls: PA: H+12 OH: H+4 FL: H+4
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Aug 9, 2016 19:53
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah if Pennsylvania and Virginia are straight up not in play, Hillary's base is 269 EVs. Neither is CO
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Aug 9, 2016 19:53
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Boosted_C5 posted:Cubans are not Mexican, The northern half of the state is culutrally no different from South Carolina or Alabama or Oklahoma. Cubans are historically Republican (Bay of Pigs left a bad taste in a lot of mouths), but with younger generations coming up and how Trump went after two Cubans and all the racism that may have dredged up, who knows how they'll go this year.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:54
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https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/763085018163970052
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Aug 9, 2016 19:54
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/763080006968995845 I'm with her.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:54
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JT Jag posted:Ok this is a good start, but I'm craving an old-school elementary school sentence structure diagram 
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Aug 9, 2016 19:55
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Trump bragging about raising $80 million, not a word on what he's spending it on. Like, loving imagine if Hillary bragged about how much money she raised? The press would loving crucify her.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:54
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exquisite tea posted:If he cannot win in Pennsylvania, the MOST Trump could hope for even if he wins OH/FL is somehow fighting to a 269-269 tie by winning New Hampshire and Iowa And Nevada. If he wins OH and FL but cannot win PA, then instead of PA he'd need NH, IA, and NV. This is assuming he holds NC, which should be a safe assumption in any scenario where he performs well enough to win Ohio and FL.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:55
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zoux posted:Interested to see what the Latino cross tabs are in FL, since that doesn't track with those 13% latino vote numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. With PA done, the election's done. Assuming PA and VA are in Clinton's column, she has 279 EV before tossup states are counted. Trump could win OH and FL and it wouldn't help.  (and yes I put UT in a tossup thanks to SURPRISE MORMON NEVERTRUMPERS) Boosted_C5 posted:And Nevada. If he wins OH and FL but cannot win PA, then instead of PA he'd need NH, IA, and NV. Without PA (and NV which was leaning Clinton pre-convention), Trump can win OH/FL/NH/IA and still lose. Trump needs to run the table with EVERY toss up state and a few besides. Lum_ fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 19:55
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Deteriorata posted:Quinnipiac is a +5 R lean, as well (A-). Thanks, I was just digging this up. I was surprised because I thought those were the NBC polls, in which case they would be pretty lukewarm. Edit: Oh, changing voter model would go a very long way toward explaining this shift
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Aug 9, 2016 19:55
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah if Pennsylvania and Virginia are straight up not in play, Hillary's base is 269 EVs. Map with said situation: http://www.270towin.com/maps/zwlEK At best, right now with that map, Trump ties and hopes that the house stays GOP (which is likely)
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Aug 9, 2016 19:55
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If these polls are using the same demographic breakdowns as the last polls then holy poo poo e: nm, its a LV screen. Makes more sense then.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:56
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Despera posted:Neither is CO If you still believe that NH is a battleground state, then Clinton's base are the Kerry states - NH + VA + CO. That's 269 electoral votes. If you think NH isn't winnable for Trump then she's already at 273. If you also think Iowa and Nevada are most likely gonna go blue again that's 281 EVs. Which is to say nothing of Ohio and Florida.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:56
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Protester! Hillary ones are apparently low energy compared to the Bernie ones. Trump still thinks he will get a lot of Bernie voters.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:57
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Deteriorata posted:Quinnipiac is a +5 R lean, as well (A-). 538 has it with only 0.7 R lean.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:57
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/763086405786537984
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Aug 9, 2016 19:57
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i'm the perpetually open-mouthed codger in the bottom left, confused by everything
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Aug 9, 2016 19:57
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Those were likely voter polls? poo poo. Time to give all my money to Palmetto State Armory again.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:57
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Boosted_C5 posted:And Nevada. If he wins OH and FL but cannot win PA, then instead of PA he'd need NH, IA, and NV. Don't count on NC, the democratic base here is pretty motivated given our poo poo lord Governor and the debacle with the voter ID laws.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:58
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Cat Army
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Boosted_C5 posted:Those were likely voter polls? Lol your boy sucks rear end
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Aug 9, 2016 19:58
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The smartest
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Aug 9, 2016 19:59
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Boosted_C5 posted:Those were likely voter polls? This reminds me, everyone invest in gun company stocks before November, the crazies like Boosted will make you rich.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:59
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It appears that Pennsylvania is not going to be close, once again proving that the campaign apparently had a better idea of what was going on then random morons on the internet and that choosing not to go balls in with spending was a wise use of resources.
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Aug 9, 2016 19:59
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Hillary Clinton now apparently going to "double up" our taxes. You can tell Trump's audience doesn't get worked up when he talks numbers.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:00
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Schnorkles posted:It appears that Pennsylvania is not going to be close, once again proving that the campaign apparently had a better idea of what was going on then random morons on the internet and that choosing not to go balls in with spending was a wise use of resources. Hang on buddy, I'm a random moron on the internet and how dare you
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Aug 9, 2016 20:00
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Boosted_C5 posted:Those were likely voter polls? You know what you really want to do, even though you resist it. Just look at those poll numbers, don't they seem a little off to you? In need of a tiny bit of adjustment, or something? You cannot hold out forever.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:01
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pathetic little tramp posted:UNSKEW UNSKEW UNSKEW It's pennsyltucky, not pennsylbama dumbass
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Aug 9, 2016 20:01
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Schnorkles posted:It appears that Pennsylvania is not going to be close, once again proving that the campaign apparently had a better idea of what was going on then random morons on the internet and that choosing not to go balls in with spending was a wise use of resources. Clinton did eventually do a major ad buy in Pennsylvania, although it was obvious they would do this eventually because a) there's an important Senate race going on, and b) Trump's only clear path to victory involved Pennsylvania. Trump could win the popular vote by 1% on election day and still lose Pennsylvania by a lot at this point, that's how quickly it's getting away from him.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:02
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WampaLord posted:This reminds me, everyone invest in gun company stocks before November, the crazies like Boosted will make you rich. Nothing crazy about it, we have audio of Hillary Clinton in private railing against the NRA, railing against Heller & McDonald, and railing against Bush for letting the dumb "ASSAULT WEAPON" ban lapse and promising to come hard after 2A. If the current polls are what things look like in November and the Dems have a chance to repeat '09-'11 with control of everything, you'd be a fool not to buy as many AR lowers and 30 round mags as possible before January. These loving psychos are going to war against the second (and also first) amendments if they get the power to do so.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:02
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something abruptly made me remember this section from one of HSTs pieces about running Freak Power candidacies for local officequote:The possibility of victory can be a heavy millstone around the neck of any political candidate who might prefer, in his heart, to spend his main energies on a series of terrifying, whiplash assaults on everything the voters hold dear. There are harsh echoes of the Magic Christian in this technique: The candidate first creates an impossible psychic maze, then he drags the voters into it and flails them constantly with gibberish and rude shocks. This was Mailer's technique, and it got him 55,000 votes in a city of 10 million people - but in truth it is more a form of vengeance than electoral politics. Which is not to say that it can't be effective, in Aspen or anywhere else, but as a political strategy it is tainted by a series of disastrous defeats. In any event, the Magic Christian concept is one side of the "new politics" coin. It doesn't work, but it's fun... unlike that coin's other face that emerged in the presidential campaign of Gene McCarthy and Bobby Kennedy in 1968. In both cases, we saw establishment candidates claiming conversion to some newer and younger state of mind (or political reality) that would make them more in tune with a newer, younger, and weirder electorate that had previously called them useless.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:03
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Boosted_C5 posted:Nothing crazy about it, we have audio of Hillary Clinton in private railing against the NRA, railing against Heller & McDonald, and railing against Bush for letting the dumb "ASSAULT WEAPON" ban lapse and promising to come hard after 2A. Seems kind of silly to spend all that money when you're just going to have to hand all your panic guns over to the Government anyway.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:04
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Boosted_C5 posted:Nothing crazy about it, we have audio of Hillary Clinton in private railing against the NRA, railing against Heller & McDonald, and railing against Bush for letting the dumb "ASSAULT WEAPON" ban lapse and promising to come hard after 2A. First amendment? Pray tell how.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:04
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Boosted_C5 posted:Nothing crazy about it, we have audio of Hillary Clinton in private railing against the NRA, railing against Heller & McDonald, and railing against Bush for letting the dumb "ASSAULT WEAPON" ban lapse and promising to come hard after 2A. How many elections have you been telling yourself this, be honest
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Aug 9, 2016 20:04
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