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mentholmoose posted:My issue with your team is not that they don't all play a good possession game, it's that, aside from Simmonds and I guess Parise, you've forgotten that hockey teams have to score goals too. You're going to have a lot of 2-1 games, and not a good power play. Kadri, Bergeron, Steen, Beleseky don't score goals? Bergeron had the most goals last year of anyone on my team. Pirri is a 15+ player. Buchnevich should be formidable. I have two 10-15 goal scorers on my fourth line in Smith and Larsson. I'm not sure why you think I lack offense when I have 3 30-goal scorers plus several 15-20 goal scorers, including Steen who's a 50-60 point player and Kadri who's probably a 60-point player used correctly. And that's with Mantha in the fold. Not to mention I have one of the best puck-moving defenses drafted and it's not like Drew Doughty won't add to the offense playing 25 minutes a night. Parise-Bergeron-Simmonds-Steen-Doughty isn't a good powerplay?
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Aug 16, 2016 19:50
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T-Bone posted:I totally forgot about Conor Garland man Arizona's system is nuts I almost picked him over Point Brodeurs Nanny posted:Kadri, Bergeron, Steen, Beleseky don't score goals? Bergeron had the most goals last year of anyone on my team. Pirri is a 15+ player. Buchnevich should be formidable. I have two 10-15 goal scorers on my fourth line in Smith and Larsson. I'm not sure why you think I lack offense when I have 3 30-goal scorers plus several 15-20 goal scorers, including Steen who's a 50-60 point player and Kadri who's probably a 60-point player used correctly. And that's with Mantha in the fold. Not to mention I have one of the best puck-moving defenses drafted and it's not like Drew Doughty won't add to the offense playing 25 minutes a night. I wish I had three thirty goal scorers. I had a goal (lol) of making a team capable of hitting 220 goals because that seemed to be the cutoff for the playoffs this year and still be competitive (ie LA/TB/NSH/STL all hit 224). I believe extrapolating goals from shortened seasons/rookie scoring I should hit that but my team is definitely a scoring by committee team unless Aho/Nylander blow poo poo up next year. Technetium fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Aug 16, 2016 |
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Aug 16, 2016 19:51
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Technetium posted:I almost picked him over Point I should hit 220 goals with just my forwards. I think my team coached by Julien would be one of the best four teams in the league and would contend for a Cup. If Elliot doesn't poo poo the bed as a full-time starter.
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Aug 16, 2016 20:02
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Your team seems pretty comparable to the actual Kings imo. I think they'd be about the same level.
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Aug 16, 2016 20:07
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T-Bone posted:Your team seems pretty comparable to the actual Kings imo. I think they'd be about the same level. Yeah that's kinda how I see it. Bergeron = Kopitar, Doughty/McNabb, average goaltending, deep possession lines, etc.
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Aug 16, 2016 20:09
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I think your forwards are probably better but I like their D more. Although I'm like high as a kite on Werenski.
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Aug 16, 2016 20:11
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:I should hit 220 goals with just my forwards. I think my team coached by Julien would be one of the best four teams in the league and would contend for a Cup. If Elliot doesn't poo poo the bed as a full-time starter. Yeah goal scoring shouldn't be your problem. I'm slightly concerned how bad some of your forwards seem to be at shot suppression though.
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Aug 16, 2016 20:14
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T-Bone posted:I think your forwards are probably better but I like their D more. Although I'm like high as a kite on Werenski. Fair enough but not sure I agree, I'm really high on Pysyk too and Hamonic against non-top-line competition is gonna be very effective
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Aug 16, 2016 20:19
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:Who on my team is an albatross/possession black hole that I don't know about? Parise has a bad contract because of the length, but it's the only bad contract I can see, and it's not like Parise still won't be really good for several more seasons. Pirri isn't great but he had a down year and if he signs somewhere he'll come up with 15+ goals and help my powerplay. My fourth line is three guys with awesome fancies, including one of the best young shutdown forwards in the league. Cole/Postma aren't too good but they're serviceable considering they're 6th/7th D, especially Postma, who is fast and has had good fancies his entire career in limited playing time. the issue with your team is that all of your lines except the top would be constantly losing the shot differential battle and overall losing the goal differential battle as a result. you drafted a bunch of good offensive players but your top 9 is littered with dudes who are bad at shot suppression and so is your non-top pair on D. your good defensive players are basically incapable of driving offense and all stacked up on one line anyway. brian elliott is good but he's also several years past his physical prime now, and has never played all that much in a season so who knows how good he's going to be when he's getting twice as many minutes as he ever has before. i think your team is still above average and would make the playoffs in this theoretical league but i think they'd get exposed by the lack of depth and lack of defensive ability of most of your dudes and would look like shook rear end bitches e: also a lot of bad goal differentials over multiple seasons, and a lot of bad relative goal differentials, and lots of dudes who look bad via expected goals (basically a measurement of shot quality) Aye Doc fucked around with this message at 20:27 on Aug 16, 2016 |
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Aug 16, 2016 20:21
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Speaking of possession and shot suppression: Logan Couture. Oops. At least Parenteau/Gaudreau should make that line work.
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Aug 16, 2016 20:31
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Aye Doc posted:the issue with your team is that all of your lines except the top would be constantly losing the shot differential battle and overall losing the goal differential battle as a result. you drafted a bunch of good offensive players but your top 9 is littered with dudes who are bad at shot suppression and so is your non-top pair on D. your good defensive players are basically incapable of driving offense and all stacked up on one line anyway. brian elliott is good but he's also several years past his physical prime now, and has never played all that much in a season so who knows how good he's going to be when he's getting twice as many minutes as he ever has before. i think your team is still above average and would make the playoffs in this theoretical league but i think they'd get exposed by the lack of depth and lack of defensive ability of most of your dudes and would look like shook rear end bitches I think my first line is really good defensively, especially with Bergeron/Parise. My middle six definitely lacks defensive forwards. My strategy was to get a great puck-moving team that produces offensively so that the lack of defensive forwards matters less. Elliot is capable of being average over 55-60 games. You think my team would lose the goal differential battle? It's probably a 250-goal team and I think that's good enough to be one of the best teams in the league. I don't think I lack depth at all considering between Beleseky/Pirri that's gonna be 30-35 goals between those two on the third line. And again Smith/Larsson on my fourth line actually do drive offense respectably and pot 10+ goals. Also the lines aren't set in stone and a lot depends on how Buchnevich develops this year.
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Aug 16, 2016 20:39
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Ah I saw you said "every line but the top" just now. I dunno Kadri/Steen drive shot differential as far as I see. And Buchnevich looks good.
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Aug 16, 2016 20:44
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someone be a man and do power rankings (WITH goddamn blurbs) I simmed this entire loving thing last year
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Aug 16, 2016 20:48
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T-Bone posted:someone be a man and do power rankings (WITH goddamn blurbs) I simmed this entire loving thing last year Go for it man
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Aug 16, 2016 20:52
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:I think my first line is really good defensively, especially with Bergeron/Parise. My middle six definitely lacks defensive forwards. My strategy was to get a great puck-moving team that produces offensively so that the lack of defensive forwards matters less. Elliot is capable of being average over 55-60 games. Brodeurs Nanny posted:Ah I saw you said "every line but the top" just now. I dunno Kadri/Steen drive shot differential as far as I see. And Buchnevich looks good. I personally don't see 250 goals coming from that squad. You'll be scoring a lot of goals though, I'd guess 230-240 which is still really high. Steen/Kadri are also both not great at shot suppression so while they'll drive shots for they'll allow shots against, so much so that Steen was actually a negative CFREL player last year and has been declining in his defensive abilities every year.
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Aug 16, 2016 20:56
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T-Bone posted:someone be a man and do power rankings (WITH goddamn blurbs) I simmed this entire loving thing last year Did you do last year's? I thought you did the year before.
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Aug 16, 2016 20:57
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:Ah I saw you said "every line but the top" just now. I dunno Kadri/Steen drive shot differential as far as I see. And Buchnevich looks good. they both have positive differentials but they are getting killed on the defensive end, it's just that they are players where the offensive boost is more than the defensive loss. will that stay true for steen (and parise, and bergeron) as they get into their mid 30s? what happens when you put a bunch of dudes who are bad at suppressing shots on the same line (like what your second line is)? beleskey is also bad at shot suppression, pirri is horrific at it. hamonic is also really bad at it, and he might be a little better at it when he's not seeing as many top pairs, but over the course of the season how big of a difference will that really be? cole is worthless, and pysyk has great possession numbers but his expected goal differential is majorly negative and that's cause for concern even if i'm high on him. when i say your depth is gonna get exposed, i mean obviously you have good scoring depth, but the only good defensive player in your middle six is karlsson. you are relying a lot on werenski to anchor a shallow defense, and a lot on some aging goal scorers to overcome a lot of questionable defensive players. if elliott is average over 55-60 games, your team is going to struggle because of how much other teams would outshoot you T-Bone posted:someone be a man and do power rankings (WITH goddamn blurbs) I simmed this entire loving thing last year i could (slowly) do some short fancy-stats based write-ups about the teams if people were interested in reading my dumb words
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Aug 16, 2016 21:03
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Technetium posted:I personally don't see 250 goals coming from that squad. You'll be scoring a lot of goals though, I'd guess 230-240 which is still really high. Steen/Kadri are also both not great at shot suppression so while they'll drive shots for they'll allow shots against, so much so that Steen was actually a negative CFREL player last year and has been declining in his defensive abilities every year. Here's basically what I think in terms of goals scored. Also, interesting about Kadri/Steen, yeah they're not good defensively but they generate a lot of shots/offense and I hope I'll be fine with that. I can just as easily put Steen with Bergeron and Simmonds and Parise with Kadri and Buchnevich to balance it out but I dunno if I'd want to, because that first line is gonna be pretty dominant. Parise: 25 (accounting for injury) Bergeron: 30 Simmonds: 30 Steen: 20 Kadri: 20 Buchnevich: 15 Beleskey: 18 Karlsson: 10 Pirri: 15 Larsson: 10 Smith: 12 Josefson: 3 Mantha: given a honest chance let's just put him at 10 That's 218 from forwards. Doughty: 15 McNabb: 5 Werenski: honestly don't know, let's be conservative and say 5 but I think he'll soon formulate into a 50-point D Hamonic: like 2 Pysyk: 8 Postma: 2 Cole: 2 That's 39 from the defense, giving me 260 goals, and that's with scaling down for guys like Parise/Steen and without accounting for "what if Buchnevich is awesome" or "what if Mantha puts up 15." I don't think it's actually a 260-goal roster, so maybe the bottom six scores less and puts me at 240-250, but that's a lot of goals and no matter how iffy my forwards are defensively in the middle of the lineup, that's one of hardest teams to face in the league.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:04
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Technetium posted:Did you do last year's? I thought you did the year before. oooh yeah I think you're right This was the best team over the two season's I simmed lol:  Aye Doc posted:i could (slowly) do some short fancy-stats based write-ups about the teams if people were interested in reading my dumb words Go for it, it was fun doing the sim even if it was loving crazy
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Aug 16, 2016 21:07
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:Here's basically what I think in terms of goals scored. Also, interesting about Kadri/Steen, yeah they're not good defensively but they generate a lot of shots/offense and I hope I'll be fine with that. I can just as easily put Steen with Bergeron and Simmonds and Parise with Kadri and Buchnevich to balance it out but I dunno if I'd want to, because that first line is gonna be pretty dominant. steen and kadri didn't even score 20 goals this past season getting first line icetime; why would they do it getting second line icetime? now pretend i said this for all the other players you overestimated for, too
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Aug 16, 2016 21:09
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I'm grabbing angry man Anthony DeAngelo with my last pick.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:09
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:Kadri, Bergeron, Steen, Beleseky don't score goals? Bergeron had the most goals last year of anyone on my team. Pirri is a 15+ player. Buchnevich should be formidable. I have two 10-15 goal scorers on my fourth line in Smith and Larsson. I'm not sure why you think I lack offense when I have 3 30-goal scorers plus several 15-20 goal scorers, including Steen who's a 50-60 point player and Kadri who's probably a 60-point player used correctly. And that's with Mantha in the fold. Not to mention I have one of the best puck-moving defenses drafted and it's not like Drew Doughty won't add to the offense playing 25 minutes a night. Your entire top line is coming off career years, and Parise and Bergeron are both on the wrong side of 30. Buchnevich looks like a third-liner to me, and Pirri is only a 15+ goal scorer in that he scored 15 goals once. Beleskey has never even gotten 40 points and he's getting old as well. I think those projections that you're making are at the very top of what your players are capable of. I'm also curious how Kadri is suddenly going to get 15 more points than he's shown. He already got more than 3 minutes of power play time each game, and he's too old to have much more of a breakout. I will say I hadn't considered how good Steen is, but he's even older than Bergeron and Parise. As for your defense, Doughty is the only player with demonstrated offensive talent there. Werenski still has to prove he can stick in the NHL They might grow a bit when you inevitably put one of McNabb or Hamonic on the second power play, but I don't think your middle six forwards have the pure talent necessary to take advantage of your defense's talents at the breakout. If all of your guys scored at the same level they have in the past two years I will say it's a good but not amazing group of forwards, but I doubt very much they'll keep up that pace.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:12
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Aye Doc posted:
that sounds interesting, but only as long as you promise to say cool words about my team
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Aug 16, 2016 21:14
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Drouin-McDavid-Silfverberg Draisatl-Nielsen-Brouwer Zetterberg-Faksa-Maroon Sobotka-Glendening-Lewis Jost Muzzin-Niskanen K. Miller-Braun Bieksa-C. Miller DeAngelo Luongo Hammond Samsonov Tippett my dumb team
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Aug 16, 2016 21:15
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Aye Doc posted:they both have positive differentials but they are getting killed on the defensive end, it's just that they are players where the offensive boost is more than the defensive loss. will that stay true for steen (and parise, and bergeron) as they get into their mid 30s? what happens when you put a bunch of dudes who are bad at suppressing shots on the same line (like what your second line is)? beleskey is also bad at shot suppression, pirri is horrific at it. hamonic is also really bad at it, and he might be a little better at it when he's not seeing as many top pairs, but over the course of the season how big of a difference will that really be? cole is worthless, and pysyk has great possession numbers but his expected goal differential is majorly negative and that's cause for concern even if i'm high on him. when i say your depth is gonna get exposed, i mean obviously you have good scoring depth, but the only good defensive player in your middle six is karlsson. you are relying a lot on werenski to anchor a shallow defense, and a lot on some aging goal scorers to overcome a lot of questionable defensive players. if elliott is average over 55-60 games, your team is going to struggle because of how much other teams would outshoot you Interesting points. Yes, the concern is that guys like Steen/Parise/Bergeron are on the wrong side of their prime and are getting older but I expect Steen to be a very good offensive player for another year or two at least and Parise/Bergeron will be great defensive players who put up a lot of shots and score goals for several years. And again, I can definitely switch my lines around. I can put Beleseky with Bergeron/Simmonds, bump Parise down to play with Kadri and Steen. Maybe Buchnevich-Karlsson-Pirri/Mantha is a really weak third line if Buchnevich isn't good initially, but if he is good, that might balance my lines out more. Lines are only tentative. I do wish I had a solid guy to go with Hamonic so I'm not throwing Werenski to the wolves and my defensive depth if he doesn't pan out to be very good instantly is going to struggle. But I see Werenski at the very least having the type of season Noah Hanifin just had (probably better), which is still respectable; having him with Hamonic against 2nd and 3rd lines is hopefully going to be enough with my first pairing playing 25 minutes a night. Cole does suck but there are barely any veteran D left who are cheap. I'd probably play Postma with Pysyk and both of those dudes are fast as gently caress and move the puck very well. I'm high on Pysyk if he's getting a majority O-zone starts. No team is perfect in this draft and I do basically wish I had drafted another solid D to play with Hamonic and push Werenski down and that instead of Mantha maybe I'd drafted more of a sure thing two-way middle six guy, but I was also afraid of being an old fogey team with no youth coming through the pipeline. Clayton Keller is a really underrated prospect, he's gonna be really loving good. So anyways, I could choose to give my 4th line a lot of D-zone starts and my 2nd line a lot of O-zone starts and play my excellent first line 22 minutes a night in all situations and I don't think I'd have any problems insurmountable enough to score a lot of goals and make the playoffs. And again if Werenski comes through the gate the way I think he will (he's been so goddamn great at every level in the past couple years and was a joy to watch in the AHL earlier this year), his pairing with Hamonic will be absolutely respectable against lower competition. I think if Elliot is average over 55-60 games that's basically a lock on the playoffs, I totally disagree about him. I think I'll be peppering so many shots on the other side and possessing the puck a majority of the time while being prone to mis-matchups, defensive lapses, and depth issues if the rookies don't pan out. Still think this team competes for a Cup.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:18
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Talk about how my team is 20/23 NCAA alumni and therefore smarter than every other team
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Aug 16, 2016 21:17
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Teemu Pokemon posted:Talk about how my team is 20/23 NCAA alumni and therefore smarter than every other team i will do my best to evaluate everyone's teams in context of their drafting gimmicks. for example, whatever the hell flyinglemur did is an A+
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Aug 16, 2016 21:20
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Aye Doc posted:steen and kadri didn't even score 20 goals this past season getting first line icetime; why would they do it getting second line icetime? Steen had 17 in 67 games. I actually thought he had more last year for some reason. You don't think Steen/Kadri are both 20-goal players? Even if I over-estimated them, if they both comine for 35 goals, that still makes my team a 240+ goal team.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:20
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i am the bird posted:Drouin-McDavid-Silfverberg I've been on this team's dick all draft and goddamnit I'm staying there. I wish your D was better after that top pair and your RWs are well kind of crappy but this is a playoff team for sure imo
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Aug 16, 2016 21:22
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mentholmoose posted:Your entire top line is coming off career years, and Parise and Bergeron are both on the wrong side of 30. Buchnevich looks like a third-liner to me, and Pirri is only a 15+ goal scorer in that he scored 15 goals once. Beleskey has never even gotten 40 points and he's getting old as well. I think those projections that you're making are at the very top of what your players are capable of. I'm also curious how Kadri is suddenly going to get 15 more points than he's shown. He already got more than 3 minutes of power play time each game, and he's too old to have much more of a breakout. I will say I hadn't considered how good Steen is, but he's even older than Bergeron and Parise. Parise isn't coming off a career year at all. Bergeron is but I also think Julien changed the way the Bruins played this year and his role was expanded and it was partially due to that. Simmonds has had 3 consecutive years of between 28-32 goals. So say Parise, Bergeron, and Simmonds all hit 25 instead. Kadri/Steen combine for 35, Buchnevich gets 10. Not as good but it's still easily a playoff team offense. I don't think Parise/Bergeron are going to fall off much at all for the next 2 years (they'll be both be 25-goal players who drive offense and are excellent defensively), Beleskey is basically what he is, which is a 15-20 goal player. Pirri had 14 goals last year despite missing plenty of time, he would have had a second consecutive season of solid production despite limited ice time. At the very least he's got a great shot for the powerplay and will provide third line pop. If my players decline and my rookies don't step up to the plate, my team will have problems, I will admit that, but I think the older players I selected aren't going to fall off a cliff next year and will continue to be productive into their 30's. That's why I picked them. I mean come on, Bergeron is gonna be great for a while. And the factor to remember is that Claude Julien's teams do really well and players like Kadri and Steen, if well-utilized (ie. 55-60% offensive zone starts perhaps), are going to be effective. Again, if I give a majority D-zone starts to the 4th line, a majority O-zone starts to the 2nd, and essentially split the rest for my 1st and 3rd lines, I think I'll come out ahead.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:27
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T-Bone posted:I've been on this team's dick all draft and goddamnit I'm staying there. I wish your D was better after that top pair but this is a playoff team for sure imo I'm hoping the mess of strong two-way forwards make up for the defense, which is a grab bag of mediocre middle pairing dudes whose possession numbers are okay but probably reflect their partners/teams more than their individual talent. In any event, I think this roster with Tippett at the helm would frustrate the gently caress out of everyone else. I'm not in terrible shape with the cap even with some albatross contracts. I feel like I'm set up well to make a competitive run now but my core is young enough for long term success, too.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:28
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:You don't think Steen/Kadri are both 20-goal players? Even if I over-estimated them, if they both comine for 35 goals, that still makes my team a 240+ goal team. i'm not quoting the other posts but here are my responses to your general points: i think kadri and steen are both 20 goal players if they get 20 minutes a game, but there are 60 minutes in a game of hockey. i think beleskey is an 18 goal scorer if he gets 18 minutes a game but he's not going to on this team. i think pirri is a 15 goal scorer if he gets 15 minutes a game, but he's not going to on this team. if they do get those minutes, it's coming at the expense of your other better wingers. you keep talking about getting whatever players a majority of o-zone starts, but there are again a lot less of those in a game of hockey to spread around than you seem to realize. if you could play the entire game inside your opponent's blue line and somehow find 70 minutes of ice time in a game of hockey, you'd score 260 goals
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Aug 16, 2016 21:35
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Pirri has put up a 20-goal pace over the last two years playing just under 15 minutes a game, if he's getting 11-12 I think he'll put up 12-15 goals over a full healthy season, and he's gonna be on my second PP unit with his one-timer. Kadri has been putting up 17-20 goals playing 17-18 minutes a game, so maybe he puts up 17-18 goals for me. Steen has been getting 20 minutes with the Blues and he's gonna go down to 17-ish with me so yeah maybe he puts up 15-18 goals. Everyone on my first line would probably get 22 minutes (roughly estimating for PP/PK time), Kadri/Steen would get 17-18, Buchnevich less, something like 13-14, Beleseky would get PP time and would probably be close to 15, Karlsson/Pirri/Mantha would be around 12, fourth liners get their 10. Haven't done all the math or any of that, this is just estimation. I'm just trying to say that if players were deployed well, this team won't have problems with goal-scoring.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:43
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T-Bone posted:I've been on this team's dick all draft and goddamnit I'm staying there. I wish your D was better after that top pair and your RWs are well kind of crappy but this is a playoff team for sure imo I'm not even drafting this year but I've been following. I agree. At first glance it seems like a stretch to plug Drouin in as 1LW but the fact that he's got Zetterberg on the 3rd line more than compensates for the risk that the guy doesn't finish panning out. I think he will but he's just not a proven 20-minute guy yet. This is my favorite team. In 2 years I don't even think it's going to be close just how much better McDavid is going to be than everyone else.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:43
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Faksa is super good too, I was so mad that bird sniped him from me
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Aug 16, 2016 21:46
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Scoopy poopy doo. I'll post lines in a little bit.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:52
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Coaching also really matters and Julien being my coach I think makes my team better. If you took a team like the Kings and assessed their team based on somebody doing this draft drafting their exact roster and all you were going on were individual statistics/roles/WOWY they'd look good but you'd say that the core is old and will decline, there are no good prospects in the pipeline, the goaltending is average, the forwards won't score a lot and the defense might not be good enough to compensate for all the low-scoring one-goal games, etc. Same goes for any other team. Darryl Sutter coaches the Kings in a way which gets the most out of the lineup and escalates the effectiveness of the roster in a way another coach might not. That's why I think that my team with a meh coach would probably struggle in a lot of ways but I think Julien would utilize my players very well and make the most out of a team consisting of a lot of players who can move the puck.
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Aug 16, 2016 21:52
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Jonathan Huberdeau - Kyle Turris - Jordan Eberle Brayden Schenn - Mikko Koivu- Bobby Ryan Thomas Vanek- Calle Jarnkrok- Ryan Spooner Daniel Carr - Brett Connolly- Devante Smith-Pelley Michael McCarron Johnny Oduya -Shayne Gostibehere Cam Fowler - Francois Beauchemin Zach Bogosian - Trevor Van Riemsdyk Mikhail Sergachev- Mark Barberio Carey Price Malcolm Subban Coach CAPTAIN KIRK MULLER Stare at my team. Analyze it. Love it. imo it's a playoff team. Definitely a playoff team. Pretty goddamn deep... just an average defence...but I have Carey. Carey makes average great.
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Aug 16, 2016 22:14
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stab posted:Jonathan Huberdeau - Kyle Turris - Jordan Eberle i like a lot about this team (most of it on the offensive side) and also agree it's a playoff team especially under the handsome leadership of kirk muller.
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Aug 16, 2016 22:16
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stab posted:Jonathan Huberdeau - Kyle Turris - Jordan Eberle That D is really really bad but you have Price and a nice group of forwards so yeah that's a playoff team which is gonna score a lot and make Carey Price have to MVP-will it in
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Aug 16, 2016 22:19
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