Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

Flavahbeast: Jul 21, 2001

AceRimmer posted:

And then there's all the horrible misogyny

quote:

�What will you do, kill me?� she said, laughing nervously.

�Maybe, yeah,� I replied. �I�ll throw you off my balcony. I�ll make it look like an accident.�

She started to cry, but I was relentless. I told her that if she had the child, she would be killing me, so it was an act of self-defense. And if I didn�t kill her, then I would flee Moscow and she�d never find me�.I was relentless. I attacked her the Russian way: I wore her down for hours during the KGB interrogation-style

# ? Aug 11, 2016 03:42

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# ? May 10, 2024 21:41

Best Friends: Nov 4, 2011

But see sex tourism and threatening women is just so ~interesting~ it's probably exactly what a cool writer should do

# ? Aug 11, 2016 05:49

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

AceRimmer posted:

Amerikkka bad, anyone opposing it must therefore be good

For the 8 years of the Bush administration, especially after the mainstream liberals who supported Iraq were burned by its mishandling, anti-war appeasement types were invited into the Democratic party and liberal movement, and became one of its core constituencies, directing most of Obama's policy in the first part of his admin

Now, since 2012, the liberal mainstream has done nearly a complete 180 on foreign policy and is in full on redbaiting warhawk mode, but all these pesky fellow-travelers they invited in are still there, so it's a conundrum for them

icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 12:28 on Aug 11, 2016

# ? Aug 11, 2016 12:20

Runaktla: Feb 21, 2007; by Hand Knit

It's not redbaiting warhawk mode... still no direct military aid to Ukraine and no substantive boots on the ground in Syria/Iraq... preferring to act as a support role to Kurds.

# ? Aug 11, 2016 22:39

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

So the UNSC had an emergency meeting today concerning the situation in Crimea.

http://www.unian.info/politics/1465583-un-sc-reaffirms-its-position-on-ukraines-territorial-integrity-except-for-russia-yelchenko.html

quote:

UNSC reaffirms its position on Ukraine's territorial integrity, except for Russia �Yelchenko Volodymyr Yelchenko, Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations, says Ukraine has expressed its thanks to members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), except the Russian Federation, for their support of Ukraine's territorial integrity.

The Security Council members have reaffirmed their strong position regarding the territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine, including Crimea, Yelchenko told reporters in New York after the UN Security Council closed meeting that was devoted to the situation in Crimea.

Yelchenko said Ukraine was pleased with the UNSC position, except for one country.

Yelchenko also stated that he had asked his Russian counterpart Vitaly Churkin to provide the organization with evidence regarding Russia's accusations voiced against Ukraine. Yelchenko said he could hear only words. He also informed that Ukraine had sent an official request to the International Committee of the Red Cross, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, as well as the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, urging them to gain access to Crimea, in particular, to those people who, as Russia claims, had been detained in connection with the so-called "terrorist activity."

According to Yelchenko, Ukraine has requested those organizations to report the results of their communication with the detainees to the OSCE and the UN Security Council. Read also UN Security Council holds closed meeting on Crimea As was reported earlier, the United Nations Security Council has held a closed meeting today to discuss Russia's provocations in Crimea.

Interpreter's live blog has updates on everything that's happened so far, including arrests of people Russia claims were involved in the terrorist attack. They claim to have detained seven, but so far only released a picture of one man.

http://www.interpretermag.com/day-906/#14796

Here is a video of the man's interrogation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRnBfJWbSBM

https://twitter.com/Millermena/status/763803657049485314

Photos showing RPG-29 with TBG-29V thermobaric grenades appeared on social media today. The source says Russian troops are using them.

https://twitter.com/ryabtchuk_roman/status/763792359788249088

Minsk II is dead for both sides in the conflict, there are daily reports of casualties and wounded.

# ? Aug 11, 2016 23:45

Cugel the Clever: Apr 5, 2009; I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

https://twitter.com/rbc_channel/status/763407610049462272

What on Earth... did no one on set know how to lower the teleprompter so the poor news anchor didn't have too look ridiculous the entire time?

# ? Aug 12, 2016 02:00

Rincewinds: Jul 30, 2014; MEAT IS MEAT

It's hard repeating Russia's official reports without appearing to be ironic.

# ? Aug 12, 2016 15:16

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Lithuania says Belarus violated their airspace.

http://www.urm.lt/default/en/news/lithuania-extends-a-diplomatic-note-to-belarus-over-airspace-violation-

quote:

On 12 August, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania extended a diplomatic note to the charg� d'affaires of the Embassy of Belarus to Lithuania Lyudmila Tatarinovich over an airspace violation by an unidentified type of aircraft, which entered the Lithuanian airspace from Belarus on 11 August.

According to services monitoring the Lithuanian airspace, the airspace was violated twice on 11 August at 10:37 a.m., (Lithuanian time) by an unidentified type of aircraft, which entered the airspace near Lazdijai District Municipality from Belarus. The violation of the Lithuanian airspace lasted till 10:47 a.m.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania requested Belarus to immediately provide an explanation of the above-mentioned incident and urged to take all necessary measures to prevent such incidents from happening again in the future.

Belarus responded with this:

http://mfa.gov.by/press/news_mfa/ddf4991e634125b8.html

quote:

A Foreign Ministry spokesman D.Mironchika the question of the agency "BelTA" in relation to the alleged violations of the airspace of Lithuania

08/12/2016

Question: How would you comment on the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims to provide him with information about the alleged violation of the airspace of the Republic of Lithuania?

Answer: According to the State Border Committee of Belarus, at a specified time in the Lithuanian side of the area quadrocopters "phantom 3" was carried out aerial photography for the film presentation updated the border crossing "Privalka". At the same time the Belarusian unmanned aerial vehicle was not allowed Lithuanian airspace violations. This clearly shows how the video and automatically saved logs GPS-flight machine, which we are ready to provide the Lithuanian colleagues.

It should be noted that all the necessary clarification on this issue could easily be obtained by the Lithuanian side through established mechanism specifically authorized border between the two countries. Conclusion matter at the level of foreign ministries is only delaying the procedure for obtaining information and gives rise to baseless speculation on the sensitive topic of borders and airspace security.

This is what they were using to photograph the border:

HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Aug 12, 2016

# ? Aug 12, 2016 16:15

Dolash: Oct 23, 2008; aNYWAY,
tHAT'S REALLY ALL THERE IS,
tO REPORT ON THE SUBJECT,
oF ME GETTING HURT,

If the seasons really do have some impact on when Russia could launch a larger invasion of Ukraine, is there some kind of soft cutoff on when it'd be easier to wait out the winter? Like, if Ukraine makes it to November with no major incursion they're probably clear until... May?

I assume there's some decent historical data on the best months for major land-wars across Eastern Europe.

# ? Aug 14, 2016 21:28

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Dolash posted:

If the seasons really do have some impact on when Russia could launch a larger invasion of Ukraine, is there some kind of soft cutoff on when it'd be easier to wait out the winter? Like, if Ukraine makes it to November with no major incursion they're probably clear until... May?

I assume there's some decent historical data on the best months for major land-wars across Eastern Europe.

I would think you could model things off of previous campaigns like the invasion of Poland in WW2 or the failures of Operation Barbarossa and Case Blue. Cut-off tends to be October, that's when the temperature plus seasonal rains come in and by November, everything is frozen over.

# ? Aug 14, 2016 21:46

anilEhilated: Feb 17, 2014; But I say fuck the rain.; Grimey Drawer

Dolash posted:

I assume there's some decent historical data on the best months for major land-wars across Eastern Europe.

"It's Olympics, let's attack. Worked the last two times."

# ? Aug 14, 2016 22:06

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

https://www.facebook.com/SantaCruzSand/photos/a.513729498652061.119470.474253449266333/1325388567486146/?type=3&theater

# ? Aug 14, 2016 22:27

Kurtofan: Feb 16, 2011; hon hon hon

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

https://www.facebook.com/SantaCruzSand/photos/a.513729498652061.119470.474253449266333/1325388567486146/?type=3&theater

really want to share that to my anti-nato friends

# ? Aug 14, 2016 22:55

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

https://www.facebook.com/SantaCruzSand/photos/a.513729498652061.119470.474253449266333/1325388567486146/?type=3&theater

Why NATO steal baltic clay?

# ? Aug 14, 2016 23:10

Palpek: Dec 27, 2008; Do you feel it, Zach?
My coffee warned me about it.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

https://www.facebook.com/SantaCruzSand/photos/a.513729498652061.119470.474253449266333/1325388567486146/?type=3&theater

Reminds me of a classic before Poland became part of NATO and EU (1996):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK3Ph-fnTEY

# ? Aug 14, 2016 23:17

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Here is some light reading about a secret ledger that has surfaced in Kyiv that involves Donald Trump's campaign manager, Paul Manafort. He was an adviser to Viktor Yanukovych.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/15/us/politics/paul-manafort-ukraine-donald-trump.html

quote:

Secret Ledger in Ukraine Lists Cash for Donald Trump�s Campaign Chief

KIEV, Ukraine � On a leafy side street off Independence Square in Kiev is an office used for years by Donald J. Trump�s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, when he consulted for Ukraine�s ruling political party. His furniture and personal items were still there as recently as May.

And Mr. Manafort�s presence remains elsewhere here in the capital, where government investigators examining secret records have found his name, as well as companies he sought business with, as they try to untangle a corrupt network they say was used to loot Ukrainian assets and influence elections during the administration of Mr. Manafort�s main client, former President Viktor F. Yanukovych.

Handwritten ledgers show $12.7 million in undisclosed cash payments designated for Mr. Manafort from Mr. Yanukovych�s pro-Russian political party from 2007 to 2012, according to Ukraine�s newly formed National Anti-Corruption Bureau. Investigators assert that the disbursements were part of an illegal off-the-books system whose recipients also included election officials.

In addition, criminal prosecutors are investigating a group of offshore shell companies that helped members of Mr. Yanukovych�s inner circle finance their lavish lifestyles, including a palatial presidential residence with a private zoo, golf course and tennis court. Among the hundreds of murky transactions these companies engaged in was an $18 million deal to sell Ukrainian cable television assets to a partnership put together by Mr. Manafort and a Russian oligarch, Oleg Deripaska, a close ally of President Vladimir V. Putin.

Mr. Manafort�s involvement with moneyed interests in Russia and Ukraine had previously come to light. But as American relationships there become a rising issue in the presidential campaign � from Mr. Trump�s favorable statements about Mr. Putin and his annexation of Crimea to the suspected Russian hacking of Democrats� emails � an examination of Mr. Manafort�s activities offers new details of how he mixed politics and business out of public view and benefited from powerful interests now under scrutiny by the new government in Kiev.

Anti-corruption officials there say the payments earmarked for Mr. Manafort, previously unreported, are a focus of their investigation, though they have yet to determine if he actually received the cash. While Mr. Manafort is not a target in the separate inquiry of offshore activities, prosecutors say he must have realized the implications of his financial dealings.

�He understood what was happening in Ukraine,� said Vitaliy Kasko, a former senior official with the general prosecutor�s office in Kiev. �It would have to be clear to any reasonable person that the Yanukovych clan, when it came to power, was engaged in corruption.�

Mr. Kasko added, �It�s impossible to imagine a person would look at this and think, �Everything is all right.��

Mr. Manafort did not respond to interview requests or written questions from The New York Times. But his lawyer, Richard A. Hibey, said Mr. Manafort had not received �any such cash payments� described by the anti-corruption officials.

Mr. Hibey also disputed Mr. Kasko�s suggestion that Mr. Manafort might have countenanced corruption or been involved with people who took part in illegal activities.

�These are suspicions, and probably heavily politically tinged ones,� said Mr. Hibey, a member of the Washington law firm Miller & Chevalier. �It is difficult to respect any kind of allegation of the sort being made here to smear someone when there is no proof and we deny there ever could be such proof.�
Mysterious Payments

The developments in Ukraine underscore the risky nature of the international consulting that has been a staple of Mr. Manafort�s business since the 1980s, when he went to work for the Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos. Before joining Mr. Trump�s campaign this spring, Mr. Manafort�s most prominent recent client was Mr. Yanukovych, who � like Mr. Marcos � was deposed in a popular uprising.

Before he fled to Russia two years ago, Mr. Yanukovych and his Party of Regions relied heavily on the advice of Mr. Manafort and his firm, who helped them win several elections. During that period, Mr. Manafort never registered as a foreign agent with the United States Justice Department � as required of those seeking to influence American policy on behalf of foreign clients � although one of his subcontractors did.

It is unclear if Mr. Manafort�s activities necessitated registering. If they were limited to advising the Party of Regions in Ukraine, he probably would not have had to. But he also worked to burnish his client�s image in the West and helped Mr. Yanukovych�s administration draft a report defending its prosecution of his chief rival, Yulia V. Tymoshenko, in 2012.

Whatever the case, absent a registration � which requires disclosure of how much the registrant is being paid and by whom � Mr. Manafort�s compensation has remained a mystery. However, a cache of documents discovered after the fall of Mr. Yanukovych�s government may provide some answers.

The papers, known in Ukraine as the �black ledger,� are a chicken-scratch of Cyrillic covering about 400 pages taken from books once kept in a third-floor room in the former Party of Regions headquarters on Lipskaya Street in Kiev. The room held two safes stuffed with $100 bills, said Taras V. Chornovil, a former party leader who was also a recipient of the money at times. He said in an interview that he had once received $10,000 in a �wad of cash� for a trip to Europe.

�This was our cash,� he said, adding that he had left the party in part over concerns about off-the-books activity. �They had it on the table, stacks of money, and they had lists of who to pay.�

The National Anti-Corruption Bureau, which obtained the ledger, said in a statement that Mr. Manafort�s name appeared 22 times in the documents over five years, with payments totaling $12.7 million. The purpose of the payments is not clear. Nor is the outcome, since the handwritten entries cannot be cross-referenced against banking records, and the signatures for receipt have not yet been verified.

�Paul Manafort is among those names on the list of so-called �black accounts of the Party of Regions,� which the detectives of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine are investigating,� the statement said. �We emphasize that the presence of P. Manafort�s name in the list does not mean that he actually got the money, because the signatures that appear in the column of recipients could belong to other people.�

The accounting records surfaced this year, when Serhiy A. Leshchenko, a member of Parliament who said he had received a partial copy from a source he did not identify, published line items covering six months of outlays in 2012 totaling $66 million. In an interview, Mr. Leshchenko said another source had provided the entire multiyear ledger to Viktor M. Trepak, a former deputy director of the domestic intelligence agency of Ukraine, the S.B.U., who passed it to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau.

The bureau, whose government funding is mandated under American and European Union aid programs and which has an evidence-sharing agreement with the F.B.I., has investigatory powers but cannot indict suspects. Only if it passes its findings to prosecutors � which has not happened with Mr. Manafort � does a subject of its inquiry become part of a criminal case.

Individual disbursements reflected in the ledgers ranged from a few hundred dollars to millions of dollars. Of the records released from 2012, one shows a payment of $67,000 for a watch and another of $8.4 million to the owner of an advertising agency for campaign work for the party before elections that year.

�It�s a very vivid example of how political parties are financed in Ukraine,� said Daria N. Kaleniuk, the executive director of the Anti-Corruption Action Center in Kiev. �It represents the very dirty cash economy in Ukraine.�
Offshore Companies

While working in Ukraine, Mr. Manafort had also positioned himself to profit from business deals that benefited from connections he had gained through his political consulting. One of them, according to court filings, involved a network of offshore companies that government investigators and independent journalists in Ukraine have said was used to launder public money and assets purportedly stolen by cronies of the government.

The network comprised shell companies whose ultimate owners were shielded by the secrecy laws of the offshore jurisdictions where they were registered, including the British Virgin Islands, Belize and the Seychelles.

In a recent interview, Serhiy V. Gorbatyuk, Ukraine�s special prosecutor for high-level corruption cases, pointed to an open file on his desk containing paperwork for one of the shell companies, Milltown Corporate Services Ltd., which played a central role in the state�s purchase of two oil derricks for $785 million, or about double what they were said to be worth.

�This,� he said, �was an offshore used often by Mr. Yanukovych�s entourage.�

The role of the offshore companies in business dealings involving Mr. Manafort came to light because of court filings in the Cayman Islands and in a federal court in Virginia related to an investment fund, Pericles Emerging Markets. Mr. Manafort and several partners started the fund in 2007, and its major backer was Mr. Deripaska, the Russian mogul, to whom the State Department has refused to issue a visa, apparently because of allegations linking him to Russian organized crime, a charge he has denied.

Mr. Deripaska agreed to commit as much as $100 million to Pericles so it could buy assets in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, including a regional cable television and communications company called Black Sea Cable. But corporate records and court filings show that it was hardly a straightforward transaction.

The Black Sea Cable assets were controlled by a rotating cast of offshore companies that led back to the Yanukovych network, including, at various times, Milltown Corporate Services and two other companies well known to law enforcement officials, Monohold A.G. and Intrahold A.G. Those two companies won inflated contracts with a state-run agricultural company, and also acquired a business center in Kiev with a helicopter pad on the roof that would ease Mr. Yanukovych�s commute from his country estate to the presidential offices.

Mr. Deripaska would later say he invested $18.9 million in Pericles in 2008 to complete the acquisition of Black Sea Cable. But the planned purchase � including the question of who ended up with the Black Sea assets � has since become the subject of a dispute between Mr. Deripaska and Mr. Manafort.

In 2014, Mr. Deripaska filed a legal action in a Cayman Islands court seeking to recover his investment in Pericles, which is now defunct. He also said he had paid about $7.3 million in management fees to the fund over two years. Mr. Deripaska did not respond to requests for comment.

Mr. Manafort�s lawyer, Mr. Hibey, disputed the account of the Black Sea Cable deal contained in Mr. Deripaska�s Cayman filings, and said the Russian oligarch had overseen details of the final transaction involving the acquisition. He denied that Mr. Manafort had received management fees from Pericles during its operation, but said that one of Mr. Manafort�s partners, Rick Gates, who is also working on the Trump campaign, had received a �nominal� sum.

Court papers indicate that Pericles� only deal involved Black Sea Cable.

Mr. Manafort continued working in Ukraine after the demise of Mr. Yanukovych�s government, helping allies of the ousted president and others form a political bloc that opposed the new pro-Western administration. Some of his aides were in Ukraine as recently as this year, and Ukrainian company records give no indication that Mr. Manafort has formally dissolved the local branch of his company, Davis Manafort International, directed by a longtime assistant, Konstantin V. Kilimnik.

At Mr. Manafort�s old office on Sofiivska Street, new tenants said they had discovered several curiosities apparently left behind, including a knee X-ray signed by Mr. Yanukovych, possibly referring to tennis matches played between Mr. Manafort and Mr. Yanukovych, who had spoken publicly of a knee ailment affecting his game.

There was another item with Mr. Yanukovych�s autograph: a piece of white paper bearing a rough sketch of Independence Square, the site of the 2014 uprising that drove him from power.

There's no way of knowing if Manafort ever received this money, just that the ledger showed that was how much money owed to him from Yanukovych. There's probably a Trump-style haiku in this story somewhere.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 03:02

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

When is Russia's economy supposed to go to hell in a holodomor breadbasket again? Soon?

# ? Aug 15, 2016 03:27

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

The news in Ukraine proper is focused on some bureaucrats trying to block deployment of new electronic financial disclosure system (which IMF, World Bank and EU funding is contingent upon),
by blocking its certification (some sort of fit-for-purpose/data handling thing). Article: http://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/articles/2016/08/14/7053339/ --- not sure if there is anything in English.
(It has launched w/o a certification, but it's unclear what the legal implications of that are --- it might mean that it will permit people to escape responsibility)

# ? Aug 15, 2016 03:28

fishmech: Jul 16, 2006; by VideoGames; Salad Prong

Grouchio posted:

When is Russia's economy supposed to go to hell in a holodomor breadbasket again? Soon?

Were you under the impression that Russia's economy had stopped being hosed recently? Because you're very mistaken is so, they've not really had any recovery in years.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 03:31

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

Updated the OP to include Warsaw NATO summit, Trump/Kremlin ties and the recent Russian accusations that Ukraine tried to attack Crimea. Any other links or important updates can be added if provided.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 03:44

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

fishmech posted:

Were you under the impression that Russia's economy had stopped being hosed recently? Because you're very mistaken is so, they've not really had any recovery in years.

Absolutely not; what I want to know is - is it almost ready for the Russian bank to truly break and for Putin to finally begin to decline in power?

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:32

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Grouchio posted:

Absolutely not; what I want to know is - is it almost ready for the Russian bank to truly break and for Putin to finally begin to decline in power?

From all speculation, Putin's managed to isolate himself from the economic consequences of Russia's aggression due to disenfranchisement, marginalization, and, in extreme cases, neutralization of organized opposition; total control over the media, including the internet and social media; and a robust state security apparatus. The Kremlin is believed to be capable of weathering the storm even if most Russians are reduced to stone age living conditions, barring some sort of unforeseen circumstance like a disgruntled oligarch managing to pull off a palace coup or a freak lone wolf assassination.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 04:57

suck my woke dick: Oct 10, 2012; I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Young Freud posted:

From all speculation, Putin's managed to isolate himself from the economic consequences of Russia's aggression due to disenfranchisement, marginalization, and, in extreme cases, neutralization of organized opposition; total control over the media, including the internet and social media; and a robust state security apparatus. The Kremlin is believed to be capable of weathering the storm even if most Russians are reduced to stone age living conditions, barring some sort of unforeseen circumstance like a disgruntled oligarch managing to pull off a palace coup or a freak lone wolf assassination.

So all that needs to happen is Putin havin a few Vodka too many and hitting a tree during the next photo op with a biker gang.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 07:30

TheDeadlyShoe: Feb 14, 2014

actually, what would Russia look like if Putin had a heart attack tomorrow? He hasn't exactly tolerated any strong figures which could credibly take over...

# ? Aug 15, 2016 08:05

suck my woke dick: Oct 10, 2012; I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

actually, what would Russia look like if Putin had a heart attack tomorrow? He hasn't exactly tolerated any strong figures which could credibly take over...

Full Mad Max instead of mostly Mad Max?

# ? Aug 15, 2016 08:11

Runaktla: Feb 21, 2007; by Hand Knit

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

actually, what would Russia look like if Putin had a heart attack tomorrow? He hasn't exactly tolerated any strong figures which could credibly take over...

I'm sure the powers that be would have a new Putin in place shortly afterwards.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 09:29

Dwesa: Jul 19, 2016

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

actually, what would Russia look like if Putin had a heart attack tomorrow? He hasn't exactly tolerated any strong figures which could credibly take over...

Medvedev would replace him, but I don't think he is a strong figure, so he would be eventually replaced by someone? I would expect that loss of a strong leader would harm the economy a lot, because market would expect chaos. Anyway, I can only see general decline and increase in radicalization. So Russia will end up either as second North Korea or it will just go bankrupt and slowly fall apart.
He is 63 and full of botox to make him appear younger, I guess we will see what happens soon.

In some completely unrelated news, famous Lithuanian street art of Putin kissing Trump was vandalised by someone

Dwesa fucked around with this message at 09:50 on Aug 15, 2016

# ? Aug 15, 2016 09:32

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Grouchio posted:

Absolutely not; what I want to know is - is it almost ready for the Russian bank to truly break and for Putin to finally begin to decline in power?

Putin got his training from Brezhnev era KGB, he should know how to deal with Russian people during some slight stagnation. He still has plenty of ways to vent pressure by placing blame on unpopular underlings, Medvedev might be the next one to go.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 09:36

woodenchicken: Aug 19, 2007; Nap Ghost

People may be underestimating Medvedev a little bit. Being perceived as limp-wristed is a good survival strategy right now and it served him well so far. We don't know how he will behave when there is no-one above him.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 09:49

Palpek: Dec 27, 2008; Do you feel it, Zach?
My coffee warned me about it.

Dwesa posted:

So Russia will end up either as second North Korea

This is not even logistically possible for a huge country like Rusia. Falling apart is the probable possiblity but what will actually happen is another leader being put into the spotlight from Putin's party and everything working as before - the government will still have control of the country's propaganda machine. Sure there will be an economical crisis but at this point it's not even news for Russia. The only other real option is a period of political in-fighting if there are faction tensions within the ruling party.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 10:33

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Palpek posted:

This is not even logistically possible for a huge country like Rusia. Falling apart is the probable possiblity but what will actually happen is another leader being put into the spotlight from Putin's party and everything working as before - the government will still have control of the country's propaganda machine. Sure there will be an economical crisis but at this point it's not even news for Russia. The only other real option is a period of political in-fighting if there are faction tensions within the ruling party.

And when you're talking about falling apart, you mean essentially 1990 Part 2? I'm not even sure how far Russia could breakup even further. I'm guessing Kaliningrad could rejoin Poland or rename itself K�nigsberg.

I would see factional fighting coming to the surface in the absence of Putin. He's kept a tight reign on all that, but if he was gone, the oligarchs, military men, apparatchiks, nationalists, and pseudo-criminal groups would probably be at each others' throats. I don't even the propaganda machine he's rebuilt would be effective in finding a replacement leader, since I'm sure they would be torn apart by whatever side they more closely identify with.

Young Freud fucked around with this message at 11:30 on Aug 15, 2016

# ? Aug 15, 2016 11:28

Dwesa: Jul 19, 2016

Palpek posted:

This is not even logistically possible for a huge country like Rusia.

What do you mean? Then softer version of NK. Or maybe I should've said Eastern Bloc II or Nazi Germany II. Barbed wires and patrols at borders. Propaganda, jamming of foreign media and persecution of dissidents. All that stuff, it has been done before, it can be done again. China already employs firewalls for the internet connection for example, so that can be done.

There are said to be factions that are even more hardline than current RF government, I can see them surface and attempt to take power, maybe even in a form of coup.

What I meant about falling apart: more and more autonomy in various regions to appease local oligarchs etc. and make them loyal (as we can currently see in Chechnya) until they decide to leave and be independent or join China or something. Caucasus is one region in which further breakup might happen, maybe regions with Tatars, regions with dominant muslim population, regions that could be sort of self-sustainable because they have a plenty of natural resources and will no longer want to share their profits with the rest of the country.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 12:08

chitoryu12: Apr 24, 2014

We're due soon.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 13:31

Pizdec: Dec 10, 2012

chitoryu12 posted:

We're due soon.

Wait, is this suggesting a period of non-aggression from USSR during Actual Goddamn Stalin and the Cuban Missile Crisis, and then a period of aggression during the detente?

I mean it's just a cartoon I know but do some bloody research.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 14:14

Emanuel Collective: Jan 16, 2008; by Smythe

Dwesa posted:

There are said to be factions that are even more hardline than current RF government, I can see them surface and attempt to take power, maybe even in a form of coup.

The only real hardline group in Russia is Zhirinovsky's faction, which exists for two reasons: 1) to give Russia someone so extreme that it makes Putin look reasonable, and 2) to give Russia someone so far-right that it can gauge public opinion to see, for example, if Russians would be down with invading Ukraine

# ? Aug 15, 2016 14:44

Rukeli: May 10, 2014

One day Strelkov will run for elections and then we're all hosed.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 15:00

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

chitoryu12 posted:

We're due soon.

Also, the 1940s was the decade when the Soviets saw their greatest expansion of geopolitical power even if after everything that happened. Oh and Russia experienced a far greater economic decline in the 1990s than the 1980s.

I guess every 40-50 (ish) years something bad happens to Russia? It isn't a good cartoon.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 16:51

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

It's a good cartoon, but the cycle isn't as regular as the cartoonist would like it to be. Just erase the labels and replace them with a larger title.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 16:55

anilEhilated: Feb 17, 2014; But I say fuck the rain.; Grimey Drawer

Thing is, it's either something bad happening to Russia or Russia happening to other people.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 17:00

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# ? May 10, 2024 21:41

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Ardennes posted:

Also, the 1940s was the decade when the Soviets saw their greatest expansion of geopolitical power even if after everything that happened. Oh and Russia experienced a far greater economic decline in the 1990s than the 1980s.

I guess every 40-50 (ish) years something bad happens to Russia? It isn't a good cartoon.

It's specifically labeled "economy" so I don't think criticizing it for not properly representing Russian geopolitical power is proper.

The USSR did have a post-war recession (just like almost everyone else) so it's not particularly inaccurate in that respect.

# ? Aug 15, 2016 17:00

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

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