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mastershakeman posted:wait isnt pec Sam Wang, ie the best model? Depends on best. He uses a fairly aggressive confidence band so he basically assumes that his model hasn't categorically missed the mark. This means if the polling is say 3 points more GOP or Dem than it actually was his model will miss it entirely. This is how he botched 2010 and 2014 because the midterm polling was far more favorable to Dems than the actual vote. It also uses Bayesian priors to figure out how much it should trust new info, which again assumes the polling from say, March is reflective of polling in November which is an open question. Basically it'll do way better than say, 538 if the polling is accurate but if the polling is off 538 will do better because they factor in a "what if everything is off by some amount" element. He's very open about his methods though. There's tons of info on how he does stuff. You can make a good model and still be wrong sometimes. axeil has issued a correction as of 18:46 on Aug 27, 2016 |
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Aug 27, 2016 18:44
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Pinterest Mom posted:You might think that 538 isn't on the list of Senate forecasts because they don't have a Senate forecast, but no, I'm sure it's salt.
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Aug 27, 2016 20:42
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:the metroplex sounds dorkier imo idk sounds like a movie theater to me, which while not great seems better to me then amusement park
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Aug 27, 2016 20:44
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Pinterest Mom posted:You might think that 538 isn't on the list of Senate forecasts because they don't have a Senate forecast, but no, I'm sure it's salt. nice meltdown
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Aug 28, 2016 00:06
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:the metroplex sounds dorkier imo metroplex is a cool name by virtue of it also being a legendary detroit techno label
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Aug 28, 2016 00:19
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a lot of people seem to think that having the partisanship of the districts align with the state as a whole is some kind of self-evidently fair thing, and sam wang uses an implementation of the idea as his numerical representation of gerrymandering iirc, but i don't see why that would be the case. like, sometimes partisanship is distributed in a skewed manner, we aren't necessarily required to ~unskew~ our districting to correct it i think that, like the way we apparently require pro-minority gerrymandering to preserve our representative democracy, the impulse to get your districts to have the same median partisanship as the state as a whole reflects our unease with the implications of the one-member district structure we've inherited. so in the end i guess i agree that it's a good kludge. i think stephen wolf would hold the opposite opinion if he was a republican though tbh, gop redistricting nerds tend to think their advantage in population distribution should be reflected in congress no method of representation is perfect but for map nerd purposes i would enjoy having a mix of one- and multi-member districts, and if we could do floterial districts that overlay other districts too like new hampshire i think does at the state level that would be awesome too. just make it as complicated as possible thx oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 06:28 on Aug 28, 2016 |
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Aug 28, 2016 06:26
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oystertoadfish posted:a lot of people seem to think that having the partisanship of the districts align with the state as a whole is some kind of self-evidently fair thing, and sam wang uses an implementation of the idea as his numerical representation of gerrymandering iirc, but i don't see why that would be the case. like, sometimes partisanship is distributed in a skewed manner, we aren't necessarily required to ~unskew~ our districting to correct it Obama won here by 8 points in 2012, 52-44, but did so by carrying only 28 of our 87 counties. He won by running up the vote in our outstate cities, such as Duluth, Mankato, and Rochester, and the Twin Cities itself, but lost in rural areas and suburbs. Hennepin and Ramsey counties, which represent Minneapolis and St. Paul respectively, gave Obama 1/3 of his overall votes in Minnesota. They're represented in Congress by Keith Ellison (MN-5) and Betty McCollum (MN-4), whose districts have a +27 and +11 tilt for the DFL respectively. To the north, is MN-6, Michele Bachmann's former district, which covers the Northern Suburbs and St. Cloud, which is +10 for the GOP and represented by the failed GOP gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer. Any attempt to balance our districts would inherently need to involve the voters from MN-5 and MN-6 being combined to smooth out the overall partisan tilt of both districts. Thus, I would like you to imagine a district that needs to be represented by a single person who can represent the interests of both the batshit crazy evangelicals who elected Michele Bachmann and the urban liberals who elected Bernie Sanders supporter and first Muslim in Congress Keith Ellison. On the other side, my district, MN-1, which covers the southern part of the state, has a slight Republican lean, though we are represented by a Democrat in the House. My district already includes all of the cities in the south part of the state (Mankato and Rochester), and adding in the southern Twin Cities suburbs would only make my district trend more Republican, so there'd need to be the inclusion of some voters from MN-4 and MN-5 as well, so you'd be then looking for a representative who can advocate for the farming interests that would make up the vast majority of their district geographically along with the suburban business folks and the urban liberals. In the end, it would just be gerrymandering districts in such a way as to dilute any voice that Minnesota Republicans have in Congress. At that point, you may as well switch up to a unicameral legislature, because if it were implemented according to the stated goals, it would the mix of the House into basic alignment with the mix of the Senate.
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Aug 28, 2016 18:13
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Mystery Goomba posted:metroplex is a cool name by virtue of it also being a legendary detroit techno label The Metroplex sounds like it should be a pro wrestling finisher Maybe for Adrian English when he goes solo idk
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Aug 29, 2016 05:53
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Congratulations to Rob Portman on being reelected to the United States Senate. https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/770431963610185728
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Aug 30, 2016 03:35
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Slate Action posted:Congratulations to Rob Portman on being reelected to the United States Senate. Katie McGinty and Maggie Hassan are high-fiving each other right now.
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Aug 30, 2016 03:48
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wasn't strickland supposed to be a good candidate?
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Aug 30, 2016 03:53
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Badger of Basra posted:wasn't strickland supposed to be a good candidate? Yes, but then he did a real lazy job of campaigning in the primary, giving his opponent a little-known Cleveland area politician, way more of the vote than he should have got. I thought he turned it around in the later months but I guess not. The move doesn't make sense to me unless its to goad Strickland into doing more on his own, the DSCC should have a shitload of money and be on offense. Also, half a million dollars isn't really a lot in a race that big. Its just all surprising to me.
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Aug 30, 2016 04:35
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i wonder if ohio will go the way of florida with consistently lovely democratic candidates. didn't they have to disown the gov candidate in 2014?
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Aug 30, 2016 04:40
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I forget who their candidate was but lets be honest, its not like Kasich was going anywhere.
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Aug 30, 2016 04:51
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In California, how many congressional districts are going to be between members of the same party because of the top two system? I know that my district is, but I was wondering what other districts had the same thing happen?
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Aug 30, 2016 07:19
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i don't want to be reminded that ro khanna is likely my next congressman 
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Aug 30, 2016 12:51
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:i don't want to be reminded that ro khanna is likely my next congressman
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Aug 30, 2016 14:41
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I propose all laws be written in python! New laws will be added to the legislation blockchain!
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Aug 30, 2016 14:51
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Strickland, Kander, and whoever it is running against Burr in NC are all equally wave candidates at this point. If the Dems absolutely smash in the GOTV with a depressed republican turnout, all 3 will probably get in. If things stay a nominal 5-7 point win, we're looking at 50/50 senate right now imo.
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Aug 30, 2016 15:10
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edit: wrong thread
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Aug 30, 2016 15:23
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the Ohio Senate race couldn't be any more over. https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/770722014348845057
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Aug 30, 2016 21:44
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RIP Strickland
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Aug 30, 2016 22:27
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Are the polls really that lopsided already?
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Aug 30, 2016 23:37
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Cliff Racer posted:I forget who their candidate was but lets be honest, its not like Kasich was going anywhere. Kasich's opponent was the guy caught in a car in a parking lot with a lady not his wife at 2AM and used "she was driving me because I don't have a license" as his explanation, which was just  because what sort of politician doesn't have a driver's license?
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Aug 31, 2016 00:00
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Patter Song posted:Kasich's opponent was the guy caught in a car in a parking lot with a lady not his wife at 2AM and used "she was driving me because I don't have a license" as his explanation, which was just One that gets caught cheating at 2AM like an rear end in a top hat.
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Aug 31, 2016 00:23
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i meant to make a primary preview, which is as much to put poo poo straight in my head as anything else, but i got busy last night and couldn't. anyway it looks like the grayson murphy race is going to be an object lesson in how meaningless early polling can be - grayson was winning a lot of those, albeit with the classic warning sign of like 50%+ of the respondents not having an opinion. and it looks like he's gonna get skunked and back in Grayson's old safe house district apparently his girlfriend and the former staffer of his that he decided to gently caress over by supporting his girlfriend are losing early to a Puerto Rican state rep from the area, which would probably be good since so many Ricans showed up in that Orlando area and he's hopefully not an rear end and will represent their interests and poo poo. nobody actually knows anything about house candidates, though. grayson is an object lesson in that too as already said wrt ohio sen, i recall from past elections that even candidates with massive blaring loser alarms going off - staffers quitting or being fired, getting triaged by funding groups, being a bad candidate in other ways - could win in waves. not exactly optimal to have candidates running behind the ticket, but Dems ain't gonna have a real Senate lead unless they get a wave anyway (considering the doomed red state 2018 Democrat senators are probably gonna be voting against Hillary a lot for campaign purposes). that's too optimistic though, portman is dangerous and with the way turnout works these days, Republicans who win senatorial races in presidential years almost have a 12 year term obviously it's too bad when a candidate clears the field, or however strickland ended up with just that one guy who i imagine is hoping a lot of primary voters will be thinking they should've gone with him, and having that field clearing candidate suck rear end. not identical forms of weak candidacies in the upcoming tapioca take, but if it weren't for trump i bet Hillary would be in a similar position, just because her actual strengths would be overcome by her deep unpopularity if she didn't happen to be running against the most unpopular candidate in history. but that's got nothing to do with anything lots more to come primary wise tonight, good poo poo
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Aug 31, 2016 01:06
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rip tim canova
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Aug 31, 2016 01:10
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Concerned Citizen posted:rip tim canova
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Aug 31, 2016 01:39
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:i don't want to be reminded that ro khanna is likely my next congressman What's so bad about Khanna?
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Aug 31, 2016 01:44
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Well, at least it looks like we're going to be done with Corrine Brown after today. Bad part? Joe Garcia might be coming back.
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Aug 31, 2016 01:48
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FlamingLiberal posted:This is disappointing but not surprising i too am disappointed that someone opposed to the iran deal lost to someone who supported the iran deal
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Aug 31, 2016 01:54
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Due to the way California's primaries work Khanna and Honda still have to face off against eachother in the general. Neither has lost yet. edit: Oh yeah, talking about DWS instead. Not sure why you'd be happy OR disappointed, that race was never going to be a thing in the first place. Cliff Racer has issued a correction as of 02:21 on Aug 31, 2016 |
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Aug 31, 2016 02:02
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Badger of Basra posted:i too am disappointed that someone opposed to the iran deal lost to someone who supported the iran deal lol this is some weaksauce justification for debbie wasserman "hates medical marijuana and palestine but loves payday loans" wasserman schultz
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Aug 31, 2016 02:19
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Remember: Florida's Democratic party sucks rear end and there's a better chance of snow in Miami than a true blue progressive winning any sort of seat. Grayson being touted as a progressive in his own ads probably hurt him a little when compared to Murphy who touted his opposition to fracking in Florida.
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Aug 31, 2016 03:00
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http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/canova-revolution-bernie-sanders-debbie-wasserman-schultz/497807/ As someone who was excited about the whole "Our Revolution" thing, it's pretty sad to think it got derailed as quickly as it did. Get hosed, Weaver. I know, I know, DWS probably would have won anyway, but I can't imagine how someone like her racked up a double digit lead.
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Aug 31, 2016 03:57
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Shinjobi posted:http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/canova-revolution-bernie-sanders-debbie-wasserman-schultz/497807/ She's a 12 year incumbent. She's one of the most prominent jewish politicians in the country in a 15% jewish district. Canova was a weirdo who was attacking her from the right on foreign policy and running against Obama's Iran deal, and the district is also 12% black. Canova ran like 10% ahead of Bernie in the district, but he was always going to lose.
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Aug 31, 2016 04:13
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grayson went from leading polls to losing by worse than carlos beruff lost to rubio in the other primary in like two months. he really is the trump of the democratic party babeu is leading in AZ-01, i think he's the guy who ran a boarding school that beat up kids and was recorded talking about how great the discipline was. the democrats want to run against him i think also this godaddy.com executive christine jones has been trying to get into congress for a cycle or three now, the description always stands out to me, and she's leading by a handful of votes early in AZ-05. one of the state legislative leaders named biggs apparently won the publishers clearing house giveaway thingy with the giant check like 25 years ago, thats kinda funny that he went on to be a career politician, he's in close 2nd. two other people taking pretty big chunks of the vote too mccain up 56-34, probably gonna be a comfortable win in the end. think the new polling duo of gravis/breitbart had this at 37-33 mccain in a polls yesterday lol i guess they can tell us undecideds broke to mccain 97-3 edit: https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/770787647446999040 what a whiner supposedly canova and ward are also being salty in their concession speeches. im just reading daily kos elections btw i checked rrh before i dont actually know poo poo oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 05:16 on Aug 31, 2016 |
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Aug 31, 2016 04:30
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Pretty excited here in CA in my district, which has the dubious honor of being one of the most conservative in LA county, because the DCCC is tossing money at it. So there's at least one that's not same party v. same party!
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Aug 31, 2016 05:15
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lmao https://twitter.com/GeorgeRichards/status/770830513409929216
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Aug 31, 2016 05:38
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he's not wrong, etc.
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Aug 31, 2016 05:40
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