Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

Pyromancer: Apr 29, 2011; This man must look upon the fire, smell of it, warm his hands by it, stare into its heart

Nenonen posted:

I can't imagine the forces in Transnistria to amount to much, despite the big scary red patch. They're deployed against Moldova, not Ukraine.

From the patch size and shape I'd say this "intel" fellow doesn't even know where Transnistria actually is.

# ? Aug 9, 2016 21:07

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:04

chitoryu12: Apr 24, 2014

Palpek posted:

Trump's real/perceived connections with Russia might be his actual Achilles heel. If it becomes a focus in the campaign it could turn the tide.

As far as all the polls can tell, the tide was turned against Trump from the start. He's only further shot himself in the foot by being so extreme and crazy as to alienate virtually every relatively moderate Republican (and even some hard right conservatives who correctly think that the insane clown is totally unqualified for the presidency). If Trump actually becomes the president, something has gone seriously wrong with our country.

# ? Aug 9, 2016 21:11

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Palpek posted:

Trump's real/perceived connections with Russia might be his actual Achilles heel. If it becomes a focus in the campaign it could turn the tide.

chitoryu12 posted:

As far as all the polls can tell, the tide was turned against Trump from the start. He's only further shot himself in the foot by being so extreme and crazy as to alienate virtually every relatively moderate Republican (and even some hard right conservatives who correctly think that the insane clown is totally unqualified for the presidency). If Trump actually becomes the president, something has gone seriously wrong with our country.

Yeah, turning the tide would imply Trump making ground again. I mean, the Clinton campaign is basically turning into a national Democrats campaign as opposed to a presidential one, because Trump's chances of winning are minuscule unless something major happens. Clinton isn't trying to simply win the presidency, she feels confident enough to push for getting a friendly senate to go with it.

# ? Aug 9, 2016 21:22

GABA ghoul: Oct 29, 2011

chitoryu12 posted:

If Trump actually becomes the president, something has gone seriously wrong with our country.

Queue It's always sunny intro music and "Donald Trump becomes president" title card

# ? Aug 9, 2016 22:04

Flavahbeast: Jul 21, 2001

waitwhatno posted:

Queue It's always sunny intro music and "Donald Trump becomes president" title card

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6M_2fTACeI

close enough

# ? Aug 9, 2016 22:24

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Yeah, turning the tide would imply Trump making ground again. I mean, the Clinton campaign is basically turning into a national Democrats campaign as opposed to a presidential one, because Trump's chances of winning are minuscule unless something major happens. Clinton isn't trying to simply win the presidency, she feels confident enough to push for getting a friendly senate to go with it.

Trump's so bad that he's making new battleground states out of normally Republican safe areas. Including the aforementioned North Carolina, a state that elected Jesse Helms, you have Georgia turning purple due to Trump and Johnson's libertarian campaign giving Hilary a majority.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 00:34

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe

http://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-crimea-war-2016-8

quote:

MARYINKA, Ukraine -- Framed by a tiny cutout in the fortified bunker, this particular piece of no-man's land is tinted a blood-reddish orange by the setting summer sun.

It's hot as hell, and it's about to get hotter. When the sun goes down, the guns start blazing. And all that separates the men at their triggers is a grassy patch of land the size of a soccer field that is heavily mined. If you're a Ukrainian soldier here, you don't need binoculars to observe the enemy -- you just look in his direction.

It starts with a single shot from a Kalashnikov: Ziiip. Then another: Ziiip. And three more: Ziiip. Ziiip. Ziiip. Each shot whizzes dangerously closer. In the time it takes to boil an egg, the situation escalates as the rifles are joined by .50-caliber machine guns, mortars, and rocket-propelled grenades that explode with hollow thuds against the earth or cottages where the soldiers eat and sleep, showering everything with shrapnel.

Within an hour, shells from howitzers and tanks -- and eventually surface-to-surface Grad missiles, whose name is Russian for "hail" -- begin pummeling the scarred steppe.

Reload. Fire. Repeat
The "disco," as the soldiers and the few residents left in this forsaken town call it, is in full effect. The relative calm that dawn brings seems a lifetime away. All are at the mercy of the darkness.

This is eastern Ukraine 28 months after the start of a conflict that once seemed unthinkable, and a year and a half after the signing of a second cease-fire deal, known as Minsk 2, that was supposed to bring lasting peace to this war-torn edge of Europe and reintegrate it with the rest of Ukraine.

But the armistice is unraveling fast as fighting between Ukrainian government forces and Russia-backed separatists has escalated to levels not seen since more furious phases of the conflict in the Donbas -- where the separatists hold parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions -- in 2014 and 2015. Casualties, both civilian and military, are mounting.

War Footing
The number of civilian casualties recorded by the United Nations nearly doubled in June to 69, including 12 deaths, and rose again in July, when eight civilians were killed and 65 wounded.

"The escalation of hostilities and the accompanying civilian casualties in eastern Ukraine over the last two months are very worrying," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein said on August 3. "Civilians are once again having to flee to improvised bomb shelters in their basements, sometimes overnight, with increasing frequency -- the price of the cease-fire violations is too high for the women, men, and children in eastern Ukraine."

The UN said that 57 percent of those casualties were the result of "mortar fire, cannons, howitzers, and tanks" -- weapons banned under the Minsk deal.

When combatants and civilians are included, the toll of deaths documented by the UN Human Rights Office since the outbreak of war in April 2014 had reached 9,553 by July 31.

But the UN says the real number of casualties may be higher, and the International Crisis Group said in a July report that "there is little doubt that the death toll is significantly higher than either side admits."

The UN has urged all sides to respect the cease-fire provisions, to remove combatants and weapons from civilian areas, and to scrupulously implement the Minsk agreements -- successive cease-fire and settlement deals signed in September 2014 and February 2015.

But there are signs of both sides going back to a war footing: Kyiv is on high alert and has deployed special-forces units and battle-hardened battalions to the front, while Russia has reportedly amassed large amounts of military hardware in Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula it seized from Ukraine in March 2014.

After the leader of separatists in the Luhansk region, Igor Plotnitsky, was injured in an apparent assassination attempt on August 6, separatists were ordered to be on full combat readiness.

Peace Deal In Jeopardy
"The Minsk agreements have met their end," Vyacheslav Vlasenko, a commander of government forces who is known as "the Owl," told RFE/RL. Soldiers in his Donbas Ukraine unit, a volunteer battalion that split off and was brought under the control of the Ukrainian armed forces, nodded in agreement.

They are preparing for what they see as an imminent return to full-scale war -- something that is seen as a distinct possibility on both sides of the "demarcation line" in the Donbas.

"The situation remains tense, and at any moment it could break out and escalate into full-fledged clashes," Denis Pushilin, the leader of separatists in the Donetsk region, warned last week.

Puffing on a cigarette inside his Maryinka operating base, the raspy-voiced Vlasenko leaned over a situation map marked with blue and black ink and traces his finger over the locations where fighting is the heaviest -- these days, pretty much everywhere along the narrow frontier that separates his men from the Russia-backed fighters. In Maryinka, it is especially heavy near the bases of two old coal-mine slag heaps nicknamed "crocodile" and "tits" because of their shapes.

To highlight the recent escalation of violence, Vlasenko slid a casualty list for the past 49 days beneath a flickering lamp. It listed: 112 firefights; 45 wounded soldiers, including 19 from shrapnel and three from bullets; 18 troops with contusions; two with traumatic amputations; two with bone fractures; and one crushed to death by debris.

For the Ukrainian Army, July was the deadliest month since

August 2015. At least 42 servicemen were killed and 181 wounded, according to statistics provided by Andriy Lysenko, military spokesman for President Petro Poroshenko's administration.

Some days the casualties were particularly bad. On July 19, Ukraine reported seven soldiers had been killed and 14 injured. On July 24, the military said six more died in clashes. On August 6, three servicemen died and four were wounded.

On the Internet, the Ukrainian military's daily situation map is lit up by explosion markers up and down the snaking 500-kilometer contact line, indicating pitched battles.

On the ground, unarmed monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) say both sides are violating the cease-fire on a regular basis. The group's nonpartisan, no-nonsense reports have shown that a steady increase in fighting began in June, with the number of cease-fire violations rising from dozens to hundreds daily and the use of heavy weapons on the front lines becoming more frequent.

The reports also paint a picture of a growing hostility toward members of the OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) on the part of government troops and separatist fighters. In a July 30 report, the OSCE described members being surrounded by Donetsk separatist fighters who trained their rifles at them while one "made a 'cut throat' sign" and took photographs of their vehicles and the drivers.

On August 2, a fighter in an unmarked uniform at a known Ukrainian military position chambered a round into his submachine gun, flicked off its safety, put his finger on the trigger, and aimed it at a monitor.

The OSCE mission has faced threats before, and has even had its members kidnapped. It has also faced criticism from both warring sides for not doing more.

The monitors acknowledge substantial limits to the effectiveness of their mission: They do not operate at night, meaning that much of the fighting is heard but not seen, and it is all but impossible to determine whether Russian soldiers and arms are crossing into Ukraine because they only have a mandate to observe at two border crossings.

At this point in the conflict, Vlasenko said, the OSCE was "useless."

A Deadly 'Game'
Before the war, Maryinka -- like many towns that have found themselves on the front line -- was a sleepy, rural collection of cottages. It lies just 28 kilometers east of Donetsk, the regional capital that is now a separatist stronghold. People like Alina Kosse, 58, raised their children and tended their gardens here, most living modest but unruffled lives.

"It was so peaceful and everyone was friendly," Kosse said while cooking a pot of borscht and a cabbage-wrapped meat-and-rice mixture to feed to Ukrainian soldiers passing through on their way to their forward positions.

For the past two years, Maryinka has been caught in the war's crossfire. The first heavy battles were fought here in July 2014, and the separatists controlled the town before the Ukrainian Army managed to regain its footing.

Much of the heart of the town was destroyed in the fighting.

The front line cuts right up against Maryinka's northern edge. On the other side is separatist-held Donetsk's Petrovskiy district.

Neighbors whose homes are a few minutes' walk apart haven't seen each other in more than two years: It can take as long as a transcontinental flight to cross a heavily guarded makeshift frontier bristling with fighters, checkpoints, tank traps, and land mines.

And the war remains so fluid here that sometimes it's hard to know which road belongs to whom. Possession of them can change daily, and one wrong turn can land you in enemy territory.

There is one road in Maryinka that nobody dares to tread. Dubbed the "road of death" and "snipers' alley," it dips and winds into a shallow valley overlooked by separatist positions perched atop slag heaps and on the upper stories of a line of buildings, making it easy to gun down anyone or anything that tries to pass.

Natasha, a friend of Kosse's who came over for a chat and a bite to eat, said the separatist snipers do not discriminate. "They assume whoever uses that road is a combatant, so they shoot to kill everything," she said. "It's like a game for them, to shoot at us like we're rats."

Fight And Sacrifice
Among some in Ukraine's government and many on the front line, the spike in fighting has fed a growing desire -- driven by anxiety about what Russia's military might do next, frustration over the failure of the Minsk deal to end the conflict, and anger at the mounting battlefield deaths -- to wrest back control of separatist-held territory by force rather than diplomacy.

"My soul hurts for each of the lives of our soldiers sacrificed for Ukraine," Viktor Muzhenko, the commander of Ukraine's armed forces, said after seven soldiers were killed on July 19. "There will be an adequate response."

Oleksandr Turchynov, chief of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said the same day that if the situation continued to deteriorate he would consider imposing martial law.

President Poroshenko has since poured cold water on the idea, warning that international financial backers would freeze much-needed assistance for Ukraine -- which is struggling with economic troubles in addition to the war in the east and the aftermath of Russia's armed takeover of Crimea. But not since the conflict began in spring 2014 has the issue of martial law and greater security measures been so seriously discussed.

"This war is a bulls**t," one soldier, who asked that his name not be used because he did not want his commander to view him as insubordinate, said in English.

Switching to Russian, he said: "The Ukrainian Army is stronger than it was [at the start of the war], and we are ready to die if it is necessary. I say, let's make this sacrifice for our country, for its future."

Kyiv appears to be listening, at least with one ear.

In June, it put its strongest volunteer fighting battalions on a war footing, sending them back to the front lines to repulse separatist attacks.

Among them -- and deployed for the first time since its inception a year ago -- was Ukraine's 10th Brigade, which is comprised of a few thousand highly skilled soldiers from three units: Donbas Ukraine, the Aidar Battalion, and the 8th Battalion. All are positioned around Donetsk.

While they haven't made a big collective move, dozens of Ukrainian soldiers I spoke with said their commanders had been more aggressive than in recent months.

The Russia Factor
Inside the Donbas Ukraine post, a fly buzzed by the flickering light before getting stuck in dangling fly paper, a soldier with a boyish face and a Cossack-style Mohawk haircut scanned live cameras trained on separatist positions. Lighting up another cigarette, Vlasenko explained that he had been a more permissive commander as of late.

"If it's just small arms, like rifles, we don't shoot back [at the separatists]," he said. "But if it's rockets or something heavier, we respond with our own artillery. Or when I see that they are shooting at the homes of noncombatants, then I give the order to shoot at them. When they have killed or wounded one of our guys, I give the command to open fire with everything we've got."

Vlasenko added that his soldiers were allowed, in some cases, to take the first shot. "When we see them bring new equipment to the front, like they brought a tank yesterday, we open fire" to prevent them from using it, he said.

"We are not ruled by a desire to kill everyone standing on the other side of the line. Our aim is to stabilize the situation in Maryinka," he continued. But like the troops he commands, he is growing exasperated by the daily skirmishes that don't bring the end of the war any closer.

"Show [the journalists] our recent work," Vlasenko said to the soldier with the Mohawk, who switched from the live feed to a video shot on July 16 that shows Ukrainian artillery pounding what is said to be separatist positions.

When he closes his eyes, Vlasenko said, he daydreams about being given the order for all 69,000 Ukrainian troops Kyiv says are currently in the eastern war zone to push east to Donetsk and Luhansk -- and beyond. "I would like to see a parade of Ukrainian troops marching on Red Square," he says in deadpan tone.

Only then, he said, could Ukraine live in peace and he go back to what he was doing before the war: "lying on the sofa."

Dreams of Red Square aside, a major deterrent to any notion of a new Ukrainian offensive in the Donbas is the possibility that it would spur President Vladimir Putin's Russia -- which Kyiv and NATO say has poured money, soldiers, and weapons into Ukraine during the conflict and has a large force stationed just across -- to intervene with devastating effect.

Even without provocation from Kyiv, there are concerns in Ukraine that Russia could be gearing up for a new offensive. Crimean Tatar activists reported on August 7 that armed checkpoints were being hastily erected on the annexed peninsula and large concentrations of Russian hardware massed in northern Crimea, near mainland Ukraine. On the same day, Ukraine's border-guard service said that Russian authorities had blocked all entry to Crimea by road for several hours.

Ukraine got a deadly taste of what Russia's forces could do in the Donetsk region town of Ilovaysk in August 2014, when hundreds of Ukrainian troops were massacred after being surrounded, and again in February 2015 in Debaltseve, on a key highway between Donetsk and Luhansk. The battles dealt devastating blows to the Ukrainian military, in terms of human lives and morale, and bolstered the confidence of the Russia-backed separatists.

Russia and the separatists, meanwhile, may have their own motives for escalating the fighting now -- and their own reasons not to take it too far. In 2014, there were strong signs that Putin hoped to take control of a huge swath of southern Ukraine from the Donbas to Crimea and the Black Sea port city of Odesa -- an area that Russian leaders began to call Novorossia, or "New Russia" -- but that plan unraveled after it failed to catch on beyond Donetsk and Luhansk.

For Moscow today, disincentives for a major new offensive by the Russia-backed separatists include the prospect of stepped-up Western sanctions, fears of overstretching the military, and the ire Putin would face across much of the world if he ignited a full-scale war in Europe.

Many analysts say that for now, at least, the Kremlin wants to use the conflict it helped whip up in the Donbas to destabilize Ukraine, bleed its economy, and keep it from getting too close to NATO and the European Union.

'Just Give The Order'
While Vlasenko holds the line in Maryinka and awaits orders, some are taking it upon themselves to push, ever so slowly, forward.

About 25 kilometers south of Maryinka, in sprawling field of wild grass outside the village of Solodke, the Aidar Battalion is now dug in just 300 meters from separatist positions after making a rare forward push eastward 1 kilometer in May.

They paid a steep price for the advance, as separatists pounded them with mortars and heavy artillery, destroying several vehicles and other equipment, as well as the warehouse that stored them. Commanders say they also lost soldiers in the push and in battles since, but they will not disclose how many for fear of appearing weak to their enemy.

A muscular middle-aged fighter who goes by the nom de guerre Musician -- a reference not to proficiency with an instrument but to his use of a grenade launcher beneath the barrel of his rifle -- said that those sacrifices would not be in vain, and that he and his comrades were eager to retake the separatist-held section of the Donbas by force.

"Just give the order," he said.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 05:38

Spacehams: Jun 3, 2007; sometimes people are mean, and I think they should try being nice; Grimey Drawer

This is ominous. The FSB is claiming they thwarted an attempt by Ukrainian special forces to conduct "terrorist attacks" in Crimea.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:13

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Ukraine is repeating the errors of Poland in 1939 and leaving Russia with no alternative options

# ? Aug 10, 2016 14:27

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Optimus Prime Rib posted:

This is ominous. The FSB is claiming they thwarted an attempt by Ukrainian special forces to conduct "terrorist attacks" in Crimea.

Here's a summary of the information that's out there, unclear if it's legit or Russian bullshit at this point, more through a lack of corroborating evidence than anything

https://medium.com/@DFRLab/https-medium-com-dfrlab-competing-narratives-6ff353366f70#.4jbnw72l4

# ? Aug 10, 2016 17:30

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Question I'm wondering is, why now? Does Putin have no faith in Trump winning the election and rolling back the sanctions and NATO that he'd rather go ahead and press ahead with expanding the war on Ukraine?

# ? Aug 10, 2016 17:35

Nitrox: Jul 5, 2002

Young Freud posted:

Question I'm wondering is, why now? Does Putin have no faith in Trump winning the election and rolling back the sanctions and NATO that he'd rather go ahead and press ahead with expanding the war on Ukraine?

His entire invasion campaign has been about pushing forward, no matter how small the steps.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 17:44

Scaramouche: Mar 26, 2001; SPACE FACE! SPACE FACE!

He thinks (rightly) everyone is watching the Olympics again

# ? Aug 10, 2016 17:48

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Scaramouche posted:

He thinks (rightly) everyone is watching the Olympics again

Since Russia's athletes can't go to Rio, they might as well go on vacation.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 17:59

Lucy Heartfilia: May 31, 2012

Russia still better than American imperialist pigs.

Signed,
the German left.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 18:01

Spacehams: Jun 3, 2007; sometimes people are mean, and I think they should try being nice; Grimey Drawer

Brown Moses posted:

Here's a summary of the information that's out there, unclear if it's legit or Russian bullshit at this point, more through a lack of corroborating evidence than anything

https://medium.com/@DFRLab/https-medium-com-dfrlab-competing-narratives-6ff353366f70#.4jbnw72l4

That's a great link, thanks. Putin jumping to promise a "response" rather than investigating what actually happened, while predictable, is quite disconcerting. It seems an awful lot like they're crafting a narrative for some sort of intervention, especially with the recent Russian military buildup in Crimea.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 18:01

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Brown Moses posted:

Here's a summary of the information that's out there, unclear if it's legit or Russian bullshit at this point, more through a lack of corroborating evidence than anything

https://medium.com/@DFRLab/https-medium-com-dfrlab-competing-narratives-6ff353366f70#.4jbnw72l4

It does seem odd with all of the information posted to social media before it makes it to the news when something like this happens that suddenly there was a terrorist plot from Ukraine to attack Crimea, and Russian media were the first to hear about it. There's been a build-up of Russian military in a number of locations on the Ukrainian and Belarusian border, as if preparing for an invasion for months. The official word from Moscow is this is a show of force to NATO's provocation in Poland and the Baltics.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 18:13

Cat Mattress: Jul 14, 2012; by Cyrano4747

How convenient of Ukraine to wait until Russia has moved heavy military materiel in Crimea to perform some (obviously failed) provocative sabotage attempt.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 18:34

ass struggle: Dec 25, 2012; by Athanatos

I'm wondering what the objective of a full-scale invasion, which I still find highly unlikely, would be. The way I see it there are 3 possible objectives for Russian forces if they do use the Crimea border clash as a justification to invade.

The most likely would be something like the intervention in Georgia in 2008. A limited campaign directed at militarily defeating the Ukrainian forces in Donbass and pushing them back to create buffer zones around the breakaway republics and possibly Crimea. This will ideally be a quick enough campaign that it will leave Europe and the U.S. indecisive about supporting Ukraine and render any support that is sent moot.

These last two possibilities are even more unlikely in my mind.

First, is the annexation of the coastal land south-east of the Dnieper River, thus establishing borders that line up with the often cited ukraineelectionmap.jpg, this seems unlikely to me because this campaign would probably take a long time, and as fighting moved inward would eliminate Russia's advantage of naval supremacy.

Last option would be a complete march to Kyiv. I think that would probably be the only scenario that would be unwinnable for the Russians.

It seems like a lot of the equipment being moved around in Crimea is from naval infantry units, a lot of those BMPs seem to have snorkels. I think this points to a mobilization of Crimea rather than the staging of an invasion, which would require much more troops than those stationed on the peninsula.

ass struggle fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Aug 10, 2016

# ? Aug 10, 2016 18:40

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

https://twitter.com/rbc_channel/status/763407610049462272

# ? Aug 10, 2016 18:42

Discendo Vox: Mar 21, 2013; We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

A major motivation would be to serve as a lesson to other countries that are considering NATO. "This is what we'll do to you."

# ? Aug 10, 2016 18:52

Lucy Heartfilia: May 31, 2012

Brent crude is falling again. Gotta do something to distract people from the crumbling economy?

# ? Aug 10, 2016 19:04

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

slavatuvs posted:

I'm wondering what the objective of a full-scale invasion, which I still find highly unlikely, would be. The way I see it there are 3 possible objectives for Russian forces if they do use the Crimea border clash as a justification to invade.

The most likely would be something like the intervention in Georgia in 2008. A limited campaign directed at militarily defeating the Ukrainian forces in Donbass and pushing them back to create buffer zones around the breakaway republics and possibly Crimea. This will ideally be a quick enough campaign that it will leave Europe and the U.S. indecisive about supporting Ukraine and render any support that is sent moot.

Yep, if they do decide to do something, which is rather likely, I think this is exactly how it'd play out. They won't even need to fire a shot at first, as a lot of the "disputed" territory isn't under Ukrainian control anyway, so they'll just move in there and say "what you gonna do about it" to anyone who has a problem with that.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 19:06

A Pale Horse: Jul 29, 2007

They want what they've wanted from the beginning, which is a land bridge to Crimea because supplying it as things stand now is costly and inefficient. They wouldn't mind having Odessa either I imagine.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 19:15

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Internet blackout in Northern Crimea since August 7.

https://twitter.com/DynResearch/status/763002314940645376

# ? Aug 10, 2016 20:09

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

If Russia does something now, I have to imagine part of the reason will be to get it done before the US election. Not everything is about us, but Hillary's definitely more of a hawk than Obama.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 20:57

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's a piece another project I'm working on has put out about the OSCE drone monitoring of Minsk 2 violations. Visit for the gifs and sliders, stay for the content
https://medium.com/dfrlab/jamming-the-eyes-in-the-sky-over-ukraines-east-5dc10f136cc5#.3ovu97ls1

# ? Aug 10, 2016 21:00

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Sinteres posted:

If Russia does something now, I have to imagine part of the reason will be to get it done before the US election. Not everything is about us, but Hillary's definitely more of a hawk than Obama.

Definitely. I'm guessing that Trump is doing poorly to their expectations, so it's now "Plan B" and take what they can grab before Hillary gets into office.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 21:05

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Can't post for 2 hours!; Soiled Meat

Young Freud posted:

Question I'm wondering is, why now? Does Putin have no faith in Trump winning the election and rolling back the sanctions and NATO that he'd rather go ahead and press ahead with expanding the war on Ukraine?

Even if Trump won, it's no guarantee of a change in foreign policy, since Trump wouldn't likely run anything personally. And the constituencies of GOP politicians with actual stakes in the game are overwhelmingly anti-Putin.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 21:36

Spacehams: Jun 3, 2007; sometimes people are mean, and I think they should try being nice; Grimey Drawer

If anything, it's more likely the timing would have something to do with the seasons than US domestic politics. Winter (snow) and Spring (mud) are terrible times to launch large scale military operations in Russia/Ukraine.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 21:39

axelord: Dec 28, 2012; College Slice

Young Freud posted:

Definitely. I'm guessing that Trump is doing poorly to their expectations, so it's now "Plan B" and take what they can grab before Hillary gets into office.

I think the weather maybe a bigger factor. It's summer now better time to launch an attack then in the fall or winter.

# ? Aug 10, 2016 21:41

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Oh hell, come the gently caress on, Russia...

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/763471607910260737

# ? Aug 10, 2016 22:54

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

Young Freud posted:

Oh hell, come the gently caress on, Russia...

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/763471607910260737

Mark Ames was pushing that narrative on Twitter this morning. I really don't understand why some leftists love Putin so much.

https://twitter.com/MarkAmesExiled/status/763377772739780608

# ? Aug 10, 2016 23:12

AceRimmer: Mar 18, 2009

Sinteres posted:

I really don't understand why some leftists love Putin so much.

Amerikkka bad, anyone opposing it must therefore be good

# ? Aug 10, 2016 23:58

Best Friends: Nov 4, 2011

Mark Ames is hard to pin down. He's a leftist sure but he's also a crazy person. He's lived his life trying to be hunter s Thompson.

# ? Aug 11, 2016 01:22

Mr Luxury Yacht: Apr 16, 2012

AceRimmer posted:

Amerikkka bad, anyone opposing it must therefore be good

I don't like bad thing so I'm going to do worse thing no gently caress YOU dad.

# ? Aug 11, 2016 01:38

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

Best Friends posted:

Mark Ames is hard to pin down. He's a leftist sure but he's also a crazy person. He's lived his life trying to be hunter s Thompson.

He has a lot of the right enemies, and I like the War Nerd, but Ames seems pretty personally loathsome and is so far up Putin's rear end that he defends Trump from accusations that he's too close to Putin by calling his critics Russophobes and McCarthyites. I'm sympathetic to the realpolitik view that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a natural response to continual Western encroachment on what they at least see as their sphere of influence, and to the idea that the West (even if by accident) did a lot to gently caress over Russia in the 90's, but it's still really weird to see someone lurch to the extreme contrarian position that right-wing Russian nationalism and militarism is somehow good instead of just an inevitable consequence. He really strikes me as one of the most bitterly nihilistic people I've encountered on social media.

# ? Aug 11, 2016 02:32

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Sinteres posted:

He has a lot of the right enemies, and I like the War Nerd, but Ames seems pretty personally loathsome and is so far up Putin's rear end that he defends Trump from accusations that he's too close to Putin by calling his critics Russophobes and McCarthyites. I'm sympathetic to the realpolitik view that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a natural response to continual Western encroachment on what they at least see as their sphere of influence, and to the idea that the West (even if by accident) did a lot to gently caress over Russia in the 90's, but it's still really weird to see someone lurch to the extreme contrarian position that right-wing Russian nationalism and militarism is somehow good instead of just an inevitable consequence. He really strikes me as one of the most bitterly nihilistic people I've encountered on social media.

Granted, bitter nihilism is probably a fairer response to the issue than simply being pro-Putin, pretty much very side involved seems to be trapped into a unsolvable morass of hatred.

# ? Aug 11, 2016 02:52

Pussy Cartel: Jun 26, 2011; Lipstick Apathy

Best Friends posted:

Mark Ames is hard to pin down. He's a leftist sure but he's also a crazy person. He's lived his life trying to be hunter s Thompson.

I loved his writing for NSFWCorp, but he always came across as being something of a nihilistic rear end in a top hat more interested in bringing down AmeriKKKa than in actually creating a better world.

# ? Aug 11, 2016 02:55

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:04

AceRimmer: Mar 18, 2009

Pussy Cartel posted:

I loved his writing for NSFWCorp, but he always came across as being something of a nihilistic rear end in a top hat more interested in bringing down AmeriKKKa than in actually creating a better world.

And then there's all the horrible misogyny

# ? Aug 11, 2016 03:23

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

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