Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

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Papes: Apr 13, 2010; There's always something at the bottom of the bag.

MrSargent posted:

Seriously considering this, only thing holding me back is lack of dynasty knowledge and it's hard to commit when you don't know poo poo.

Dynasty isn't much different than redraft. The biggest mistake I made in my first dynasty league was valuing youth way too much. Just treat it like a redraft league and put some thought into the next year and you'll be fine.

# ? Aug 22, 2016 23:32

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# ? May 11, 2024 07:02

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Dynasty can be done well or poorly. I'm convinced one of the key aspects of a dynasty league is really deep benches. It needs to be viable for owners to stash a handful of prospective players who they know will not produce at all this year.

I also think if you're going whole hog with fantasy football to the point that dynasty is attractive to you, you should be doing IDP, too.

Speaking of which,

Leperflesh posted:

The "I Paid What for Who?" dynasty fantasy football league needs two replacement owners.

This is a very well organized money league. Annual dues are currently $28: $25 goes into a prize pool (see Rule 2.1), and the other $3 pays for our MFL league costs (which will probably double next year, since this year I got a promotional deal.)

League thread. All of the 12 owners are goons.
Our league rules. We're currently voting on changing a few small items. We just moved from ESPN to MFL, and as a result, the league can now support taxi squads, so we're figuring out the rules for that.
Here is a spreadsheet which shows how organized we are. The rosters on that sheet aren't up to date, though, because owners have been allowed to drop players for a couple of weeks now.

Here is the league page on MFL

We plan to do our rookie/free agent draft on Saturday, Sept. 3rd at 6pm Pacific/9pm Eastern. The rookie/free agent draft will start out with two rounds in an order determined by the reverse of last years' final standings after the championship and consolation playoffs. After that, it will revert to a snake draft for any remaining rounds. Rookie salaries are determined by how early they go in the draft, according to a set progression (see the rules). I expect the draft round to be relatively quick, since most teams will be keeping most of their players.

We have two teams available, abandoned by goons Gyshall and kazak_Hstan: Former Kicker Ray Finkle and Percy Riot. Finkle took 2nd place last year and will thus be in the 11th spot for rookie/free agent draft first two rounds; Percy Riot finished 5th, by winning the consolation tournament (which carries a $20 consolation prize), so that team will be drafting 8th.

Please drop into the thread if you have any questions. Your dues will be, uh, due, a week before the draft, although obviously I'll be flexible if we haven't filled the team slots by then.

This is a really fun dynasty league that started up last year. I hope we can get a couple of fun goons involved.

We still have at least one spot open, and this is an IDP league! No kickers, no D/ST.

# ? Aug 22, 2016 23:38

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Papes posted:

Dynasty isn't much different than redraft. The biggest mistake I made in my first dynasty league was valuing youth way too much. Just treat it like a redraft league and put some thought into the next year and you'll be fine.

Youth is valued too much in most of my dynasty leagues, but treating it just like redraft is really obviously dumb if for no other reason than that almost nobody else is going to be doing that. Wasting a start up 1st on AP and 2nd on Jordy in dynasty is super dumb when they'd be available in the 3rd or 4th or 5th.

Anyway, agreed that it isn't too hard to pick up quickly. Find some dynasty rankings that seem reasonable (Fantasy Pros is nice in that the keeper/dynasty rankings they're usually compiling from aren't ridiculously overvaluing of youth compared to some other sources), look at some compiled mocks from this year (http://mizelle.net/mfl/2016/), and generally try to know after the first 2-3 rounds whether you're going to try to win immediately or build a younger team, so you know whether you want, eg, Brandon Marshall or Corey Coleman in the 4th or 5th.

Edit: also /r/dynastyff is a good resource imo, but skews way towards overvaluing youth.

sourdough fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Aug 22, 2016

# ? Aug 22, 2016 23:46

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Papes posted:

Houston played at an unsustainable pace for the first 8 or so games of the season, inflating nuks targets by a lot.

You're basically drafting nuk at his ceiling but he also has an extreme high floor. Green can potentially get even more targets this year due to the new wrs coming in, and if eifert is out he'll absorb more red zone looks.

Green can realistically outplay his adp if things shake out right but I think nuks best outcome is matching what he did last year on fewer targets.

Basically this. Houston played from behind by huge deficits and were airmailing to Nuk for most of the second half at times. No one doubts his talent. I doubt that he will get the same fantasy opportunity as last year. The only way Nuk's ceiling is higher than last year is if Osweiler turns out to be a good quarterback with good chemistry with Nuk in their first year, which I am hesitant to bet on.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 00:04

Frustrated: Jun 12, 2003

MrSargent posted:

Basically this. Houston played from behind by huge deficits and were airmailing to Nuk for most of the second half at times. No one doubts his talent. I doubt that he will get the same fantasy opportunity as last year. The only way Nuk's ceiling is higher than last year is if Osweiler turns out to be a good quarterback with good chemistry with Nuk in their first year, which I am hesitant to bet on.

Also toss in Miller being a huge upgrade over the alfred blue lead pupu platter that was the Houston running back core last year, and both Fuller and Braxton Miller look legit. Houston has a lot more weapons this year, and like it or not, it's going to cut into Nuk's targets.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 00:15

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Can you guys stop? I've already convinced myself to go Hopkins over Green I don't need logic getting injected willy nilly

# ? Aug 23, 2016 00:47

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Doltos posted:

I think Gurley should absolutely be the first RB off the board this year. He's going to get good usage and is just insanely talented. You don't have to worry about him losing touches on third down, goal line, passing situations, or when the Rams go down a TD or two.

One thing about Gurley that I don't believe is getting enough play is that he lost his offseason leading up to his rookie year to his ACL recovery. And he still looked beastly on the field. Now he's had a real offseason to go full strength in his workouts to prepare for year two. That could make a big difference. Le'Veon Bell became the back that he is because he spent the offseason after his rookie year basically reshaping his body for the NFL. I'm excited to see what a quicker or stronger Gurley might do.

Plus I love when elite guys search for ANY motivation to keep them pumped and Gurley fuckin namesearches himself on Twitter for anything resembling a slight.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 00:58

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Hopkins is going to ball out because Brock BOSSweiler is gonna ball out

It is known.

:colbert:

# ? Aug 23, 2016 00:58

internet inc: Jun 13, 2005; brb
_{taking pictures

of ur house}

Looking for 2 more players to fill in the shoes of (probably deceased) forums user Gyshall and MIA forums user RCarr here:

http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3785313

in 12-man keeper league in its 4th year running.

Someone already took the spot of a 3rd MIA player so if you step up in one of the 2 remaining spots, we'll be randomly assigning you one of these 3 teams:

Rules for keepers are: 3 keepers per year (max) and I'm blocking the first 2 rounds for keepers status since we voted to keep players as long as we want.

Here's how it would go if you were to get Respekt's team:

Keep Brandon Marshall and he'll cost you a 3rd round pick.
Keep Andre Ellington and he'll cost you a 2nd round pick.
You can't keep either Jamaal Charles, Demariyus Thomas, Brandon Cooks ~~or Marshawn Lynch~~.
A player who wasn't drafted like Coby Fleener would cost you a 12th round pick.
If you keep 2 undrafted players it would cost you a 12th and an 11th round picks.

I think that covers all scenarios.

Who wants in?

Also if RCarr sees this and is still interested he's got dibs on his team, naturally.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 02:44

MacheteZombie: Feb 4, 2007

Hey Beer, my buddy got my draft package and thought your beersheet was magnificent. He also said, "It's nice to see this guy's math match perfectly to my hand written rankings, well except Jordy, who is a top 5 wr"

# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:22

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

BeerSheets Are Up! :siren:

MacheteZombie posted:

Hey Beer, my buddy got my draft package and thought your beersheet was magnificent. He also said, "It's nice to see this guy's math match perfectly to my hand written rankings, well except Jordy, who is a top 5 wr"

That's awesome.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:28

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Tiptoes posted:

One thing about Gurley that I don't believe is getting enough play is that he lost his offseason leading up to his rookie year to his ACL recovery. And he still looked beastly on the field. Now he's had a real offseason to go full strength in his workouts to prepare for year two. That could make a big difference. Le'Veon Bell became the back that he is because he spent the offseason after his rookie year basically reshaping his body for the NFL. I'm excited to see what a quicker or stronger Gurley might do.

Plus I love when elite guys search for ANY motivation to keep them pumped and Gurley fuckin namesearches himself on Twitter for anything resembling a slight.

The thing about Gurley is he's already a beast, couldn't bulking up actually hinder his game?

# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:43

MacheteZombie: Feb 4, 2007

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

BeerSheets Are Up!

That's awesome.

Do you think you'll update it again before the 27th? That's when my draft is and I just want to make sure before I print this one. I assume not since it's only 5 days.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:48

Marshmallow Blue: Apr 25, 2010

Spiros posted:

The thing about Gurley is he's already a beast, couldn't bulking up actually hinder his game?

He probably needs to bulk up so he isn't run into the glue factory before his rookie contract is up.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:52

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

MacheteZombie posted:

Do you think you'll update it again before the 27th? That's when my draft is and I just want to make sure before I print this one. I assume not since it's only 5 days.

Yeah I plan on doing another update Friday.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 14:53

MacheteZombie: Feb 4, 2007

o cool! i'll wait to print then. Thanks!

# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:07

Doltos: Dec 28, 2005; 🤌🤌🤌

Beer do you ever take into account coach profiles when doing these rankings? I've started compiling a data spreadsheet tracking historic total rushing attempts, passing attempts, targets, etc. of teams under current head coaches to try to find a pattern of significance for predicting future totals. This is working under my theory that no players matter except for the obvious elite guys that have the 'knack' and instead I should only be drafting based on usage values.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:21

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

I decided to go against the conventional wisdom of the thread and kept LeVeon Bell in the 3rd, instead of CJ Anderson in the 18th.

I know the value of CJ Anderson in the 18th is better than LeVeon in the 3rd, but I had to take the sure thing on a great offense, rather than an average RB in one of the worst offenses in the league. I just can't take a season of defenses lining up 9 men in the box against Denver constantly.

Someone tell me I'm not an idiot.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:46

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Doltos posted:

Beer do you ever take into account coach profiles when doing these rankings? I've started compiling a data spreadsheet tracking historic total rushing attempts, passing attempts, targets, etc. of teams under current head coaches to try to find a pattern of significance for predicting future totals. This is working under my theory that no players matter except for the obvious elite guys that have the 'knack' and instead I should only be drafting based on usage values.

This is an interesting idea because we always read blurbs about so-and-so's offense as being RB- or TE-friendly, and such. And after the first few rounds, most people do look more at usage and possible threats from the bench.

At some point I think you will need to address coach vs OC and which one wears the play-calling pants.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:48

mega dy: Dec 6, 2003

RCarr posted:

I decided to go against the conventional wisdom of the thread and kept LeVeon Bell in the 3rd, instead of CJ Anderson in the 18th.

I know the value of CJ Anderson in the 18th is better than LeVeon in the 3rd, but I had to take the sure thing on a great offense, rather than an average RB in one of the worst offenses in the league. I just can't take a season of defenses lining up 9 men in the box against Denver constantly.

Someone tell me I'm not an idiot.

I would have done the same thing, especially if you believe your roster is at a "win now" point. Yes, CJ is a better value, but you are guaranteeing yourself elite talent for at least this season with LeVeon Bell.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:49

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

dy. posted:

I would have done the same thing, especially if you believe your roster is at a "win now" point. Yes, CJ is a better value, but you are guaranteeing yourself elite talent for at least this season with LeVeon Bell.

Exactly my thinking. I'm glad someone agrees. I'm keeping LeVeon in the 3rd and Jordy Nelson in the 15th. I am also pretty stacked with draft picks. I have an extra 4th rounder, THREE extra 6th rounders, and an extra 11th rounder. I'm going for the gold this year!

# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:51

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

RCarr posted:

I decided to go against the conventional wisdom of the thread and kept LeVeon Bell in the 3rd, instead of CJ Anderson in the 18th.

I know the value of CJ Anderson in the 18th is better than LeVeon in the 3rd, but I had to take the sure thing on a great offense, rather than an average RB in one of the worst offenses in the league. I just can't take a season of defenses lining up 9 men in the box against Denver constantly.

Someone tell me I'm not an idiot.

Sup fellow LVB keeper. I don't blame your logic at all. CJA could get the same treatment that Hyde got last season. Good athlete in a predictable offense.

I kept Bell in the first and made getting Deangelo a priority. I recommend you have a plan for when you want to target him.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:52

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Doltos posted:

Beer do you ever take into account coach profiles when doing these rankings? I've started compiling a data spreadsheet tracking historic total rushing attempts, passing attempts, targets, etc. of teams under current head coaches to try to find a pattern of significance for predicting future totals. This is working under my theory that no players matter except for the obvious elite guys that have the 'knack' and instead I should only be drafting based on usage values.

I'm sure at least some of the twenty or so projections that I use do that, but I don't personally make any changes.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 15:56

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

The Ground Control website is feature complete and ready to be shared. I encourage all of you to spread the word. The more interest this project gets, the more I'll be motivated to continue writing up the stuff I explore.

Thanks for all the support so far, folks. This has been a fun project, and I'm looking forwards to continuing throughout the year!

# ? Aug 23, 2016 16:11

CompeAnansi: Feb 1, 2011; I respectfully decline
the invitation to join
your hallucination

Forever_Peace posted:

The Ground Control website is feature complete and ready to be shared. I encourage all of you to spread the word. The more interest this project gets, the more I'll be motivated to continue writing up the stuff I explore.

Thanks for all the support so far, folks. This has been a fun project, and I'm looking forwards to continuing throughout the year!

Looks great. I'm just sad you're using R instead of Python, so I can't contribute. NFLDB is awesome, though. Good luck with the analysis.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 16:34

Spermy Smurf: Jul 2, 2004

One team available in this.

Leperflesh posted:

The "I Paid What for Who?" dynasty fantasy football league needs two replacement owners.

This is a very well organized money league. Annual dues are currently $28: $25 goes into a prize pool (see Rule 2.1), and the other $3 pays for our MFL league costs (which will probably double next year, since this year I got a promotional deal.)

League thread. All of the 12 owners are goons.
Our league rules. We're currently voting on changing a few small items. We just moved from ESPN to MFL, and as a result, the league can now support taxi squads, so we're figuring out the rules for that.
Here is a spreadsheet which shows how organized we are. The rosters on that sheet aren't up to date, though, because owners have been allowed to drop players for a couple of weeks now.

Here is the league page on MFL

We plan to do our rookie/free agent draft on Saturday, Sept. 3rd at 6pm Pacific/9pm Eastern. The rookie/free agent draft will start out with two rounds in an order determined by the reverse of last years' final standings after the championship and consolation playoffs. After that, it will revert to a snake draft for any remaining rounds. Rookie salaries are determined by how early they go in the draft, according to a set progression (see the rules). I expect the draft round to be relatively quick, since most teams will be keeping most of their players.

We have two teams available, abandoned by goons Gyshall and kazak_Hstan: Former Kicker Ray Finkle and Percy Riot. Finkle took 2nd place last year and will thus be in the 11th spot for rookie/free agent draft first two rounds; Percy Riot finished 5th, by winning the consolation tournament (which carries a $20 consolation prize), so that team will be drafting 8th.

Please drop into the thread if you have any questions. Your dues will be, uh, due, a week before the draft, although obviously I'll be flexible if we haven't filled the team slots by then.

This is a really fun dynasty league that started up last year. I hope we can get a couple of fun goons involved.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 19:28

Good Will Hrunting: Oct 8, 2012; I changed my mind.
I'm not sorry.

Beer, your link is broken and I'm drafting in a few hours! :ohdear:

# ? Aug 23, 2016 19:35

Texibus: May 18, 2008

Yup, I'm terrified.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 19:54

Game-Blouses: Dec 18, 2008

12 team league, standard Yahoo scoring. My choices for keepers this year are:

- Allen Robinson - 3.02
- Jordan Matthews - 8.11
- Jordy Nelson - 10.11

Jordy is obvious, and I'm leaning towards ARob, but Matthews value and me being an Eagles fan knowing he's our only reliable receiver don't have me entirely convinced. Thoughts? Thanks in advance!

# ? Aug 23, 2016 20:21

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Do you get points for drops?

# ? Aug 23, 2016 20:21

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

Jordan Matthews is terrible.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 20:41

Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

# ? Aug 23, 2016 20:50

Drunk Nerds: Jan 25, 2011; Just close your eyes; Fun Shoe

Yes!
My editor has finally allowed me to put a link at the beginning of my clunky gallery articles to a single-page layout of the piece.

It makes me want to actually spend effort on these articles, like this one:
12 Stats that Will Totally Change Your Fantasy Football Auction Strategy
http://sportsfascination.com/2016/08/23/12-stats-will-change-fantasy-football-auction-strategy/

# ? Aug 23, 2016 20:58

Sataere: Jul 20, 2005; Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me

If you bastards haven't joined the cheating for charity league, you need to get on it. It's time to put your crippling autism to good use.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:02

Good Will Hrunting: Oct 8, 2012; I changed my mind.
I'm not sorry.

Sataere posted:

If you bastards haven't joined the cheating for charity league, you need to get on it. It's time to put your crippling autism to good use.

I can't this year but I will be donating to Beer, of course!

# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:06

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Spiros posted:

Do you get points for drops?

# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:20

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Good Will Hrunting posted:

I can't this year but I will be donating to Beer, of course!

I will pay the $25 for anyone who can't. Just donate what you want!

# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:21

Good Will Hrunting: Oct 8, 2012; I changed my mind.
I'm not sorry.

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

I will pay the $25 for anyone who can't. Just donate what you want!

I just can't run a 4th team, wish I could but I can't bring myself to do it! Also, the link.. it's still 404'ing!

# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:24

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

If you want more reasons to play C4C:

In the finals Saetare and I were both playing for SPLC for wheez. So we made a gentleman's bet that whoever lost would have to chug a 4loko. I did this (but no video because my idiot friend who swore his iPhone camera was better didn't realize he ran out of storage). It was great.

Also then I utilized the cheating mechanisms and won.

The league is fun. Your week isn't over until kickoff the following Thursday. You start to worry Thursday afternoon you're gonna get cheat sniped.

# ? Aug 23, 2016 22:41

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# ? May 11, 2024 07:02

Quarterroys: Jul 1, 2008

Final plug: 1-2 spots available for a mostly Goon dynasty startup league with Superflex, TE premium and some other cool rules drafting tomorrow night.

The startup draft will be an auction. Don't let the format scare you, none of us know what we are doing! http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3785728

Sorry for all of the plugs, just want more goons to come share in the fun!

# ? Aug 23, 2016 23:15

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2016: There is no god. Existence is a joke

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