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ReidRansom
Oct 25, 2004


Who is the founder of ISIS?

1) al-Baghdadi
2) Obama
3) Geb/Nut
4) Mallory Archer

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Slaan
Mar 16, 2009



ASHERAH DEMANDS I FEAST, I VOTE FOR A FEAST OF FLESH
Hidden choice- all of them

Brute Squad
Dec 20, 2006

Laughter is the sun that drives winter from the human race

I'm in. I'd like to see Missouri done, but that's just because I live here.

If we go Missouri, I'd suggest doing a Governor question. Our current one (D) is term-limited, and the party primaries just ended. We could get the first poll out on it. Koster(D) is our current AG, and Greitens(R) likes to shoot miniguns in commercials.

There's also a few ballot measures:
https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_2016_ballot_measures

Interesting ones are: CA 2 is a campaign finance limit amendment, CA4 is a prohibition on new sales/use taxes on currently untaxed items, and CA6 is a voter ID amendment.

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate
Do Kansas instead and lets see how they feel about Brownback

Plexiwatt
Sep 6, 2002

by exmarx
Keep in mind that there's a very outside chance that a sufficiently eyeball-catching poll (for the fifth bonus question) may actually get news media interest and generate its own momentum :getin:

KIM JONG TRILL
Nov 29, 2006

GIN AND JUCHE
Louisiana could be an interesting option, too. David Diaper Vitter is retiring from his Senate seat. Also David Duke is running.

ReidRansom
Oct 25, 2004


Plexiwatt posted:

Keep in mind that there's a very outside chance that a sufficiently eyeball-catching poll (for the fifth bonus question) may actually get news media interest and generate its own momentum :getin:

That's at least part of the idea. And why we need good questioncraft.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

ReidRansom posted:

That's at least part of the idea. And why we need good questioncraft.

That's why I vote we do the "how many S's are in Mississippi" question if we do MS.


"Shocking! You won't believe how many people in Mississippi don't know how it's spelled!"

Trillary Flinton
Aug 3, 2016
I will definitely contribute 10 or 20.

Pappyland posted:

This, or something pushing likely to bait Trump and surrounding the amount of money he has - perhaps something like:

"Would you be more or less likely to vote for Donald Trump if his assets were to be valued at under 300 million dollars?"

Holy poo poo yes nothing will piss him off more than people thinking he's broke.

Trillary Flinton fucked around with this message at 03:49 on Aug 12, 2016

Quovak
Feb 2, 2009

See, the problem with online communication is that you can't feel my beard through the HTML.
I don't think 2-way and 4-way are worth including separately. Jill Stein has no meaningful base of support, especially in a deep red state, and Johnson votes are probably the same as Undecided in a 2-way. The only real reason to do that is for interesting crosstabs (e.g. black voters preferring Stein to Trump), but we've already seen those results from other polls, so the novelty is mostly gone.

We obviously need a presidential question of some kind (I think 2-way is more meaningful, but either is fine), and I love the idea of a confederate flag question if we polled MS. Other potentially interesting questions:


-Regardless of which candidate you personally support, who do you believe is most likely to win the presidential election (I imagine this will mostly correlate with who you plan to vote for, but it would be fascinating to see if there are differences)

-Would you be more or less likely to vote Republican in this election if Ted Cruz were the nominee (an answer of no demoralizes Cruz, while an answer of yes demoralizes Trump and exacerbates party tensions)

-Would you be more or less likely to vote for [Person running for congress / state office] if s/he endorsed Donald Trump? (either answer jeopardizes the tightrope most Republicans are walking)

-Do you believe the economy is generally in better or worse shape than when Barack Obama took office? (interesting to find what % of people flatly deny reality, and it has a slight push poll / comedy aspect to it without being scummy)

-Would you support a constitutional amendment aimed at overturning Citizens United? (legitimately interested in how this would fare in a deep red state)


MO and MS both seem like good options. Missouri would be a good choice since it has more EVs and we could ask about the governor race, but Mississippi is deeper red and less likely to be polled, so the results we get could have more impact. Idaho and Montana would be mildly interesting since they'll definitely never be polled, but they're also so small that nobody's going to care. Personally, I vote MS.

I also love The Rokstar's suggestions, and agree that someone (Reid?) should take ultimate responsibility in compiling the poll rather than leaving it up to the hivemind.

yoctoontologist
Sep 11, 2011

In Mississippi we could ask about the Religious Liberty Accommodations Act/HB 1523. No one has done any opinion polling on that as far as I could find out. Not sure if there's anything else interesting going on at the state level there this year.

A question about that or Citizens United might benefit from another question along the lines of "How familiar are you with [thing]?"

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate
Trump just called everyone in Utah losers on Twitter, we should poll them.

Yoshifan823
Feb 19, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

sbaldrick posted:

Trump just called everyone in Utah losers on Twitter, we should poll them.

Utah has the most potential for embarrassing Trump performance now that IN, SC, and TX are out. Do a three way with Johnson, a two way, a question about the senate race (featuring the first trans candidate for US Senate, Misty Snow), a question about the likability/recognizance of that dumb new "Never Trump" candidate", and something else fun, maybe a question about BYU entering the Big 12.

edit: There's also a governor race up in 2016 but it's pretty boring compared to Gary Johnson, Misty Snow, or that other dumbass. (Evan Mcmullin)

Chef Boyardeez Nuts
Sep 9, 2011

The more you kick against the pricks, the more you suffer.
I would love for a demographic crosstab question on the respondant's hand size (below average, average, above average)

The Aardvark
Aug 19, 2013


I'm not at politically savvy as most goons, but I'll put $50 to this noble cause.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
Whether or not we do both Clinton/Trump and Multiple candidates, or just multiple candidates, I move that we do not include Jill Stein at all. If we want to do a 4 way let us replace Jill Stein with Harambe. The reasons are that Jill Stein sucks and isn't going to get any votes anyway, so why not annoy her while leaving respondents the hallowed comedy option. If we want no comedy option, then instead include the #NeverTrump guy who suddenly decided to jump into the race instead of Jill Stein, he'll have more impact on the race anyway.

ReidRansom
Oct 25, 2004


Quovak posted:

I don't think 2-way and 4-way are worth including separately. Jill Stein has no meaningful base of support, especially in a deep red state, and Johnson votes are probably the same as Undecided in a 2-way. The only real reason to do that is for interesting crosstabs (e.g. black voters preferring Stein to Trump), but we've already seen those results from other polls, so the novelty is mostly gone.

We obviously need a presidential question of some kind (I think 2-way is more meaningful, but either is fine), and I love the idea of a confederate flag question if we polled MS. Other potentially interesting questions:


-Regardless of which candidate you personally support, who do you believe is most likely to win the presidential election (I imagine this will mostly correlate with who you plan to vote for, but it would be fascinating to see if there are differences)



You know, I kind of agree. The 4-way isn't really necessary and it could be replaced with your other question there, which is pretty interesting.

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!
I think we should poll people on what the word Sarcasm means.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Yoshifan823 posted:

Utah has the most potential for embarrassing Trump performance now that IN, SC, and TX are out. Do a three way with Johnson, a two way, a question about the senate race (featuring the first trans candidate for US Senate, Misty Snow), a question about the likability/recognizance of that dumb new "Never Trump" candidate", and something else fun, maybe a question about BYU entering the Big 12.

edit: There's also a governor race up in 2016 but it's pretty boring compared to Gary Johnson, Misty Snow, or that other dumbass. (Evan Mcmullin)

Three with Johnson, two-way with only Johnson and Clinton.

I really want to see a "Johnson would win this Republican State if Trump withdraws, Trump would lose if he stays in" result. I want it in my bones.

Teddybear
May 16, 2009

Look! A teddybear doll!
It's soooo cute!


BTW, don't forget to include the crowdfunding costs in the ask on the gofundme or whatever.

yoctoontologist
Sep 11, 2011

Utah has been polled several times, and once quite recently, so there's not much reason to do it again.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Does PPP do polling in Puerto Rico? I would be interested in polling about statehood as well as Zika.

Otherwise, I would recommend that the OP just run a quick Google poll about which state to pick. Otherwise the debate over which state to will continue indefinitely.

This is a cool project but I worry that it will end like every other goon project.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
Polling Puerto Rico is genius because nobody else cares but everyone should.

I think the best PPP questions are like "boming agrabah" or the recent Triumph bit: propose facially absurd things, claim Trump said them, see if his supporters endorse.

I'd go with "Obama pardons a turkey every Thanksgiving. Does this show weakness? Should President Trump continue this tradition?"

The Rokstar
Aug 19, 2002

by FactsAreUseless

Quovak posted:

Regardless of which candidate you personally support, who do you believe is most likely to win the presidential election (I imagine this will mostly correlate with who you plan to vote for, but it would be fascinating to see if there are differences)

This question is really good. I support, and endorse, this question. *thumbs up*

My favorite PPP troll question is one of the earlier ones, where they made up some bullshit law name and asked something like "Do you support or oppose the Phillips/McDowd Act?" and Democrats were split 50/50 and Republicans almost universally opposed this law that didn't exist.

e: Man, PPP is really good at these types of questions
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/764143060548718592

The Rokstar fucked around with this message at 18:03 on Aug 12, 2016

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


Ok, another national level question that we could use: "Do you support a law similar to North Carolina's HB2?"

axeil
Feb 14, 2006
538 just did a write-up on unlikely states Clinton could win. The third list is all states that could be interesting to look at.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/?ex_cid=538fb

Nate Silver posted:


Just how bad could it get? Let’s start by giving Clinton the 332 electoral votes that Obama won in 2012. That’s obviously not a safe assumption: The race could shift back toward Trump, and even if it doesn’t, Clinton could lose states such as Iowa or Nevada, where her polling has been middling even after her convention bounce. But as I said, we’re going to focus on Clinton’s upside case today.

So I’m going to list the states Romney won in order of how easy it is for Clinton to flip them, according to our polls-only model.1 The number in parentheses by each state represents the point at which the model estimates it would flip to Clinton, based on her lead in the national popular vote. For instance, South Carolina (+9.5) means that Clinton would be favored in South Carolina if she leads by at least 9.5 percentage points nationally, but not by less than that. These projections are based on where the model has each state projected currently, along with each state’s elasticity score, a measure of how responsive it is to changes in the national environment. Here goes:

North Carolina (+3.2): It wouldn’t be any surprise if Clinton carried North Carolina, which Obama narrowly won in 2008. But Obama lost North Carolina in 2012 despite winning by about 4 percentage points nationally. This year, it looks like Clinton would win North Carolina with a 3 percentage point national victory. In other words, North Carolina has drifted slightly bluer relative to the rest of the country and is closer to being a true tipping-point state this year.

Arizona (+7.1): Arizona and Georgia have been flickering between light blue and light red in our polls-only projection recently. That’s because the model figures each state would be a tossup with Clinton ahead by about 7 points nationally, and that’s where the forecast has been for the past few days. Arizona is the fourth-most-Hispanic state after New Mexico, Texas and California, although historically its Hispanic population has voted at relatively low rates. A strong Hispanic turnout, perhaps coupled with gains for Clinton among Mormon voters (about 6 percent of Arizona’s electorate), might swing the state to her.

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (+7.1): Nebraska and Maine award one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. That came in handy for Obama in 2008, when he won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional district, which consists of Omaha and most of its suburbs. District boundaries were redrawn after the 2010 Census to make them slightly tougher for Democrats, but Omaha’s highly-educated demographics — we estimate that 47 percent of voters in the district have a college degree, comparable to Virginia or Connecticut — could wind up being favorable to Clinton. There’s been no polling in the district yet, so its position on this list is based on the model’s guesses based on its demographics and voting history.

Georgia (+7.2): In some ways, Georgia might be more promising than Arizona for Democrats’ long-term future. It has more electoral votes — 16 to Arizona’s 11 — and could serve as part of a bloc of states (along with Virginia and North Carolina) that could eventually offset losses for Democrats in the Rust Belt. It’s easy enough to see how Georgia’s demographics are favorable for Clinton: It has a substantial black population, but also an increasingly well-educated white population, with lots of migration from the Midwest and the Northeast.

Let’s pause here to see what the map would look like if Clinton wins by 8 percentage points nationally — close to where her lead in the polls has been over the past week or so. This map you see below is worth 375 electoral votes, close to the 365 electoral votes Obama won in 2008 when he beat McCain by 7.3 percentage points. In fact, the map is identical to 2008 but for three changes: Georgia and Arizona turn blue, while Indiana (which surprisingly went for Obama in 2008) remains red:



But let’s say Clinton continues to build her lead, instead of Trump rebounding. Which dominoes might fall next?

South Carolina (+9.5): Public Policy Polling caused a big stir on Thursday when it published a poll showing Clinton down just 2 percentage points in South Carolina — but the result shouldn’t have been all that shocking. South Carolina was only a couple of points redder than Georgia in 2012 and 2008, so if Georgia has moved to being a tie, you’d expect South Carolina to follow just a half-step behind it. True, South Carolina doesn’t have a metropolis like Atlanta, but a relatively high percentage of white voters there have college degrees.

Missouri (+10.3): It’s surprising to see Missouri, once considered a bellwether state, so far down this list. Bill Clinton won it twice, and Obama came within 4,000 votes of winning it in 2008. But now we estimate that Hillary Clinton would need to win by about 10 points nationally to claim the state. Note, however, that the recent polling in Missouri has been mixed, with polls showing everything from a 10-point lead for Trump to a slight edge for Clinton.

There’s something of a gap after South Carolina and Missouri before the next set of states. Thus, Trump might be able to hold Clinton below 400 electoral votes even if she won by 12 points nationally:



But after that, the floodgates would really open, with lots of traditionally red states in all parts of the country potentially turning toward Clinton:

Mississippi (+12.3): I’m skeptical about this one, since Mississippi presents something of a modelling challenge. You can see why it’s an attractive target for Democrats, in theory: It has the highest share of black voters in the country (after the District of Columbia). But in 2008, only 11 percent of Mississippi’s white population voted for Obama. Clinton trailed Trump by just 3 percentage points in the only poll of Mississippi, taken in March. In that poll, Clinton got 20 percent of the white vote. If she can replicate that on Election Day, the outcome could be close.

Indiana (+13.2): Obama’s win in Indiana in 2008 — one of just two times Democrats have won the state since 1940 — might be hard to duplicate. He benefited that year from investing in the ground game in a state that is usually ignored, and from Indiana’s connections with Chicago. Plus, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence is Trump’s running mate. Still, if Clinton stretches her national lead into the teens, Indiana could be competitive.

Texas (+13.8): Democrats have long talked about turning Texas blue — or at least purple — but the truth is they haven’t come anywhere close. Obama lost Texas by 12 points in 2008 despite his near-landslide margin nationally, for instance. But Clinton has a number of factors that could work in her favor. We estimate that about somewhere between 37 and 40 percent of Texas’s electorate will be Hispanic, black, Asian-American or Native American, depending on turnout. A high proportion of its white population has college degrees. And Trump has run afoul of locally popular politicians, such as Ted Cruz and George W. Bush. Previous polls of Texas had shown Trump with only a mid-single digit lead there, although a more recent survey had him up by 11.

Montana (+14.1): Obama also nearly won Montana in 2008, losing by just 2 percentage points. But Montana is historically an anti-establishment state, and Trump led Clinton in the only poll we can find — which, granted, was way back in November 2015 — by 21 percentage points. A winning scenario for Clinton would probably involve Libertarian Gary Johnson getting a substantial portion of the vote: Montana was Johnson’s second-best state, after New Mexico, in 2012.

Utah (+14.2): People are fascinated by Clinton’s prospects of winning in Utah, which went for Romney by 48 points in 2012. But it’s hard to say just how realistic those are. The polls-only model has Clinton just a couple of percentage points behind in the polling average in Utah, but its demographic model projects her to lose it by 16 points — a lot better than 2012, but not particularly close. As with Mississippi, therefore, the odds you assign to Clinton in Utah are highly sensitive to your choice of assumptions. She’s taking her chances seriously enough to make some efforts to campaign there, but is it a wild goose chase — like when Dick Cheney visited Hawaii in 2004 — or part of long-term plan to swing Mormons into the Democratic Party?

South Dakota (+14.9): Less excitingly, Clinton could win South Dakota in the event of a national rout, as the state seems to have become the slightly bluer of the two Dakotas after North Dakota’s oil boom. Perhaps South Dakota has a soft spot for Clinton, having voted for her in the Democratic primary in both 2008 and 2016, when Obama and Bernie Sanders won almost all the surrounding states.

Kansas (+15.6): Polls have had Kansas surprisingly close — with one survey in June even having Clinton ahead. One can squint and make an argument for it: Kansas is relatively well-educated, and Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is extremely unpopular. But note that Kansas polls badly overstated Republicans’ problems in 2014, when both Brownback and Sen. Pat Roberts won re-election.

Alaska (+15.7): I doubt that Alaskans have much affection for Clinton, but the state is idiosyncratic enough that I don’t really know what they think of Trump, who lost to Cruz in the state’s Republican caucuses. As in Montana, a Clinton win would probably depend on Johnson sucking up a lot of Trump’s vote. Clinton trailed by just 5 percentage points in the only poll of Alaska in January, which didn’t include Johnson as an option.

Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District (+15.8): As goes Omaha, so goes Lincoln? Here’s what the map might look like if Clinton won by 16 percentage points nationally, along with all the states we’ve mentioned so far:



That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however.

All right, let’s stop there. I’m trying to encourage you to keep an open mind. The way the polls-only model thinks about things, Clinton is ahead by 7 or 8 percentage points now, and the error in the forecast is symmetrical, meaning that she’s as likely to win by 14 or 16 points as she is to lose the popular vote to Trump. There have even been a couple of national polls that showed Clinton with a lead in the mid-teens. But my powers of imagination are limited. Other than losing North Dakota to go along with South Dakota, or perhaps the statewide electoral votes in Nebraska to go along with the congressional district ones, it’s hard for me to envision Trump doing any worse than this — unless he really does shoot someone on 5th Avenue.

zonohedron
Aug 14, 2006


Polling Montana would be neat, but there's only around a million people in the whole state, so a representative sample would be basically my parents and three of their neighbors.

If we do poll them we should definitely compare both Hillary and Trump to Johnson, though - I can't think of a better way to look at who's voting against Hillary and/or Trump. (I suggested that for any state we polled, but with 538 calling them "anti-establishment" it seems especially appropriate there. Who's more anti-establishment, the guy who's never held elected office or the guy who's running as a libertarian?)

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.
A Utah 4-way might be interesting--Clinton vs Trump vs Johnson vs McMuffin

Though that would necessitate it being done down the road a week or three to let McMuffin's campaign start or die. Clinton probably has no chance here, but the Mormon Split could actually manifest enough to give her the surprise edge.

ReidRansom
Oct 25, 2004


Utah will probably get polled already though. We're shooting for a state that might otherwise be ignored. I still feel like Mississippi is the best bet. Going to be a bit busy over the weekend with moving, but I'll try to get the fundraiser page up by Monday.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
"Should Puerto Ricans be allowed to vote in American elections?"

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

"Should Puerto Ricans be allowed to vote in American elections?"

That would be a REALLY good one.

twerking on the railroad
Jun 23, 2007

Get on my level
Number of s's in Mississippi is absolutely the troll question that should be used.

Stinky_Pete
Aug 16, 2015

Stinkier than your average bear
Lipstick Apathy
I'm just spitballin' here

How often do you <eat/drink> <french fries/Kool-Aid/lattes/"America" beer>?

How many books have you read this year?

Is the following syllogism logically sound
All fish swim in the water
Sharks swim in the water
Therefore, sharks are fish


But I like esses in Mississippi if we do that state



Anyway, where's the funding page? I've got $20 to burn

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
What about something like "In a four way race, if your vote was the only one that counted, which candidate would you choose?"

Edit:
What do you think Donald Trump's net worth is?
Between 0 and 1 million
Between 1 million and 1 Billion
Over one billion.
Less than zero

Dr. Arbitrary fucked around with this message at 04:23 on Aug 13, 2016

Trillary Flinton
Aug 3, 2016
Is "would you be more or less likely to vote for Trump if his net worth was less than 300 million" considered push polling? My instinct is yes, but we don't have any drat clue how rich the guy is since he hasn't released his taxes so I feel like it's almost a good question for when(if) he does release them.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
Would you be less likely to vote for Trump if his tax returns revealed he was *only a millionaire*.

Yoshifan823
Feb 19, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Would you be less likely to vote for Trump if his tax returns revealed he was *only a millionaire*.

This is the best way to phrase it, even if it is a little push-poll-y because it can imply anything from "has 999 million dollars" to "only has a million dollars" depending on the mind of the person being polled.

iospace
Jan 19, 2038


another potential national level question: "Do you believe the election will be rigged?"

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

iospace posted:

another potential national level question: "Do you believe the election will be rigged?"

I wouldnt mind seeing the cross tabs between this and people who believe their chosen candidate will actually win. TRUMP to win, TRUMP will win, electiob will be RIGGED would be an interesting combo.

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C. Everett Koop
Aug 18, 2008

Do you think that Harambe was murdered?

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