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Just a reminder that Rawls owns and will tear it up this year. https://twitter.com/bcondotta/status/771056650539020288
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Aug 31, 2016 21:23
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Forever_Peace posted:Just a reminder that Rawls owns and will tear it up this year. I'm holding you to this
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Aug 31, 2016 21:24
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Everyone knows this is the year Christine Michael goes to the pro-bowl.
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Aug 31, 2016 21:31
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RisqueBarber posted:I'm holding you to this Sounds good. His opportunity cost right now (per FFC) is Jeremy Hill and DeMarco Murray: I like his chances to finish better than both those guys. Rawls is a 2nd round running back you can get in the 4th (in standard leagues).
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Aug 31, 2016 21:32
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Inspector 34 posted:I need a little trade advice. I offered up Dez for Leveon straight up, I feel like this is pretty fair since Bell is coming off an injury and will miss at least 3 games this season due to his suspension. I've got Deangello already so the suspension and injury concerns don't bother me too much. The Bell owner countered with Foster for Dez, which I don't like at all. DeAngelo/Aiken for a top 12 RB is insultingly one sided but so was him offering Foster for Dez so do whatever, although it seems like you're going to be wasting your time
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Aug 31, 2016 21:33
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Forever_Peace posted:Sounds good. His opportunity cost right now (per FFC) is Jeremy Hill and DeMarco Murray: I like his chances to finish better than both those guys. Rawls is a 2nd round running back you can get in the 4th (in standard leagues). Dude, I can't believe all the CMike > Rawls stuff that's been going around. It's unreal. Sincerely , a proud Rawls RB2 owner.
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Aug 31, 2016 21:42
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Forever_Peace posted:Sounds good. His opportunity cost right now (per FFC) is Jeremy Hill and DeMarco Murray: I like his chances to finish better than both those guys. Rawls is a 2nd round running back you can get in the 4th (in standard leagues). I'll have you know Demarco is back
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Aug 31, 2016 21:46
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Metapod posted:I'll have you know Demarco is back I doubt it. But on the plus side, I don't think the NFL has ever had a player quite like Derrick Henry in it. He looks like Larry Csonka and Jerome Bettis had a lovechild that was adopted and trained by Eric Dickerson. I am a bit skeptical it will translate into the modern NFL, but who knows. Dude would have tore it up 40 years ago though. He's... just not put together like other humans are. edit: lol his playerprofiler "best comp" is Zangief Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Aug 31, 2016 |
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Aug 31, 2016 22:03
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So in my 10 team with only 4 bench spots, i noticed Deangelo Williams was available as a FA, guess the Bell owner didn't think about grabbing him? I immediately dropped my kicker to grab him and plug him in. But now i'm rolling with no kicker and my current bench is Cobb, J. Matthews, G. Bernard, F. Gore, and Forte who i benched for Deangelo. There's no one i can drop right? I'm thinking just roll without a Kicker, but that would be 3 weeks if i plan on starting Williams until Bell comes back. VietCampo fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Aug 31, 2016 |
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Aug 31, 2016 22:14
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Metapod posted:I'll have you know Demarco is back *tears ACL in week 2, kills all of my fantasy teams*
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Aug 31, 2016 22:18
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VietCampo posted:So in my 10 team with only 4 bench spots, i noticed Deangelo Williams was available as a FA, guess the Bell owner didn't think about grabbing him? Try to package Williams and a WR/RB to the Bell owner or a weakish RB team for an upgrade and use that spot for a kicker?
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Aug 31, 2016 22:21
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VietCampo posted:So in my 10 team with only 4 bench spots, i noticed Deangelo Williams was available as a FA, guess the Bell owner didn't think about grabbing him? FantasyPro's has Forte just 2 spots after DeAngelo in standard and has him 1 spot before him in PPR. I would suggest just starting forte and picking up a kicker. You have a while until week 1 though, make your decision next friday. You never know what will happen.
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Aug 31, 2016 22:24
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Man I thought I was a contrarian voice but Teemu man you hate everyone.
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Aug 31, 2016 22:25
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RisqueBarber posted:FantasyPro's has Forte just 2 spots after DeAngelo in standard and has him 1 spot before him in PPR. I would suggest just starting forte and picking up a kicker. You have a while until week 1 though, make your decision next friday. You never know what will happen. Is that for full season or just the 3 weeks DeAngelo is set to start? Currently Deangelo is projected like 8 points more than Forte for week 1 in my league.
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Aug 31, 2016 22:27
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Spoeank posted:Man I thought I was a contrarian voice but Teemu man you hate everyone. This is not a game for joy and hope
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Aug 31, 2016 22:31
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Teemu Pokemon posted:*tears ACL in week 2, kills all of my fantasy teams* That week 1 tho 👀👀👀👀
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Aug 31, 2016 22:32
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Our tender, fragile bodies are ready
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Aug 31, 2016 22:35
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2 keepers, 12 team league with .5 ppr 11th round - Odell Beckham Jr, duh 1st - Le'Veon Bell, Randall Cobb, Matt Forte, Jstew 4th - Jarvis Landry 9th - Matt Jones 14th - Charcandrick West I pick 4th overall so Bell in the 1st isn't great value. Would have considered if I was towards the end. Mostly between Landry and Jones. Leaning Jones but Landry is clearly the better player
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Aug 31, 2016 22:59
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I took a gamble choosing Floyd over John Brown. C'mon headaches do your worst.
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Aug 31, 2016 23:24
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Zypher posted:2 keepers, 12 team league with .5 ppr I would keep Landry, at worst, your locking in a PPR stud at market value, if not a round later in a re-draft. Considering there likely going to be 24 pretty good players off the board at the time, that's a slam dunk to me. Having two legit WRs also really opens you up to just take BPA at 4 and then still get a serviceable, if not outright good, RB in the 2nd if that BPA is a WR
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Aug 31, 2016 23:37
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So last year, I made a draft simulator in order to dick around with the impact of draft positions and league settings and such. Finally got around to dusting it off and feeding it this year's rankings and projections. One thing I like to do is look at "what would happen if teams all picked exactly by fantasypros ranks, with a small adjustment for need". This has one solution, with and will be the same every single time. Here's what that looks like for this year's 12-team ppr:  Because I'm lazy, "0" in the left is round 1 (python starts counting by zero). The numbers along the top are the teams. This used these "need weights": QBval = [0.95, 0.5, 0.001, 0, 0] RBval = [1, 1, 0.93, 0.85, 0.70, 0.65, 0.50, 0.30, 0.01] WRval = [1, 1, 0.9, 0.85, 0.68, 0.60, 0.50, 0.30, 0.01] TEval = [0.96, 0.40, 0.001, 0, 0] This means, for example "you need your 4th WR about 85% as much as you need your 1st RB".
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Aug 31, 2016 23:44
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And here is "exactly by fantasypros ppr ADP" (weighted by the same needs).
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Aug 31, 2016 23:50
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I'm the cursor on Mariota
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Aug 31, 2016 23:53
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drat is Kevin White overrated or what.
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Aug 31, 2016 23:59
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And here is if everyone drafted exactly by Value Over Replacement Player (where "replacement level" is set by running an initial draft simulation using ranks, with "round 10" in this initial draft simulation as "replacement level"). Basic 12-team 1ppr using fantasypros stat projections and the given need weights.  edit: not really clear to me why team 8 needed 3 quarterbacks, but I guess that's where the value was. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Sep 1, 2016 |
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Sep 1, 2016 00:22
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I'm probably picking 6th in an 8 team standard money league. I've been reading Gronk is a top 5 pick in 8-team leagues, agree or disagree?
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Sep 1, 2016 01:12
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Goofing around on ESPN, I found out that the Chargers have a running back named Dreamius Smith. That is an incredible name.
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Sep 1, 2016 01:26
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I always look forward to your posts/musings. I may understand only a quarter of them, but enjoy them I do. What popped out at you? For me it was Brandin Cooks consistently getting drafted in the 2nd. Keenan going even higher, closer to the 1/2 turn. Also I made sure my wife drafted Rawls at pick 2.5 based on one of your earlier analyses. Suave Fedora fucked around with this message at 02:06 on Sep 1, 2016 |
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Sep 1, 2016 02:03
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I'm kind of an idiot with these things, but on beersheets I don't really get what it means when somethings underlined or lined through.
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Sep 1, 2016 02:21
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You know its a 16 team league when you and a league mate are drafting up street free agents like Robert Kelley and Mack Brown. We thought 3 bench spots was a good idea to create more room on the waiver but not really. Its a wasteland.
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Sep 1, 2016 02:25
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Rawls at 2.5? That's quite a reach you talked your wife into. Hopefully she's not one to hold grudges 
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Sep 1, 2016 02:32
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Papes posted:Rawls at 2.5? That's quite a reach you talked your wife into. Hopefully she's not one to hold grudges You're right. It was actually pick 4.6. She went Gurley, Dez, Alshon before that.
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Sep 1, 2016 02:38
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What are people's thoughts on Kelvin Benjamin this year? I have him as my flex in half-ppr which I thought was solid but have been hearing conflicting reports about him. His conditioning has been in question and he played limited snaps in his first games. In his 3rd game, Cam was sailing passes over everyone, but I don't see that continuing much into the season. I have a feeling he will start off slower but has solid potential as a WR1 this year.
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Sep 1, 2016 02:58
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Suave Fedora posted:You're right. It was actually pick 4.6. Haha scared me there. Good of a 4th as any I think. Just nabbed a piece of Rawls myself in a goon league.
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Sep 1, 2016 03:06
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MrSargent posted:What are people's thoughts on Kelvin Benjamin this year? I have him as my flex in half-ppr which I thought was solid but have been hearing conflicting reports about him. His conditioning has been in question and he played limited snaps in his first games. In his 3rd game, Cam was sailing passes over everyone, but I don't see that continuing much into the season. I have a feeling he will start off slower but has solid potential as a WR1 this year. I see a similar season like his rookie year I hes the #1 but they run quite a bit and Cam will spread his targets more. Funchess and Kelvin are going to be dropping a lot of passes neither guy has great hands.
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Sep 1, 2016 03:15
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MrSargent posted:What are people's thoughts on Kelvin Benjamin this year? I have him as my flex in half-ppr which I thought was solid but have been hearing conflicting reports about him. His conditioning has been in question and he played limited snaps in his first games. In his 3rd game, Cam was sailing passes over everyone, but I don't see that continuing much into the season. I have a feeling he will start off slower but has solid potential as a WR1 this year. I think he's a low-end WR2 and wouldn't be shocked if he ends up not even being a great flex play. Funchess has looked good in the preseason, and Tedd Ginn always comes out of nowhere with 1-2 great games. Plus there is Olsen for the red zone short throws. Ultimately Benjamin is a guy with health concerns who isn't very fast, he has competition for touches, and he's in an offense where running will always come first. To me, that makes him a WR2/WR3 and he's being drafted as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2, which basically means I won't own him in any leagues this year.
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Sep 1, 2016 03:22
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Those are both fair points, I probably over-drafted him in the 5th round. Someone else in the rate my team thread mentioned that they felt Marvin Jones (on my bench) could be a better flex play and I will admit its close. Edit: One point I would make about the run game and other receiving options is that I don't think that necessarily hurts him. It will be hard to double-team him with Ginn taking the top off defenses and Funchess/Olsen lines up as well. I just don't see why his opportunity would be any worse than his rookie year. MrSargent fucked around with this message at 03:27 on Sep 1, 2016 |
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Sep 1, 2016 03:24
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kiimo posted:drat is Kevin White overrated or what. People never learn from past NFL mistakes. Every year there's a huge bodied WR that bullies college competition but never creates NFL quality separation. And this is essentially Kevin White's rookie year soooo
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Sep 1, 2016 03:33
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MrSargent posted:What are people's thoughts on Kelvin Benjamin this year? I have him as my flex in half-ppr which I thought was solid but have been hearing conflicting reports about him. His conditioning has been in question and he played limited snaps in his first games. In his 3rd game, Cam was sailing passes over everyone, but I don't see that continuing much into the season. I have a feeling he will start off slower but has solid potential as a WR1 this year. For his ADP, I really don't hate him, but I haven't really been in a position to get him because there's a few guys around there I like better and/or I'm on the wrong end of that round and I don't feel that he's worth reaching on. If he fell to me a round after where he's normally going, I would be all the gently caress over that poo poo. e: Boof Bonser posted:I think he's a low-end WR2 and wouldn't be shocked if he ends up not even being a great flex play. Funchess has looked good in the preseason, and Tedd Ginn always comes out of nowhere with 1-2 great games. Plus there is Olsen for the red zone short throws. Ultimately Benjamin is a guy with health concerns who isn't very fast, he has competition for touches, and he's in an offense where running will always come first. To me, that makes him a WR2/WR3 and he's being drafted as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2, which basically means I won't own him in any leagues this year. These are also VERY fair points, but I'm a bit higher on Benjamin's floor than this, so I like if he falls a round, but, as I (and he) said, not at his current ADP Doltos posted:People never learn from past NFL mistakes. Every year there's a huge bodied WR that bullies college competition but never creates NFL quality separation. And this is essentially Kevin White's rookie year soooo Not to mention that the Bears are going to be BAD, and Jeffery is going to get the Cutler2Marshall huck-and-pray treatment so the gently caress hard. Jeffery is the only guy I'd really want a part of in that offense and I'm honestly fading him at his ADP as I feel that almost every WR around him has a higher floor and just as high of a ceiling Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 03:50 on Sep 1, 2016 |
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Sep 1, 2016 03:40
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I'm getting close to having to cut a player for a kicker so im trying to make a trade to clear roster space. One offer discussed was my Pierre Garcon and Chris Johnson for his Ameer Abdullah. My top 3 wideouts are Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans in the flex. Rishard Matthews and Smith SR are next up. I do this right?
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