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Uncle Jam posted:It is weird how you are so sure Pakistan can develop bombs and North Korea can't yet they've had arm trade deals for this exact purpose before. Either they both can or both can't. It's because Pakistan's warhead-capable bombs have actually been witnessed and confirmed. Like once again, world intelligence services are confident that Pakistan has nuclear missiles, and on North Korea they don't think they've got it yet.
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Sep 2, 2016 16:36
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Seems like a great idea to keep waiting until NK's nuclear delivery capability is witness and confirmed before taking any action!
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Sep 2, 2016 16:41
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fishmech posted:It's because Pakistan's warhead-capable bombs have actually been witnessed and confirmed. Like once again, world intelligence services are confident that Pakistan has nuclear missiles, and on North Korea they don't think they've got it yet. What key component do you think North Korea lacks that makes them forever unable to do it? You can't export control physics. I don't think they'd ever use it if they got it, but it seems inevitable since stopping then has too high of a cost for it's neighbors.
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Sep 2, 2016 17:15
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Mozi posted:Seems like a great idea to keep waiting until NK's nuclear delivery capability is witness and confirmed before taking any action! I'm sorry and the action you want to take is what, exactly? Starting a war? Sending Kim Jong Un a letter asking him to stop? Uncle Jam posted:What key component do you think North Korea lacks that makes them forever unable to do it? You can't export control physics. No one ever said they'll be "forever unable to do it". Just that they don't have it now, so stop making GBS threads your pants in fear.
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Sep 2, 2016 17:30
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Uncle Jam posted:What key component do you think North Korea lacks that makes them forever unable to do it? You can't export control physics. building nukes is hard, miniaturizing them is harder. north korea is a lot more isolated than pakistan ever was, making it difficult to build up the human expertise necessary to pull off such a complex project if you have missile capable nukes, you definitely take pictures of them and show them off because concrete evidence of your deterrence capacity is a deterrent in and of itself. the fact that north korea is being all "uhh yeah we have nukes, of course we do, but you can't see them they're uh sleeping" is pretty telling about the current progress of their nuclear program
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Sep 2, 2016 17:52
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North Korea's nuclear program has demonstrated the ability to utterly obliterate small chunks of North Korea and huge chunks of North Korea's GDP.
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Sep 2, 2016 18:20
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fishmech posted:I'm sorry and the action you want to take is what, exactly? Starting a war? Sending Kim Jong Un a letter asking him to stop? I think we've tried the second option a few times. I'm going to presume we don't actually want North Korea to be able to launch a nuke at Japan or the US. If we're OK with them getting to that stage then that seems like a problem in that if the regime starts to collapse they have literally nothing to lose. And obviously if they want to ransom Guam or something then that would be a difficult situation. Do you think Clinton should have taken military action during his presidency? My understanding is that was very close to happening.
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Sep 2, 2016 18:44
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Mozi posted:I'm going to presume we don't actually want North Korea to be able to launch a nuke at Japan or the US. If we're OK with them getting to that stage then that seems like a problem in that if the regime starts to collapse they have literally nothing to lose.
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Sep 2, 2016 18:53
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Mozi posted:I think we've tried the second option a few times. And trying that second option a few times didn't stop them from producing their low grade nuclear weapons that they do have. There is nothing we can really do to stop them from very slowly progressing on their nuclear program. Engaging in actual war would stop them, but we'd have like minimum hundreds of thousands dead on both sides in that effort. All the various talks and stuff clearly haven't worked either. So it's not about people are ok that they might eventually figure out how to make a working nuclear missile, but what exactly do you think can be done to stop it? That would probably have been a bad idea because of the aforementioned hundreds of thousands of deaths incurred as your starting point, easily running into the millions.
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Sep 2, 2016 19:01
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OK, so NK will have nukes and the ability to use them. I assume at some point they will demonstrate as much, both for domestic and foreign audiences. Then we... keep ignoring them? And if you're concerned at all about black-market nuclear proliferation, I'd assume you'd be worried about NK's presence in that arena? Pakistan and Mr. Khan showed that even an erstwhile ally isn't completely reliable on that front. I'm not warmongering, but just saying 'well many will die if there's war' isn't an answer to these questions.
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Sep 2, 2016 19:21
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Halloween Jack posted:liberal democracy ... South Korea Lol There's a very solid chance SK goes the way of Hungary and Poland in the near future
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Sep 2, 2016 19:53
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fishmech posted:I'm sorry and the action you want to take is what, exactly? Starting a war? Sending Kim Jong Un a letter asking him to stop? Saying I don't think they'd ever use nukes is making GBS threads my pants in fear? Ok then.
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Sep 2, 2016 20:24
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Mozi posted:OK, so NK will have nukes and the ability to use them. I assume at some point they will demonstrate as much, both for domestic and foreign audiences. Well, there isn't really anything else we can do about it. It's the same as with Iran. We can't realistically force them to stop developing nukes; at best, we can slow them down, but in doing so we'll also deepen their commitment to having nukes. They have the ability to make them, and any outside interference will just convince them that they need more power with which to prevent other countries from interfering with them. At some point we're going to have to acknowledge that they are going to have nuclear weaponry, and if we want to have any influence over what they do with it, we're going to need to offer carrots (and actually hand them over when earned, not just yanking them away and calling backsies on our promises when the other party comes to power), not just sticks.
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Sep 2, 2016 20:28
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Main Paineframe posted:At some point we're going to have to acknowledge that they are going to have nuclear weaponry, and if we want to have any influence over what they do with it, we're going to need to offer carrots (and actually hand them over when earned, not just yanking them away and calling backsies on our promises when the other party comes to power), not just sticks.
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Sep 2, 2016 20:55
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Popular Thug Drink posted:building nukes is hard, miniaturizing them is harder. north korea is a lot more isolated than pakistan ever was, making it difficult to build up the human expertise necessary to pull off such a complex project Yes it's difficult to do but it's possible. They launched a satellite, which is also difficult. Also, while north Korea is completely cut from the US, they enjoy business relationships with many other countries. Not only that, but NK is always inviting over foreign professors and things like PUST exist. North Korea is mad hosed up but thinking it's a technically illiterate country wide prison is a pretty gross underestimation.
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Sep 2, 2016 22:25
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 Please stop. Tell me about Korean pop. What is psy up to these days?
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Sep 2, 2016 22:46
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he's doing pretty good, afaik
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Sep 3, 2016 00:40
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fishmech posted:Their reports, and other countries' intelligence services agreeing on it. Also the fact that there's no evidence of them successfully buying existing nuclear nations' own stocks of nuclear bombs that work on a missile. Or are you saying that you've totally seen the North Koreans carrying around a missile-compatible nuke? Why would a bunch of South Koreans die in a war against the starving North Korean military which is primarily equipped with vehicles that were the state of the art in 1985 (at the latest)? The whole idea of NK being a meaningful threat to SK is overblown, not just the artillery strikes. They used to be, but that hasn't been the case for a while. The only thing keeping anybody from rolling in and deposing the Kim regime is that nobody wants to be stuck with reconstruction. Jazerus fucked around with this message at 01:04 on Sep 3, 2016 |
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Sep 3, 2016 01:02
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Jazerus posted:Why would a bunch of South Koreans die in a war against the starving North Korean military which is primarily equipped with vehicles that were the state of the art in 1985 (at the latest)? they still have a large army even if it is basicaly dudes with rickets with AK 47s and old soviet tanks. I mean yeah it would probably be highway of Death 3.0. I still assume that we would lose alot of people.
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Sep 3, 2016 01:17
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Mozi posted:OK, so NK will have nukes and the ability to use them. I assume at some point they will demonstrate as much, both for domestic and foreign audiences. Again: so what do you think we can actually do? Going to war against them would certainly stop them, but it would result in tons of unnecessary death. Signing another stupid agreement isn't going to make them stop. And trying to do something wacky like launch an internal coup with foreign backing is unlikely to actually succeed. Jazerus posted:Why would a bunch of South Koreans die in a war against the starving North Korean military which is primarily equipped with vehicles that were the state of the art in 1985 (at the latest)? A bunch of South Koreans would die, because South Korean troops have to go into North Korea to fight the war, and a bunch of them are going to die in fighting. They're unlikely to just give up without a fight, and you don't need good weapons and vehicles to kill a bunch of the enemy. There will also be a couple thousand of random South Korean civilians getting killed by North Korean attacks before their ability to attack the South is crippled beyond repair.
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Sep 3, 2016 01:54
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Discendo Vox posted:
Talking about NK weapons capabilities is actually a bit more relevant to the thread than a lovely pop star, actuallly.
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Sep 3, 2016 01:56
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Psy is the future of Korea
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Sep 3, 2016 01:57
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Sucks to be them.
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Sep 3, 2016 03:27
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Ninkobei posted:Imagine knowing that you would be murdered for falling asleep and being always on-edge, but KJU being so boring that you fall asleep anyway. KJU is literally evil Jigglypuff.  
nelson fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Sep 4, 2016 |
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Sep 3, 2016 05:38
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Phlegmish posted:What is your source for this? And would this change in attitude be the result of increased access to outside information? The most recent source I've read talking about it (published in 2015) is North Korea Confidential. It argues that the reason for a growing sense of disenfranchisement is due to a few things, including a) spread of information and outside culture (primarily South Korean soap operas), b) the failure of the regime during the Arduous March (turns out that if you see hundreds of people dying around you, you kind of start to have some questions about how great your life really is), c) dissatisfaction with KJU, especially when compared to how beloved his father and grandfather were, and possibly most significantly d) the growing grey market (people are making their own money for the first time in living memory for many North Koreans, and many entrepreneurs are trading with Chinese or accessing foreign news sources to anticipate market trends, such as if a shipment of rice is coming in, which will cause prices to fall). Obviously it goes into a lot more detail than I have. It also has a lot of info about daily life in North Korea (from defectors and essentially whistleblowers still living in North Korea), so if that's a topic you're interested in, I'd definitely recommend it.
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Sep 4, 2016 12:37
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Whitlam posted:North Korea Confidential. Just ordered this - thanks.
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Sep 4, 2016 13:19
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Biggus Dickus posted:Just ordered this - thanks. No worries. I'd rate it up there with Nothing to Envy.
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Sep 4, 2016 14:04
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Popular Thug Drink posted:building nukes is hard, miniaturizing them is harder. north korea is a lot more isolated than pakistan ever was, making it difficult to build up the human expertise necessary to pull off such a complex project I don't really know where this idea that other countries show off their nuclear deterrant has come from. I've spent ages googling for photos of Pakistani or Indian warheads (as much as a photo proves anything), and I cannot find any. On the other hand, North Korea has provided such a photo:  (and before people start making jokes about disco balls, that's actually what atomic warheads look like.) Also, Pakistan uses North Korean missiles.
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Sep 4, 2016 22:50
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Going to give North Korea Confidential a try myself.
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Sep 4, 2016 22:54
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mediadave posted:I don't really know where this idea that other countries show off their nuclear deterrant has come from. I've spent ages googling for photos of Pakistani or Indian warheads (as much as a photo proves anything), and I cannot find any. On the other hand, North Korea has provided such a photo: Here's a picture of one of India's nuclear warheads, taken before a test was done using it, which was published by India itself: 
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Sep 4, 2016 23:01
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bruce cumings and hazel smith are respected academics who've written extensively on the dprk so if people are looking for resources i'd recommend them highly
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Sep 5, 2016 00:44
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mediadave posted:Also, Pakistan uses North Korean missiles. And North Korea, of course, uses Pakistani nuclear tech. Thank you, A.Q. Khan.
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Sep 5, 2016 01:14
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lol, bruce cumings is a big moron.
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Sep 5, 2016 02:54
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fishmech posted:Here's a picture of one of India's nuclear warheads, taken before a test was done using it, which was published by India itself: Pretty sure he means the physics package, there's plenty of pictures of bomb shaped things that probably have a nuclear weapon inside on the internet.
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Sep 5, 2016 03:01
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mediadave posted:I don't really know where this idea that other countries show off their nuclear deterrant has come from. I've spent ages googling for photos of Pakistani or Indian warheads (as much as a photo proves anything), and I cannot find any. On the other hand, North Korea has provided such a photo: For this point, you don't need to look any farther than Israel, which refuses to officially confirm or deny that it does or does not have nuclear weapons (but everyone knows it does). They don't say anything about their nuclear deterrent or even claim that they have one; just coyly dancing around the subject is enough.
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Sep 5, 2016 04:47
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Homework Explainer posted:bruce cumings Hadn't heard of this guy, then I read this review, now I have the book reserved at the local library, because it sounds really funny.
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Sep 5, 2016 05:09
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Jack of Hearts posted:Hadn't heard of this guy, then I read this review, now I have the book reserved at the local library, because it sounds really funny. unsurprising he'd get that kind of review. if you actually read it he isn't sunny on the dprk at all and has plenty of condemnation for the kims. but anything that even whiffs of heterodoxy re: north korea is sure to receive that sort of response in the press
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Sep 5, 2016 06:45
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Main Paineframe posted:For this point, you don't need to look any farther than Israel, which refuses to officially confirm or deny that it does or does not have nuclear weapons (but everyone knows it does). They don't say anything about their nuclear deterrent or even claim that they have one; just coyly dancing around the subject is enough. Didn't they do a measurable weapons test in the Negev, though? Or am I misremembering?
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Sep 5, 2016 07:27
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misremembering. If they had, it would have been global news instantly.
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Sep 5, 2016 12:45
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Tias posted:Didn't they do a measurable weapons test in the Negev, though? Or am I misremembering? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_Incident 
I would blow Dane Cook fucked around with this message at 13:37 on Sep 5, 2016 |
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Sep 5, 2016 13:32
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