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MrSargent posted:Seriously considering this, only thing holding me back is lack of dynasty knowledge and it's hard to commit when you don't know poo poo. Dynasty isn't much different than redraft. The biggest mistake I made in my first dynasty league was valuing youth way too much. Just treat it like a redraft league and put some thought into the next year and you'll be fine.
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# ? Aug 22, 2016 23:32 |
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# ? May 11, 2024 13:17 |
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Dynasty can be done well or poorly. I'm convinced one of the key aspects of a dynasty league is really deep benches. It needs to be viable for owners to stash a handful of prospective players who they know will not produce at all this year. I also think if you're going whole hog with fantasy football to the point that dynasty is attractive to you, you should be doing IDP, too. Speaking of which, Leperflesh posted:The "I Paid What for Who?" dynasty fantasy football league needs two replacement owners. We still have at least one spot open, and this is an IDP league! No kickers, no D/ST.
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# ? Aug 22, 2016 23:38 |
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Papes posted:Dynasty isn't much different than redraft. The biggest mistake I made in my first dynasty league was valuing youth way too much. Just treat it like a redraft league and put some thought into the next year and you'll be fine. Youth is valued too much in most of my dynasty leagues, but treating it just like redraft is really obviously dumb if for no other reason than that almost nobody else is going to be doing that. Wasting a start up 1st on AP and 2nd on Jordy in dynasty is super dumb when they'd be available in the 3rd or 4th or 5th. Anyway, agreed that it isn't too hard to pick up quickly. Find some dynasty rankings that seem reasonable (Fantasy Pros is nice in that the keeper/dynasty rankings they're usually compiling from aren't ridiculously overvaluing of youth compared to some other sources), look at some compiled mocks from this year (http://mizelle.net/mfl/2016/), and generally try to know after the first 2-3 rounds whether you're going to try to win immediately or build a younger team, so you know whether you want, eg, Brandon Marshall or Corey Coleman in the 4th or 5th. Edit: also /r/dynastyff is a good resource imo, but skews way towards overvaluing youth. sourdough fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Aug 22, 2016 |
# ? Aug 22, 2016 23:46 |
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Papes posted:Houston played at an unsustainable pace for the first 8 or so games of the season, inflating nuks targets by a lot. Basically this. Houston played from behind by huge deficits and were airmailing to Nuk for most of the second half at times. No one doubts his talent. I doubt that he will get the same fantasy opportunity as last year. The only way Nuk's ceiling is higher than last year is if Osweiler turns out to be a good quarterback with good chemistry with Nuk in their first year, which I am hesitant to bet on.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 00:04 |
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MrSargent posted:Basically this. Houston played from behind by huge deficits and were airmailing to Nuk for most of the second half at times. No one doubts his talent. I doubt that he will get the same fantasy opportunity as last year. The only way Nuk's ceiling is higher than last year is if Osweiler turns out to be a good quarterback with good chemistry with Nuk in their first year, which I am hesitant to bet on. Also toss in Miller being a huge upgrade over the alfred blue lead pupu platter that was the Houston running back core last year, and both Fuller and Braxton Miller look legit. Houston has a lot more weapons this year, and like it or not, it's going to cut into Nuk's targets.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 00:15 |
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Can you guys stop? I've already convinced myself to go Hopkins over Green I don't need logic getting injected willy nilly
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 00:47 |
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Doltos posted:I think Gurley should absolutely be the first RB off the board this year. He's going to get good usage and is just insanely talented. You don't have to worry about him losing touches on third down, goal line, passing situations, or when the Rams go down a TD or two. Plus I love when elite guys search for ANY motivation to keep them pumped and Gurley fuckin namesearches himself on Twitter for anything resembling a slight.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 00:58 |
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Hopkins is going to ball out because Brock BOSSweiler is gonna ball out It is known.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 00:58 |
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Looking for 2 more players to fill in the shoes of (probably deceased) forums user Gyshall and MIA forums user RCarr here: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3785313 in 12-man keeper league in its 4th year running. Someone already took the spot of a 3rd MIA player so if you step up in one of the 2 remaining spots, we'll be randomly assigning you one of these 3 teams: Rules for keepers are: 3 keepers per year (max) and I'm blocking the first 2 rounds for keepers status since we voted to keep players as long as we want. Here's how it would go if you were to get Respekt's team: Keep Brandon Marshall and he'll cost you a 3rd round pick. Keep Andre Ellington and he'll cost you a 2nd round pick. You can't keep either Jamaal Charles, Demariyus Thomas, Brandon Cooks A player who wasn't drafted like Coby Fleener would cost you a 12th round pick. If you keep 2 undrafted players it would cost you a 12th and an 11th round picks. I think that covers all scenarios. Who wants in? Also if RCarr sees this and is still interested he's got dibs on his team, naturally.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 02:44 |
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Hey Beer, my buddy got my draft package and thought your beersheet was magnificent. He also said, "It's nice to see this guy's math match perfectly to my hand written rankings, well except Jordy, who is a top 5 wr"
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:22 |
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BeerSheets Are Up! MacheteZombie posted:Hey Beer, my buddy got my draft package and thought your beersheet was magnificent. He also said, "It's nice to see this guy's math match perfectly to my hand written rankings, well except Jordy, who is a top 5 wr" That's awesome.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:28 |
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Tiptoes posted:One thing about Gurley that I don't believe is getting enough play is that he lost his offseason leading up to his rookie year to his ACL recovery. And he still looked beastly on the field. Now he's had a real offseason to go full strength in his workouts to prepare for year two. That could make a big difference. Le'Veon Bell became the back that he is because he spent the offseason after his rookie year basically reshaping his body for the NFL. I'm excited to see what a quicker or stronger Gurley might do. The thing about Gurley is he's already a beast, couldn't bulking up actually hinder his game?
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:43 |
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:BeerSheets Are Up! Do you think you'll update it again before the 27th? That's when my draft is and I just want to make sure before I print this one. I assume not since it's only 5 days.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:48 |
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Spiros posted:The thing about Gurley is he's already a beast, couldn't bulking up actually hinder his game? He probably needs to bulk up so he isn't run into the glue factory before his rookie contract is up.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:52 |
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MacheteZombie posted:Do you think you'll update it again before the 27th? That's when my draft is and I just want to make sure before I print this one. I assume not since it's only 5 days. Yeah I plan on doing another update Friday.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:53 |
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o cool! i'll wait to print then. Thanks!
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:07 |
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Beer do you ever take into account coach profiles when doing these rankings? I've started compiling a data spreadsheet tracking historic total rushing attempts, passing attempts, targets, etc. of teams under current head coaches to try to find a pattern of significance for predicting future totals. This is working under my theory that no players matter except for the obvious elite guys that have the 'knack' and instead I should only be drafting based on usage values.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:21 |
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I decided to go against the conventional wisdom of the thread and kept LeVeon Bell in the 3rd, instead of CJ Anderson in the 18th. I know the value of CJ Anderson in the 18th is better than LeVeon in the 3rd, but I had to take the sure thing on a great offense, rather than an average RB in one of the worst offenses in the league. I just can't take a season of defenses lining up 9 men in the box against Denver constantly. Someone tell me I'm not an idiot.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:46 |
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Doltos posted:Beer do you ever take into account coach profiles when doing these rankings? I've started compiling a data spreadsheet tracking historic total rushing attempts, passing attempts, targets, etc. of teams under current head coaches to try to find a pattern of significance for predicting future totals. This is working under my theory that no players matter except for the obvious elite guys that have the 'knack' and instead I should only be drafting based on usage values. This is an interesting idea because we always read blurbs about so-and-so's offense as being RB- or TE-friendly, and such. And after the first few rounds, most people do look more at usage and possible threats from the bench. At some point I think you will need to address coach vs OC and which one wears the play-calling pants.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:48 |
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RCarr posted:I decided to go against the conventional wisdom of the thread and kept LeVeon Bell in the 3rd, instead of CJ Anderson in the 18th.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:49 |
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dy. posted:I would have done the same thing, especially if you believe your roster is at a "win now" point. Yes, CJ is a better value, but you are guaranteeing yourself elite talent for at least this season with LeVeon Bell. Exactly my thinking. I'm glad someone agrees. I'm keeping LeVeon in the 3rd and Jordy Nelson in the 15th. I am also pretty stacked with draft picks. I have an extra 4th rounder, THREE extra 6th rounders, and an extra 11th rounder. I'm going for the gold this year!
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:51 |
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RCarr posted:I decided to go against the conventional wisdom of the thread and kept LeVeon Bell in the 3rd, instead of CJ Anderson in the 18th. Sup fellow LVB keeper. I don't blame your logic at all. CJA could get the same treatment that Hyde got last season. Good athlete in a predictable offense. I kept Bell in the first and made getting Deangelo a priority. I recommend you have a plan for when you want to target him.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:52 |
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Doltos posted:Beer do you ever take into account coach profiles when doing these rankings? I've started compiling a data spreadsheet tracking historic total rushing attempts, passing attempts, targets, etc. of teams under current head coaches to try to find a pattern of significance for predicting future totals. This is working under my theory that no players matter except for the obvious elite guys that have the 'knack' and instead I should only be drafting based on usage values. I'm sure at least some of the twenty or so projections that I use do that, but I don't personally make any changes.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:56 |
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The Ground Control website is feature complete and ready to be shared. I encourage all of you to spread the word. The more interest this project gets, the more I'll be motivated to continue writing up the stuff I explore. Thanks for all the support so far, folks. This has been a fun project, and I'm looking forwards to continuing throughout the year!
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 16:11 |
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Forever_Peace posted:The Ground Control website is feature complete and ready to be shared. I encourage all of you to spread the word. The more interest this project gets, the more I'll be motivated to continue writing up the stuff I explore. Looks great. I'm just sad you're using R instead of Python, so I can't contribute. NFLDB is awesome, though. Good luck with the analysis.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 16:34 |
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One team available in this. Leperflesh posted:The "I Paid What for Who?" dynasty fantasy football league needs two replacement owners.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 19:28 |
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Beer, your link is broken and I'm drafting in a few hours!
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 19:35 |
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Yup, I'm terrified.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 19:54 |
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12 team league, standard Yahoo scoring. My choices for keepers this year are: - Allen Robinson - 3.02 - Jordan Matthews - 8.11 - Jordy Nelson - 10.11 Jordy is obvious, and I'm leaning towards ARob, but Matthews value and me being an Eagles fan knowing he's our only reliable receiver don't have me entirely convinced. Thoughts? Thanks in advance!
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 20:21 |
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Do you get points for drops?
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 20:21 |
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Jordan Matthews is terrible.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 20:41 |
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 20:50 |
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Yes! My editor has finally allowed me to put a link at the beginning of my clunky gallery articles to a single-page layout of the piece. It makes me want to actually spend effort on these articles, like this one: 12 Stats that Will Totally Change Your Fantasy Football Auction Strategy http://sportsfascination.com/2016/08/23/12-stats-will-change-fantasy-football-auction-strategy/
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 20:58 |
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If you bastards haven't joined the cheating for charity league, you need to get on it. It's time to put your crippling autism to good use.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:02 |
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Sataere posted:If you bastards haven't joined the cheating for charity league, you need to get on it. It's time to put your crippling autism to good use. I can't this year but I will be donating to Beer, of course!
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:06 |
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Spiros posted:Do you get points for drops?
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:20 |
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Good Will Hrunting posted:I can't this year but I will be donating to Beer, of course! I will pay the $25 for anyone who can't. Just donate what you want!
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:21 |
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I will pay the $25 for anyone who can't. Just donate what you want! I just can't run a 4th team, wish I could but I can't bring myself to do it! Also, the link.. it's still 404'ing!
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:24 |
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If you want more reasons to play C4C: In the finals Saetare and I were both playing for SPLC for wheez. So we made a gentleman's bet that whoever lost would have to chug a 4loko. I did this (but no video because my idiot friend who swore his iPhone camera was better didn't realize he ran out of storage). It was great. Also then I utilized the cheating mechanisms and won. The league is fun. Your week isn't over until kickoff the following Thursday. You start to worry Thursday afternoon you're gonna get cheat sniped.
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:41 |
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# ? May 11, 2024 13:17 |
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Final plug: 1-2 spots available for a mostly Goon dynasty startup league with Superflex, TE premium and some other cool rules drafting tomorrow night. The startup draft will be an auction. Don't let the format scare you, none of us know what we are doing! http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3785728 Sorry for all of the plugs, just want more goons to come share in the fun!
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# ? Aug 23, 2016 23:15 |